The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Generation

8122019 The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Generation

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-latino-electorate-by-immigrant-generation 19

1 Center for American Progress | The Latino E lectorate by Immigran t Generation

The Latino Electorate

by Immigrant Generation The Rising Influence of Children of Immigrants

By Patrick Oakford June 12 2014

I has been nearly one year since he Senae passed a biparisan immigraion bill991252he

Border Securiy Economic Opporuniy and Immigraion Modernizaion Ac991252andsince hen he House o Represenaives has done litle o move he process o reorm

orward in any meaningul way1 Wih he November 2014 congressional and 2016

presidenial elecions jus around he corner he window o opporuniy or he cur-

ren House o pass immigraion reorm is closing quickly As House Republican leaders

consider wheher hey will ake acion on reorm his congressional session hey

should remember ha he ime o pass reorm is no he only hing ha is coming o an

end he window o opporuniy o gain suppor among Laino voers or he upcom-

ing elecions is also quickly closing

In he las wo elecion cycles Laino voers have been vial o Democrasrsquo vicoriesin boh he congressional and presidenial races Senae Majoriy Leader Harry Reid

(D-NV) or example won 90 percen o he Laino voe in 2010 allowing him o nar-

rowly end off his Republican challenger Sharron Angle2 Similarly Laino voers helped

secure Presiden Barack Obamarsquos 2012 win in key saes such as Colorado and Virginia

wih 71 percen o Lainos supporing him naionally3 In he days ollowing he 2012

presidenial elecion a sunning array o conservaive pundis and lawmakers including

Bill OrsquoReilly assered ha he Republican Pary mus gain he suppor o Laino voers

i i wished o be a viable pary in uure elecions4 Tey were correc Te influence o

Lainos is only increasing as hey become a larger share o he US elecorae

Second-generaion immigrans991252he children o immigrans991252are he ases-growing

segmen o he Laino elecorae Tis means ha he vas majoriy o he nearly 2000

Lainos who urn age 18 and become eligible o voe each day come rom an immigran

household5 Tese young voers have winessed firshand he negaive consequences

o our broken immigraion sysem and are acuely aware o he immigraion reorm




debae occurring in our counry Tus he House Republicansrsquo coninued rejecion o

immigraion reorm alienaes he ases-growing segmen o he Laino populaion

While House Republicans have a chance o redeem hemselves wih he Laino elecor-

ae beore he 2014 and 2016 elecions i is clear ha i hey do no ake up immigraion

reorm soon hey will cemen heir uure poliical demise

Tis issue brie breaks down he Laino elecorae by immigran generaion Specifically we ideniy he porions o he Laino elecorae ha are immigrans he children

o immigrans and hird-generaion immigrans Moreover he analysis shows ha

second-generaion immigrans are he driving orce behind he growh o he Laino

elecorae Te findings o his brie provide urher evidence ha i Republicans do no

help fix our immigraion sysem soon hey will coninue o isolae he Laino elecorae

Here are he key findings rom he Cener or American Progressrsquos analysis o he Laino

elecorae and he implicaions i will have on uure elecions

bull Immigrans and heir children are an increasing share o he Laino elecoraeImmigrans and heir children made up 49 percen o eligible Laino voers in 1996

Tis share climbed o 55 percen by 20126

bull Second-generaion immigrans are he driving orce behind he

growh o he Laino elecorae Beween 2012 and 2016 33 mil-

lion Laino ciizens will urn age 18 O hese 57 percen or nearly

2 million are he children o immigrans7

bull Immigrans and heir children are more likely o voe han hird-

generaion immigrans8

Tereore as immigrans and heir children become a larger share o he Laino elecorae he voer urnou

