The Mayor’s Outer London Commission:

Final Report

Purpose of the Outer London Commission

• find out the extent to which outer London has potential to contribute to the economic success of London as a whole,

• identify the factors which are holding it back from making that contribution, and

• make recommendations on policies and mechanisms which will enable it to do so.

…..and more particularly to:

•identify the scope to ‘grow’ the outer London economy on a sustainable basis: removing barriers to growth for competitive, established sectors and to attracting new ones

•explore the potential contribution of a few large ‘growth-hubs’ eg Stratford, Croydon, Brent Cross, Heathrow area

•secure the wider rejuvenation of outer London’s town centres and other business locations

•enhance the ‘quality of life’: business and residential environments

•examine the relationship between demographic, housing and economic growth

On the basis of existing evidence how much employment growth might be expected in Outer London?

Scenario 1: continuation of 1989 – 2006/7 historic trends in London employment and no change in outer London’s share of this = 4,600 more jobs pa (in context of 22,000 more jobs pa across London as a whole): a static view of how employment might change, taking no account of the changing importance of different sectors in the future

Scenario 2: 2008 London Plan forecast based on a triangulation of now dated historic trends, estimates of development capacity and improvements to public transport accessibility = 10,000 more jobs pa: takes account of changing relationships between different sectors but does not reflect the most up-to-date information on economic trends

Scenario 3: Oxford Economics 2009 forecast = 10,500 more jobs pa: an up-to-date, top-down, macro-economic view but does not reflect local infrastructure investment and development capacity

New London Plan forecast based on new employment, development capacity and public transport capacity data: work in progress….. But could be 6,000 – 8,000 more jobs pa, perhaps spread across almost all outer London boroughs.

Conclusion: forecasts taking account a range of factors all suggest growth above historic trend

Consultation Messages: Economy

•OL competes only to a limited degree with Inner London (IL) and much more directly with the Outer Metropolitan Area (OMA) •Concern that the “growth hub” concept could undermine and/or lead to neglect of other parts of outer London •Link a more ‘organic’ type of growth to an improving town centre network •Need to re-invent, re-brand and market parts of outer London and its distinct offers •Outer London needs to improve skills to reinforce its new offer, e.g. HE/FE •Potential for growth in “green” industries, creative industries, logistics, servicing the residential population, public sector & knowledge sectors •Must recognise the wider economic base of OL, seek to enhance its strengths and so provide greater economic resilience for London as a whole

Consultation Messages: Transport

•‘Outer London regions and boroughs have very different transport needs – there is not a “one size fits all” solution •Very strong concern to improve orbital connectivity •“Make it Sweat” - maximise the use of existing infrastructure with limited funds available •The car will continue to play an important role in outer London •Improve quality and connectivity of inter-changes, publicise orbital connectivity more clearly

Consultation Messages: Quality of Life

•Quality and affordable homes for families are needed to retain people •The character of the suburbs should not be lost due to economic and residential growth •Town centres need a mixture of jobs, shops and services to remain viable, including a managed night-time economy •Need a high quality public realm to compete with out of town shopping •Protection of the Green belt and green spaces should remain sacrosanct

Employment structure: different parts of outer London

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Northern London

Western London

South Western London

South Eastern London

Eastern London

Stansted Corridor

M1 Corridor

Wandle Valley

Western Wedge

Thames Gateway

Croydon

Heathrow

Financial services Professional services Creative activitiesGoods retail Leisure activities Schools and hospitalsLocal activities Passenger transport, freight and storage WholesaleManufacturing (excl publishing)

•Heathrow almost all transport, freight and storage jobs

•Outer urban areas: larger proportions in local activities, schools, hospitals

•Greatest shares of financial jobs in Croydon and SE

•Manufacturing most important to Thames Gateway

•Overall, greatest growth expected in office based jobs especially Business Services

Broad views on sources of future employment growth in outer London: ‘Endogenous’ or existing sources i.e. those which have contributed to the existing, underlying trends BUTwhich might perform more effectively if constraints on performance/ competitiveness are addressed. Testing being finalised on:

•Office based private sectors

•Retail

•Leisure/tourism

•Local/central government

•Other public sector eg health, security

•Industry/logistics

•Other sectors eg construction, media

•Residential based growth

•Commuting/reverse commuting – bringing more wealth to OL

PLUS

•Multiplier effects

Exogenous sources: either strategically significant step changes from endogenous sources OR strategically significant new sources of employment, if constraints can be removed on competitive attractions of OL - but must be realistic. Testing being finalised on:

•Central government – similar to Home office at Croydon

•Para-statal organisations eg EC related

•New national/wider regional transport investment eg High Speed Rail terminus

•‘Green’ industries – especially above the trend which might be expected from pro rata distribution of national growth

•New national/wider regional level HE, health, security

•Outer Metropolitan Area offices: a step change in London’s competitive position

PLUS

•Multiplier effects

New spatial structures considered by the Commission which might help realise the economic potential of outer London

(1) Super-hubs’: very large scale expansion of a few already successful business locations to develop their ‘greater than sub-regional offer’ to provide further agglomeration economies and to justify the substantial infrastructure investment necessary to support them, but without compromising existing business locations.

