The Maize Forum - Agricultural Business Chamber - … Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC...
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17 October 2016 The Maize Forum Nico Hawkins General Manager
Transcript of The Maize Forum - Agricultural Business Chamber - … Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC...
17 October 2016
The Maize Forum
Nico Hawkins
General Manager
White Maize
White Maize: Supply & Demand(National vs. International) (Marketing season)
Estimate
2015/16
Projection
2016/17
Mt Mt
Opening stocks 1 282.6 1 307.9
Producer Deliveries 4 808.3 3 173.8
Imports 100.8 850.0
Total use (Local) 4 347 (a) 4 314.0 (a)
Exports 557.1 580.0
Closing stocks 1 307.9 (b) 512.6 (b)
(a) Including producer w ithdraw als end users
(b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures
Sources: SAGIS - 29 Sep '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '16, GMR: 29 Sep '16
International (USD A )
Projection
2016/17
'000t
Not
available
Not
available
Sep - Aug
White Maize
SAGIS NAMC
Actual
2015/16
'000t
May - Apr
White Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
8 000 000
9 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC
Ton Yield
White Maize:
Crop estimates vs. Weekly producer deliveriesMarketing season (1 March until 12 October 2016)
White Maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 AVE 2016/17
CEC Final Estimate 7 830 000 6 052 000 6 740 000 5 545 000 7 710 000 4 735 000 6 876 000 3 253 775
Early deliveries (Mar & Apr) 125 000 59 000 217 000 314 617 175 997 174 888 183 945 288 056
Deliveries from 1 May - 12 Oct 7 258 000 5 699 000 6 194 485 4 939 540 7 087 888 4 199 504 6 308 702 2 844 688
Total deliveries 7 383 000 5 758 000 6 411 485 5 254 157 7 263 885 4 374 392 6 492 647 3 132 744
% Delivered from final crop 94.3 95.1 95.1 94.8 94.2 92.4 94.4 96.3
On farm retentions 118 730 100 312 114 097 110 910 150 000 110 000 118 405 80 000
CEC for Commercial market 7 711 270 5 951 688 6 625 903 5 434 090 7 560 000 4 625 000 6 757 595 3 173 775
% Delivered for commercial
market95.7 96.7 96.8 96.7 96.1 94.6 96.1 98.7
White Maize: Imports & Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Raw material
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Imports Exports S&DEC
Ton
Other6.9%
Botswana30.2%
Lesotho21.7%
Namibia10.5%
Swaziland10.5%
Zimbabwe20.1%
White Maize Exports1 May - 7 Oct '16
Progr. Total: 223 281 ton
White Maize: Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 7 Oct ‘16)
Raw material – Major destinations
White Maize: Imports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 7 Oct ‘16)
Raw material – Major destinations
Mexico328 01195.1% United States
16 9554.9%
Imports: White Maize2016/17
Total: 344 966 ton
White Maize: Consumption
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
5 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION
Human Animal/industrial S&DEC
Ton
(2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Yellow Maize
Yellow Maize: Supply & Demand(National vs. International) (Marketing season)
Supply and Demand (RSA vs International)
Estimate
2015/16
Projection
2016/17
Mt Mt
Opening stocks 791.1 1 163.2 206.8 208.4
Producer Deliveries 4 986.1 3 933.1 969.8 1 026.5
Imports 1 862.8 1 850.0 135.5 131.9
Total use (Local) 6 165.1 (a) 5 902.0 (a) 968.2 1 018.6
Exports 322.7 350.0 135.5 131.9
Closing stocks 1 163.2 (b) 689.3 (b) 208.4 216.3
(a) Including producer w ithdraw als end users
(b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures
