Rankia Octubre 2016

Stock Picking Dilemma

CFL OperacionesEBIT (1-t)- (Inv. Inmov.-Amort.)- Var. Capital Circulante= CFLO

Empresa en Madurez con crecimientos constantes para siempre

Valor Act. Operativos + caja y act. no operat =Valor Empresa- Valor Deuda=Valor Equity

Tasa Libre de Riesgo:- Sin riesgo impago- Sin riesgo de reinversión- En misma moneda y terminos (real o nominal como los cash flows generados)

Beta- medida riesgo sobre mdo

Prima de Riesgo- riesgo de la inversión media en los mercados

Tipo Negocio

Apalanc. Operativo

Riesgo Acciones

Riesgo País

Coste Equity Pond. valores de mercadoCoste Deuda = (T.L.R + Spread)* (1-t)

V. Residual = FCLOn+1/(r-gn)

FCLO1 FCLO2 FCLO3 FCLO4 FCLO5 FCLOn

Descuento al CMPC= C.Equity*(Equity / (Deuda+Equity)) + C. Deuda*(Deuda / (Deuda+Equity))

Infinito

+ x

Crecimiento EsperadoTasa Reinversión * ROC

Apalanc. Financiero

Descuento Flujo de Caja Libre Operaciones

Price Earning Ratio

We solve the growth problem with de P/E adjusted by long term growth estimated.

Price Earnings =𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒

𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒

• Stocks with higher (or more certain) forecast earnings growth usually have a higher P/E, and those expected to have lower (or riskier) earnings growth usually have a lower P/E.

• Investors can use the P/E ratio to compare the value of stocks: if one stock has a P/E twice that of another stock, all things being equal (especially the earnings growth rate), it is a less attractive investment.

• The P / E has to incorporate the expected earnings growth for increase the use of this ratio. Simple methods are the PEG or the Graham formula of intrinsec value.

Years for recovery ourinvestment with

earnings

Price Earning Ratio & EPS Long Term Growth

Between 11 and 12 years with the earningspayback Inditex price stock (30€)

The annual EPS growth change the EPS estimate and the years for recovery our

investment

The EPS annual growth rate can be higher orlower than the usually rate for “g” in the

Gordon Model or in Terminal Value for theFCFF Model

Price Earning Ratio & EPS LT Growth

Our first choice at the discretion of P/E is Statoil to have the lowest ratio.

But when you consider the estimated earnings per share growth is not our best

option

Ambuja is a good option in terms of the benefits, however it is a region with higher

rates of interest than the rest. It is not comparable with the rest of listed shares

Years of pay back with a P/E ratio and a long term EPS growth

Discounted Cash Flow & Cost of Equity

Balance Sheet

Income Stament

Free Cash Flow to Firm

Cost of Capital

Terminal Value

Debt

Control Premium

Non operating assets

Liquidity discount

Equity value

DFCF

CEquity = Risk Free Rate + L * Equity Premium Risk

L=U * [1 + ( D / E )]

Cost of Equity

Sensivity Earnings Growth

Price =𝑑0 ∗(1+𝑔)

(𝐶𝑒 −𝑔)

Growth rate “g” in Gordon model has to be near 3% while in TheLogicValue model is not necessary

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