Rejected: private office demand on this scale unlikely; strong opposition from many stakeholders because compromise prospects of other business locations

Substantial Green Belt/MOL based urban extensions.

Rejected in principle: substantial development capacity and greater scope to make use of transport capacity within the urban envelope, BUT do consider if can be accomplished with no net loss of Green Belt/Metropolitan Open Land and has potential for significant growth.

Also, explore the economic potential of outer London’s farms and other uses compatible with open land designations.

New spatial structures considered by the Commission which might help realise the economic potential of outer London

(2) Strategic Outer London Development Centres: existing business and other locations with greater than sub regional reach in one or more strategic functions and particular attractions for ‘exogenous’ growth based on capacity to enhance existing strategic success

Support as a more realistic and viable type of hub - more appropriate to accommodating the scale and nature of growth likely to come forward, to minimise need to travel and to complement existing structures.

Recommend testing potential locations eg

•Leisure/tourism: Wembley/and parts of Greenwich/Richmond/ Hillingdon/Wandle

•Media: White City; Park Royal (media, food related);

•Logistics: parts of Bexley/B&D/Havering/ Hillingdon/Hounslow

•Other transport: Hillingdon/Royal Docks-City airport/Biggin Hill

•Strategic office: Croydon/Stratford

•HE/FE: Uxbridge/Kingston/Greenwich and possibly Croydon/Stratford/Romford

•Industry: Upper Lee Valley, Bexley Riverside

•Retail: Brent X

More generally, the development of outer London should be based upon a “star and cluster” approach making particular use of the existing town centre

network, and also recognising other strategic business locations

Source: Farrells

More effective existing spatial structures supported by the OLC

Town Centres

•A ‘constellation’ of the single most important business locations outside central London

•Focus on enhancing access to competitive choice of goods and services, especially by ‘sustainable modes

•Need for targeted regeneration – increase town centre residential density

Opportunity Areas and Areas of Intensification

•Support general concepts – scope for new Areas

•Need for greater certainty and coordination in LDA, HCA and other public investment

•Improve social and environmental infrastructure to secure their attractiveness as places to live and work

Industrial Land

•Secure capacity for relatively low value but essential functions

•More emphasis on quality especially access

•Explore economic role of farms within outer London

Growth Corridors: •Historically the potential of these has not been realised

•Need for much more active cross border working/coordination, especially on transport

•Practical joint planning arrangements

•Focus on the nodes within corridors not the spaces between

London’s Growth Corridors

Source: GLA

It may be possible to use higher education/further education institutions as a focus of regeneration . . .

Source: Farrells

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Demography and Housing

Demography and Housing

•Population growth should not be pursued just because it creates jobs, though coincidentally it does, even if residents work beyond outer London (230 new local jobs per 1000 new residents)

•Growth must be sensitive to the quality of local neighbourhoods

•Emphasis on ‘place shaping’, mixed use and capacity building at local level

•Greater recognition of needs of smaller households, but need for new affordable family housing

•Maintain and enhance outer London as a place to live for all ages

•Ring fence S106 contributions to accumulate investment

•Seek higher quality provision of housing across all tenures

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Economy

Offices

•Give appropriate recognition to strategic economic needs when considering local and environmental concerns

•Allow some development where greater economic potential exists

•Focus on most competitive locations for future growth

•Stronger reflection of potential for mixed use ‘swaps in competitive locations

Knowledge-based industries

•Clearly define ‘knowledge’, ‘media’, ‘creative’ based industries and specify how can best address specific needs

•Clarify whether OL suffers from a lack of e-infrastructure and whether public sector/planning can help address this

•Develop business support services for home-working

•More active public intervention may be required to develop science/innovation parks if viable markets can be identified – backed by long term brand management

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Economy

Offices

•Give appropriate recognition to strategic economic needs when considering local and environmental concerns

•Allow some development where greater economic potential exists

•Focus on most competitive locations for future growth

•Stronger reflection of potential for mixed use ‘swaps in competitive locations

Knowledge-based industries

•Clearly define ‘knowledge’, ‘media’, ‘creative’ based industries and specify how can best address specific needs

•Clarify whether OL suffers from a lack of e-infrastructure and whether public sector/planning can help address this

•Develop business support services for home-working

•More active public intervention may be required to develop science/innovation parks if viable markets can be identified – backed by long term brand management

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Economy

Leisure, Arts, Culture and Tourism

•Most funding for cultural facilities goes to central London, even though one third of the approximately 3,500 facilities are in outer London

•More positive marketing of outer London’s distinct attractions – especially where ‘clustered’

•More proactive approach to the ‘cultural quarter’ concept and outer London cultural assets to foster local regeneration

