The McCain Nomination in 2008 The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule.
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Transcript of The McCain Nomination in 2008 The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule.
The McCain Nomination in 2008The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule
Percentage of Primary Vote Number of Delegates
California McCain 42.3% 155 Romney 34.6% 15
Illinois McCain 47.5% 54 Romney 28.6% 3
New J ersey McCain 55.4% 52 Romney 28.3% 0
New York McCain 51.8% 87 Romney 25.4% 0
Oklahoma McCain 36.6% 32 Huckabee 33.4% 6 Romney 24.8% 0
Comparison of Super Tuesday 2008 & 2012
Super Tuesday - 2008 5th February
Alabama Arkansas Arizona California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Georgia Illinois Massachusetts Minnesota Missouri Montana North Dakota New Jersey New York Oklahoma Tennessee Utah West Virginia
Number of States: 20
Number of Delegates: 1081
Cumulative % of Delegates Selected by this Date: 55.17%
Super Tuesday - 2012 6th March
Georgia Idaho Massachusetts North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Tennessee Virginia Vermont
Number of States: 9
Number of Delegates: 466
Cumulative % of Delegates Selected by this Date: 35.48%
Republican Delegate Count to DateNeeded to Nominate: 1144
Soft* Total Hard Total Romney 435 (19.0%) 354 (15.0%) Santorum 197 (8.6%) 131 (5.7%) Gingrich 128 (5.6%) 107 (4.6%) Paul 74 (3.2%) 23 (1.0%) Uncommitted 73 (3.1%) * “Soft” total includes estimates made for the number of delegates gained in ‘caucus’ states where the delegate selection process is not yet completed.
Obama Polling Match-Ups
Obama (48.6%) - Mitt Romney (45.0%)
Obama (49.6%) - Rick Santorum (43.6%)
Obama (51.8%) - Newt Gingrich (40.0%)
Obama (49.5%) - Ron Paul (43.0%)
Sourced from Real Clear Politics average of five polls (Rasmussen, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Politico/George Washington University, USA Today/Gallup and Associated Press/Roper) taken between 16th February–10th March)
Electoral Vote in 2004 & 2008
270 Electoral Votes Required to Win
2004
George W. Bush 286
John Kerry 251 (-19)
2008
John McCain 173
Barack Obama 365 (+95)
The Kerry-Plus States
Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Iowa
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Electoral Vote)
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Virginia 13_____________________
Total 112
The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 and 2012 Electoral Vote)
2008 2012
Colorado 9 9
Florida 27 29 (+2)
Indiana 11 11
Iowa 7 6 (-1)
Nevada 5 6 (+1)
New Mexico 5 5
North Carolina 15 15
Ohio 20 18 (-2)
Virginia 13 13_______________________________
Total 112 112
Net Effect of Electoral College Redistribution
States Won By Obama in 2008-6
States Won By McCain in 2008+6
When applied to 2008 Electoral Vote ……
Obama 359
McCain 179
The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Margin of Victory and 2012 Electoral Vote)
EVs Margin Share of Vote
Colorado 9 8.9% 54.5%
Florida 29 2.8% 51.4%*
Indiana 11 1.3% 50.5%*
Iowa 6 9.5% 54.9%*
Nevada 6 12.5% 56.4%
New Mexico 5 15.3% 57.6%
North Carolina 15 0.3% 50.2%*
Ohio 18 4.6% 52.3%*
Virginia 13 6.3% 53.2%*_____________________________________________________Total 112 *Potential loss = 92 EVs
Obama – The Electoral College Maths
1. Needed to Win - 270 Electoral Votes
2. Total in 2008 – 365 Electoral Votes (95 in excess of 270)
3. Already lost 6 Electoral Votes from 2010 House of Representatives reapportionment.
4. Losses from six asterisked “Kerry-Plus” States
= 92 Electoral Votes
365 – 6 – 92 = 267 Electoral Votes