Sources: SAGIS - 29 Sep '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '16, GMR: 29 Sep '16
'000t
Yellow Maize
'000t
NAMC International (USD A )
Actual
2015/16
Projection
2016/17
SAGIS
May - Apr Sep - Aug
Yellow Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
YELLOW MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC
Ton Yield
(2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Yellow Maize:
Crop estimates vs. Weekly producer deliveriesProduction season (1 March until 12 October ‘16)
Yellow Maize 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 AVE 2016/17
CEC Final Estimate 4 985 000 4 308 000 5 090 000 6 145 000 6 540 000 5 238 950 5 366 143 4 283 100
Early deliveries (Mar & Apr) 129 000 116 000 360 000 526 969 321 361 358 659 284 619 449 955
Deliveries from 1 May - 12 Oct 4 241 000 3 659 000 4 271 646 5 086 243 5 598 172 4 307 174 4 525 294 3 385 730
Total deliveries 4 370 000 3 775 000 4 631 646 5 613 212 5 919 533 4 665 833 4 809 913 3 835 685
% Delivered from final crop 87.7 87.6 91.0 91.3 90.5 89.1 89.6 89.6
On farm retentions 408 213 373 764 319 431 346 900 400 000 350 000 370 265 350 000
CEC for Commercial market 4 576 787 3 934 236 4 770 569 5 798 100 6 140 000 4 888 950 4 995 878 3 933 100
% Delivered for commercial
market95.5 96.0 97.1 96.8 96.4 95.4 96.3 97.5
Yellow Maize: Imports & Exports
Raw material
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
2 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
YELLOW MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Imports Exports S&DEC
Ton
(2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Yellow Maize: Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 7 Oct ‘16)
Raw material – Major destinations
Botswana28.4%
Lesotho7.8%
Mozambique11.2%Zimbabwe
20.2%
Swaziland23.6%
Other8.9%
Yellow Maize Exports1 May - 7 Oct '16
Progr. Total: 113 525 ton
Yellow Maize: Imports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 7 Oct ‘16)
Raw material – Major destinations
Argentina660 477
88.9%
Brazil82 585
11.1%
Imports: Yellow Maize2016/17
Progr. Total: 743 062 ton
Yellow Maize: Consumption
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
YELLOW MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION
Human Animal/industrialS&DEC
Ton
(2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Total Maize
Total Maize: Supply & Demand(National vs. International) (Marketing season)
Estimate
2015/16
Projection
2016/17
Mt Mt
Opening stocks 2 073.7 2 471.1 206.8 208.4
Producer Deliveries 9 794.4 7 106.9 969.8 1 026.5
Imports 1 963.6 2 700.0 135.5 131.9
Total use (Local) 10 512.2 (a) 10 216.0 (a) 968.2 1 018.6
Exports 879.8 930.0 135.5 131.9
Closing stocks 2 471.1 (b) 1 201.9 (b) 208.4 216.3
(a) Including producer w ithdraw als end users
(b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures
Sources: SAGIS - 29 Sep '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '16, GMR: 29 Sep '16
Total Maize
SAGIS NAMC International (GM R )
Actual
2015/16
Projection
2016/17
'000t '000t
May - Apr Sep - Aug
Total Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates vs. SAGIS Deliveries (Marketing season)(1 March until 12 October ‘16)
White Yellow Total
Early deliveries (Mar & Apr) (tons) 288 056 449 955 738 011
Deliveries (May-Feb) (tons) 2 844 688 3 385 725 6 230 413
Total deliveries (tons) 3 132 744 3 835 680 6 968 424
CEC production estimate (tons) 3 253 775 4 283 100 7 536 875
Deliveries as % of CEC estimate (%) 96.3% 89.6% 92.5%
White Yellow Total