rae or Lainos will likely increase

bull As immigrans and heir children make up a larger share o he

Laino elecorae he imporance o immigraion reorm will only

coninue o grow or he elecorae as a whole

Changing demographics of the Latino electorate

Te Laino elecorae is growing a a aser rae han many oher racial

and ehnic groups and hereore is becoming a larger share o he US

elecorae In 2012 Lainos accouned or 11 percen o all eligible

voers9 Te Laino elecorae will increase by 17 percen rom 2012

o 201610 Bu wha is he source o is growh

bull First-generation immigrants Individuals who

were born abroad and moved to the United States

Only first-generation immigrants who are natural-

ized citizens are eligible to vote

bull Second-generation immigrants Individuals

born in the United States who have at least one pa

ent who is an immigrant

bull Third-generation immigrants US-born indiv

uals whose parents were born in the United States

bull Eligible voters All US citizens who are 18 years

of age or older

bull Voter turnout rates The share of all eligible vot

ers who voted

bull Immigrant household A household with at lea

one immigrant member

For the purposes of this briefkey terms are defined as follows




In he early 2000s second-generaion Laino immigrans became he driving orce

behind growh in eligible Laino voers Specifically in 1996 hird-generaion immi-

grans were he larges share o Lainos urning age 18 over he nex our years Bu by

2000 second-generaion immigrans accouned or more han 50 percen o all Lainos

urning age 18 beween 2000 and 200411

TABLE 1

Share of Latinos turning 18 between presidential election cycles by immigrant generations

First-time

eligible voters

in 2000

First-time

eligible voters

in 2004

First-time

eligible voters

in 2008

First-time

eligible voters

in 2012

First-time

eligible voters

in 2016

First-generation immigrants 31 28 27 30 18

Second-generation immigrants 478 521 565 525 565

Third-generation immigrants 492 451 409 445 415

Note Columns may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding

Source Authorrsquos analysis of Current Population Survey or CPS November supplements from 1996 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

Given ha a majoriy o all Laino ciizens younger han age 18991252and 52 percen o all

Laino ciizens under age 5991252were second-generaion immigrans in 2012 he rend o

second-generaion immigrans leading he growh o he Laino elecorae will coninue

or several presidenial elecion cycles12 Beween 2012 and 2016 or example 57 per-

cen o he 33 million Lainos who will urn age 18 and be eligible o voe will have a

leas one immigran paren Tis means ha immigrans and heir children will become

a larger share o he overall Laino elecorae I also means ha he ases-growing

segmen o he Laino elecorae has lived or grown up in an immigran household his

group o poenial voers has winessed our immigraion sysemrsquos impac on heir ami-

lies and is personally invesed in he curren immigraion debae

TABLE 2

Share of eligible Latino voters by immigrant generation

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012




First- and second-generation

immigrants combined49 51 51 53 55

Note Immigrant generations may not add to 100 percent due to rounding

Source Authorrsquos analysis of CPS November supplements from 1996 2000 2004 2008 and 2012




First- and second-generation immigrants are most likely to vote

Even hough Lainos are becoming a growing porion o he elecorae and heir poen-

ial influence on elecions is rising his group has hisorically had a low voer urnou

rae and hus has no reached is poliical poenial Te naional Laino voer urnou

rae was 48 percen in 2012 compared wih 64 percen or non-Hispanic whies13

Similarly he share o Lainos who were regisered o voe was 587 percen compared wih 737 percen or non-Hispanic whies Tis indicaes ha Lainos boh regiser and

urn ou o voe a lower raes han many oher racial and ehnic groups

An analysis o daa rom he Census Bureau however suggess ha no all Lainos have

low voer urnou raes Among he Laino elecorae immigrans and heir children991252

meaning firs- and second-generaion immigrans991252have hisorically been more likely

o go o he polls han hird-generaion immigrans In nearly every presidenial elec-

ion since 1996 here has been a saisically significan difference in voer urnou raes

beween immigrans and heir children and hird-generaion immigrans14

TABLE 4

Latino voter turnout rate by immigrant generation

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Latinos 440 451 472 500 480



Note Bolded turnout rates are statistically different from second-generation voter turnout rate at a 95 percent confidence interval

