THE MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FACTORS AFFECTING IN SOFTWARE · PDF fileTHE MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FACTORS...

THE MAJOR UNCERTAINTY FACTORS AFFECTING IN

SOFTWARE COST ESTIMATION

G. Rajkumar1, Dr.K.Alagarsamy

2

1Assistant Professor, N.M.S.S.Vellaichamy Nadar College, Madurai, India.

2Associate Professor, Computer Centre, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai, India.

ABSTRACT

The majority of uncertainty factors that

caused major problems were operational in the

sense that they invoked problems that are normally

within the responsibility of the Software Project

Management. Each project will have a different

capacity for uncertainty. This is a measure of how

much uncertainty the project can tolerate. Accurate

software cost and schedule estimations are essential

especially for large software projects. However,

once the required efforts have been estimated, little

is done to recalibrate and reduce the uncertainty of the initial estimates. Uncertainties in estimates of

resource requirements for future systems arise from

many sources. One of the top reasons for the

failures is inadequate or inconsistent application of

proven project Uncertainty methods. All projects

have some uncertainties. Most practitioners agree

that improved estimation practices and processes

have changed the uncertainty scale. This paper

reviews the numbers of Uncertainty factors

involved in the software cost estimation, which

interact with each other.

Keywords: Software Project Management,

Uncertainty Factors, Managing Uncertainty.

INTRODUCTION

The accuracy of cost estimation

result is important in any software

development project. The crucial question

in software development project is how to

complete a project in specific time, budget

and resources. A major part of the failure

can be due to a lack of understanding of

the software development process and the

effect of that method used in the project

plan, schedule and cost estimates.

Organizations and individuals have studied

a number of projects that have both

succeeded and failed and some common

factors emerge. Major projects by nature

are usually more complex and contain

more risk elements than other projects.

Careful attention must be provided when

preparing cost estimates for major projects.

Costs should be determined for

uncertainties within an estimate. All

elements of the project must be reduced to

a cost that can be accounted and budgeted.

There should be a disciplined and

comprehensive method of assessing and

reassessing project risk and uncertainty.

Most importantly, however all estimates

have uncertainty. This paper discusses on

Uncertainty factors in software

development project.

SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY

Uncertainty is the indefiniteness or

variance of an event. The [1] Major

sources of uncertainty in cost analysis of

future system and force structure proposals

may be classified in various ways. The

variations arise for number of reasons. All

projects have some uncertainties. For

example Differences in Individual cost

analysts, Errors in Cost estimating

relationships, Errors in basic data and so

on.

THE MOST COMMON REASONS

FOR PROJECT UNCERTAINTY

The following list has been inspired by

actual mistakes encountered in real-world

systems projects.

1. MANAGEMENT

G Rajkumar et al , Int.J.Computer Technology & Applications,Vol 4 (3),419-424

IJCTA | May-June 2013 Available [email protected]

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ISSN:2229-6093

In this section we consider what might be

done to develop a management uncertainty

approach which encompasses all forms of

project related uncertainty. Top

management commitment is the factor that

determines the tipping point between

potential success and failure when

developing and implementing business

continuity management projects and

systems. The term 'uncertainty

management' [2]it implies more than just a

combined consideration of threats and

opportunities. Rather, the term implies a

more fundamental purpose of exploring

and understanding the origins of project

uncertainty before seeking to manage it,

with no preconceptions about what is

desirable or undesirable. Key concerns are

understanding where and why uncertainty

is important in a given project context, and

where it is not. The Management Problem

occurs in all the stages of the Software

development project.

2. PROJECT DESIGN

Design is associated with the conceptual

framework [3] that constitutes the project

and establishes its main characteristics and

objectives, while planning is the detailed

formulation of the projects strategy in

time, cost, quality, and quantity. The

design provides an account of the project

in its entirely, while the plan is largely

limited to the operational perspective.

Uncertainty factors related to the design of

projects. The problems related to

inappropriate components had to do with

lack of training, maintenance, too

sophisticated or ambitious components,

etc.

3. COMMUNICATION

The communication problems [5] are a

major factor in the delay and failure of

software projects. Requirements

descriptions are necessarily uncertain. The

specification documentation may be so

large that no member of the software team

has read it all. In this situation,

misunderstandings and conflicting views

are rife. Software projects suffer serious

breakdowns in co-ordination and

communication throughout their

development life cycle. We present some

of the causes for the breakdown of

communication during the requirements

engineering phase of software

23%

21%

6%7%

5%

14%

2%

9%

11%

2%

Uncertainty Factors

MANAGEMENT

PROJECT DESIGN

COMMUNICATION

STAFF EXPERIENCE

FUNDING PROBLEMS

USER’S RESPONSE

PRICE CHANGES

RESOURCES

TECHNICAL FACTORS

OTHERS……



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development projects. The

communication attributes [6] provide

information about whether the matter of

concern should and has been

communicated between the sender and the

receiver. In software development,

coordination and communication within

and across organizational boundaries

throughout the software development cycle

are acknowledged as critical factors for

success, especially when software is

developed on a large scale.

