© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.i

| The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1

The MarketPulse

JANUARY 2018

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.ii

Table of Contents | The MarketPulse January 2018 Volume 7, Issue 1

Table of Contents

New Home Sales Continue Steady Rise .................................................................1

Metro Areas in the South Led Nation in 2017 Sales

More Than A High Appraisal ....................................................................................... 2

Homes Appraised Above Contract Price Had Above-Market Appreciation Rates

Bidding War is On, But for How Long? ................................................................. 3

A Third of Homes Sold For the List Price or More in September 2017

Homebuyers’ “Typical Mortgage Payment” Up 12 Percent Year Over Year .............................................................................................................................4

Forecasts Suggest a Nearly 13 Percent Gain Over the Next Year

In the News .............................................................................................................................................................. 5

10 Largest CBSA — Loan Performance Insights Report October 2017 .......................................7

Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including DistressedNovember 2017 .......................................................................................................................................................7

Home Price Index .................................................................................................................................................. 8

Overview of Loan Performance ..................................................................................................................... 8

CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition Overview............................................................................................ 9November 2017November 2022 Forecast

Variable Descriptions .........................................................................................................................................10

Housing Statistics

November 2017

HPI® YOY Chg 7.0%

HPI YOY Chg XD 6.2%

NegEq Share (Q3 2017) 6.3%

Cash Sales Share

(as of January 2017)

36.5%

Distressed Sales

(as of January 2017)

7.0%

The MarketPulseVolume 7, Issue 1January 2018Data as of November 2017 (unless otherwise stated)

News Media Contact

Alyson Austinalaustin@corelogic.com

949.214.1414 (offi ce)

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 1

The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 | Articles

New Home Sales Continue Steady RiseMetro Areas in the South Led Nation in 2017 Sales

By Frank E. Nothaft

Sales of newly built homes have had a slow,

steady recovery during the last several

years, and the final quarter of 2017 was on

pace to have the highest number of sales

in a decade (Figure 1). It’s no wonder that

homebuilders’ sentiment was so rosy at

year-end. According to the latest National

Housing Market Index, homebuilder

confidence in December was the highest

in 18 years, and the traffic of prospective

buyers was the most since 1998.1

At CoreLogic we use public records data

to examine which markets have had the

most home building activity over the past

year. We found that metro areas in the

South led the nation in new homes sold

(Figure 2). Four of the seven metro areas

with the largest number of new home sales

were in Texas: Houston, Dallas, Austin and

San Antonio. And Phoenix, Atlanta and

Charlotte were the other three. What these

metro areas have in common is a strong

local economy, land availability, and less

land-use restrictions. Noticeably absent

from the top metro list are the major cities

along the Pacific coast: Limited land and

regulatory red tape have constrained new

supply, thus adding to the rapid home-price

growth in these markets.

The increase in new home sales has been

supported by household income growth,

rising consumer confidence, and access to

low-rate mortgages. During 2017, about two-

thirds of mortgage-financed new home sales

used a conventional loan, either conforming

or jumbo, and one-third used FHA or VA

loans (Figure 3). The type of loan used for

financing varied greatly with the price of the

home. For homes that sold for $250,000

or less, one-half of the loans were FHA

or VA, products often used by first-time

buyers. In contrast, homes that sold for

more than $1 million nearly always were

financed by a jumbo loan.

FIGURE 1. NEW HOME SALES: 2017 MOST SINCE 2008U.S. New Home Sales (thousands)

200

300

400

500

600

2008 2011 2014 2017

Tax ImplementedAugust 2016

nothaft: fig 1Peak 18.4%

550K2017 Annualized

Source: CoreLogic Real Estate Analytics Suite, MarketTrends (2017 annualized).

