THE LTLS INTEGRATED MODEL · Trent at Dunham (28022) Observed flow (m3/s) Model flow (m3/s) River...
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THE LTLS INTEGRATED MODEL Vicky Bell , Pam Naden, Helen Davies + LTLS modelling team (Ed Tipping, Shibu Muhammed, Jess Davies, Ulli Dragosits, John Quinton, Marianne Stuart, Andy Whitmore, Ed Carnell, Sam Tomlinson, Lei Wang, Lianhai Wu, Rachel Helliwell) Semi-Natural Terrestrial Model (N14CP)
Transcript of THE LTLS INTEGRATED MODEL · Trent at Dunham (28022) Observed flow (m3/s) Model flow (m3/s) River...
THE LTLS INTEGRATED MODEL
Vicky Bell, Pam Naden, Helen Davies + LTLS modelling team (Ed Tipping, Shibu Muhammed, Jess Davies,
Ulli Dragosits, John Quinton, Marianne Stuart, Andy Whitmore, Ed Carnell, Sam Tomlinson, Lei Wang, Lianhai Wu, Rachel Helliwell)
Semi-Natural Terrestrial Model (N14CP)
LTLS: Integrated Model (IM)
Low flow
High flow
Hydrological model behind IM incorporates basic
properties of:
• soil
• land cover
• topography
Nutrient leaching
Fluxes from river model
Atmospheric deposition
Lakes
Groundwater delay
ErosionNutrient runoff from Semi-natural, Crops and Improved grass
Sewage
Typical hydrological output can be daily/monthly/...LTLS output can be daily/monthly/... And compared to obs. from HMS
Integrated Model Processes
Runoff Production of water & macronutrients
5km grid, HWSD soil
Kinematic wave routing
Of water, dissolved andparticulate nutrients
+ sediment loss to floodplain
Erosion
• Particulate nutrients• Varying crop LAI• Annual grids of
land-use and grazing
Groundwater chemistry and delays
Delays in nutrient transport from 1 to100 years
Lake model
Tipping et al., STOTEN, 2016
Riverine processes
• Denitrification • Organic matter decomposition • Oxidation of ammonia• Degassing• pH• Chlorophyll growth
Sewage
Addition of sewage effluent and septic tanks
Daily flow hydrographs: 1985
0
200
400
600
800
1 92 183 274 365Fl
ow
(m
^3/s
)
Thames at Teddington (39001)
0
500
1000
1 92 183 274 365
Flo
w (
m^3
/s)
Tweed at Norham (21009)
0
200
400
600
1 92 183 274 365
Flo
w (
m^3
/s)
Trent at Dunham (28022)
Observed flow (m3/s)Model flow (m3/s)
River variables modelled
flux accounting through the river system
Dissolved load (g) Particulate load (g) Other
DIC inorganic carbon Fine sediment pH
DOC organic carbon POC labile and non-labile Oxygen (mg/L)
DO14C PO14C Algae (mg/L)
NO3-N & NH4-N Water Temperature (⁰C)
DON organic nitrogen PON
TDP total phosphorus POP
PADS particle-adsorbed P
Ca, SO4-S, Si
CO2 & (N2 + N2O) GASES
Sources of Nitrate: terrestrial inputs and fluxes (Tonnes)
1995 totals
Semi-natural Arable+ Improved Grass Sewage
Terrestrial model Input of N
Modelled river fluxes
Harmonised Monitoring site (HMS) observations are from 1974 – 2010Observed sewage from WWTW
Annual N and P fluxes (vs) observed
N.B. Harmonised Monitoring Sites are monitoring orthophosphate not TDP
TDP flux (Tonnes/year)
Observed
Nitrate flux (Tonnes/year)
Observed
Mo
del
led
Nitrate flux (Tonnes/yr) for selected HMS catchments
Thames
ModelObserved
Harmonised Monitoring site (HMS) observations are compared to LTLS model estimatesHMS Observations are from 1974 – 2010, observed sewage (1990 – 2005)
Dissolved P flux (Tonnes/yr) for selected HMS catchments
Thames
Harmonised Monitoring site (HMS) observations are compared to LTLS model estimatesHMS Observations are from 1974 – 2010, observed sewage (1990 – 2005)
ModelObserved
Exploring change since 1800…
National simulations from 1800 – 2010
Driven by - climate model hindcasts (1800 –1960)
- observed weather (1961-2010)
We apply historical changes in land-cover, fertiliser and sewage
FertiliserapplicationRates (kg/ha)
Wheat N Improved Grass N Wheat P Improved Grass P
Urban
UK land use change (%)
Semi-natural
Improved GrassArable
Conifer
Effect of groundwater delay
Wang et al. (2012)
Environ Geochem Health 35:667–681.
• Multi-year ‘storage’ of nitrate in the
unsaturated and saturated zones
• For most UK catchments the effect of the groundwater delay is negligible
No delayWith delay
History of nutrients from sewage in the IM
Estimating nutrient emissions
Population * Emission factor
1801 201119511911 Population per
5km grid square
0 - 9
10 - 99
100 - 999
1000 – 9999
≥10,000
contains National Statistics
data under the Open
Government License v.3.0
© Crown copyright and
database right 2012.
