The McCain Nomination in 2008The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule

Percentage of Primary Vote Number of Delegates

California McCain 42.3% 155 Romney 34.6% 15

Illinois McCain 47.5% 54 Romney 28.6% 3

New J ersey McCain 55.4% 52 Romney 28.3% 0

New York McCain 51.8% 87 Romney 25.4% 0

Oklahoma McCain 36.6% 32 Huckabee 33.4% 6 Romney 24.8% 0

Comparison of Super Tuesday 2008 & 2012

Super Tuesday - 2008 5th February

Alabama Arkansas Arizona California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Georgia Illinois Massachusetts Minnesota Missouri Montana North Dakota New Jersey New York Oklahoma Tennessee Utah West Virginia

Number of States: 20

Number of Delegates: 1081

Cumulative % of Delegates Selected by this Date: 55.17%

Super Tuesday - 2012 6th March

Georgia Idaho Massachusetts North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Tennessee Virginia Vermont

Number of States: 9

Number of Delegates: 466

Cumulative % of Delegates Selected by this Date: 35.48%

Republican Delegate Count to DateNeeded to Nominate: 1144

Soft* Total Hard Total Romney 435 (19.0%) 354 (15.0%) Santorum 197 (8.6%) 131 (5.7%) Gingrich 128 (5.6%) 107 (4.6%) Paul 74 (3.2%) 23 (1.0%) Uncommitted 73 (3.1%) * “Soft” total includes estimates made for the number of delegates gained in ‘caucus’ states where the delegate selection process is not yet completed.

Obama Polling Match-Ups

Obama (48.6%) - Mitt Romney (45.0%)

Obama (49.6%) - Rick Santorum (43.6%)

Obama (51.8%) - Newt Gingrich (40.0%)

Obama (49.5%) - Ron Paul (43.0%)

Sourced from Real Clear Politics average of five polls (Rasmussen, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Politico/George Washington University, USA Today/Gallup and Associated Press/Roper) taken between 16th February–10th March)

Electoral Vote in 2004 & 2008

270 Electoral Votes Required to Win

2004

George W. Bush 286

John Kerry 251 (-19)

2008

John McCain 173

Barack Obama 365 (+95)

The Kerry-Plus States

Colorado

Florida

Indiana

Iowa

Nevada

New Mexico

North Carolina

Ohio

Virginia

The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Electoral Vote)

Colorado 9

Florida 27

Indiana 11

Iowa 7

Nevada 5

New Mexico 5

North Carolina 15

Ohio 20

Virginia 13_____________________

Total 112

The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 and 2012 Electoral Vote)

2008 2012

Colorado 9 9

Florida 27 29 (+2)

Indiana 11 11

Iowa 7 6 (-1)

Nevada 5 6 (+1)

New Mexico 5 5

North Carolina 15 15

Ohio 20 18 (-2)

Virginia 13 13_______________________________

Total 112 112

Net Effect of Electoral College Redistribution

States Won By Obama in 2008-6

States Won By McCain in 2008+6

When applied to 2008 Electoral Vote ……

Obama 359

McCain 179

The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Margin of Victory and 2012 Electoral Vote)

EVs Margin Share of Vote

Colorado 9 8.9% 54.5%

Florida 29 2.8% 51.4%*

Indiana 11 1.3% 50.5%*

Iowa 6 9.5% 54.9%*

Nevada 6 12.5% 56.4%

New Mexico 5 15.3% 57.6%

North Carolina 15 0.3% 50.2%*

Ohio 18 4.6% 52.3%*

Virginia 13 6.3% 53.2%*_____________________________________________________Total 112 *Potential loss = 92 EVs

Obama – The Electoral College Maths

1. Needed to Win - 270 Electoral Votes

2. Total in 2008 – 365 Electoral Votes (95 in excess of 270)

3. Already lost 6 Electoral Votes from 2010 House of Representatives reapportionment.

4. Losses from six asterisked “Kerry-Plus” States

= 92 Electoral Votes

365 – 6 – 92 = 267 Electoral Votes