FIGURE 2. NEW-HOME SALES LEVELS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHMonthly Number of New Home Sales (Average)

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Houston TX

Dallas TX

Phoenix AZ

Atlanta GA

Austin TX

Charlotte NC

San Antonio TX

Orlando FL

Tampa FL

Las Vegas NV

Denver CO

Washington DC

Nashville TN

Fort Worth TX

New York NY

Riverside CA

Raleigh NC

Jacksonville FL

Tax ImplementedAugust 2016

nothaft: fig 2Peak 18.4%

Source: CoreLogic, average monthly new homes sold October 2016 to September 2017; top 100 CBSAs based on new and existing home sales.

Dr. Frank Nothaft

Executive, Chief Economist,

Office of the Chief Economist

Frank Nothaft holds the title executive, chief economist for CoreLogic. He leads the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real estate, insurance and mortgage markets.

Continued on page 5

1 See National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing

Market Index at https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-

economics/housing-indexes/housing-market-index.aspx.

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.2

Articles | The MarketPulse January 2018 Volume 7, Issue 1

More Than A High AppraisalHomes Appraised Above Contract Price Had Above-Market Appreciation Rates

By Yanling Mayer

For homebuyers, the outcome of

appraisal is one of these three scenarios:

(1) appraised value closely matches sales

price, (2) appraisal falls short of sales price

or (3) appraisal is higher than sales price.

If a home sells for less than its appraised

value, does that mean that the buyers

got ‘a bargain,’ and should anticipate

above-average appreciation during their

ownership period? Conversely, if a home

sells for more than its appraised value, does

that mean the buyers may have ‘overpaid,’

and could expect a below-market rate of

price growth during the length of time they

own the home?

Evidence seems to support the hypothesis

that there is “money left on the table” in

high-appraisal transactions. When property

price appreciation was calculated for twice

turned-over homes in the California market—

fi rst sale observed with a full appraisal

and sales closing price in 2010 or later,

and then a second time with a sale by the

owner—homes previously appraised with a

sizable premium above the contract sales

price were found to have above-market

appreciation rates.

As shown in Figure 1, excess rates of price

appreciation averaged about 3.3 percent

per year. By comparison, closely appraised

homes appreciated at about the market

average, while homes with appraised value

below their contract sales price appreciated

0.3 percent per year slower than the market.

Excess appreciation rates were annualized

price gains at re-sale—annualized percentage

diff erence between prior purchase price

and subsequent re-sale price, in excess of

average market appreciation during the same

ownership period. The CoreLogic county-

level Home Price Index (HPI) was used as the

benchmark of market-wide appreciation.

Figure 2 shows that high-appraisal homes—

whether a distressed sale or not—had

above-market price appreciation, averaging

3.15 percent among non-distressed sales

or 3.9 percent among distressed sales.

Real estate owned (REO) and short sales

exhibited above-market appreciation

rates across all three appraisal valuation

outcomes, likely driven by their below-

market pricing to motivate sales. Investors’

value-enhancing repair and refurbishing

work could also be a factor for their higher

re-sale values—despite that only homes

that were held for at least 18 months since

initial purchase/appraisal were included in

the analysis. For both non-distressed and

Con nued on page 6

FIGURE 1. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY VALUATION OUTCOME

Appraisal Valuation Outcome

Excess Property Appreciation Upon Re-sale

Ownership Duration (months)

# of Repeat Sale Pairs

High-appraisal homes 3.32% 40 3,503

Low-appraisal homes (0.26%) 42 2,651

Closely appraised homes (0.03%) 40 26,663

Notes:1. High-appraisal homes were those appraised at 3% or more above contract price, and low-appraisal homes 3% or more below contract

price. Closely appraised homes included those with a less than +/- 1% diff erence between appraisal and contract price.2. Only homes that were held for at least 18 months since initial purchase/appraisal were included in the analysis.3. Compounded monthly.Source: CoreLogic

FIGURE 2. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY INITIAL-PURCHASE PROPERTY TYPE*

Appraisal Valuation Outcome

Excess Property Appreciation Upon Re-sale

Median Sale Price # of Repeat Sale Pairs

Non-Distressed Properties

High-appraisal homes 3.15% $300,000 2,754

Low-appraisal homes (0.57%) $300,000 2,246

Closely appraised homes (0.17%) $408,000 23,478

REO and Short Sale Properties

High-appraisal homes 3.90% $205,000 749

Low-appraisal homes 1.62% $201,000 405

Closely appraised homes 2.00% $243,000 3,185

* The distressed and non-distressed classifi cations are based on a property's status when it was intitally purchased and appraised.

