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1Week 16 April 15 - April 21, 2013

APRIL 15 - APRIL 21, 2013

WEEK 16

Bank Audi sal - Audi Saradar Group - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected]

CONTACTS

RESEARCH

Treasury & Capital Markets

Micky Chebli(961-1) [email protected]

Nadine Akkawi(961-1) [email protected]

Bechara Serhal(961-1) [email protected]

Private Banking

Toufic Aouad(961-1) [email protected]

Corporate Banking

Khalil Debs(961-1) [email protected]

Marwan Barakat(961-1) [email protected]

Jamil Naayem(961-1) [email protected]

Salma Saad Baba(961-1) [email protected]

Fadi Kanso(961-1) [email protected]

Nathalie Ghorayeb(961-1) [email protected]

Sarah Borgi(961-1) [email protected]

Marc Harb(961-1) [email protected]

Nivine Turyaki(961-1) [email protected]

LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF APRIL 15 - APRIL 21, 2013

The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR

Economy___________________________________________________________________________p.2 IMF FORECASTS A 2% REAL GDP GROWTH IN 2013 AND 4% IN 2014The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook in which it revised slightly downward Lebanon's real GDP growth for 2012 and 2013 while maintaining the same rate for 2014. Also in this issuep.3 Cleared checks practically stable in the first quarter of 2013p.4 Airport passengers up by 10.4% year-on-year

Surveys___________________________________________________________________________p.5 LEBANON’S GLOBAL RANK IMPROVES BY FIVE NOTCHES IN EUROMONEY’S MARCH 2013 COUNTRY RISK SURVEY In Euromoney’s March 2013 country risk survey, Lebanon was ranked 95th out of 185 countries globally and 11th out of 17 countries regionally.

Also in this issuep.6 Moody’s maintains a “negative” outlook on Lebanon’s banking system

Corporate News___________________________________________________________________________p.7 BANK AUDI'S ASSETS GREW BY 6.3% OVER THE FIRST QUARTERBank Audi – Audi Saradar Group’s assets totaled US$ 33.3 billion at end-March 2013, up by 6.3% from US$ 31.3 billion at end-2012. The consolidated asset growth stems in particular from the Turkish banking subsidiary.

Also in this issuep.8 Lebanese company M1 bids for 75% stake in Kosovo’s PTKp.8 CMA CGM announces the opening of new Dry Port in Baghdad

Markets In Brief___________________________________________________________________________p.9 BDL CONDUCTS A NEW SWAP BETWEEN LP TBS AND EUROBONDSLebanese capital markets saw continuous swapping between LP CDs on the money market, some local appetite for long-term papers on the bond market, and a sustained balanced activity on the FX market. In details, the BDL continued to conduct swap operations between LP CDs maturing in 2013 and 2014 and longer-term CDs, while selling additional long-term CDs in exchange for cash. As such, the outstanding CDs portfolio held by banks rose by circa LP 6,209 billion during the first two months of 2013, which is its highest growth during the corresponding period of previous years, according to ABL figures. On the Eurobond market, local retail clients showed some demand for long-term papers, while foreign investors remained almost absent. The average spread stood stable at 379 bps and the five-year CDS spreads continued to hover between 410 and 450 bps. It is worth mentioning that the BDL launched this week a swap operation between LP Tbs and Eurobonds, noting that this is its second swap operation after the one conducted in June 2012, and it followed a significant growth in its LP Tbs portfolio of LP 1,961 billion since year-end 2012. At the level of the FX market, a balanced activity continued to prevail, while the LP/US$ interbank rate hovered between LP 1,512 and LP 1,514.



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ECONOMY______________________________________________________________________________IMF FORECASTS A 2% REAL GDP GROWTH IN 2013 AND 4% IN 2014

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook in which it revised slightly downward Lebanon's real GDP growth for 2012 and 2013 while maintaining the same rate for 2014. Accordingly, the country’s economic activity grew by 1.5% in real terms in 2012 compared with a previous forecast of 2.0%. It would increase by 2.0% in 2013 (previously 2.5%) and by 4.0% in 2014 (unchanged from the October 2012 World Economic Outlook edition).

