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Transcript of The Local Elections Media Briefing - The Political Studies … 2014 Local... · · 2014-04-30The...
The Local ElectionsMedia Briefing
Tuesday 29th April
John Curtice, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
0141 548 4223 / [email protected]
Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, Professors of Politics, ElectionsCentre, University of Plymouth
01752 [email protected] / [email protected]
Tel: 020 7330 9289Email: [email protected]
UKIP Varia)on
% UKIP in last Poll
ComRes (O) 20
Surva)on (O) 20
Opinium (O) 18
YouGov (O) 15
Ipsos MORI 15
Populus (O) 13
ComRes 12
ICM 11
S)ll Dispropor)onately at Tories’ Expense
14 15
4
7 8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Apr. 13 Apr. 14
% 2010 vote now
sup
por7ng UKIP
Con
Lab
LD
S)ll The Main Des)na)on for Tory Defectors
66 63
23 22
11 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr. 13 Apr. 14
% Tory Defectors SWitched
To
UKIP
Lab
LD/Oth
But Importance to UKIP Should Not Be Exaggerated
38 34
9 13 12 13
41 41
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr. 13 Apr. 14
% UKIP Supp
ort C
omes From
Con Lab LD Oth/UKIP/DNV
Profile of UKIP Support
8
16 16
11 11
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
< 34 > 65 Men Women ABC1 C2DE
% UKIP
Coali)on Regained Reputa)on for Economic Competence?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% managing economy well
Source: YouGov
Recovery of Trust in Tories
31 30 30 29
25 26 24 25 26 25 27
23 25
27
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Trust Cameron/Osborne to run economy
Source: ComRes
But Note
78 80
16
26
8 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Aug. 11 Mar. 14
% trust C
ameron
/Osborne
on
econ
omy
Con
UKIP
None
Source: ComRes
UKIP Supporters Are Rela)vely Pessimis)c
20
74
-‐37
7 1
34
-‐50
1
-‐60
-‐40
-‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
YG -‐ Household MORI -‐ Na)on
Net Evalua7
on
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Sa)sfac)on with Cameron Not Really Recovered
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sa)sfied Dissa)sfied
Source: Ipsos MORI
Where Are the LD Voters Now?
9 10
31 30
45
39
8 11
6 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Apr. 13 Apr. 14
Con
Lab
LD
UKIP
Grn
Labour S)ll to Convince on Economy
18 18 21
15
19 22
20 20
24 21 20 20 20 19 20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Trust Miliband/Balls to run economy
Source: ComRes
Miliband S)ll In The Doldrums
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 Oct-‐10
Dec-‐10
Feb-‐11
Apr-‐11
Jun-‐11
Aug-‐11
Oct-‐11
Dec-‐11
Feb-‐12
Apr-‐12
Jun-‐12
Aug-‐12
Oct-‐12
Dec-‐12
Feb-‐13
Apr-‐13
Jun-‐13
Aug-‐13
Oct-‐13
Dec-‐13
Feb-‐14
Apr-‐14
Sa)sfied Dissa)sfied
Source: Ipsos-‐MORI
Comparisons
39
28 31
23 24
16
37
31
19
14 10 9
6
17 13
27
4 8
3 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
May 09 Polls Euro09 Apr 14 Polls Euro Polls
Con Lab LD UKIP Grn
Degree of Euro Defec)on to UKIP
18
7 6
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Con Lab LD
Current Westminster Preference
% vote UKIP in Euros
The Local Elections
Media Briefing
Tuesday 29th April
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
English Local Elections 2014
Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher
The Elections Centre
Plymouth University
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
By-election model since 2010 general election
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
By-election model in Conservative territory
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
By-election model in Labour territory
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Lib Dem contestation
London and Met boroughs
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Lib Dem vote share
London and Met boroughs
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Lib Dem seat share
London and Met boroughs
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
National equivalent vote 2001-13
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Con 31 34 35 37 31 39 40 43 35 35 38 33 26