Source: CoreLogic

Yanling Mayer

Principal, Economist

Yanling Mayer holds the title principal economist for CoreLogic in the Offi ce of the Chief Economist, and conducts analysis of housing and mortgage markets. A fi nancial economist by training, Yanling has more than 15 years of professional experience in economic and market research.

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 3

The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 | Articles

Bidding War is On, But for How Long?A Third of Homes Sold For the List Price or More in September 2017

By Shu Chen

Ten years after the financial crisis, home

price indexes and home sales are returning

to pre-crisis levels. In some areas, prices and

sales have reached new highs. With demand

strong and inventory thin, a greater share

of homes have sold this year at or above

their listing price.

Figure 1 shows the share of homes that sold

at a price above, equal to or below the list

price.1 This September the share of homes

selling above list price had recovered to

early 2004 levels. The share selling above

list price was almost three times the trough

in January 2008 and represented more than

one-fifth of total sales.

Housing markets are different across the

nation. Sales and listing patterns vary

geographically. Figure 2 shows the share of

homes that sold at, above, or below their

list prices in 16 Core Based Statistical Areas

during September 2017. San Francisco had

the largest share of homes—76 percent—that

sold for at least the list price, and Seattle

and Los Angeles followed with 63 and 51

percent, respectively. Miami had the lowest

share—16 percent—of homes selling at or

above the list price in September 2017. ■

FIGURE 2. SHARE OF SALES AT, ABOVE OR BELOW LIST PRICE BY CBSA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

San

Fra

ncis

co, C

A

Sea

ttle

, WA

Lo

s A

ngel

es, C

A

Den

ver,

CO

Ho

no

lulu

, HI

Min

neap

olis

, MN

Las

Veg

as, N

V

Dal

las,

TX

San

Die

go

, CA

Phi

lad

elp

hia,

PA

Det

roit

, MI

Atl

anta

, GA

Orl

and

o, F

L

Chi

cag

o, I

L

Ho

ust

on,

TX

Mia

mi,

FL

sold price = list price sold price > list price sold price < list price

chen: fig 2

Source: CoreLogic MLS September 2017

FIGURE 1. SHARE OF SALES AT, ABOVE OR BELOW THE LIST PRICE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-00

Jun

-00

No

v-0

0A

pr-

01

Sep

-01

Feb

-02

Jul-

02

Dec

-02

May

-03

Oct

-03

Mar

-04

Aug

-04

Jan

-05

Jun

-05

No

v-0

5A

pr-

06

Sep

-06

Feb

-07

Jul-

07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug

-09

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-10

Ap

r-11

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Jul-

12D

ec-1

2M

ay-1

3O

ct-1

3M

ar-1

4A

ug-1

4Ja

n-1

5Ju

n-1

5N

ov-

15A

pr-

16S

ep-1

6F

eb-1

7Ju

l-17

sold price = list price sold price > list price sold price < list price

chen: fig 1

Mean: 1.6%Standard deviation: 5.7%Low appraisals: 9.8%

Source: CoreLogic MLS September 2017

1 Figures 1 use 66 CBSAs to aggregate national level statistics.

The inventory has not been adjusted for growth in the number

of households over time. As the number of households increases

over time, the ‘equivalent’ level of inventory should rise as well.

Shu Chen

Principal, Economist, Office of the

Chief Economist

Shu Chen holds the title principal, economist for the CoreLogic information solutions group. In this role, she is part of the Office of the Chief Economist working with senior economists to provide insights for the Home Price Index, foreclosure reports and she regularly performs analysis of the home value equity report.