According to the IMF, downside risks remain elevated for oil importers, largely as the result of domestic and regional political instability and social unrest. Several governments in the region are transitional, and continued political instability could further delay policy action to maintain macroeconomic stability and aid the recovery. In addition, there is a risk that the conflict in Syria could mean more complications for neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Lebanon. The latest forecasts showed that oil importers would post a real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2013 against 1.9% in 2012.

With regards to other economic data on Lebanon, the Fund estimated that the country’s nominal GDP rose from US$ 39.0 billion in 2011 to US$ 41.3 billion in 2012 (against US$ 41.8 billion in the previous edition). It would reach US$ 43.8 billion in 2013 (US$ 44.4 billion previously) and US$ 46.7 billion in 2014 (US$ 47.1 billion previously). Lebanon’s GDP per capita estimates stood at US$ 9,856 in 2011, US$ 10,311 in 2012, US$ 10,793 in 2013 and US$ 11,348 in 2014.

Pertaining to the average inflation rate, that of 2011 remained unchanged at 4.985% while those of 2012, 2013 and 2014 were revised slightly upward. For 2012, it is estimated to have reached 6.573% compared with 6.508% in the previous edition. It would attain 6.659% and 2.393% in 2013 and 2014 against previous expectations of 5.664% and 1.998%, respectively.

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

LEBANON'S MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS



WEEK 16

Sources: Association of Banks in Lebanon, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

CLEARED CHECKS (FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR, US$ MILLION)

At the level of fiscal accounts, the Fund’s data showed that revenues accounted for 23.5% of GDP in 2011, then moved slightly downward to 23.4% in 2012. The IMF foresees a ratio of 23.3% in 2013 and 23.8% in 2014. As to fiscal expenditures, they made up 29.6% of GDP in 2011, then increased to 32.4% in 2012. The ratio of fiscal expenditures-to-GDP would rise to 33.0% in 2013 and then move slightly down to 32.8% in 2014.

Overall, Lebanon’s fiscal deficit would sink deeper into the negative territory in 2013 then slightly ease in 2014. Accordingly, it would account for 9.7% of GDP in 2013 and 8.9% of GDP in 2014 against respective ratios 8.297% and 8.011% in the October 2012 edition. _____________________________________________________________________________CLEARED CHECKS PRACTICALLY STABLE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2013

According to the latest data released by the Association of Banks in Lebanon the value of cleared checks within the banking system, a composite indicator of consumption patterns remained almost constant on an annual basis during the first quarter of 2013 along with a relatively still contained economic growth.

As a matter of fact, the value of cleared checks reached US$ 17.3 billion in the first quarter of 2013, moving slightly down by 0.6% from a total of US$ 17.4 billion in the same period of 2012 during which they reported an annual increase of 2.3%.

On the overall, it is worth noting that consumption remains subjected to some downward pressures on account of multiple factors of which the weaker tourism and the somewhat frail appetite to initiate projects within Lebanon which is currently considered to be in a wait-and-see investment phase.

In details, banks’ clearings in local currency amounted to LP 5,734 billion in the first quarter of 2013, up by 6.0% from the corresponding period of 2012. As to the clearing in foreign currency, they retreated by 2.3% annually to reach the equivalent of US$ 13.5 billion in the first three months of 2013.



WEEK 16

_____________________________________________________________________________AIRPORT PASSENGERS UP BY 10.4% YEAR-ON-YEAR

According to the latest statistics released by the Hariri International Airport, the number of passengers at the airport increased by 10.4% year-on-year in the first three months of 2013. In total, 1,370,863 passengers used the Hariri International Airport during the first three months of 2013, broken down over 631,505 arriving passengers, 735,081 departing passengers and 4,277 transiting ones. The number of arriving passengers rose by 6.2% over the said period and that of the departing passengers increased by 16.3%. The number of transiting passengers were down by 72.3% in the first three months of 2013 relative to the same period of 2012.