4. STAFF EXPERIENCE

Staff weaknesses had to do with

qualifications of staff, the experience of

expatriate personnel, lack of commitment,

turn-over of qualified staff, etc. Planning

and preparation had to do with the

availability and quality of detailed plans of

operation. [4] The projecting company

had experience with the solution of similar

problems. The project team did not

experience any significant personnel losses

or transfer during the project’s

development.

5. FUNDING PROBLEMS

Delay is one of the [7] most serious

problems in the completion of a project.

Delay is common in projects and its extent

varies considerably from project to project.

Some projects are only a few days behind

schedule; some are delayed by over a year.

Thus, delay is costly for both owner and

contractor. To the owner, a delay means

loss of potential revenue; a delay means

increased costs in overhead. The Financial

issues are Payment issues, Cash flow

issues, financial resource issues and

Market issues. Financial-related delays are

mainly due to poor cash flow management,

followed by late payment, insufficient

financial resources, and financial market

instability.

6. USER RESPONSES

Computer users have rapidly increased in

both number and diversity. They [8]

include managers, accountants, engineers,

home makers, teachers, scientists, health

care workers, insurance adjusters,

salesmen, and administrative assistants.

Many of these people work on tasks that

rapidly vary on a yearly, monthly, or even

daily basis. End users usually do not have

training in professionals' programming

languages, formal development processes,

or modeling and diagramming notations.

Moreover, end users often lack the time or

motivation to learn these traditional

techniques, since end users usually write

code in order to achieve a short or

medium-term goal rather than to create a

durable software asset that will produce a

continuing revenue stream. Consequently,

supporting End user requires providing

appropriate tools, social structures, and

development processes that are highly

usable, quickly learned, and easily

integrated into domain practice.

7. RESOURCES

One must seek to optimize the [9]

knowledge and experience gain from the

information gathered (its relevance,

accuracy and suitability), in relation to the

investments made to gather it (the time and

money spent). The following describes

various methods of gathering data and

information. The reasonably priced and

straight-forward ones should be preferred.

In cases where the more complex and

expensive methods must be used, one

should evaluate critically which one(s) will

be most appropriate. The approach taken

by an external organization which is just

starting up work in a new partner country

will naturally differ from that of a local

organization which is already established

and in operation. Sources of information

are survey reports, Government Official,



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NGO Personal, Community members,

etc.,

8. PRICE CHANGES

Pricing [11] must take into account

broader organizational, economic, political

and business considerations, such as

Market opportunity, Financial Health,

Requirements etc., Therefore, there may

not be a simple relationship between the

price to the customer for the software and

the development costs. Because of the

organizational considerations involved,

project pricing should involve senior

management, as well as software project

managers.

9. TECHNICAL FACTORS

The task was technically demanding.

Under most circumstances regulatory cost

estimates ignore the possibility of

technological progress. As noted,

regulators often have an obligation to

identify a means for firms to meet the

regulation, a requirement that seemingly

precludes the projection or extrapolation of

future costs or the expectation of cost

declines. Technical change is, after all,

notoriously difficult to predict; all we can

say with some confidence, based on

historical experience, is that the cost of

compliance will decline, but we cannot say

at what rate. Special consideration is given

to soft or human-related factors in software

engineering that are often not analyzed

with equal detail as more technical factors.

Choosing the right proper tool is important

in cost estimation process. The right

proper tool produce an accurate results.

The traditional common tool used in

estimating the cost is spreadsheet or

Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Project.

The biggest challenge in using the

traditional method is the level of accuracy.

Software development communities faced

difficulty to achieve high accuracy in

producing cost estimation result.

Therefore, many studies have been done to

develop automated tool for cost estimation

process. However, no one claimed their

proposed tool can produce accurate result.

HOW TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTY?

Uncertainty has no independent existence;

it is not an object which can be identified,

trapped and eliminated like a virus

invading the living organism of our

project. Uncertainty [12] naturally arises

out of complex situations and is therefore

an integral part of most projects. Each

project will have a different capacity for

uncertainty. This is a measure of how

much uncertainty the project can tolerate.

High risk projects, that is, typically novel

projects which are pursuing ambitious

goals where it is accepted that the

02468

10

PHASES

UN

CER

TAIN

TY

UNCERTAINTY IN DIFFERENT PHASES



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likelihood of failure is high, will have a

high capacity for uncertainty. The usual

response of industry to these challenges is

to manage uncertainty using a framework

in the figure 1.