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.4

Articles | The MarketPulse January 2018 Volume 7, Issue 1

Con nued on page 5

Homebuyers’ “Typical Mortgage Payment” Up 12 Percent Year Over YearForecasts Suggest a Nearly 13 Percent Gain Over the Next Year

By Andrew LePage

U.S. home prices have risen more than

6 percent over the last year but that’s only

part of the challenge for home shoppers,

who face mortgage payments that have

risen about 12 percent year over year

because of higher mortgage rates.

One way to measure the impact of infl ation,

mortgage rates and home prices on

aff ordability over time is to use what we

call the “typical mortgage payment.” It’s a

mortgage-rate-adjusted monthly payment

based on each month’s U.S. median home

sale price. It is calculated using Freddie

Mac’s average rate on a 30-year fi xed-

rate mortgage with a 20 percent down

payment. It does not include taxes or

insurance. The typical mortgage payment

is a good proxy for aff ordability because it

shows the monthly amount that a borrower

would have to qualify for in order to get a

mortgage to buy the median-priced U.S.

home. When adjusted for infl ation, the

typical mortgage payment also puts current

payments in the proper historical context.

The change in the typical mortgage

payment over the past year illustrates how

it can be misleading to simply focus on

the rise in home prices when assessing

aff ordability. For example, in October 2017

the U.S. median sale price was 6.3 percent

higher than a year earlier in nominal terms,

but the typical mortgage payment was up

12.1 percent because mortgage rates had

increased by more than 0.4 percentage

points over that 12-month period.

Figure 1 shows that while the infl ation-

adjusted typical mortgage payment has

trended higher in recent years, in October

2017 it remained 36.2 percent below the

all-time peak of $1,259 in June 2006.

That’s because the average mortgage

rate back in June 2006 was about

6.7 percent, compared with an average

rate of 3.9 percent in October 2017, and

the infl ation-adjusted median sale price in

June 2006 was $244,318 (or $199,900 in

2006 dollars), compared with a median of

$212,680 in October 2017.

An IHS Markit forecast calls for infl ation

and incomes to rise gradually over the next

year, while a consensus forecast1 suggests

mortgage rates will gradually rise by

about 0.6 basis points between October

2017 and October 2018. The CoreLogic

Home Price Index forecast suggests the

median sale price will rise 3.2 percent in

real terms over the same period. Based on

these projections, the infl ation-adjusted

typical mortgage payment would rise from

1 Based on the average mortgage rate forecast from Freddie Mac,

Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association

of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders and IHS

Markit.

NATIONAL HOMEBUYERS’ “TYPICAL MORTGAGE PAYMENT”Infl ation-Adjusted Monthly Mortgage Payment That Buyers Commit To

Jun-06: $1,259

Feb-12: $550

Oct-16: $730

Oct-17: $803

Oct-18: $891

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Jan-00 Jan-06 Jan-12 Jan-18

The typical mortgage payment used for this chart represents the inflation-adjusted monthly payment based on each month’s U.S. median sale price and assumes a 20 percent down payment, a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage, and Freddie Mac’s average monthly rate. It does not include taxes or insurance.

Source: CoreLogic’s Real Estate Analytics Suite, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac (for current and past mortgage rates), IHS Markit (for CPI forecast) and IHS, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors for averaging mortgage rate forecasts. Chart forecast period begins Nov-17.

Andrew LePage

Research Analyst

Andrew LePage joined CoreLogic in 2015 as a research analyst working in the Offi ce of the Chief Economist. Previously, Andrew was an analyst and writer for DQNews, a partner of DataQuick (acquired by CoreLogic in 2014). Andrew provided real estate data and trend analysis to journalists and issued a variety of housing market reports to the news media on behalf of DataQuick. Prior to that he was a staff writer at the Sacramento Bee newspaper covering residential real estate topics in the capital region and across California. He continues to monitor California’s housing market for CoreLogic in two monthly data briefs detailing trends in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area.

