The Mathematics of Poker– Implied Pot Odds
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Transcript of The Mathematics of Poker– Implied Pot Odds
The Mathematics of Poker– Implied Pot Odds
Strategy: No-Limit
What are implied pot odds?
► Implied pot odds ▫ Modified pot odds that speculate on another bet from your opponent if
you hit your hand.• Example: “the “Call20” rule from the SHC
▫ If calling before the flop is unprofitable through pot odds alone, it can still be profitable through implied pot odds.
▫ In No Limit Hold’em, you usually deal with implied pot odds, because the bets can be very high.
Implied pot odds:Ratio between the “current pot + suspected future bets from your opponent” : “the amount you have to pay”.
What are implied pot odds? – example #1
Hero (BB) $25 MP3 $25CO $25SB $25
Preflop:
5 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks.
Flop: ($ 1.00)
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds.
Flop:Actual Pot Odds: 3:1Required Pot Odds: 4:1
Implied Pot Odds (Flop):For the required pot odds of 4:1, $0.50 are missing in the pot. This must be invested on the turn by an opponent if you hit.
The probability of this is high –> call.
Turn:Actual Pot Odds: 2.1:1Required Pot Odds: 4:1
Turn: ($ 2.00)
SB bets $1.75, Hero folds.
Implied Pot Odds (Turn): For the required pot odds of 4:1, $3.25 are missing in the pot. Since your play suggests a draw, it is improbable that your opponent will pay on the river if your flush comes–> Fold.
What influences your implied pot odds?
► How loose is your opponent?▫ If your opponent is very loose post-flop, your implied pot odds
increase.
▫ If your opponent is very loose pre-flop, your implied pot odds decrease.• Exception: Maniacs!
► How much strength is your opponent showing?▫ The stronger your opponent’s hand, the more difficult it will be for him
to give it up.
► How obvious is your hand?▫ The more obvious your hand, the less your implied pot odds.
What influences your implied pot odds?
► Do you have position on your opponent?▫ Your implied odds are better in position than out of position.
► Are you on the flop or turn?▫ You usually have more implied pot odds on the flop, because there are
still two betting rounds after this.
► How big are the stacks involved in the hand?▫ The more money that is there, the more you can win.
What are implied pot odds? – Example #2
Hero (CO) $25 UTG2 $25
Preflop:
1 fold, UTG2 calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero raises $1.25, 3 folds, UTG2 calls $1.
Flop: ($ 2.85)
UTG2 checks, Hero bets $2, UTG2 raises $6, Hero calls $4.
Flop:Actual Pot Odds: 2.7:1Required Pot Odds: 4:1
Implied Pot Odds (Flop):For the required pot odds of 4:1, $5.5 is missingin the pot. Since a check raise shows a lot ofstrength, it can be assumed that your opponentwill still invest money –> Call.
Turn:Actual Pot Odds: 2.8:1Required Pot Odds: between 4:1 & 5:1
Turn: ($ 14.85)
UTG2 bets $8, Hero folds.
Implied Pot Odds (Turn):The pot on the river with a call from youIs $30.85 and you can win an additional $10. Your implied pot odds on the turn are thusAt 4.1:1 –> Fold.
Summary
► Your implied pot odds increase…
▫ …if your opponent is showing strength.
▫ …if your hand is less obvious.
▫ …if it is harder for your opponent to fold a hand.
► Implied pot odds are…
▫ …higher on the flop than on the turn.
▫ …higher if you are playing in position.
Implied pot odds are important, but be careful when judging how much money your opponent is prepared to pay.