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    Mediterranean PaPer SerieS 2013

    the Mediterranean region

    in a MultiPolar World

    evolving relationS With ruSSia, China,india, and Brazil

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    2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.

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    ab M Pcy Pm

    Te Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe, North

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    Cover photo: Brazilian President Dilma Rousse (ront L), Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (ront C), Chinese Presi-

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    R, unseen) walk prior to posing or a picture during the BRICS summit in New Delhi, India, March 29, 2012.

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World

    Evolving Relations with Russia, China, India, and Brazil

    Mediterranean Paper Series

    february 2013

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World iii

    ForewordDaniela Huber

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesiv

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesvi

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 1

    Russia: Returning to a Stable PresenceVladimir Bakhtin1

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States2

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 3

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States4

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 5

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States6

    The Impact of the Arab Spring

    The political reaction of Moscow to the events

    in Tunisia and Egypt can be characterized by the

    words of Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey

    Lavrov: no one can make an accurate prediction.

    He called those events an expected surprise. It was

    expected because the problems had been piling

    up for many years, first of all social and economic

    problems [] The ruling regimes that in many

    countries had ruled the state for decades and hadacquired considerable experience, must have ceased

    to realize what was really going on in the country

    and what the population actually felt.20

    While highlighting the need to stop violence and

    restore peace and stability in Tunisia and Egypt,

    Russia welcomed the parliamentary election in

    Tunisia in October 2011, which the Ennahdha

    party won, and the presidential election, which

    brought in Moncef Marzouki as the new head of

    state. Similarly in Egypt, Russia readily interacted

    with Egypts Supreme Council of the Armed Forces

    and the countrys politicians, including probable

    candidates for the presidency. Later on, Russia

    20 See the interview of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovwith V. Solovyov, 3channel, March 13, 2011 (in Russian), http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/Brp_4.nsf/arh/E35AC8110082ABCB-C3257852004AF20E.

    recognizedthat the

    parliamentary

    and presidential

    election results

    revealed the rise

    of political Islam

    Russia supports

    the democratic

    choice of the

    people of Tunisia

    and Egypt and is

    willing to deepen

    cooperation with

    these countries.

    The fall of authoritarian regimes and an increasing

    proportion of Islamists in power should not be and

    is not considered an impediment for furthering

    fruitful collaboration with traditionally friendly

    states. Rather there is a lot of space for improving

    and expanding interaction with these countries as

    long as moderate political Islam does not become

    radical and as long as North African radicalism

    does not spill over into Russia and its neighboringstates.

    On the other hand, the Arab revolts, particularly

    events in Libya, caused serious economic damage

    to Russia. In 2008, the Russian Railroads Company

    (RZD) had begun building a 500 kilometer railroad

    between Sirte and Benghazi, linking these cities to

    Egypt and Tunisia (the total value of the project

    stood at 2.2 billion; 70 percent of the equipment

    required would be acquired in Russia). RZD had

    almost completed the preparatory work when the

    military conflict broke out and the construction

    had to be halted.21 In addition, the benefits that

    Russia obtained by writing off Libyas debt of $4.5

    billion were negated.

    21 Svetlana Subbotina, RZD May Get Back to Building Rail-roads in Libya (in Russian), Life News online, November 10,2011, http://lifenews.ru/news/74273.

    Graph 1. Total Trade of Russia with the Mediterranean Region

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 7

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States8

    R A .5

    Future Challenges for Russian Foreign Policy

    in the Southern Mediterranean

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 9

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States10

    .4

    F , R x A S , , A S CA .

    T R - M . R M . T I- R , x, M R x I. A , RM F A OIC L A S GC C (GCC).

    Conclusions

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 11

    F , C M . D

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    Political Interests in the RegionC WANA , , C . C M E, k

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    2China: An Emerging Power in the MediterraneanLi Guofu

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States12

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 13

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States14

    L L C k C L. J, , C , x C k C L.

    O S , C L L. I , Y J k L U N - L N Yk.O O 8, W W, C L, T.