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 5

The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 | Articles

FIGURE 2. COMPARING MORTGAGE RATES TO THE YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE IN THE REAL MEDIAN PRICE & TYPICAL MORTGAGE PAYMENT

Oct-16: 8.1%

Oct-17: 4.2%

Oct-18: 3.2%

Oct-16: 3.8%

Oct-17: 9.9%Oct-18: 11.0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Mo

nthl

y A

vg R

ate

for

30-Y

r F

ixed

-Rat

e M

tg

Yo

Y %

Cha

nge

in R

eal M

edia

n P

rice

and

Rea

l Typ

ical

Mtg

Pm

t

Avg 30-year Mtg Rate YoY Change in Real Median$ YoY Change in Real Typical Mtg Pmt

Fo

reca

st

lepage: fig 2

Source: CoreLogic’s Real Estate Analytics Suite, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac (for current and past mortgage rates), IHS Markit (for CPI forecast) and IHS, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, National Association of Home Builders, Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors for averaging mortgage rate forecasts. Chart forecast period begins Nov-17.

FIGURE 3. MORTGAGE FINANCING FOR NEW HOME BUYERS All New Home Sales Financing by New Home Sales Price

Conventional Conforming

61%

Jumbo 6%

FHA 19%

VA13%

Other (1%)

Tax ImplementedAugust 2016

nothaft: fig 3Peak 18.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

<=

$25

0,0

00

$25

0,0

01-

$50

0,0

00

$50

0,0

01-

$75

0,0

00

$75

0,0

01-

$1

mill

ion

>$

1 m

illio

n

Sales Price

Other

VA

FHA

ConventionalConforming

Jumbo

Source: CoreLogic public records, new home settlements January–September 2017 (Number of mortgages).

New Home Sales continued from page 1

Affordability continues to be a pressing

issue for prospective buyers, especially in

high-cost markets. Higher levels of new

construction, by adding to the existing

housing stock, can alleviate some of these

pressures. We expect a 5 percent increase

in housing starts in 2018. While this will

help, we need an even larger increase in

home building to alleviate the erosion of

affordability, especially in high-cost areas. ■

Homebuyers' "Typical Mortgage Payment" continued from page 4

$803 in October 2017 to $891 by October

2018, an 11 percent year-over-year gain

(Figure 2). (In nominal terms the typical

mortgage payment would rise 12.9 percent

over the next year.) Real disposable

income is projected to rise by around

3 percent over the same period, meaning

next year’s homebuyers would see a

larger chunk of their incomes devoted to

mortgage payments. ■

In the News

Professional Builder, January 23, 2018

Forecasts Suggest Almost 13 Percent

Rise in ‘Typical Mortgage Payment’ Over

the Next Year

When assessing affordability, focusing on changing

home prices along with the change in the typical

mortgage payment over the past year can provide

more insight than analyzing home prices alone, per

CoreLogic’s latest research.

SFGate, January 22, 2018

Housing bears hibernate as U.S.

homebuilders swagger into 2018

A rate rise from 4 to 5 percent for a 30-year loan

would drive up monthly mortgage costs by 12 percent.

For buyers, that’s on top of the annual median price

gain—7 percent for existing homes in November,

according to CoreLogic.

Palm Beach Post, January 22, 2018

S. Florida among ‘overvalued’ housing

markets to make first cut for Amazon’s

HQ2

More than half of the 20 finalists—including

South Florida—have home prices that are

“overvalued,” according to CoreLogic. Just two

of the finalists—Indianapolis and Pittsburgh—are

considered “undervalued.”

Builder Magazine, January 19, 2018

One-Third of Homes Sold In September

At or Above List Price

One-third of homes sold in September 2017 were

sold at or above list price, according to CoreLogic

data. In addition, the share of homes sold above

list price that month recovered to early 2004 levels.

CoreLogic Insights reports.

CNBC, January 18, 2018

Insurers take a hard look at California and

see growing wildfire risk

In Southern California, more than 13,500 homes in Los

Angeles and Ventura counties are considered at high or

extremely high wildfire risk, according to CoreLogic, a

real estate information firm.