The usual response of industry to these

[13] challenges is to manage uncertainty

using a framework in the above figure.

The figure illustrates flow of the activities

within the cost estimation managing

uncertainty and how they become

overlapped in time and iterated across.

Each step has an overlap with the next and

may require individuals to return to

previous steps to make updates or to

consider new uncertainties that had not

been previously identified.

EMPIRICAL RESULTS

Hypothesis Statement: To reduce

the cost challenges in cost estimation over

uncertainty factors that arises in the project

and program planning. If arises, how to

manage uncertainty factors in software

cost estimation.

To evaluate or prove the

Hypothesis statement CHI-SQUARE

Testing is implemented.

The chi-square formula used on

these data is

= (O - E)2/E

Where, O is the Observed Frequency in

each category

E is the Expected Frequency in the

corresponding category

df is the "degree of freedom" (n-1)

is Chi Square

Uncertainty Matrix is framed phases over

uncertainty factors matrix entries are

defined as,

CAUSES / PHASES

REQUIRE

MENT

PHASE

ANALYS

IS

PHASE

DESIG

N

PHAS

E

IMPLEM

ENTATIO

N PHASE

TESTIN

G

PHASE

MAINT

ENANC

E

PHASE

MANAGEMENT 1 1 1 1 1 1

PROJECT DESIGN 0 0 1 0 0 0

COMMUNICATION 1 1 1 1 1 1

STAFF

EXPERIENCE 0 0 1 1 1 1

FUNDING

PROBLEMS 1 1 0 1 0 0

USER’S RESPONSE 0 0 1 0 0 1

RESOURCES 1 1 1 1 1 1

PRICE CHANGES 1 0 0 1 0 1

TECHNICAL

FACTORS 0 1 1 1 1 1

OTHERS…… 1

UNCERTAINTY MATRIX

RECOGNIZE

ANALYSE

MINIMIZE

RECTIFY

Figure – 1 Managing Uncertainty



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1 If the uncertainty factor occur

in the phase.

0 If the Uncertainty factor does

not occur in the phase.

X2 0.05 table value (45) = 61.656

Actual value of Uncertainty Matrix is

16.8875

Thus the hypothesis statement is

proved.

CONCLUSION

They have been several issues raised

regarding uncertainty. It is proposed that a

formal definition and methodology is

required to improve the integrity of future

projects. Clear distinction between

uncertainty and process complexity must

be made to reduce the level of project

complexity and lack of understanding. A

method to identify uncertainties in a

simpler fashion that will allow those with

little experience to complete the tasks in

the time allocated without too much

involvement form experienced staff

members. This paper review the numbers

of Uncertainty factors are involved in the

software cost estimation and some of

which interact with each other. By

managing uncertainty we can recognize

the problems in causes then it can be

analysed. The analysed problem should be

minimized and rectified.

REFERENCES

[1] Paul.F.Dienemann, Estimating Cost

Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo

Techniques, The RAND Corporation.

[2] Stephen Ward and Chris Chapman,

Project Uncertainty Management as A

Desirable Future, School of Management,

University of Southampton, Highfield,

Southampton SO17 1BJ.

[3] Knut Samset, Project management in a

high uncertainty Situation, Norwegian

University of Science and Technology.

[4] Dov Dvir , Thomas Lechler, Plans are

nothing, changing plans is everything: the

impact of changes on project success.

[5] Amer Al-Rawas and Steve

Easterbrook, Communication Problems in

Requirements Engineering: A Field Study.

[6] Joakim Pernstal, Robert Feldt, Tony

Gorschek and Dan Floren,

Communications Problems in Software

Development – A Model and its Industrial

Application.

[7] Hamzah Abdul-Rahman, Chen Wang,

Roshana Takim and Szemin Wong, Project

Schedule influenced by Financial Issues:

Evidence in construction Industry.

[8] Margaret M.Burnett and Christopher

Scaffidi, End-User Development.

[9] Dr.Anne Touwen, Hand Book for

Projects: Development Management and

Fundraising.

[10] Winston Harrington, Richard

D.Morgenstern and Peter Nelson.On the

Accuracy of Regulatory Cost Estimates.

[11] Sommerville, Software Engineering,

Seventh Edition, Low Price Edition.

[12] David Cleden and Gower, Managing

Project Uncertainty – Uncertainty in

Project and Programme Plans.

[13] Erkoyuncu J.A, Roy. R, Shehab.E,

Wardle.P, Uncertainty challenges in

service cost estimation for product –

service systems in the aerospace and

defence industries



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