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    Chinas Policy toward Syria

    A 956, C S . S M , C

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 15

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States16

    S . T ,, , S . T, k B k q G AG S, K A x- , S C . T A L

    . F, k S. T S S S. T S

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    C P P L O (PLO) S P. I M 965, PLO

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 17

    MENA . A UNS C, C M E . I , C AW Sj C M E P I. T , M EQ. A k , C

    . I O , W Sk, CM E , I P W Bk k I P.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States18

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 19

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States20

  • 7/29/2019 The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World: Evolving Relations with Russia, China, India, and Brazil

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 21

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    3India: Overcoming the Distant DilemmaPR Kumaraswamy

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 23

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States24

    I F M Mk .

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 25

    UNSC x . T W R C, I N D W.

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States26

    A, R C M E. T,U.S. I .

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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 27

    A

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    x, , ,, , A , S A AC S (Cp d Ac d S P , ASPA), P L 5. T S k D 9 L .5

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    4Brazil: Newcomer to the Region

    Arlene Clemesha

    http://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdfhttp://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdfhttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252012000400018&script=sci_arttexthttp://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdfhttp://www.pralmeida.org/05DocsPRA/2344DiplomEraLulaBalRevPolitcaExterna.pdf
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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States28

    T . R B , B F M,C A, :

    T pt vdc tt p ctg dtd, g ctv c tkd g tt T t t t c t tgt, t t ct t c p dtd d : tt cgt v t ct d, tt,t c vt T g dvpgct Bz, C, Id, St Ac,Id, Mxc, Egpt, Tk, g t t t ptt p t

    pt-Cd W pd54

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    57 N M, O B , HqA O, A C L (.), Rtc d B: t gd, V. , S P,S, 6, . 5.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300013http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300013http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000200009http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000200009http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000200009http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000200009http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300013http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292010000300013
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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 29

    .58

    N , , B .59T B A. T L, Iq (M ). T U.S.- UN . M B

    A

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    T , B I I , J 6 L, J9 k G, Mv M, , E UN P , B

    I . I , , , . T I M 7 B ( ). F M A P I O I FM A L, P SP, P M Bj N x

    6 B A J , B .

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States30

    I-Pq, OP T PA.

    I , B UN , P -967 E J , P . I , B P -967 EJ , S A x C. I , B P UN, S A . B A C N 7. A I k G J 9, M F R C A $ , , G

    W Bk. I B G U N. B H PLO P . H, B H . I H PLO,B .

    B T. I k I , I A EA (IAEA). I , L Tk, B I - Tk , E U S ; U.S.

    C .W D R , B I

    I.

    F, A,6 B M W A.M B A , W A, S A.S , B M AD, M M A M F x , , .64

    The Domestic Dimension

    W ASPA S

    ( S 5), I I k . A B M F R, AP, S A A . B B S A , : T, M

    6

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    64 F , M R Ex, Ddc pcp dcd cc-cc Mc, S , ://.../ARQUIVOS/IE/INDM..

    http://www.gmfus.org/archives/moroccos-new-geopolitics-a-wider-atlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/moroccos-new-geopolitics-a-wider-atlantic-perspectivehttp://www.brasilglobalnet.gov.br/ARQUIVOS/IndicadoresEconomicos/INDMarrocos.pdfhttp://www.brasilglobalnet.gov.br/ARQUIVOS/IndicadoresEconomicos/INDMarrocos.pdfhttp://www.brasilglobalnet.gov.br/ARQUIVOS/IndicadoresEconomicos/INDMarrocos.pdfhttp://www.brasilglobalnet.gov.br/ARQUIVOS/IndicadoresEconomicos/INDMarrocos.pdfhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/moroccos-new-geopolitics-a-wider-atlantic-perspectivehttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/moroccos-new-geopolitics-a-wider-atlantic-perspective
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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 31

    , B S A A .65

    T B A A B

    B A -.T A- B, B 87. T , L S, E, P, Iq, . T B ,

    , , .S A ,

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    A-B, B A .66 F, A-BC C 6- , A L, .

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    I , P AB C C (Cd Cc B, CCAB), S TS, B A .67 T B A 5 , $ , $5 , T .