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.6

Articles | The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1

More Than a High Appraisal continued from page 2

“…buyers appear to have benefitted by having a faster-than-market appreciation during their ownership tenure”

distressed sales, median prices of high-

and low-appraisal homes were lower than

closely appraised homes. Since both high-

and low-appraisal homes may have drawn

disproportionately from lower-priced homes,

faster price appreciation experienced

by low-valued homes alone could not

explain away the large disparities in price

appreciation between the two.1

In Figure 3, sample homes were further

sub-grouped by the year in which they were

initially purchased and appraised. Given

significant market dynamics during 2010-

2015, property appreciation rates were

likely to vary depending on the timing of

initial purchase. They ranged between 2 and

5 percent, reaching the highest during the

2012 market bottom when market-wide

underpricing was likely the severest.

A city-level breakdown is shown in

Figure 4. Stockton (5.87 percent) and

Riverside (5.22 percent) had the highest

excess price gains, followed by San

Francisco (4.62 percent), Los Angeles

(4.35 percent), Bakersfield (4.24 percent),

and San Jose (4.04 percent). Due to the

use of county-wide HPIs for benchmarking,

some cities—such as Oakland, Riverside

and others—that may have experienced

faster-rising prices than its county as a

whole could well see across-the-board

positive excess price appreciation.

Regardless of the reason(s) why a home

may have sold for less than its appraised

value, the buyers appear to have benefitted

by having a faster-than-market appreciation

during their ownership tenure. ■

FIGURE 4. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY CITY

Select City High-Appraisal Homes Low-Appraisal Homes Closely Appraised Homes

Bakersfield 4.24% (0.02%) (1.13%)

Fresno 0.72% (0.23%) 0.13%

Irvine 2.06% (2.10%) (0.81%)

Long Beach 3.27% (1.69%) (0.77%)

Los Angeles 4.35% (0.01%) 1.09%

Oakland 3.92% 4.78% 2.25%

Riverside 5.22% 1.45% 1.29%

Sacramento 1.93% 0.43% 0.63%

San Diego 3.25% 0.01% (0.11%)

San Francisco 4.62% 2.22% 0.70%

San Jose 4.04% 1.24% 0.21%

Stockton 5.87% (1.12%) (0.52%)

Source: CoreLogic

FIGURE 3. ANNUALIZED EXCESS PROPERTY APPRECIATION, BY TIMING OF INITIAL PURCHASE

(2%)

(1%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

High-appraisal homes Low-appraisal homes Closely appraised homes

yanling: fig 1

Source: CoreLogic

1 In general, low-price tier homes have appreciated faster.

See Exhibit 1 inside the CoreLogic U.S. Economic Outlook

(November 2015): http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/

frank-nothaft/2015/11/corelogic-us-economic-outlook-

november-2015.aspx#.Wl-U6OTHyUl.

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 7

The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 | Analysis

“Rising home prices are good news for home sellers, but adds to the challenges that home buyers face. Rising numbers of first-time buyers find limited for-sale inventory for lower-prices homes, leading to higher rates of price growth for ‘starter’ homes and further erosion of affordability.”

Dr. Frank Nothaft,

chief economist for CoreLogic

Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed November 2017

StateMonth-Over-Month

Percent ChangeYear-Over-Year Percent Change

Forecasted Month-Over-Month

Percent Change

Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percent Change

Alabama 0.1% 4.9% 0.2% 4.8%Alaska −0.1% 2.3% 0.0% 4.9%

Arizona 0.4% 6.3% 0.1% 5.7%Arkansas −0.4% 3.6% 0.0% 4.4%California 0.4% 8.0% 0.3% 8.4%Colorado 0.8% 8.1% 0.2% 5.3%

Connecticut −0.5% 2.4% 0.0% 5.9%Delaware 0.3% 4.6% 0.0% 3.9%

District of Columbia 1.0% 2.7% 0.1% 3.7%Florida 0.4% 6.0% 0.1% 6.3%

Georgia −0.2% 5.8% 0.0% 3.6%HawaiiIdaho 1.2% 10.4% 0.4% 4.4%Illinois −0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 4.7%

