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7/29/2019 The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World: Evolving Relations with Russia, China, India, and Brazil
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Mediterranean PaPer SerieS 2013
the Mediterranean region
in a MultiPolar World
evolving relationS With ruSSia, China,india, and Brazil
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2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
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gMF Pp Ss
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German
Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
ab gMF
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and
global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-
tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,
by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-
cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-prot organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to
Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in
Washington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also has
smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.
ab M Pcy Pm
Te Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe, North
Arica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;
exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-
ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic
cooperation on Mediterranean strategy.
ab is aff i
Te Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI), ounded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, does research in the elds o oreign policy,political economics, and international security. A non-prot organization, the IAI aims to d isseminate knowledge through
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puts out an English-language quarterly (Te International Spectator), an online webzine (AfarInternazionali), a series o
research papers (Quaderni IAI) and an Italian oreign policy yearbook (La Politica Estera dellItalia).
Cover photo: Brazilian President Dilma Rousse (ront L), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (ront C), Chinese Presi-
dent Hu Jintao (ront R), Indian Prime Minster Manmohan Singh (back L) and South Arican President Jacob Zuma (back
R, unseen) walk prior to posing or a picture during the BRICS summit in New Delhi, India, March 29, 2012.
EKAERINA SHUKINA / RIA NOVOSI / KREMLIN POOL/epa/Corbis
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World
Evolving Relations with Russia, China, India, and Brazil
Mediterranean Paper Series
february 2013
V Bk, A C, L G,D H,4 P.R. K5
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S R F, C I I S (CIIS), Bj.
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World iii
ForewordDaniela Huber
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The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesiv
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The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesvi
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 1
Russia: Returning to a Stable PresenceVladimir Bakhtin1
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2 S Vd I. Gv, Pos-Sove Russs Ecooc Tesw e Ab Wo( R), Mw, I f OSd f h R Admy f S/I f Id Mdd E Sd, 1997, pp. 34-35, hp://www.m.//k/1997//97_1.zp.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
x E M C I S (CIS);
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Key Security Issues for Russia in
the South Mediterranean Area
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 3
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 5
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
The Impact of the Arab Spring
The political reaction of Moscow to the events
in Tunisia and Egypt can be characterized by the
words of Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey
Lavrov: no one can make an accurate prediction.
He called those events an expected surprise. It was
expected because the problems had been piling
up for many years, first of all social and economic
problems [] The ruling regimes that in many
countries had ruled the state for decades and hadacquired considerable experience, must have ceased
to realize what was really going on in the country
and what the population actually felt.20
While highlighting the need to stop violence and
restore peace and stability in Tunisia and Egypt,
Russia welcomed the parliamentary election in
Tunisia in October 2011, which the Ennahdha
party won, and the presidential election, which
brought in Moncef Marzouki as the new head of
state. Similarly in Egypt, Russia readily interacted
with Egypts Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
and the countrys politicians, including probable
candidates for the presidency. Later on, Russia
20 See the interview of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovwith V. Solovyov, 3channel, March 13, 2011 (in Russian), http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/Brp_4.nsf/arh/E35AC8110082ABCB-C3257852004AF20E.
recognizedthat the
parliamentary
and presidential
election results
revealed the rise
of political Islam
Russia supports
the democratic
choice of the
people of Tunisia
and Egypt and is
willing to deepen
cooperation with
these countries.
The fall of authoritarian regimes and an increasing
proportion of Islamists in power should not be and
is not considered an impediment for furthering
fruitful collaboration with traditionally friendly
states. Rather there is a lot of space for improving
and expanding interaction with these countries as
long as moderate political Islam does not become
radical and as long as North African radicalism
does not spill over into Russia and its neighboringstates.
On the other hand, the Arab revolts, particularly
events in Libya, caused serious economic damage
to Russia. In 2008, the Russian Railroads Company
(RZD) had begun building a 500 kilometer railroad
between Sirte and Benghazi, linking these cities to
Egypt and Tunisia (the total value of the project
stood at 2.2 billion; 70 percent of the equipment
required would be acquired in Russia). RZD had
almost completed the preparatory work when the
military conflict broke out and the construction
had to be halted.21 In addition, the benefits that
Russia obtained by writing off Libyas debt of $4.5
billion were negated.
21 Svetlana Subbotina, RZD May Get Back to Building Rail-roads in Libya (in Russian), Life News online, November 10,2011, http://lifenews.ru/news/74273.
