The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are...
-
Upload
peter-lawson -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are...
![Page 1: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Markets Now
Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed
for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but
Valuations are Rising
David Fuller – 23rd February 2015fullertreacymoney.com
East India Club – 16 St. James SquareLondon SW1Y 4LH, UK
![Page 2: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Mario Draghi saves EU once again -this time with €60bn per month QE -
totalling at least €1.1 trillion to end-Sep ’16
This QE starts in March -‘Grexit’ over for at least 4 months -stock market catch-up underway
![Page 3: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SX5EP/E 22.55Yield 3.35%
![Page 4: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
SX7EP/E 50.61Yield 3.12%
![Page 5: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
DAXP/E 18.79Yield 2.48
![Page 6: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
BMWEst P/E 12.30Yield 2.33%
Temporarilyoverextended
![Page 7: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
CACP/E 31.15Yield 2.93%
![Page 8: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AEXP/E 22.69Yield 2.64%
![Page 9: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
OMXP/E 17.99Yield 3.11%
![Page 10: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
IBEXP/E 21.71Yield 5.86%**Exaggerated byBanco Santander
![Page 11: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
FTSEMIBP/E 64.59Yield 2.65%
![Page 12: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Some non-Euro or non-EU European markets which are
potential beneficiaries of Draghi’s QE
![Page 13: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
KFXP/E 26.58Yield 1.50%
Denmark is trying to hold its Euro peg
![Page 14: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
SMIP/E 18.76Yield 3.07%
Switzerlandunable tomaintain peg to Euro
![Page 15: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
UKXP/E 23.28Yield 4.46%
![Page 16: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Shinzo Abe and the BoJ have the right policies
for Japan’s economic recoveryand a long-term bull market
![Page 17: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
TPXP/E 17.05Yield 1.65%
Shinzo AbeElected PM
Re-elected
BoJ stilldeploying QE
![Page 18: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Should test this region, near 1800possibly this year
![Page 19: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Topix 2nd Sectionoften leads
TSE2P/E 15.22Yield 1.43%
![Page 20: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
A share for this eraFanuc leading Japan’s Indices
FanucEst p/e 23.52Yield 1.02%
![Page 21: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Wall Street influences everything
Fortunately, most US indiceshave reaffirmed bull market trends
![Page 22: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
SPXP/E 18.62Yield 1.94%
Would have to break1970 to confirm upside failure
![Page 23: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
INDUP/E 16.41Yield 2.18%
Would haveto break 17000to confirmupside failure
![Page 24: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
RTYP/E 20.03Yield 1.33%
This ‘canaryin the coalmine’is still singing
![Page 25: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
CCMPP/E 31.85Yield 1.28%
Would haveto closebeneath 4500to confirmupside failure
![Page 26: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
AAPLEst P/E 15.09Yield 1.45%
Keep an eye on this iconic bellwether for thetech sector and Wall St generally - currentlya little overextended but not expensive
Watch the rising lowsfor uptrend consistency
![Page 27: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Alarmists keep talkingabout a Wall St crash but unlikely while yield curve remains positive
![Page 28: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
India
SensexP/E 20.59Yield 1.38%
Still a favourite of mineover the next few years
Watch the rising lowsfor uptrend consistency
![Page 29: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Discount to NAVcurrently -9.061%
![Page 30: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
China
SHASHRP/E 15.61Yield 2.03 Consolidating first
stage of bull market
![Page 31: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
HSIP/E 10.51Yield 3.60%
![Page 32: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
HSCEIP/E 8.50%Yield 3.56%
![Page 33: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
JMCdiscount to NAVcurrently -11.865%
![Page 34: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Most investors remain cautious…
● Is it all about oil?
● Or is it about deflation?
● Political or algorithmic risks?
● What about leverage?
![Page 35: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
● My view: Oil near today’s price of Brent $60 is very bullish globally, oil producers excepted.