SAGIS deliveries up to date (tons) 3 132 744 3 835 680 6 968 424
Difference (NOK min SAGIS) 121 031 447 420 568 451
Expected deliveries after on farm consumption 3 173 775 3 933 100 7 106 875
Outstanding on CEC after adjustment (tons) 41 031 97 420 138 451
Remaining weeks for delivery 20 20 20
Delivery tempo needed to obtain CEC estimate 2 052 4 871 6 923
Deliveries as % of CEC estimate - retentions (%) 98.7 97.5 98.1
Delivery Estimate versus CEC Estimate
On farm consumption (tons) 80 000 350 000 430 000
2016/17 marketing year
Total Maize: Consumption
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
TOTAL MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION
Human Animal/industrial S&DEC
Ton
(2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Price Movements
FOB: Maize World Price
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
200
6-0
8-0
1
200
7-0
2-0
1
200
7-0
8-0
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8-0
2-0
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8-0
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1-0
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2-0
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2-0
8-0
1
201
3-0
2-0
1
201
3-0
8-0
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201
4-0
2-0
1
201
4-0
8-0
1
201
5-0
2-0
1
201
5-0
8-0
1
Maize World Prices- US NO3 YELLOW GULF (FOB) -US$/ton
Price Movements: Comparison SAFEX
2016/10/04 2016/09/05 2015/10/05
Price % Month Price % Year Price
R/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton
Future prices for Dec 2016
Yellow Maize 3061.00 -7.75 3318.00 4.12 2940.00
White Maize 3454.00 -15.14 4070.00 5.30 3280.00
Future prices for Mar 2017
Yellow Maize 3038.00 -5.92 3229.00 4.18 2916.00
White Maize 3414.00 -10.02 3794.00 5.53 3235.00
Source: SAFEX
Price Movements: Comparison CBOT
2016/10/04 2016/09/06 2015/10/05
Price % Month Price % Year Price
$/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton
US NO 3 Yellow Maize
December '16 137.08 6.03 129.29 -15.89 162.98
March '17 141.02 5.79 133.30 -15.32 166.53
Source: CBOT
Indicative import parity prices
USA Gulf Argentine
(no.3Y) Up River
Oct 16 Oct 16
$ / t $ / t
International FOB prices 165.00 175.00
Freight Rates 22.00 18.00
Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 0.50 0.53
1 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) $/t 187.50 193.53
Converted to R/t
R/$ Exchange rate on: 2016/10/04 13.6163 13.6163
R / t R / t
2 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) R/t 2553.06 2635.16
Financing cost 22.03 22.74
3 COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT AND FINANCING R/t 2575.09 2657.90
Discharging cost:
- Cape Tow n 122.93 122.93
- Durban 163.11 163.11
Import Tariff 0.00 0.00
4 FREE ON RAIL (FOR) R/t
- Cape Tow n 2698.02 2780.83
- Durban 2738.20 2821.01
Railage cost - Durban to Randfontein 246.10 246.10
5 DELIVERED
- Durban to Randfontein R/t 2984.30 3067.11
6 SAFEX Randfontein 3409.00 3409.00
Source: IGC
2016/10/04
Indicative export parity prices
USA Gulf Argentine
(no.3Y) Up River
Oct 16 Oct 16
$ / t $ / t
International FOB prices 165.00 175.00
Freight Rates 22.00 18.00
Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 0.50 0.53
1 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) $/t 187.50 193.53
Converted to R/t
R/$ Exchange rate on: 2016/10/04 13.6163 13.6163
R / t R / t
2 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) R/t 2553.06 2635.16
Financing cost 22.03 22.74
3 COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT AND FINANCING R/t 2575.09 2657.90