Airline activity witnessed a decline in the first three months of 2013 relative to the same period of 2012. Aircraft traffic at the airport saw a yearly drop of 4.0% to 14,175 planes, broken down over 7,094 arriving planes and 7,081 departing planes. The former were annually lower by 4.0% and the latter by 4.1% over the aforesaid period of 2013.

As to freight movement within the airport, a total of 13,027 thousands tons were imported and unloaded during the first three months of 2013 while 9,747 were loaded and exported. The first mentioned activity posted a yearly increase of 26.1% and the latter was up by 37.5%. Overall, freight movement was higher by 30.7% year-on-year to 22,774 thousand tons in the first quarter of 2013.

Sources: Hariri International Airport, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

AIRPORT ACTIVITY (FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR)



WEEK 16

SURVEYS____________________________________________________________________________LEBANON’S GLOBAL RANK IMPROVES BY FIVE NOTCHES IN EUROMONEY’S MARCH 2013 COUNTRY RISK SURVEY

In Euromoney’s March 2013 country risk survey, Lebanon was ranked 95th out of 185 countries globally and 11th out of 17 countries regionally. Worldwide, its rank was up by five notches from December 2012 and in the MENA region, it remained unchanged over the same period. Lebanon’s score increased by 4.6% on a quarterly basis.

The survey assesses individual country risk by assigning a weighting to 6 categories covering political risk, economic performance, structural assessment, debt indicators, credit ratings and access to bank finance/capital markets.

The political risk refers to corruption, government non-payments/non-repatriation, government stability, information access/transparency, institutional risk, and regulatory and policy environment. Lebanon retreated by six notches from December 2012 to reach the 118th position in March 2013. Economic performance is based on bank stability and risks, GNP outlook, unemployment rate, government finances, monetary policy and currency stability. Lebanon’s global rank in economic performance retreated slightly from the 91st position in December 2012 to the 93rd one in March 2013.

Debt indicators are calculated using the World Bank’s total debt stocks to GNP ratio, debt service to exports ratio, and current account balance to GNP ratio. Lebanon’s rank was unchanged on a quarterly

RANKING OF MENA COUNTRIES IN EUROMONEY'S COUNTRY RISK SURVEY

Sources: Euromoney, Bank Audi's Group Research Department



WEEK 16

basis, coming in the 138th position globally. Credit ratings represent the nominal values assigned to sovereign ratings from Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. Lebanon’s global rank improved by three notches from December 2012 to reach the 107th position in March 2013.

With regards to access to bank finance accounts and to capital, Lebanon’s global rank rose from the 127th position in December 2012 to the 93rd one in March 2013. Finally, with respect to structural assessments which measures the effectiveness of the labor market, industrial relations and infrastructure, Lebanon’s global rank moved down from the 57th position in December 2012 to the 62nd one in March 2013. _____________________________________________________________________________MOODY’S MAINTAINS A “NEGATIVE” OUTLOOK ON LEBANON’S BANKING SYSTEM

Moody’s released its latest report on Lebanon’s banking system in which it maintained a “negative” outlook on the sector while indicating that despite the lingering challenges, banks would sustain their sizeable liquidity cushions and stable deposit-based funding profiles over the outlook period. Noteworthy is that the outlook reflects the agency’s expectations of how creditworthiness will evolve in the system over the next 12 to 18 months.

In details, the agency highlighted that the system’s solid liquidity buffers and depositor-based funding would remain a source of strength and support system stability. In parallel, Lebanese banks’ reliance on market funding is minimal as customer deposits fund over 80% of system assets. Inflows of remittances from the Lebanese diaspora support bank deposits and account for around 20% of GDP on an annual basis. Liquidity remains comfortable with ‘core’ liquid assets, cash, placements with the central bank and placements predominantly with international banks, amounting to 23% of total assets as at year-end 2012.

