Institute for Transport Studies

Institute for Transport Studies FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

The Longevity of Behaviour Change: A Case

Study of the London 2012 Olympic and

Paralympic Games

UTSG 2015

5th January 2015

Stephen Parkes

Atos (2012) Rex (2012)

Overview

• Background to the research

– Case study: the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics

– Four-wave longitudinal panel survey

– Application of a theoretical model - The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)

• Key findings discussed

– Substantial degree of behaviour change occurred

during the Games (54% made at least one change)

– Some changes were sustained post-Games but these

were limited in the longer-term

– Greater understanding of the underlying factors

affecting change in disruptive contexts, and the

distinctions between different types of change

Source: Transport for London

London 2012

• The Olympics – “The greatest show on Earth”

– ‘Major-event’ placing significant pressures on host city

– Up to 800,000 extra journeys on busiest day during London

2012 (Sumner, 2012)

• Great deal of planning to keep system moving

…but it can go wrong – Atlanta 1996

• Travel Demand Management was a key part of the London

preparations

− Behaviour change to complement

infrastructural improvements

Catchpole (2012)

Source: Transport for London

London 2012

Travel Hotspots

Urban Times (2012)

London 2012

• Overall performance reported as positive

• Increased pressure on system but it still coped well

– e.g. 28% increase in underground journeys on same time in 2011

(TfL, 2012, p.162)

• Examples of isolated disruptions but wider system not

compromised:

Panel Survey

• Collaboration between the Institute for Transport Studies and TfL

– TfL commissioned 3-wave panel survey (carried out by AECOM)

– Wave 4 survey conducted by ITS in partnership with TfL

• Examined commute, business travel and non-work journeys

before, during and after the Games

The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)

• Developed by Prochaska and DiClemente in the late 1970s

• Originated in the health behaviour field but has been used in the

study of travel behaviour – however it is used here in an

exploratory role

• Used to study behaviour at the individual level, focusing on the

psychological factors that can influence change

• Sees change as a process that an individual progresses through

as they make a change to behaviour

The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)

1. The stages of change

2. Processes of change

3. Self-efficacy

4. Decisional balance

Pre-

contemplation Contemplation Preparation Action Maintenance

I am not

considering

changing the

way I normally

travel to work.

I am considering

changing the

way I normally

travel to work

but I am not in

aa position to

make this

change yet.

I am doing

things to

prepare myself

to change the

way I travel to

work.

I have tried

changing the

way I travel to

work once or

twice since the

beginning of this

year.

I have regularly

tried changing

the way I travel

to work since

the beginning of

this year.

The Transtheoretical Model (TTM)

(Adapted from Burkholder and Nigg, 2002; Nigg et al.,2011)

Pre-

contemplation

Contemplation

Preparation

Action

Maintenance

Helping

relationships

Social liberation

Social liberation

Self-re-

evaluation

Social liberation

Self-re-

evaluation

Self-liberation

Self-liberation

Stimulus control

Contingency

management

Counter-

conditioning

Helping

relationships

Helping

relationships

Social liberation

Self-efficacy at

lowest

Self-efficacy

increasing

Self-efficacy

increasing

Rapid increase

in self-efficacy

Self-efficacy

peaks

What happened during the Games?

• Significant amount of change to commute journeys

– 54% of people made at least one change to their commute

– 25% made more than one change

• More changes for those with a greater preparedness to change

Reducing and Re-timing Journeys

• Reducing (31%) or re-timing (25%) journeys most common

• Reducing more likely in those with less preparedness to change

Sustaining Changes Post-Games

Short-term (Wave 3):

• 6% of the sample sustained their changes after the Games

• Working from home (WFH) continued at the Games-time level

• Analysis of socio-demographics showed there were no statistical

differences between those who sustained and those who did not

Long-term (Wave 4):

• Levels of WFH have continued to be maintained

• Other changes have not generally been sustained (e.g. only a

very small proportion continuing to sustain changes in mode)

Value of the TTM

• The processes of change helped to highlight the apparent

distinctions between types of change

• Self-efficacy particularly important for changing modes

Processes of change Reduced Re-timed Re-moded Re-routed

Environmental Re-evaluation *** Social Liberation ** *** * Helping Relationships Self Liberation *** * Counter Conditioning * * Stimulus Control *** *** * * Contingency Management Self-re-evaluation *** *** * *Significant at < .05 **Significant at < .005 ***Significant at < .001

Two-step Cluster Analysis

• However, the TTM did not reflect people’s ability to adapt their

travel behaviour over a short-term period

• A two-step cluster analysis was conducted to explore

inconsistencies shown in the TTM

• 8 Processes of change and 7 self-efficacy items tested

• Produced four clusters that did not match to the theoretical

expectations of the TTM

Two-step Cluster Analysis

1

2

3

4

5

Reluctant Changers

Easy Re-moders

Difficult Adaptors

Able Inactive

Strongly Agree

Agree

Neither

Disagree

Strongly Disagree

Two-step Cluster Analysis

Clusters (%)

Type of

change

made

Easy Re-

moders

(n=173)

Able Inactive

(n=137)

Difficult

Adaptors

(n=149)

Reluctant

Changers

(n=231)

Any Change 72 65.2 63.4 61.3

Reduce 38.7 32.8 33.6 34.6

Re-mode 24.7 10.4 12 15.9

Re-route 21 17.2 21.8 21.5

Re-time 43.2 32.8 29.6 34.1

The degree of change amongst the clusters

Conclusions

• As a catalyst for change, the Games was highly effective but

these changes were not sustained in the long-term

– Many people in the sample showed a flexibility to adapt their behaviour in the

short-term

• The TTM provided some insights but the lack of fit of the data to

the model raises questions about its applicability to the transport

disruption context

• The clusters however showed the value of the processes of

change and self-efficacy constructs

• These may help to identify likelihood of people making a particular

change, and also emphasises the apparent distinctions between

the types of change

Acknowledgements

This research forms part of my PhD, which was supervised by Professor

Greg Marsden and Dr Ann Jopson.

I am grateful to Transport for London for their co-operation and support in

commissioning the panel survey, which was essential for this research. I

would also like to thank AECOM for their work on the panel survey.

The opinions expressed in this presentation are solely those of the

presenter and not necessarily those of Transport for London.

Thank you.

Any questions?

Email: ts10sdp@leeds.ac.uk

References

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