Graph 1. Total Trade of Russia with the Mediterranean Region
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 7
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
R A .5
Future Challenges for Russian Foreign Policy
in the Southern Mediterranean
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 9
E E .M , , I . D M I.A M G, A A I , A k .
O , x M, k , x .
T, k . T , j
T, E, L. I S , A B -A k. T, Tk k M .
W , R k M . T R
S Y Y. Sk, R d t Mdd Et(R), ., . 96; Ak D. E, I cg t v
I: T A Spg d t Ipct t J Stt ( R), M, I M E S, .
S A V. K, J V. Zk, A.S. K(.), St Mtg G d Rg Rk: T ASpg 2011 ( R), M, LKI, , . 4.
S Vk M. S Sk N. Sk, TM E S N R C ( R),P Ptc Std, N. , , . 47-6.
P D M 7, , O R F , x R F - , , q k. I , k k R , R
.
T A R. W A S R , I S CIS.T C A. T E T k C A
. O , j k N A, , , , x , .O , -S N A .F, E T EU E.S, C A ( Tjk K)
N A. N, O Dj-A (K)
T ://.k.//764.
http://eng.kremlin.ru/acts/3764http://eng.kremlin.ru/acts/3764http://eng.kremlin.ru/acts/3764http://eng.kremlin.ru/acts/3764 -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
.4
F , R x A S , , A S CA .
T R - M . R M . T I- R , x, M R x I. A , RM F A OIC L A S GC C (GCC).
Conclusions
I M W W II. I x U S, E U, BRICS. R, P V P M F A S L, k
4 S Ak D, T L M D, R G A, V. 9, N. , A-J , ://.-.//T-L-M--D-544.
x UN. TM R W k . B, , A S.R U S x M , x
S I M E Q.
I , .R, , , . I T E . T
, M . C j k NS k , SS A B.
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 11
F , C M . D
C A k, , , , , , . S x .
T C ,, AS . B, , S E M C.G, C WA N A (WANA) , , C E , M E. T ME A
L ( P) -A, I, I, Tk. S A , C A .I , WANA (P) G , x G CC (GCC), I, Iq, S EM .
Chinas Evolving Economic, Security, and
Political Interests in the RegionC WANA , , C . C M E, k
. S 99, C ME . A , M E C . T, , C ME .
S, C . T M E C , $68.9 , -- 6.5.5 M .
T : C , , , x,
C W C, Xj. F , E TkO
k, , , Xj. T , , -Q, S . B WANA ,C C k k .
F, C k j , W P. A
5 C X, T S S C - C WANA ( C),Xt,A 6, , ://.x.//-4/6/_96977_..
2China: An Emerging Power in the MediterraneanLi Guofu
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
R O 978, C k , k. I , C WD S , . A , Nx H AR C (Nx)I F I T
SA E T F (CAETF) . T j Nx M k A . CAETF Nx , A .F, Xj C EA Ex . G , Xj k x . E
M E C .
C A. I J 4, A L, C A CA S CF (CASCF), C A x , ,
, , .
E - j, CASCF CA .I ,
. I , C A L , $6.7 4 $ , .6
The Impact of the Arab Spring
T A S, MENA ,
. C, , - , A . H,C , . C ,
.
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. C P M WJ V P X J S A, Q, U.A.E.,
6 C X, C R AC,Ajz, M , , ://../_/5/5/_5_9789..
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 13
Tk. S , E,S S, M, Iq Tk, U.A.E. C. I , , A .T C . F, M ,, CASCF M C T. D , Y J, C , - k
A , x . F, -- . A , , C A ; 8, A C, 5 C A .
G , A S
, C, L, S,P/I, E .
Chinas Policy toward Libya
C L 978. A , k, . L , CM G, C 98. T
, , , $.78 , 57.7 .7T C x L
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R 97, - L. H,C NATO - L.
D , C , . A , J , C L N T C (NTC) M J Bj x L . I J, C X, D G D WA N A A M F A, B k . W
, C j L. I S , C V FM Z J I C F L P. O , Z k NTC . H C
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
L L C k C L. J, , C , x C k C L.
O S , C L L. I , Y J k L U N - L N Yk.O O 8, W W, C L, T.