Lab 39 33 30 26 34 26 26 24 22 28 37 39 29
LD 25 25 27 27 27 25 24 23 25 25 16 15 13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
NE
V%
Source: Rallings/Thrasher, The Sunday TimesPolitical Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Forecast & Actual 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
ConLab
LDUKIP
Forecast
NEV
Con Lab LD UKIP
Forecast 29 38 16 11
NEV 26 29 13 22Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Coming from nowhere
Pattern
2009-2013
Con Lab LD UKIP
UKIP candidate in
2009-6.2 6.8 -10.1 11.1
No UKIP in 2009-11.8 6.2 -13.0 24.2
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
A new third party…
By-elections contested
%
contested won Ave % vote
2012 122/214 57 11.3
UKIPJan-Apr
201327/49 55 17.8
after
May
2013
163/204 80 7 21.4
2012 164/214 77 22.1
LDJan-Apr
201339/49 80 20.6
after
May
2013
138/204 68 18 15.3Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Lowering the threshold for victory in the shires
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Mean % share for winning candidate in county elections
46%
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Differences among party winners in 2013
Mean % share Std. deviation
Conservative 46.6 10.4
Labour 49.1 12.7
Lib Dem 43.5 10.2
UKIP 37.3 6.6
Established parties win in heartlands; UKIP is slipping through the middle
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
UKIP 2013 in councils with 2014 elections
District UKIP share 2013 UKIP seats 2013
Adur 37.1 3 ex 6
Great Yarmouth 36.4 5 ex 9
Huntingdonshire 34.0 6 ex 13
Castle Point 33.7 2 ex 5
Eastleigh 33.1 3 ex 7
Basildon 32.2 3 ex 5
Redditch 31.1 2 ex 4
Rushmoor 30.9 1 ex 5
Worthing 30.3 1 ex 9
Havant 30.0 1 ex 6
Tunbridge Wells 30.0 1 ex 6
Runnymede 29.5 0 ex 6
Broxbourne 29.3 0 ex 6
Daventry 28.9 1 ex 7
Harlow 28.3 0 ex 3
Newcastle-under-Lyme 28.3 1 ex 9
Rochford 28.2 1 ex 5
Epping Forest 26.7 0 ex 7
Brentwood 25.7 0 ex 4
Basingstoke & Deane 25.2 0 ex 10
Cannock Chase 25.2 0 ex 6
Reigate & Banstead 25.0 0 ex 10Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Councils up in 2014
Con Lab LD Ind NOC
London 11 17 2 - 2
Mets 2 29 - - 5
Unitaries 4 12 1 2
Districts 36 19 5 14
Total 53 77 8 - 23
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Seats up in 2014** approximate owing to boundary changes
Con Lab LD Ind/Other
London 712 870 246 23
Mets 150 517 133 15
Unitaries 130 176 76 12
Districts 582 225 277 72
Total 1574 1788 732 122
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Smaller parties
Ind Green BNP UKIP Other
London 2 2 - - 19
Mets 6 2 1 - 6
Unitaries 9 2 - - 1
Districts 25 12 1 1 33
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
National Equivalent Vote ‘forecast’
2014 + (polls)**as at 25/4/2014
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Change on 2010
Con Lab LD UKIP Ind/Oth
2010 National
Equivalent Vote35 28 25 3 9
2014 by-election
model ‘forecast’30 33 14 16 7
Change 2010-14 -5 +5 -11 +13 -2
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Possible 2014 seat change 1
Con Lab LD UKIP
-160 +500 -340 ???
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
Possible council change 2014
Croydon Lab ex Con
Trafford NOC ex Con
Walsall Lab ex NOC
Bristol Lab ex NOC
Swindon NOC ex Con
Crawley Lab ex Con
West Lancashire Lab ex Con
Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing
UKIP 2013 in councils with 2014 elections
District UKIP share 2013 UKIP seats 2013
Adur 37.1 3 ex 6
Great Yarmouth 36.4 5 ex 9
Huntingdonshire 34.0 6 ex 13
Castle Point 33.7 2 ex 5
Eastleigh 33.1 3 ex 7
Basildon 32.2 3 ex 5
Redditch 31.1 2 ex 4
Rushmoor 30.9 1 ex 5
Worthing 30.3 1 ex 9
Havant 30.0 1 ex 6
Tunbridge Wells 30.0 1 ex 6
Runnymede 29.5 0 ex 6
Broxbourne 29.3 0 ex 6
Daventry 28.9 1 ex 7
Harlow 28.3 0 ex 3
Newcastle-under-Lyme 28.3 1 ex 9
Rochford 28.2 1 ex 5
Epping Forest 26.7 0 ex 7
Brentwood 25.7 0 ex 4
Basingstoke & Deane 25.2 0 ex 10
Cannock Chase 25.2 0 ex 6
Reigate & Banstead 25.0 0 ex 10Political Studies Association: 2014 Local
Elections Media Briefing