Discharging cost:
- Cape Tow n 122.93 122.93
- Durban 163.11 163.11
Import Tariff 0.00 0.00
4 FREE ON RAIL (FOR) R/t
- Cape Tow n 2698.02 2780.83
- Durban 2738.20 2821.01
Railage cost - Durban to Randfontein 246.10 246.10
5 DELIVERED
- Durban to Randfontein R/t 2984.30 3067.11
6 SAFEX Randfontein 3409.00 3409.00
Source: IGC
2016/10/04
SARS FOB Prices: ImportsPrevious years: May – April
2016/17: Progr. May – July ‘16
2014/15 2015/162016/17
May-Jul
ImportsQuantity
(Ton)68 615.207 1 835 626.107 461 482.416
Total value of
imports
FOB value
(R'000)152 360.98 4 588 463.09 1 422 366.12
Value per ton R/Ton 2 220.513 2 499.672 3 082.168
Source: SARS
1005.90.90 Maize Other
1005.90.10 Maize Kernels
SARS FOB Prices: ExportsPrevious years: May – April
2016/17: Progr. May – July ‘16
2014/15 2015/162016/17
May-Jul
ExportsQuantity
(Ton)1 493 490.566 756 433.985 221 842.874
Total value of
imports
FOB value
(R'000)3 961 956.92 2 762 435.19 976 161.61
Value per ton R/Ton 2 652.82 3 651.92 4 400.24
Source: SARS
1005.90.90 Maize Other
1005.90.10 Maize Kernels
Imports: SARS FOB Prices(Progr. May – July 2016)
Imports Tariff line 1005.90.90 Maize - Other
Tariff line 1005.90.10 Maize - Dried Kernels
Country TonFOB value
R'000Rand/ton
Argentina 244 196.025 593 763.85 2 431.50
Belgium 9.000 73.53 8 170.00
Brazil 3 571.490 27 458.27 7 688.18
Botswana 3.277 96.65 29 493.44
France 27.000 142.24 5 268.15
Hungary 0.700 21.23 30 328.57
Lesotho 48.155 226.50 4 703.56
Mexico 190 722.005 718 533.75 3 767.44
Swaziland 224.615 812.14 3 615.70
United Arab Emirates 0.001 0.16 160 000.00
United States 22 397.891 80 226.27 3 581.87
Unknown 7.257 31.65 4 361.31
Zambia 275.000 979.88 3 563.20
Total 461 482.416 1 422 366.12 3 082.17
Progr. May - Jul '16
Source: SARS
Exports: SARS FOB Prices(Progr. May – Jul 2016)
Exports Tariff line 1005.90.90 Maize - Other including:
Tariff line 1005.90.10 Maize - Dried Kernels
Country TonFOB value
R'000
Rand
per ton
Angola 0.010 0.10 10 000.00
Australia 5.000 34.13 6 826.00
Botswana 60 300.128 251 513.42 4 171.03
China 2 208.000 9 498.81 4 302.00
Congo Dem Rep Of 30.834 280.28 9 089.97
Coto D Ivoire 1 051.630 9 118.23 8 670.57
France 7.045 81.46 11 562.81
Gabon 0.012 0.02 1 666.67
Georgia 50.00 411.69 8 233.80
Germany 1.152 4.50 3 906.25
Ghana 200.46 1 708.33 8 522.01
India 75.000 668.66 8 915.47
Iraq 275.000 2 253.68 8 195.20
Japan 41.690 649.30 15 574.48
Kenya 225.000 2 149.73 9 554.36
Kuwait 0.100 67.55 675 500.00
Lesotho 33 494.413 114 676.29 3 423.74
Madagascar 0.889 11.34 12 755.91
Malawi 43.160 396.90 9 196.01
Country TonFOB value
R'000
Rand
per ton
Malaysia 99.792 918.49 9 204.04
Mauritius 903.000 5 042.08 5 583.70
Mozambique 17 284.361 70 270.91 4 065.58
Namibia 15 146.918 66 788.63 4 409.39
Nigeria 1.229 11.93 9 707.08
Russian Federation 74.980 643.73 8 585.36
Saint Helena 0.178 5.03 28 258.43
Seychelles 1.609 111.68 69 409.57
Singapore 70.887 638.83 9 011.95
Sri Lanka 75.000 701.47 9 352.93
Swaziland 31 388.186 116 533.61 3 712.66
Taiwan, Prof of China 150.096 1 283.50 8 551.19
Tanzania 0.156 4.95 31 730.77
Thailand 736.849 8 756.95 11 884.32
Togo 100.000 902.62 9 026.20
Uganda 1.313 16.24 12 368.62
United Arab Emirates 1 175.028 9 473.86 8 062.67
United Kingdom 75.094 621.86 8 281.09
Unknown 358.350 2 127.53 5 937.02
Zambia 74.149 810.57 10 931.64
Zimbabwe 56 116.175 296 972.72 5 292.11
Total 221 842.874 976 161.61 4 400.24
Progr. May - Jul '16
Source: SARS
Transport
Component
Transport componentMaize