C - L. I J , ZM, , A B K, L FM, AU
E. Z x BK C k - L. I F, k M C L. T C- j , C - .
B , C L j,
, ,, , , , . A , C $8
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I J , k LF M, C V P XJ C k L . B K x C L k. H C L C .
P- L , L . T C
L. S , C - L. C , , L , L .
Chinas Policy toward Syria
A 956, C S . S M , C
8 H W, T I I L W( C),A & Ac Rv, V. 6, , . -7, ://k..//578556786..
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 15
S. I L , C, R, UN S C O F , , S . B , C S W . C, , S. I S
, $.45 .9
C S - . F , C , , k, C U N, , S ,, . C
k - . T C j .S, C S M E - S , k .
I , C
9 C M F A, C Rt tS ( C), D , ://.../_/jq_694/j_696/_698/6_648/x_6484.
S, . S , C S , N F DC N C B, S N C
C . C S, $
I C R C (ICRC).
F, C M Y J - UNAL J S E Lk B S S k , ,
q, , x .
C, - , , S , B. R , x , x , , . S, S , B , , ,
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
S . T ,, , S . T, k B k q G AG S, K A x- , S C . T A L
. F, k S. T S S S. T S
k U N -
. A , .
I , C S - S
.
Chinas Position on Palestine/Israel
C P P L O (PLO) S P. I M 965, PLO
Bj. I N 988, C S P PS. C P , C P , 967 -, E J . C P U N UNESCO.
C I 99. A , $5 , $ , .4 E C I.
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-
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 17
MENA . A UNS C, C M E . I , C AW Sj C M E P I. T , M EQ. A k , C
. I O , W Sk, CM E , I P W Bk k I P.
R I , I .H, q I x
I. I I M E , k I . I . A I, k, , q I, . T I x, k I .
C - , M E.A N-P T(NPT), I
NPT- .I k , , I A EA (IAEA), .C I 5+ I, , -, .
Chinas Policy toward Egypt
C E M 956. T C E A A C, A A . T, C C.C E . W j ,C E . I A 999, C E
- . O , E A A C .
I , , x . E C A. I ,
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
EP H Mk, Z J, C , C. D k E D P M Y-J F M N E, Z, C E , M E j . Z, C, E.I , E C C
E , . I M, C FM Y J E k E , G MH T, SC A F. B k .
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I k, C C E E .I , P M C , , .T E x k C E . H x x C C. I
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.
Conclusions
T A , , , I .T, ,
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 19
, .
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C A .
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
-
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 21
I k M E, M -. I
ME, A P , I, j I . I , B 7 . T B P G , ,
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3India: Overcoming the Distant DilemmaPR Kumaraswamy
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
AI I.44
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M ,I I . T k IP, I P. T P k I. I,I I. I , , , P , I I. B
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 23
B S I . H, , q x .
S C W, U S, k M, I . W I I, L I. T k L -99 -Q I L.
The Impact of the Arab Spring
I x x , , A , A S. I
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
I F M Mk .
T L .I k 7,, I T T.W A S L -, I, - U N S C(UNSC), k . B , AL A U -G . S F I, E U L. T L IC C (ICC) .
R L ICC I x ICC. Y, I
L. H, ICC, F 6, , I j UNSC L ICC. T UNSCR 97, - . T q NATO T . D , U.S. Iq UNSC R 44,I UNSC R 97, G L.
T S E L. A E, S A. H, k E, . T S A B -A . T q S A .
H, S , I. T x , , I -. F, I S B . A -967 M E S- , B Iq S I
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T , I , x k L x, W x
UNSC R 97 - L, , T. I D UN. T, ,
-
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 25
UNSC x . T W R C, I N D W.
A , I - A R C . S S .T
, I A k . A UNSC , A , S A B, I - UNSC D k . B S k k , I . S, J , I
S, UNSC S C R, . T UNSC R C A k U N G A (UNGA).T N D PA , S- ,
. A B S A, I, , S . T q , I
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Broader Political Vision
W C R ,I . T I M . T U.S.-k . I
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U S I k.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
A, R C M E. T,U.S. I .
A , I W, U S, M . I x U.S. . A Mx, I k C R, UNSC. F, I . I L S. A , I k BRIC -- ; - , I . O x -, I
, C.I , , I q .
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, . D , x, E, S, L . A , , G .