Past based on
protein intake
Past based on
constant for diet
plus detergent P
Estimating nutrients in effluent
Emissions * connection to sewer * (1 - loss on treatment)
Raw Primary Secondary Tertiary P stripping
DIN 0.75 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
DIP 0.67 0.67 0.42 0.35 0.16
Nitrate aspropn DIN
0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9
Proportion left after sewage treatment
History of nutrients from sewage in the IM
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
phosphoru
s f
lux
(kt/yr)
P from septic tanks
organic P
dissolved inorganic P
primary treatmentraw sewage secondary + tertiaryAssumed
treatment
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
nitro
gen f
lux
(kt/yr)
N from septic tanks
organic nitrogen
nitrate
ammonium
Naden et al., STOTEN, 2016
1830 1890 1950
Historical-current LTLS IM run (1800-2010)
River nitrate fluxes for selected catchments (T/Yr)
HMS Observations are from 1974 – 2010 Longer historical records for Frome, Thames and Tweed Population-based sewage estimates
ModelHMS Observed
Historical-current LTLS IM run (1800-2010)
River Phosphorus fluxes for selected catchments (T/yr)
HMS Observations are from 1974 – 2010 Longer historical records for Frome and Tweed Population-based sewage estimates
ModelHMS Observed
0
1
2
3
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
UK Nutrient Sources: 1800 to 2000
• Nitrogen inputs to England dominated by improved grass in early 19thC, and arable and sewage in late 20thC
Source:ArableSewageSemi-naturalImproved grass
Total Dissolved Nitrogen (T/km2/yr)Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales
0
1
2
3
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
England
0
1
2
3
4
5
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
UK Nutrient Sources: 1800 to 2000
• Minimal arable sources• High dissolved carbon
inputs to Scotland arising from peat
Source:ArableSewageSemi-naturalImproved grass
Total Dissolved Carbon (organic + inorganic) (T/km2/yr)
Scotland
Northern Ireland
WalesEngland
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 20000
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
UK Nutrient Sources: 1800 to 2000
• TDP inputs heavily dependent on sewage and its treatment
Source:ArableSewageSemi-naturalImproved grass
Total Dissolved Phosphorus (T/km2/yr)Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales England
Future sewage scenarios
P1: population projections from Office of National Statistics to
2089; extended in proportion to UN projections to 2100
emission and treatment factors held constant
P2: population as above; P stripping applied everywhere
Future scenario results
Population
million
Nitrogen emissions
kT/yr
Nitrate*sewage
flux
kT/yr
Pemissions
kT/yr
P sewage
flux
kT/yr
P sewage
flux with stripping
kT/yr
2010 63 263 91 44 13 7
2030 72 299 103 50 15 8
2050 78 325 112 54 17 8
2100 92 283 132 63 20 10
Influent to be treated at WWTWs
Effluent flux to river/sea
NB. Phosphate dosing not included in P calculations.
*ammonium flux 10kT/yr rising to 15 kT/yr
UK Fluxes into the sea: 1800-2010 + future sewage scenarios
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1820 1920 2020
Year
NO3-N load
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
Sediment load
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
TDP load
UK Fluxes (Tonnes/year)Historical-currentP1 Population increaseP2 Population increase
+ P-stripping everywhere
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
DOC load
2010
Historical development of eutrophication in rivers
Water Framework Directive standards for annual mean P in rivers:o Good ecological status is 40 to 120 μg/litre (UKTAG, 2012)
TDP (μg/litre)0 – 100100 – 10001000 – 1000010000 - 370000
1800 1900 1940 2010
TDP (μg/litre)0 – 100>100
23 μg/l 66 μg/l 179 μg/l 366 μg/l
Thank you… questions welcome
0
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1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
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1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
100
200
300
400
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
100
200
300
400
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
UK Nutrient Sources: 1800 to 2000
• Nitrogen inputs to England dominated by improved grass in early 19thC, and arable and sewage in late 20thC
Source:ArableSewageSemi-naturalImproved grass
Total Dissolved Nitrogen (kT/yr)Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales
England
UK Nutrient Sources: 1800 to 2000
• Minimal arable sources• High dissolved carbon
inputs to Scotland arising from peat
Source:ArableSewageSemi-naturalImproved grass
Total Dissolved Carbon (organic + inorganic) (Kt/yr)
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales
England
0
100
200
300
400
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
100
200
300
400
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
100
200
300
400
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
100
200
300
400
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
10
20
30
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
10
20
30
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
10
20
30
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
UK Nutrient Sources: 1800 to 2000
• TDP inputs heavily dependent on sewage and its treatment
Source:ArableSewageSemi-naturalImproved grass
Total Dissolved Phosphorus (Kt/yr)Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales
England
0
10
20
30
1830 1900 1940 1960 1980 2000
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