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

First- and second-generation immigrants combined 479 469 480 524 496


Note Bolded turnout rates are statistically different from third-generation immigrant voter turnout rate at a 95 percent confidence interval


o be sure he difference in voer urnou raes across immigran generaions may be

parly due o variaion in he average age o voers across immigran generaions I is

common across racial and ehnic groups or voer urnou raes o vary by age group

wih older cohors voing a higher raes han younger groups15 In 2012 or example

he voer urnou rae or Lainos ages 18 o 39 was 42 percen while i was 62 percen

or Laino voers ages 60 and older16

TABLE 3

2012 voter turnout rate

by race and ethnicity

Turnout

rate

Asian 473

Black 662

Hispanic 480

White non-Hispanic 641

Source Bureau of the Census The Diversifying Electora

Voting Rate by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012

(US Department of Commerce 2013) available at

httpwwwcensusgovprod2013pubsp20-568pdf




Te mean age o eligible voers is 50 years or firs-generaion Laino immigrans 34

years or second-generaion Laino immigrans and 41 years or hird-generaion Laino

immigrans17 When we compared voer urnou raes beween immigran generaions

by age group immigrans and heir children sill had a higher voer urnou rae han

hird-generaion immigrans Simply pu hose coming rom an immigran household

are more likely o go o he polls and voe han someone who does no come rom an

immigran household

TABLE 5

2012 Latino voter turnout rates by immigrant generation and age group

18ndash39 40ndash59 60+

Latino 407 533 602

First-generation immigrants 414 546 641

Second-generation immigrants 424 563 578

Note No statistical difference between first- and second-generation immigrant voter turnout was found


First- and second-generation immigrants combined 422 552 623

Third-generation immigrants 388 518 575


Source Authorrsquos analysis of 2012 CPS November supplement

Impact on future elections

Tere are wo main implicaions o he ac ha second-generaion immigrans willconsiue a larger porion o he Laino elecorae in uure elecions

bull Te voer urnou rae o Lainos will likely risebull Immigraion reorm will likely become an even more salien issue or Laino voers

Increased voter turnout

Given ha a larger share o he Laino elecorae will come rom immigran households

in uure elecions as well as he ac ha immigrans and heir children end o have

higher voer urnou raes han hird-generaion immigrans i is probable ha as more

o his cohor eners he elecorae and ages he voer urnou rae or he Laino elec-

orae as a whole will increase




Specifically because second-generaion immigrans have higher voer urnou raes han

hird-generaion immigrans and because he second generaion is becoming a larger

share o he elecorae i ollows ha voer urnou raes or he Laino populaion a

large will likely increase Tis relaionship however is no a new one Looking back o

1996 here are periods over which firs- and second-generaion immigrans became a

larger share o he Laino elecorae and a he same ime he voer urnou rae or he

Laino elecorae as a whole had a saisically significan increase For example immi-grans and heir children wen rom being 49 percen o he Laino elecorae in 1996 o

51 percen in 2004 Over his period he voer urnou rae or he Laino elecorae as a

whole increased rom 44 percen in 1996 o 474 percen in 200418

TABLE 6

Increase in Latino voter turnout rate and immigrant share of Latino electorate

1996 2004 2004 2008

Latino voter turnout rate 44 472 4720 50

First- and second-generation immigrantsrsquo

share of Latino electorate

49 51 51 53

Note Bold numerals Indicate a statistically significant increase in voter turnout rate at a 95 percent confidence interval

Source Authorrsquos analysis of CPS November supplements from 1996 2004 and 2008

Bu one should no assume ha here is a direc causal relaionship in he example

above While i is likely ha he rising share o immigrans and heir children conrib-

ued o he increase in he Laino voer urnou raes in previous elecions his demo-

graphic shif alone canno explain he increase Tere are a muliude o acors such as

voing drives which migh have also conribued o increasing he Laino voer urnou

rae Looking orward hough991252i all ohers acors are equal991252as immigrans and heir

children make up a larger share o he elecorae he Laino voer urnou rae willlikely increase over ime