Indiana 0.2% 4.8% 0.1% 4.7%Iowa −0.1% 4.0% −0.1% 3.4%

Kansas −0.9% 2.3% −0.1% 3.7%Kentucky 0.3% 6.0% 0.1% 3.8%Louisiana 0.1% 4.8% 0.0% 2.5%

Maine −1.5% 4.1% −0.8% 4.0%Maryland 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 3.9%

Massachusetts 0.4% 6.5% 0.1% 4.6%Michigan 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 5.7%

Minnesota 0.2% 6.0% 0.0% 3.2%Mississippi 2.0% 4.7% 0.2% 3.4%

Missouri 0.5% 6.3% 0.1% 4.4%Montana 0.7% 5.8% 0.0% 3.5%

Nebraska 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 3.6%Nevada 0.9% 10.8% 0.5% 8.3%

New Hampshire 0.0% 7.1% 0.1% 5.7%New Jersey −0.4% 3.6% 0.1% 4.9%New Mexico 0.2% 2.0% 0.0% 3.3%

New York 1.7% 5.2% 0.3% 4.6%North Carolina 0.5% 5.4% 0.1% 3.9%North Dakota 1.7% 6.4% 0.1% 2.5%

Ohio 0.5% 6.4% 0.1% 4.1%Oklahoma 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 3.0%

Oregon 0.3% 7.5% 0.1% 5.9%Pennsylvania −0.3% 3.4% 0.0% 4.2%Rhode Island −0.2% 8.0% 0.2% 3.5%

South Carolina 0.7% 4.9% 0.1% 3.8%South Dakota 0.2% 9.1% −0.1% 2.7%

Tennessee 0.1% 6.8% 0.1% 3.0%Texas 0.3% 5.4% −0.1% 2.1%Utah 0.9% 10.5% 0.2% 3.8%

Vermont −0.1% 5.0% 0.0% 4.2%Virginia −0.1% 2.9% 0.1% 4.0%

Washington 0.5% 12.2% 0.1% 4.9%West Virginia −0.2% 3.5% 0.0% 4.5%

Wisconsin 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 4.0%Wyoming 1.0% 3.5% 0.0% 2.9%

Source: CoreLogic October 2017

10 Largest CBSA — Loan Performance Insights Report October 2017

CBSA

30 Days or More Delinquency Rate October 2017 (%)

Serious Delinquency Rate October 2017

(%)Foreclosure Rate October 2017 (%)

30 Days or More Delinquent Rate

October 2016 (%)

Serious Delinquency Rate October 2016

(%)Foreclosure Rate October 2016 (%)

Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH 3.6 1.4 0.5 4.1 1.8 0.7

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI 5.0 2.3 0.8 5.6 2.9 1.1

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 1.9 0.5 0.1 2.3 0.7 0.2

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX 10.9 2.6 0.2 5.8 2.0 0.5

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV 4.5 2.3 0.9 5.3 3.1 1.2

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA 2.8 0.9 0.2 3.2 1.2 0.3

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL 12.5 3.3 0.8 7.6 4.0 1.6

New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA 6.6 3.8 1.9 8.0 4.9 2.7

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA 1.7 0.6 0.1 2.0 0.8 0.2

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 4.0 1.6 0.5 4.5 2.0 0.6

Source: CoreLogic October 2017

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.8

Analysis | The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1

OVERVIEW OF LOAN PERFORMANCENational Delinquency Rates

Source: CoreLogic October 2017

5.1

2.3

0.9

0.40

1.3 1.5

0.6

5.2

2.2

0.7 0.40

1.5

1.9

0.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

30+ days 30 to 59 days 60 to 89 days 90 to 119 days 90+ days (not infcl)

120+ days In Foreclosure

Per

cent

age

Rat

e

5.0

2.4

0.70

0.30

1.3

1.6

0.6

5.2

2.1

0.70 0.30

1.5

2.0

0.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

30+ days 30 to 59 days 60 to 89 days 90 to 119 days 90+ days (not infcl)