Concerning systemic support, the agency acknowledged the fact that the government has a strong incentive to support systemically important banks. This is attributed to three main reasons: first is the government’s reliance on the banking sector for the bulk of its financing needs, second is the fact that the Central Bank has historically extended support to ailing banks through regulatory forbearance and by orchestrating bank mergers and acquisitions, third is the Central Bank’s ability to support the currency and provide foreign-currency liquidity support to the banking sector. Accordingly, the deposit ratings of systemically important banks incorporate one notch of systemic support uplift, as per Moody's Investor's Service.

The country’s operating environment remains subjected to some challenges with real GDP growth anticipated at 2.0% in 2013, quite below the average of 8.1% in 2007-2010. Consequently, this contained growth would lead to weaker lending opportunities with credit growth remaining somewhat muted in 2013 coupled with a fragile fiscal position leading the government to remain reliant on the banking sector to finance its large deficit, as per Moody's.

At the level of asset quality and capital, Moody’s indicated that it sees some risks stemming from the regional instabilities which weigh on domestic operating conditions and Lebanese banks’ operations in high-risk countries.

As to the profitability and efficiency, Moody’s expects that the former would come under pressure due to rising credit charges, declining fee income generation, and losses arising from Lebanese banks’ operations in the MENA region, as per Moody's.



WEEK 16

CORPORATE NEWS______________________________________________________________________________BANK AUDI'S ASSETS GREW BY 6.3% OVER THE FIRST QUARTER

Bank Audi – Audi Saradar Group’s assets totaled US$ 33.3 billion at end-March 2013, up by 6.3% from US$ 31.3 billion at end-2012. The consolidated asset growth stems in particular from the Turkish banking subsidiary which recorded remarkable growth over five months, building US$ 4.3 billion of assets, US$ 3.6 billion of customers’ deposits and US$ 2.1 billion of loans.

Customers’ deposits amounted to US$ 28.7 billion at end-March 2013, up from US$ 26.8 billion at end-2012. This increase mostly stems from the Turkish banking subsidiary, totally offsetting negative contributions from the Syrian and Egyptian entities to the increase in consolidated deposits as a result of the still prevailing unfavorable economic conditions within the context of deteriorating exchange rates in both countries.

The rise in customers’ deposits was matched by a growth at the level of consolidated net loans which moved from US$ 10.4 billion at end-December 2012 to US$ 11.6 billion at end-March 2013, translating in a further improvement in the loan-to-deposit ratio to 40.3%. Shareholders’ equity totaled US$ 2.7 billion at end-March 2013, slightly up by 0.2% from end-2012.

Source: Bank Audi - Audi Saradar Group

BANK AUDI'S SELECTED FINANCIAL AGGREGATES (US$ BILLION)



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Bank Audi – Audi Saradar Group announced 2013 first quarter net profits of US$ 85.5 million, down by 9.5% from US$ 94.5 million in the same period of 2012.

Such a result is mainly due to the initial launching stages of the Turkish banking subsidiary, following an organic growth strategy and aiming at becoming an active player in the Turkish banking sector. When adjusting the Group’s net earnings to Odeabank’s results, Bank Audi would have recorded a net earnings growth of 5.9% despite challenging domestic and regional operating conditions, reflecting the Group’s earnings’ flexibility.

Net interest income amounted to US$ 141.6 million in the aforementioned period of 2013, slightly down by 0.9% from the same period of 2012. Net fees and commissions income decreased from US$ 47.3 million in the first quarter of 2012 to US$ 43.9 million in the same period of 2013.

Net operating income edged up by 2.2% year-on-year to attain US$ 240.3 million in the first quarter of 2013. Total operating expenses rose by 17.5% year-on-year to US$ 132.0 million in the first three months of 2013. _____________________________________________________________________________LEBANESE COMPANY M1 BIDS FOR 75% STAKE IN KOSOVO’S PTK

Lebanese company M1 International Ltd. expressed interest in acquiring a 75% stake in Kosovo’s telecom operator PTK. According to statements from the government of Kosovo, the Lebanese company is one of two bidders competing for the telecom firm.

The other bid was submitted by a consortium of Germany's ACP Axos Capital Gmbh and Najafi Companies in partnership with British Telecom. The current tender was delayed twice after bidders asked for more time to line up financial backing from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation, as per newswires.

