The Loading Order – How Are We Doing?
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Transcript of The Loading Order – How Are We Doing?
California Energy Commission
The Loading Order – How Are We Doing?The Loading Order – How Are We Doing?
Jackalyne Pfannenstiel Chairman
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Independent Energy Producers Independent Energy Producers Annual MeetingAnnual MeetingOctober 10, 2006October 10, 2006
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Energy Action Plan’s Loading Order Directs Resource
Additions
1. Energy efficiency and demand response
2. Renewable energy resources
3. Clean and efficient fossil generation
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2006 Heat Storm Was a Wake-Up Call
How hot was it?
Northern California peak temperatures at once-in-28-year levels.
Southern California peak temperatures at once-in-10-years, even over the weekend.
SDG&E load peaked on Saturday - first time ever.
Record 11 days over 100° in Sacramento.
Northern California overnight lows were highest in recorded history - at least 1 in 57 years.
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An Improbable Peak
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000
Load (MW)
Probability
+3 Std Dev± 1 Std Dev-2 Std Dev +2 Std Dev-3 Std Dev
1 in 2
1 in 10
Actual Peak:
about 1 in 50
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Surviving The Heat Storm
What worked:
Coordination and communication
Generation, transmission and import availability
Demand response
Praying
What didn’t:
Distribution transformers
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Lessons For Next Time Distribution transformers fail under extreme heat
conditions.
Demand response well-suited for low probability events.
Peak load system operations needs planning and coordination.
Demand forecast needs to be updated often.
Luck is not a resource.
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Resource Needs
Loads growing at 1.5%-2% per year
Peaks growing faster
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Peak Demand Growth
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
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Declining Load Factors
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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New Residential Construction in California from 1975-2005
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Year
Number of units
Multi-family
Single
Housing Drives Load Growth
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New Homes Add to Peak Demand
1.2 million new homes by 2017
Most in hottest areas
AC loads add 2,400 MW at peak
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Air Conditioning Contributes to the Peak
More Central Air
Conditioning
Housing Growth in Hotter
Areas
More AC in Existing Urban
Centers
Revised Peak Forecast for
Summer 2006 and Beyond0
1020304050607080
Before 19751975-19831984-1991
1992-
Saturation of Central AC
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Loading Order: Energy Efficiency
First: Use energy efficiency and demand response as preferred means of meeting growing energy needs.
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Energy Efficiency WorksPer Capita Electricity Consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
kWh/person
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv.html
United States
California
California Energy CommissionAnnual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
19751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
GWh/year
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003Energy Efficiency Resource Additions
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Meeting EE Goals
Annual Goals As of July 2006Achieved Annual Savings
YTD
Achieved Savings As% of 2006
Goal
2006 2007 2008
Net Summer Peak MW
442 478 528
84 19%
Net Annual MWh 2 million
2.2 million
2.5 million
382,000 19%
Net Annual Therms 30 million
37.3 million
44.4 million
4.3 million 14%
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Loading Order: Renewables and Disributed Generation
Second: New generation needs met first by renewable energy resources and distributed generation, such as combined heat and power
.
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Renewable Energy Growth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000
YEAR
GWH
Geothermal
Biomass
WindSolar
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Renewables: Stuck in Neutral?
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
2002 2003 2004 2005
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Loading Order: Clean and Efficient Fossil-fuel Generation
Third: To the extent the above are unable to satisfy energy and capacity needs, support clean and efficient fossil-fuel fired generation.
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We’ve Been Adding Power Plants
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More Applications Are Being Considered
In Active Review 14 4,506 MW
Possible New Filings through June 30, 2007 ~12 ~5,000 MW
Plants on Line for Summer 2007 1 160 MW
Plants on Line for Summer 2008 2 893 MW
Plants on Line for Summer 2009 ~4 1,350 MW
Projects No. MW
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9,036 MW Licensed, But Not Built
Number MW
Cancelled/expired 6 1,393
No contract 6 5,057
Other reasons 5 2,586
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Overall, How Are We Doing With the Loading Order?
Resource Goal Progress
Efficiency 2 Million MWH 19%
Demand Response
2,400 MW 1,100 MW
RPS 20% by 2010 11%
Fossil As Needed 2,400 MW for next 3 years
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Prospects for Improvement
Energy legislation
Transmission progress
Utility solicitations: renewable, non-renewable
Advanced metering
Integrated Energy Policy Report
– RPS improvement
– Load Management Standards authority
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2006 Energy Legislation
AB 32 Greenhouse Gases – GHG emission reductions
AB 2021 Energy Efficiency – Statewide EE target
SB 1 Solar Energy – 3,000 MW goal
SB 107 Renewable Energy – Acceleration of RPS
SB 1059Transmission -- Designation of corridors for future use
SB 1368 Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Emissions performance
standards for utilities
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Transmission Progress Devers-Palo Verde No. 2
– Expected Operating Date: December 2009
Tehachapi– Agreed on Plan of Service
– Permitting of First Phase in Process
– Phase 2 and 3 CPCN applications 2007
Sunrise– Application Accepted as Adequate Sept. 2006
– Will allow 700 MW of renewable generation
Trans-Bay Cable– Approvals and Construction Started in 2007
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Progress in Procurement
The CPUC process is underway
Solicitations are resulting in signed contracts
- renewables and non-renewables
Stakeholder groups are expressing optimism
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Progress With Renewables
CPUC has approved nearly 3,000 MW of
contracts
WREGIS is expected to be deployed in 2007
The California Solar Initiative, beginning in
2007, has a goal of 3,000 MW of PV in ten
years
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Advanced Metering Update
PG&E– Network deployment begun in September – Meter deployment to begin in November in the Bakersfield
area.
SDG&E– CPUC decision scheduled for the first quarter of 2007.– AMI deployment is expected to be completed mid-2008-2010.
SCE – Pre-deployment efforts positive: expects compatible system
available soon.– AMI project application and business case filing expected in
July 2007.
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Loading Order Still Works
The Energy Action Plan was a valuable call to action;
there’s been too little action since
We need more energy efficiency, more demand
response, more renewables, more fossil generation
We’re not out of the woods yet on summer reliability
We need to find new approaches
We all need to take responsibility