    F , B

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    Description 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth

    2005-

    2011

    2012(*)

    Brazilian

    exports

    5.9 6.676 6.967 9.88 9.9 .575 5. 9.5% 9.6

    Brazilian

    imports

    5.5 5.7 6.458 .48 5. 6.966 9.985 88.% 7.7

    Total .54 .47 .45 .99 4.6 9.54 5.6 8.9% 7.9

    Balance -96 .6 59 -66 4.69 5.69 5.47 -- .6

    UAE 8 9886 874 75 55 86

    Table 1 Commercial Flows between Brazil and Arab Countries 2005-2011 and 2012

    (*Jan-Aug) (in US$ million)

    S: M R Ex, I A S-P B-P , S , ://.../ARQUIVOS/IE/IASPA.

    http://www.cebri.org/midia/documentos/patriota_e_ouro_preto_-_politica_externa_20-01.pdfhttp://www.cebri.org/midia/documentos/patriota_e_ouro_preto_-_politica_externa_20-01.pdfhttp://www.4shared.com/office/Q6JKoGk8/Arab_immigration_to_Brazil_Jan.htmlhttp://www.4shared.com/office/Q6JKoGk8/Arab_immigration_to_Brazil_Jan.htmlhttp://www2.anba.com.br/noticia_corrente.kmf?cod=13028777http://www2.anba.com.br/noticia_corrente.kmf?cod=13028777http://www.brasilglobalnet.gov.br/ARQUIVOS/IndicadoresEconomicos/IntercAmericaSulPaisesArabes.pdfhttp://www.brasilglobalnet.gov.br/ARQUIVOS/IndicadoresEconomicos/IntercAmericaSulPaisesArabes.pdfhttp://www2.anba.com.br/noticia_corrente.kmf?cod=13028777http://www2.anba.com.br/noticia_corrente.kmf?cod=13028777http://www.4shared.com/office/Q6JKoGk8/Arab_immigration_to_Brazil_Jan.htmlhttp://www.4shared.com/office/Q6JKoGk8/Arab_immigration_to_Brazil_Jan.htmlhttp://www.cebri.org/midia/documentos/patriota_e_ouro_preto_-_politica_externa_20-01.pdfhttp://www.cebri.org/midia/documentos/patriota_e_ouro_preto_-_politica_externa_20-01.pdf
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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States32

    . W 4.9 , A .4 J S , , k.

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    http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292012000100010http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292012000100010http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292012000100010http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-73292012000100010
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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 33

    T A , B M D, N J, I. B I ( ) I , E , B. I , B A k A G . D 99 ( 97 98,

    B q, k, Iq).69

    I F TA M. N 5 A S C , I L, S B JA 6. T I k S L B B . M B L

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    69

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    The Impact of the Arab Spring

    W A , DJ , D , B M F R k k . I S L, Itt

    , B .

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    The German Marshall Fund of the United States34

    - .

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    D , B UNSC R 97, F

    ( , , M G k , IC C), L U N H R C.B, M 7, B G,C, I, R, UNSCR 97 - L.

    B , -, B M F R A P ,

    dg t dtt [] t Av td g g ct

    t tt: t pp vt t Mdd Et d Nt Ac v pt d c T ccd tt t t c tg gt t tt tv72

    P D, L, -

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    H, U N H RC (UNHRC), B -A . F, N ,, M P B k U N S, , UN Nt Ct OpptFc d t S Rvt, D.

    T , Itt A . T

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    7

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    74 T B F M A P , A B, - B.S A A P, T M , ., 4.

    http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/56029-oriente-medio-itamaraty-sem-estrategia.shtmlhttp://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/56029-oriente-medio-itamaraty-sem-estrategia.shtmlhttp://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/56029-oriente-medio-itamaraty-sem-estrategia.shtmlhttp://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/56029-oriente-medio-itamaraty-sem-estrategia.shtmlhttp://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/56029-oriente-medio-itamaraty-sem-estrategia.shtmlhttp://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/opiniao/56029-oriente-medio-itamaraty-sem-estrategia.shtml
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    The Mediterranean Region in a Multipolar World 35

    x . Sk B : T [] S, L, x k .75

    A B - , , , D k L S. T k B, , .

    I , B .T B 98 A ,

    B E,T, Q.76 A P E M E PM M B O , .

    Conclusions

    T S E M B

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    T A S , B, 98 A . I I x I. I ,B , I, - I, S A Q, j I E ( J L P) T(E).

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    Off i c e s