The magnificent seven€¦ · magnificent seven The seven unavoidable global trends facing your...
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The magnificent seven The seven unavoidable global trends facing your business today Panel of experts 1. Bigger politics 10% -50% 2. Protectionism rising 4. Italian banking crisis 5. Monetary endgame 6. Austerity blues 7. Re-emerging markets €360bn 3. The conundrum of global productivity World First has assembled a panel of leading economists and analysts to assess the trends facing us over the rest of 2016, including Stephanie Flanders from JP Morgan Asset Management, Fiona Greiner of Matchesfashion.com, Linda Yueh from University of Oxford, economist Sony Kapoor and Dr Paola Subacchi from Chatham House. Linda Yueh, University of Oxford economist and adjunct professor of Economics at London Business School. Dr Paola Subacchi, director of the International Economics Department at Chatham House. Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe, JP Morgan Asset Management. Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Source: Conference Board, a US think tank – output per hour Source: IMF and OECD Source: Bank of England and World Bank Linda Yueh’s assessment of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s plan to eliminate US national debt within eight years. “It would require the US economy to grow at 10% every year or he would have to cut government spending by half every year for the next eight years.” The estimated value of non-performing loans held by Italy’s banks. By comparison, Italy’s GDP is $2.2 trillion, putting the debts at nearly 20% of the country’s economy. Dr Paola Subacchi, director of the International Economics Department at Chatham House. Linda Yueh, University of Oxford economist and adjunct professor of Economics at London Business School. “Governments should reflect on whether austerity has exacerbated discontent and how an active policy approach would help address the issue of those who have felt left out of globalisation.” Dr Paola Subacchi, director of the International Economics Department at Chatham House. Sony Kapoor, managing director of think tank Re-Define Source: IMF Advanced economies Emerging markets World -13.8% Trade flows crossing borders fell 13.8% in 2015. DEBT If you would like to speak to WorldFirst to find out how we can support your currency and international payment needs, contact us on +44 20 3411 6748 or 0808 274 5461, or visit www.worldfirst.com for more information. %GDP growth & projections How they shape up: UK GDP growth & base rate 2005-2015 2015 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.6% 2016 2017 ‘05 1999-2006 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 UK base rate UK GDP Falling US productivity growth 2014 2015
Transcript of The magnificent seven€¦ · magnificent seven The seven unavoidable global trends facing your...
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The magnificent sevenThe seven unavoidable global trends facing your business today
Panel of experts
1. Bigger politics
10% -50%
2. Protectionism rising
4. Italian banking crisis
5. Monetary endgame
6. Austerity blues
7. Re-emerging markets
€360bn
3. The conundrum of global productivity
World First has assembled a panel of leading economists and analysts to assess the trends facing us over the rest of 2016, including Stephanie Flanders from JP Morgan Asset Management, Fiona Greiner of Matchesfashion.com, Linda Yueh from University of Oxford, economist Sony Kapoor and Dr Paola Subacchi from Chatham House.
Linda Yueh, University of Oxford economist and adjunctprofessor of Economics at London Business School.
Dr Paola Subacchi, director of the International EconomicsDepartment at Chatham House.
Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe, JP Morgan Asset Management.
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Source: Conference Board, a US think tank – output per hour
Source: IMF and OECD
Source: Bank of England and World Bank
Linda Yueh’s assessment of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s plan to eliminate US national debt within eight years.
“It would require the US economy to grow at 10% every year or he would have to cut government spending by half every year for the next eight years.”
The estimated value of non-performing loans held by Italy’s banks. By comparison, Italy’s GDP is $2.2 trillion, putting the debts at nearly 20% of the country’s economy.
Dr Paola Subacchi, director of the International EconomicsDepartment at Chatham House.
Linda Yueh, University of Oxford economist and adjunctprofessor of Economics at London Business School.
“Governments should reflect on whether austerity has exacerbated discontent and how an active policy approach would help address the issue of those who have felt left out of globalisation.”
Dr Paola Subacchi, director of the International EconomicsDepartment at Chatham House.
Sony Kapoor, managing director of think tank Re-Define
Source: IMF
Advanced economies Emerging marketsWorld
-13.8%Trade flows crossing borders
fell 13.8% in 2015.
DEBT
If you would like to speak to WorldFirst to find out how we can support your currency and international payment needs, contact us on +44 20 3411 6748 or 0808 274 5461, or visit www.worldfirst.com for more information.
%GDP growth & projections
How they shape up: UK GDP growth & base rate 2005-2015
2015 1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
3.1%
3.2%
3.5%
4.0%
4.1%
4.6%
2016
2017
‘05
1999-2006
2.4%
0.5% 0.3%
654321
0-1-2-3-4-5
‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15
UK base rate
UK GDP
Falling US productivity growth
2014 2015