The Balkan state, which gained independence from Serbia in 2008, plans to retain a 25% stake in PTK for at least five years. The company has more than one million mobile subscribers, another 100,000 landline customers and provides internet and cable TV services. ______________________________________________________________________________CMA CGM ANNOUNCES THE OPENING OF NEW DRY PORT IN BAGHDAD

Lebanese-owned CMA CGM has announced the opening of its new bonded Dry Port near Baghdad in June 2013, in the Iraqi area of Abu Ghreib.

Managed and operated by CMA CGM, the Dry Port will be the sole one in Iraq, allowing clients to custom clear their cargo near Baghdad instead of Umm Qasr. CMA CGM’s intentions are to facilitate its customers’ business in Iraq and to strengthen its roots in this market.

CMA CGM, founded in 1978, is a world renowned marine transportation company. It operates a fleet circa 400 vessels that serve more than 400 ports around the globe, and maintains a network of about 560 facilities in 150 countries. CMA CGM also provides logistics and multimodal services, arranging the transportation of containerized freight by river, road, and rail.



WEEK 16

CAPITAL MARKETS_____________________________________________________________________________MONEY MARKET: SUSTAINED GROWTH IN LP CDS PORTFOLIO

Commercial banks continued to hold ample local currency liquidity at hand. Accordingly, the overnight rate remained quoted at its low official level of 2.75% set by the Central Bank of Lebanon. As to Certificates of Deposits, no subscriptions were made during this week. Accordingly, total subscriptions since the beginning of the year 2013 stood unchanged at LP 38 billion. Interest rates on the 45-day and 60-day CDs categories remained stable at 3.57% and 3.85% respectively.

The latest figures released by the Association of Banks in Lebanon showed that the weighted average rate on CDs reached 8.99% at end-February 2013 versus 9.03% at end-January 2013 and 9.28% at end-December 2012. The outstanding CDs portfolio reached LP 29,282 billion at end-February 2013, up from LP 28,085 billion at end-January 2013 and LP 23,073 billion at end-December 2012, mainly due to the swap operation conducted by the BDL between LP CDs maturing in 2013 and 2014 and longer-term CDs that has also involved cash injections.

At the monetary aggregates level, figures for the week ending 4th of April 2013 released this week showed a drop in local currency deposits of LP 312 billion, as a result of a decline of LP 175 billion in LP time deposits and a decrease of LP 137 billion in LP demand deposits week-on-week. Deposits in foreign currencies fell by US$ 66 million. These weekly variations compare to an average weekly rise of LP 37 billion for LP deposits, and an average weekly increase of US$ 101 million for foreign currency deposits since the beginning of the year 2013. Total money supply in its large sense (M4) contracted by LP 171 billion week-on-week. This compared to an average weekly growth of LP 236 billion since the beginning of the year.

On a cumulative basis, money supply in its large sense (M4) grew by LP 4,043 billion since the beginning of the year 2013. This is the result of a rise in local currency denominated time deposits of LP 1,615 billion, an increase in foreign currency deposits of LP 1,971 billion (the equivalent of US$ 1,307 million), a contraction in money supply (M1) of LP 410 billion, and a growth in Treasury bills held by the public of LP 867 billion.

_____________________________________________________________________________TREASURY BILLS MARKET: NOMINAL SURPLUS OF LP 41 BILLION

The secondary Treasury bills markets saw some foreign demand for short-term categories, while local investors showed interest in long-term categories. At the level of the primary market, the latest auction’s results (April 18, 2013) showed stability in the average yields on the one-year, two-year and three-year categories at 5.35%, 5.84% and 6.50% respectively. On the other hand, the auction results for value date 11th of April 2013 released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that total subscriptions amounted to LP 217 billion and were distributed as follows: LP 36 billion in the three-month category, LP 44 billion in the six-month category, and LP 137 billion in the five-year category. These compare to maturities of LP 176 billion, resulting in a nominal surplus of LP 41 billion.