● However, the benefits are diffuse. People may not increase spending initially. Countries such as India reduce energy subsidies.
● In contrast, the pain for oil producers is seen and felt much more quickly.
● Investors should fear high oil prices because previous upside spikes are a major cause of global recessions as last saw in 2008.
![Page 36: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
● My view: Much of today’s deflation is largely positive, at least for corporations, because it is caused by technological innovation. For instance, better technology enables companies to produce improved products, at lower prices, in greater volume, while increasing profits due to increased sales.
● Destructive deflation is generally described as a vicious cycle of falling prices, wages and output. It is particularly bad for indebted governments, corporations and people who lose jobs or pay rises.
Deflation?
![Page 37: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
● Dangerous political risks are influential but usually regional events - Putin
● Excessive leverage and algorithmic risks often increase in maturing bull markets as speculators gamble more, but their economic impact is usually limited
![Page 38: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The long versus shortbalance is important
![Page 39: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
But this does notshow the size ofthese filings
![Page 40: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Surging newissues are acharacteristicof expensive markets andcoincide withtops becausethey devourbuying power
We are notthere yetbut this isa potentialproblem forthe future
![Page 41: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Biotechnology is currently a leading indicator and increasingly overextended relative to the MA,but the uptrend still consistent – watch the rising lows
![Page 43: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Technical warning signs to watch for among indices
• Trend acceleration relative to 200-day moving averages• Declining market breadth (fewer shares rising)• Failed upside breakouts from trading ranges• Loss of uptrend consistency characteristics• Churning price action relative to recent trading ranges • Breaks of 200-day moving averages• Broadening patterns relative the last several trading
ranges• 200-day moving averages turn downwards• Resistance is encountered beneath declining 200-day MAs• Previous rising lows are replaced by lower rally highs • Indices fall faster than they rose to their highs
![Page 44: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Bullish Points for Stock Markets • S&P up15.3% on average 6 months after mid-term election
• Global monetary policy is still extremely accommodative
• Central banks are worried about deflation, not inflation
• Capitalism increasingly dominates on a global basis
• Globalisation spurs rapid emerging market development
• Growth in middleclass consumers surges, led by Asia-Pac
![Page 45: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Long-term bull factors for stock markets
• Accommodative monetary policies, until growth accelerates
• An accelerating rate of technological innovation
• Lower energy prices in real terms, thanks to innovation
• The triumph of capitalism, both democratic & authoritarian
• Globalisation, hastening development of emerging markets
• Middleclass growth in emerging markets
• Continued growth in the global population
![Page 47: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
1) Probable lengthy base building2) Above 3% base maturing3) Above 4% probable base completion
![Page 48: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Government bonds where yields havebeen compressed by QE are a bubbles,with lengthy medium-term fuses
![Page 49: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
US bondholders are still making money but top completion occurs when this total return pattern breaks downwards
![Page 50: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
US Dollar Index has completed a base formationdriven by energy independence & tech leadFed & Treasury will control speed of $ recovery
![Page 51: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Nevertheless the US dollar is still a fiat currency, whichhas lost most of its purchasing power since only 1968
![Page 52: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Gold is hard money, albeit witha fluctuating price, just like anything else which can bebought or sold.
1. Traders mostly short2. ETF long holds of gold still liquidating3. Indians & Chinese buying4. Testing range lows
![Page 53: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Gold remains out of favourwith Western Investors who are mainly in stocks & bonds
![Page 54: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
The end of an era for producers of crude oil who have lost price control of this market
Now basing but no more price spikes such as 2008, despite turmoil in many producer regions and an eventual global economic recovery
![Page 55: The Markets Now Stock Market Uptrends Reaffirmed for Most of EU, Japan & USA, but Valuations are Rising David Fuller – 23 rd February 2015 fullertreacymoney.com.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649db65503460f94aa8869/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Many thanks for your interest!Any questions?
Please visit our site:www.fullertreacymoney.com