120+ days In Foreclosure

Per

cent

age

Rat

e2.61x5.11 / 2.69x4.98

loan performance oct 2017: national overview

October 2016

October 201790-119 Days

Past Due120+ DaysPast Due

60-89 DaysPast Due

30-59 DaysPast Due

30 Days or MorePast Due

90+ Days(not in fcl)

HOME PRICE INDEXPercentage Change Year Over Year

Source: CoreLogic November 2017

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

May

-04

No

v-0

4

May

-05

No

v-0

5

May

-06

No

v-0

6

May

-07

No

v-0

7

May

-08

No

v-0

8

May

-09

No

v-0

9

May

-10

No

v-10

May

-11

No

v-11

May

-12

No

v-12

May

-13

No

v-13

May

-14

No

v-14

May

-15

No

v-15

May

-16

No

v-16

May

-17

No

v-17

2.62x5.02hpi as of nov 2017

Including DistressedIncluding Distressed

Charts & Graphs

“While natural hazard risk was elevated in 2017, the economic fundamentals that drive mortgage credit performance are the best in two decades. The combination of strong job growth, low unemployment rates, steady economic performance and prudent underwriting has led to continued improvement in mortgage performance heading into next year.”

Frank Martell,

president and CEO of CoreLogic

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 9

The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1 | Analysis

CORELOGIC HPI® MARKET CONDITION OVERVIEWNovember 2017

Source: CoreLogic

CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through November 2017.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting in December 2017.

Legend

Normal

Overvalued

Undervalued

CORELOGIC HPI® MARKET CONDITION OVERVIEWNovember 2022 Forecast

Source: CoreLogic

CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through November 2017.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting in December 2017.

Legend

Normal

Overvalued

Undervalued

© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.10

Analysis | The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1

Variable Descriptions

Variable Definition

Total Sales The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month.

Total Sales 12-Month sum The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months.

Total Sales YoY Change 12-Month sum

Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales

New Home Sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month.

New Home Sales Median Price

The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month.

Existing Home Sales The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES.

REO Sales Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party.

REO Sales Share The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales.

REO Price Discount The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.

REO Pct The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period.

Short SalesThe number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan.

Short Sales Share The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales.

Short Sale Price Discount The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.

Short Sale Pct The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month.

Distressed Sales Share The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale).

Distressed Sales Share (sales 12-Month sum)

The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum.

HPI MoM Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago.

HPI YoY Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago.

HPI MoM Excluding Distressed

Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago.

HPI YoY Excluding Distressed

Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago.

HPI Percent Change from Peak

Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index.

90 Days + DQ Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO.

Stock of 90+ Delinquencies YoY Chg

Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month.

Foreclosure Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period.

Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak

Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures.

Pre-foreclosure FilingsThe number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD). 

Completed ForeclosuresA completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory.

Negative Equity ShareThe percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record.

Negative Equity

The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position.  We estimate current UPB value, not origination value.

Months' Supply of Distressed Homes (total sales 12-Month avg)

The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace.

Price/Income RatioCoreLogic HPI™ divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January 1976.

Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate

The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate

The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

corelogic.com

End Notes | The MarketPulse g January 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 1

© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CORELOGIC HPI, SAFERENT and SCOREPLUS are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective holders.

17-MKTPLSE-0118-00

Source: CoreLogicThe data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's

publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any

other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent

company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for

publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic,

a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation

must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps,

charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen

or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact CoreLogic at

newsmedia@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written

permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled

from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is

dependent upon these sources.

For more information please call 866-774-3282

The MarketPulse is a newsletter published by CoreLogic, Inc. ("CoreLogic"). This information is made

available for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific commercial, financial or

investment advice. CoreLogic disclaims all express or implied representations, warranties and guaranties,

including implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, or non-infringement.

Neither CoreLogic nor its licensors make any representations, warranties or guaranties as to the quality,

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