Increasing importance of immigration reform

I immigraion reorm is no passed his year hen he significance ha Lainos voers

give o immigraion reorm in uure elecions will probably increase because he Laino

elecorae will be more closely conneced o he immigran experience han in years

pas As firs- and second-generaion Laino immigrans grow as a share o he elecorae

heir direc experience wih he immigraion sysem will likely increase he imporance

o immigraion reorm as a policy prioriy across he Laino elecorae as a whole

Te policy views ha second-generaion immigrans hold oday are anoher indica-

ion ha immigraion reorm will be a greaer prioriy among he Laino elecorae

in uure elecions Across immigran generaions second-generaion immigrans are

he mos likely o believe ha immigraion reorm should be passed beore he nex




elecion In a recen poll 76 percen o second-generaion Laino immigrans hough

Congress and Presiden Obama should address immigraion reorm beore he nex

elecion compared wih 71 percen and 68 percen o firs- and hird-generaion

Laino immigrans respecively19

While i is impossible o know how a uure elecorae will view a specific policy such as

immigraion reorm mos recen polling indicaes ha he second-generaion immi-

gran populaion ends o place greaer imporance on immigraion reorm han oher

generaions Tis is no surprising given ha or some second-generaion immigrans

heir parens siblings or oher amily members are undocumened meaning ha hese

second-generaion immigrans have winessed heir amily members bear he brun o

our broken immigraion sysem In ac 68 percen o second-generaion Laino immi-

grans have a amily member or close riend who is undocumened21 Tus as second-

generaion immigrans become a larger share o he elecorae he share o he Laino

elecorae a large ha views immigraion reorm as a policy prioriy will likely increase

Second-generation immigrants are the driving force behind the growth of

the Latino electorate By 2016 nearly 2 million second-generation immi-

grants will turn age 18 and be eligible to vote While a majority of newly eli-

gible Latino voters currently hold unfavorable views on how House Repub-

licans are handling immigration reform a majority of them have indicated

in a recent Latino Decisions poll that if House Republicans pass immigration

reform Latinos would give them a second chance According to the poll 20

bull 76 percent of second-generation Latino immigrants believe that it isldquovery importantrdquo or ldquoextremely importantrdquo for Congress and the president

to address immigration reform this year

bull 69 percent of second-generation Latino immigrants disapprove of how

Republicans in Congress are handling immigration policy

bull 51 percent of second-generation Latino immigrants said they would be

more favorable toward Republicans than they currently are if House Speak-

er John Boehner (R-OH) allows a vote on immigration reform this year

Latino voters who are 18 to 39 years old also place great importance

on passing immigration reform and express similar disapproval of how

congressional Republicans are handling it According to the recent Latino

Decisions poll

bull 63 percent of eligible Latino voters ages 18 to 39 believe that it is ldquovery

importantrdquo or ldquoextremely importantrdquo for Congress and the president to

address immigration reform this year

bull 66 percent of eligible Latino voters ages 18 to 39 disapprove of how


bull 53 percent of Latinos ages 18 to 39 said they would be more favorable

toward Republicans than they currently are if House Speaker Boehner

allows a vote on immigration reform this year

Second-generation immigrants and 18- to 39-year-old voters polling on immigration reform




Conclusion

In recen congressional and presidenial elecions he Laino elecorae has proved o be

exremely influenial And his poliical influence coninues o grow each day as nearly

2000 Lainos urn age 18 and become eligible o voe All old 33 million Laino cii-

zens will urn age 18 beween 2012 and 2016 Nearly 60 percen o hese newly eligible

Laino voers will be second-generaion immigrans Tese children o immigrans have winessed firshand he impac our broken immigraion sysem has on heir amilies and

heir riends CAPrsquos analysis ound ha immigrans and heir children voe a higher raes

han hird-generaion immigrans Tus as immigrans and heir children become a larger

share o he Laino elecorae he voer urnou rae or Lainos will likely increase and

fixing our immigraion sysem will become a greaer prioriy han in previous elecions

As he window o opporuniy or he curren House o pass immigraion reorm closes

so oo does he chance or Republicans o gain he suppor o he Laino elecorae

in he 2014 and 2016 elecions Tere are nearly 2 million second-generaion Laino

immigrans who are coming o age and will be eligible o voe or he firs ime in 2016I Republicans wan o have a fighing chance in he 2016 elecion hey mus appeal o

he new elecorae and hey can do so by passing immigraion reorm

Patrick Oakford is a Policy Analyst in the Economic and Immigration Policy departments at

the Center for American Progress

Acknowledgments

Te auhor would like o hank Angela Maria Kelley Marshall Fiz Philip E Wolgin and Ann Garcia or heir helpul commens and suggesions