-
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 27
A
, F Hq C , B
A M E N A.5W P L I L S . I , , , ,
x, , ,, , A , S A AC S (Cp d Ac d S P , ASPA), P L 5. T S k D 9 L .5
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M E N A? T B A , j
5 R B A , A , L A k C (995-), U S .A , x , .
5 H , j B A . T A B 7 A L . T A B Y,B, Dj, C, S. B A L ( E, V, I), .
. T A , B P I k M E . T S E M, M E, J, L, S, O P T, S I. H, A , A L. I ,S A G
B M F A(Itt) k , , S E M.
The International Dimension
T B , L P (Ptd dTd, PT), , PC (995-) ,
, P L , .5 I , : B , k B , , S-S .5
5 S P R A, A L: , P x, V. , N. , D-J , . 96, ://../5DPRA/44DELBRPEx..
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4Brazil: Newcomer to the Region
Arlene Clemesha
http://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdfhttp://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdfhttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdfhttp://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdf -
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
T . R B , B F M,C A, :
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56 I D , L B A . H, B . I 98, , P J B F A A . L , E D P II, B 84
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57 N M, O B , HqA O, A C L (.), Rtc d B: t gd, V. , S P,S, 6, . 5.
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 29
.58
N , , B .59T B A. T L, Iq (M ). T U.S.- UN . M B
A
[t] t t Bz d t AWd t pt-Cd W pd ttg t dt p T t pctd dc td d
ptc vc t d T cd,t t gg Cd pdtdt, cctzd -g cc t t Bz d t
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States30
I-Pq, OP T PA.
I , B UN , P -967 E J , P . I , B P -967 EJ , S A x C. I , B P UN, S A . B A C N 7. A I k G J 9, M F R C A $ , , G
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 31
, B S A A .65
T B A A B
B A -.T A- B, B 87. T , L S, E, P, Iq, . T B ,
, , .S A ,
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I , P AB C C (Cd Cc B, CCAB), S TS, B A .67 T B A 5 , $ , $5 , T .
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66 S A C, A I B, AJ C S, Bz: A Rg P LtAc, D, A J C S A SP, , ://.4.//Q6JKGk8/A___B_J..
67 Q A S, Ex A %,ANBA Bz-A N Agc, J , , ://.../_.k?=8777.
Description 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth
2005-
2011
2012(*)
Brazilian
exports
5.9 6.676 6.967 9.88 9.9 .575 5. 9.5% 9.6
Brazilian
imports
5.5 5.7 6.458 .48 5. 6.966 9.985 88.% 7.7
Total .54 .47 .45 .99 4.6 9.54 5.6 8.9% 7.9
Balance -96 .6 59 -66 4.69 5.69 5.47 -- .6
UAE 8 9886 874 75 55 86
Table 1 Commercial Flows between Brazil and Arab Countries 2005-2011 and 2012
(*Jan-Aug) (in US$ million)
S: M R Ex, I A S-P B-P , S , ://.../ARQUIVOS/IE/IASPA.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
. W 4.9 , A .4 J S , , k.
S k 5 B A , , , . B , S A G , E A. S E qk H Mk , $ , A $8 .
T A M B , Mq E, P, J,L, S k . T , x . A ,
A , , . I , A B C C, , A .
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, A B .
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A C S, S M E A, x. T C B ,68 F T A B k M E () P (), P T
A S J ().N F T A M G CC (GCC). I B S E M, q B .
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 33
T A , B M D, N J, I. B I ( ) I , E , B. I , B A k A G . D 99 ( 97 98,
B q, k, Iq).69
I F TA M. N 5 A S C , I L, S B JA 6. T I k S L B B . M B L
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The Impact of the Arab Spring
W A , DJ , D , B M F R k k . I S L, Itt
, B .
P D , B k I I SkA, . B .T B
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States34
- .
I L, L j C M G, , B , P, x L 5, L N O C(NOC).
D , B UNSC R 97, F
( , , M G k , IC C), L U N H R C.B, M 7, B G,C, I, R, UNSCR 97 - L.
B , -, B M F R A P ,
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The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 35
x . Sk B : T [] S, L, x k .75
A B - , , , D k L S. T k B, , .
I , B .T B 98 A ,
B E,T, Q.76 A P E M E PM M B O , .
Conclusions
T S E M B
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M E . B ASPA S, x, x. I k I IP .
T A S , B, 98 A . I I x I. I ,B , I, - I, S A Q, j I E ( J L P) T(E).
N, B , , S E M, x , .
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Off i c e s