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
MAIZE:TRANSPORT BY COMPONENT
Conveyor Belt Freight rail Road Transport
Maize Products
Maize Products manufactured per month
White
products
Yellow
products
Total
Maize
White
products
Yellow
products
Total
Maize
White
products
Yellow
products
Total
Maize
Maize Chop 106 604 14 903 121 507 1 260 412 153 756 1 414 168 29.7 30.9 29.8
Maize Rice 665 134 799 8 035 6 634 14 669 0.2 1.3 0.3
Maize Grits 3 761 24 939 28 700 39 028 217 591 256 619 0.9 43.7 5.4
Samp 11 183 331 11 514 114 206 12 966 127 172 2.7 2.6 2.7
Sifted Maize Meal 3 891 2 869 6 760 30 978 30 332 61 310 0.7 6.1 1.3
Special Maize Meal 29 902 2 835 32 737 438 906 20 633 459 539 10.3 4.1 9.7
Super Maize Meal 185 901 2 288 188 189 2 239 419 15 361 2 254 780 52.8 3.1 47.5
Unsifted Maize Meal 889 132 1 021 14 044 2 040 16 084 0.3 0.4 0.3
Other Maize Products that
are intended for human
consumption8 812 3 367 12 179 99 863 39 023 138 886 2.4 7.8 2.9
Total 351 608 51 798 403 406 4 244 891 498 336 4 743 227 100 100 100
Whole maize milled 343 507 55 898 399 405 4 235 982 539 458 4 775 440
Diff milled and products -8 101 4 100 -4 001 -8 909 41 122 32 213
% Chop 30 29 30 30 31 30
% of Total Manufactured
Ton
Aug '16
Ton
MAIZE PRODUCTS
Progr. Sep '15 - Aug '16
Ton
White Maize ProductsProgr. Sep ‘15 – Aug ‘16 (12 months)
Super2 239 419
75.0%
Special438 90614.7%
Sifted30 9781.0%
Unsifted14 0440.5%
Other261 132
8.7%
White Maize Meal Products(Sep '15 - Aug '16)
Total Human Consumption: 2 984 479
Yellow Maize ProductsProgr. Sep ‘15 – Aug ‘16 (12 months)
Maize Chop153 75630.9%
Maize Rice6 6341.3%
Maize Grits217 59143.7%
Sifted30 3326.1%
Other90 02318.1%
Yellow Maize Meal Products(Sep '15 - Aug '16)
Total Human Consumption: 498 336
Maize Products: ConsumptionProgr. Sep ‘15 – Aug ‘16 (12 months)
Per capita consumptionMaize
products
Wheat
products
Manufactured 3 329 059 3 137 080
+ Imports 11 659 5 274
- Exports -69 532 -14 353
Total "consumed" 3 271 186 3 128 001
Total population 53 491 000 53 491 000
Per capita consumption (Kg) 61.15 58.48
12 months (1 Sep '15 - 31 Aug '16)
Maize products: Year on year price changes
2016 2015 2014
Price Price Price
R R R
Special Maize 2.5kg 25.17 66.14 15.15 -3.93 15.77
Maize Super 5kg 52.86 38.81 38.08 14.60 33.23
*White Maize Safex 4196.71 3.61 4050.60 9.54 3697.81
* Average spot price
Source: SA Statistics & JSE Safex
August
% Year
on
Year
% Year
on
Year
Maize Products: Index
152.09151.72
117.35
168.24
191.90
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
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v-1
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Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
MAIZE PRODUCTS INDEX
(Special Maize) Mealie meal/Maize flour 1 Kg
(Special Maize) Mealie meal/Maize flour 2.5 Kg
Super Maize 1 Kg
Super Maize 2.5 Kg
SAFEX Spot price White Maize
%% %% %% %% %% %% %% %%
Maize General
Co-workers
Processors34470%
Harbour silo owners
184%
Traders
6213%
End consumers316%
Storers
357%
Maize: Firms registered with SAGIS
Total firms: 490
Board of Directors
Chairperson
Dr JL Purchase
Director
Ms N Mahlathi
Alternate Director
Mr JF de Villiers
The Maize Industry is represented by:
The following parties makes it possible for
SAGIS to fulfil our commitments:
The Maize Trust
The Maize Forum
Relevant Associations
Board of Directors
Co-workers
Staff
Gratitude
Thank you
Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS’ website under SAGIS information,
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