•More effective strategic and local coordination and marketing of accessible clusters of local outer London attractions

•Explore potential for very large scale commercial leisure with regional/national/international offer

•Positive promotion and tighter management of night time economy clusters

•Explore scope for rejuvenation of medium sized theatres eg art house movie function

London’s cultural facilities

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Transport

Broad Conclusions - OLC is charged with producing realistic recommendations

•Recognise TfL cannot make investment decisions without a strong business case – this has been a key OLC consideration

•The scale, massing, distribution and nature of outer London are critical to this

•The reality is that TfL and national transport budgets will be limited

•Investment in transport should be considered across the city region

•Outer London specific investments should not be neglected, recognising that it also it also benefits from pan London radial transport improvements

•The Commission support the approach set out in the MTS Statement of Intent for a more transparent, outcome focused method of assessing investment options for both TfL and the boroughs

•A high-speed contiguous orbital public transport system is unlikely to address outer London needs

•The ‘star and cluster’ concept offers a more effective and practical model to meet the constellation of business locations outlined above

“Star and cluster” approach

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Transport

•Car Parking •Parking policy is not a “one size fits” all inner London approach

•A blanket liberalization of parking policy across outer London would not be appropriate

•There may be a case for selective review of some aspects of parking policy in particular to rejuvenate the outer London office sector

•The most liberal outer London standard (1 space/100 sq m) is more than three times more stringent than neighbouring OMA (commonly 30 sq m)

•TfL advised to examine, taking account of possibility of graduating standards, apportionment of revised capacity to incentivise lower CO2 emitting vehicles, car sharing and car clubs and to accommodate disability parking as part of Travel Plans for new development

•Review town centre policies which appear to favour out-of-centre developments

•A much stronger commitment to introducing a level playing field with OMA on parking policy and out-of-centre development

•Explore the implications of a more liberal/flexible approach to parking policy in centres strategically identified as in particular need of regeneration

Other recommendations supported by the OLC: Labour Market

•Skills are a key challenge for London as a whole

•Outer London outperforms inner London at school-age

•Younger higher skilled workers from the rest of the UK and abroad are attracted to live and work in London

•Outer London residents enjoy higher rates of employment and lower rates of worklessness than inner London residents

•Skills investment driven by need (i.e. tackling priority issues, skills associated with Crossrail), not geography – concern that this may miss distinct skill needs of OL which not fall within broad metropolitan categories.

•The LDA move towards a commissioning approach will provide further opportunities for locally driven responses to the delivery of strategic outcomes

Summary OLC conclusions

•Outer London does have potential to contribute more strongly to growth of London and the wider city region – but this needs to be considered in terms of its residential and environmental as well as its economic functions

•Outer London is not homogeneous and requires specific spatial policies – and flexibility to apply them locally : ‘fuzzy’ boundaries

•Holistic approach needed – closer integration of strategic transport, economic development, spatial and other strategies and associated investment, as well as local plans including Community Strategies

•Constellation of centres/hubs is a sounder basis for fostering OL’s broadly based and varied contributions to London’s growth rather than a few very large scale growth hubs

•Improvements to connectivity and movement within regions is crucial – but realism needed over large scale investment capacity - considerable potential in smaller scale improvements

•OL competes with OL only to a limited degree, but much more directly with OMA

•Town centres need to become stronger focus for their communities

•Current residential patterns/densities considered a key component of quality of life – but need not be compromised by growth provided this is accommodated sensitively

•Effective mechanisms to ensure social infrastructure to support this growth and maintain QoL are essential

Purpose of the Recalled Outer London Commission

• Focus on a few key issues • Produce guidance to assist local implementation of strategic

policy

Key Issues For Guidance

• Measures and priorities to enhance the viability of:- - town centres - perhaps also other locations which have benefited less

from strategic infrastructure investment • Criteria for allocation of new Town Centres Renewal/Outer

London Fund • Car parking standards in town centres and other office locations • Strategic Outer London Development Centre concept • Dispersal of Government Offices from central London • Housing density and design

Anticipated Outcome of the Commission’s Recommendations

• Feed into the new Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG)

• SPG devolves from the Replacement London Plan

• Subject to consultation this summer

• Interim conclusions by early June

• Final recommendations later

Other Potential Mayoral Initiatives

• Enterprise Zone status for Royal Docks (potential as opportunity area)

• Mayoral Development Corporation(s) to promote strategic locations e.g.:-

i) Olympic Legacy

ii) North East London corridor

Allocation Criteria Considerations

• Which areas receive least benefit from Crossrail & the Olympics • Assess how regeneration schemes contribute to the Mayor’s aims • Prioritisation of criteria • Practicality of criteria • Issues regarding Fund administration • Resource Issues (bidding criteria?) • Speed of implementation

Potential Bidding Criteria

• Place-making/shaping • Accessibility and connectivity • Economic development • Promotion • Additionality • Renewal and refitting • Phasing • Process • Market failure’ or ’Tipping Point’