The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College 1 GLOBAL IMBALANCES: The U.S. and the Rest of the World...
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Transcript of The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College 1 GLOBAL IMBALANCES: The U.S. and the Rest of the World...
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College 1
GLOBAL IMBALANCES: The U.S. and the Rest of the World
THE LEVY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF BARD COLLEGE
The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College 2
FIGURE 1 Monthly U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods
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FIGURE 2 Trade Deficit in Goods as a % of GDP
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FIGURE 3 Annual U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods
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Accounting Identity of Financial Balances
Current Account Balance
Private Sector
Balance+ =
{Internal
Financial Balance
{
External Financial Balance
GovernmentBalance
THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
In 2006 the identity was roughly like this: -3% of GDP -2.4% of GDP = -5.4% of GDP
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FIGURE 4 U.S. Main Sector Balances
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FIGURE 5 Main Sector Balances with CBO Assumptions
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FIGURE 6 Household Debt Outstanding
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FIGURE 7 Household Borrowing
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FIGURE 8 U.S. Main Sector Balances under the Assumption of Stabilizing Household Debt
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FIGURE 9 U.S. Main Sector Balances under the Assumptions of Further Dollar Devaluation and Expansionary Fiscal Policy