INTEREST RATES

Source: Bloomberg



WEEK 16

TREASURY BILLS

Sources: Central Bank of Lebanon, Bloomberg_____________________________________________________________________________FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: SMALL DECLINE IN BDL’S FOREIGN ASSETS

The currency trading market maintained its balanced activity during this week, while commercial banks traded the US Dollar at a rate hovering between LP 1,512 and LP 1,514. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Lebanon remained on the sidelines.

The Central Bank of Lebanon’s latest bi-monthly balance sheet ending 15th of April 2013 showed that foreign assets dropped by US$ 122 million during the first half of April to stand at US$ 35.2 billion mid-April. Accordingly, the Central Bank’s foreign assets covered 80.7% of LP money supply mid-April, with this coverage ratio rising to 110.5% when accounting for gold reserves estimated at US$ 13.0 billion. In addition, the BDL’s foreign assets covered 20.5 months of imports. These ratios reflect the BDL’s strong ability to defend the currency peg and meet demand for foreign currencies should any pressures arise.

EXCHANGE RATES

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department_____________________________________________________________________________STOCK MARKET: PRICE INDEX UP BY 0.6%

The total trading value on the Beirut Stock Exchange amounted to US$ 7.6 million this week versus US$ 10.0 million last week and an average weekly trading value of US$ 3.6 million since the beginning of the year 2013. The average daily trading value fell from US$ 1,990 thousand last week to US$ 1,515 thousand this week, resulting into a 23.8% drop in the trading volume index to close at 64.51. As far as prices are concerned, the BSE price index rose by 0.6% week-on-week to close at 111.39.

Banking shares captured 80.7% of the total trading value. Bank Audi’s “listed” share price increased by 1.5% to US$ 6.60. Bank Audi’s GDR price edged up by 0.4% to US$ 7.00. BLOM’s “listed” share price surged



WEEK 16

EUROBONDS INDICATORS

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

AUDI INDICES FOR BSE

Sources: Beirut Stock Exchange, Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

by 6.1% to US$ 8.75. BLOM’s GDR price rose by 0.6% to US$ 9.00. It is worth mentioning that the last trading day to get BLOM’s dividends for the year 2012 is on April 24, 2013, which means that BLOM shares would trade ex-dividend on April 25. Byblos’ “listed” share price declined by 1.8% to US$ 1.65. Solidere shares accounted for 18.6% of activity. Solidere “A” share price nudged down by 0.1% to close at US$ 13.39, and Solidere “B” share price fell by 1.4% to close at US$ 13.20. As to industrial stocks, Holcim’s share price nudged up by 0.1% to US$ 15.02.

All in all, the Beirut Stock Exchange performed better than other Arabian and emerging markets, as reflected by a 1.5% fall in the S&P Pan-Arab Composite Index and a 0.7% drop in the S&P Emerging Market Composite Index.

_____________________________________________________________________________BOND MARKET: STABILITY IN SPREADS

Long-term papers, especially those maturing in 2023, 2025, 2026 and 2027, attracted some buying interest from local retail clients, while local institutional investors remained on the sidelines, awaiting for some favorable local developments that may spur activity and lift bond prices. Meanwhile, foreign market players remained almost absent during this week. Within this context, the average bond yield declined by 5 basis points to 4.84%, and the average spread remained relatively stable at 379 basis points due to a shy decline in Lebanese yields and stability in international benchmark yields. For instance, the five-year US Treasuries yields remained stable at 0.71%. As to the cost of insuring debt, Lebanon’s five-year CDS spreads hovered between 410 and 450 basis points this week versus 413-446 basis points last week.



WEEK 16

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INDICATORS

Sources: Bloomberg, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

___________________________________________________________________________DISCLAIMER

The content of this publication is provided as general information only and should not be taken as an advice to invest or engage in any form of financial or commercial activity. Any action that you may take as a result of information in this publication remains your sole responsibility. None of the materials herein constitute offers or solicitations to purchase or sell securities, your investment decisions should not be made based upon the information herein.

Although Bank Audi Sal Audi Saradar Group considers the content of this publication reliable, it shall have no liability for its content and makes no warranty, representation or guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness.

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