The Media and The Future

April 30, 2013

Opportunities to discuss course content

• Today 11-2

• Wednesday 10-2

Learning Objectives

• Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

Readings

• Chapter 3: Partisan Change (72-87) (Flanigan)

• On Reserve: McCutcheon, Chuck. The Elections of 2012: Outcomes and Analysis. “Lessons Learned from the 2012 Elections” pp 41-42

Horse Racing Today

• It Once was the Sport of Kings

• The Running of the Urinals

PAID MEDIA IN 2012

Paid Media

• Unmediated

• Control the Message

• More outlets than ever

A Record Breaking Year

• 1 million ads were aired

• Both Sides were overwhelmingly negative

• Obama Spent more and Ran More Ads

• The Best Ads

Herman Cain Bizarre Ads

• The Rabbit

• Smoking

Targeting Ads and their Effect

• Uncommitted voters vs Partisans

• When are they Most Effective?

• Ads are a sign of political viability

Candidate Credibility

• We have to trust the messenger

• Issue Ownership

• Try to focus on your best issue

Getting More Votes

• Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing)

• Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)

Biographical Ads

• Inform us about the Candidate

• Very important early in the campaign

• Obama doesn’t need to run these….

Issue Ads

• Focus on a specific issue or a policy area

• Associate yourself with favorable policies

• Do not mention issue weakness

Examples of Issue Ads

• The Bear in the Woods in 1984

• Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris...

• Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue Ad

Attack Ads

• The Norm Rather than the Exception

• The Mother of all Attack Ads

The Effect of Attack ads on voters

• Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected

• Your Base Loves them!

How Effective are these

• If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them

• The Lessons of 1988– The Revolving Door

– Willie Horton

Why They Work and Who uses them more

• We don’t trust politicians

• They are more memorable and informative

• Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them

How To Deal with them

• Defend the Charges

• Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy Ad

• Attack the Credibility of your opponent

How not to deal with them

• Do Nothing

• If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back

How the attack can backfire

• If you are seen as being too evil

Ads Can Backfire

• You Do it too Early…. The Lesson from 2012

• You do it too late to make a difference

• You bring a knife to a gun fight

The New Media

• Innovative in 2008

• Candidates had a lot to like

• They didn’t like the anarchy

Social Media in 2012

• No new Innovations

• Obama Retains the social media advantage

• More Control

• More negative

You have No Friends on Social Media

Changes for the Future

THE ELECTORAL COLLEGEIt will Survive

Why No Change

• To Difficult to Amend the Constitution

• The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

The Map Favors the Democrats

District Plan

• Maine and Nebraska use this system

• Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives

• Could pass without an amendment

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

• Would provide a back door to 538

• Popular after 2000

• Momentum has Slowed

• Now largely partisan

Why No Change

• Institutional Difficulties

• More hits than Misses

• Unanticipated Consequences

WHAT OF THE PRIMARIES AND CONVENTIONS

The Republicans

• Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules

• Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules

• Will Reevaluate for 2016

The Conventions

• The late convention is no longer a financial positive

• Low Ratings, Low Excitement

• 3 Days and earlier Dates

Big Money

• Outcome

• Corporations have stayed quiet

• Develop new strategies

• Big $ likely to stay

WAS 2012 PART OF A REALIGNMENT?

Short Term Deviations

• Congressional Elections

• Weaker partisan ties

• Poor challengers

• These can result in a landslide for one party

REALIGNMENTSHow To Wreck a Party

What is a Realignment

• A Durable shift in voting Patterns

• The New Party Kills the Old

• Majority Parties become minorities

Who Switches in a Realignment

• Hard Cores do not switch

• Independents do

• New Voters

• Weak partisans become strong Partisans

What Causes a Realignment

• Economic or social crisis

• Failure of the party to interpret change

• A changed electorate

The Policy Implications

• A mandate for change

• Major New Policies

• Continued electoral success

Options for the Losers

• Ignore the issue

• Try to absorb it

• Change

A THEORY OF CRITICAL ELECTIONSGood Times

Kinds of Realignments

• Secular Realignments- happen over time

• Regional Realignments

• Critical Elections

Maintaining Deviating

Converting Realigning

same

change

VICTORY Defeat

Types of Election

Majority Party

A Realigning Election

• The Actual Critical Election– 1800– 1860– 1896– 1930

• High Intensity

• High Turnout

A Maintaining Election

• A boring election

• The party in power remains in power

• 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

Deviating Election

• The Out party does well

• No shift in long term partisanship

• Caused by short-term factors

• 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

Converting Election

• The out party is gaining seats

• The precursor to a realignment (1930)

• The majority party keeps control.

WAS 2008-2012 A REALIGNMENT?

The Parties have been Competitive

Republicans• President- 72, 80, 84, 88

2000, 2004 (24 years)

• Senate- 1981-1986, 1995-2006 (18 years)

• House- 1995-2006, 2011-2015- 16 years

Democrats• President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12

(20 years)

• Senate- 1973-1980, 1989-1994, 2007-2015 (22 years)

• House- 1972-1994, 2007-2010 (26 years)

Supporters of A Realignment

• 2006

• 2008

• 2012

Does it meet the criteria?

Criteria

1. A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues

2. A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party

Criteria II

3. Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election

4. Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government

Criteria III

5. A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate

Realignments do not take vacations