Endnotes

1 Border Security Economic Opportunity and ImmigrationModernization Act of 2013 S 744 133th Cong 1 sess(Government Printing Office 2013) For the roll call voteof S 744 see US Senate ldquoUS Senate Roll Call Votes 113th Congress - 1st sessionrdquo available at httpwwwsenategovlegislativeLISroll_call_listsroll_call_vote_cfmcfmcongress=113ampsession=1ampvote=00167 (last accessed June 2014)

2 Matt Barreto ldquoProving the exit polls wrong ndash Harry Reid didwin over 90 of the Latino voterdquo Latino Decisions Novem-ber 15 2010 available at httpwwwlatinodecisionscomblog20101115proving-the-exit-polls-wrong-harry-reid-did-win-over-90-of-the-latino-vote

3 Van Le ldquoBattleground State Exit Polling How Latino Vot-ers Influenced the 2012 Electionsrdquo Americarsquos Voice BlogNovember 9 2012 available at httpamericasvoiceorgblogbattleground-state-exit-polling-how-latino-voters-influenced-the-2012-elections

4 Latino Decisions ldquoCenter for American Progress ActionFundLatino Decisions Immigration Pollrdquo (2014) availableat httpwwwlatinodecisionscomfiles121401657185CAP_Poll_Results_-_Legislative_Resultspdf

5 Ann Garcia ldquoThe Facts on Immigration Todayrdquo (Wash-ington Center for American Progress 2013) available

at httpamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationre-port2013040359040the-facts-on-immigration-today-3

6 Authorrsquos tabulation of 2012 CPS November supplement

7 Ibid

8 Authorrsquos tabulations of CPS November supplements from1996 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

9 Bureau of the Census The Diversifying Electorate-VotingRate by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other RecentElections) (US Department of Commerce 2013) available athttpwwwcensusgovprod2013pubsp20-568pdf

10 Patrick Oakford and Vanessa Caacuterdenas ldquoInfographic TheGrowth of the Latino Electorate in Key Statesrdquo Center forAmerican Progress February 28 2013 available at httpamericanprogressorgissuesracenews2013022854251infographic-the-growth-of-the-latino-electorate-in-key-states-2

11 Authorrsquos tabulations of CPS November supplements from1996 and 2000


13 Bureau of the Census The Diversifying Electorate-Voting Rateby Race and Hispanic Origin in 2012 (and Other Recent Elec-tions)

14 There are also broader trends of first-generation Latinoimmigrants having higher voter turnout rates than second-generation Latino immigrants But across age groupsfirst- and second-generation immigrants have similar voterturnout rates See Table 4 above for more details Authorrsquostabulations of CPS November supplements from 19962000 2004 2008 and 2012




18 Authorrsquos tabulation of CPS November supplements from1996 2000 2004 2008 and 2012

19 Latino Decisions ldquoCenter for American Progress ActionFundLatino Decisions Immigration Pollrdquo

20 Ibid

21 Ibid




debae occurring in our counry Tus he House Republicansrsquo coninued rejecion o

immigraion reorm alienaes he ases-growing segmen o he Laino populaion

While House Republicans have a chance o redeem hemselves wih he Laino elecor-

ae beore he 2014 and 2016 elecions i is clear ha i hey do no ake up immigraion

reorm soon hey will cemen heir uure poliical demise

Tis issue brie breaks down he Laino elecorae by immigran generaion Specifically we ideniy he porions o he Laino elecorae ha are immigrans he children

o immigrans and hird-generaion immigrans Moreover he analysis shows ha

second-generaion immigrans are he driving orce behind he growh o he Laino

elecorae Te findings o his brie provide urher evidence ha i Republicans do no

help fix our immigraion sysem soon hey will coninue o isolae he Laino elecorae

Here are he key findings rom he Cener or American Progressrsquos analysis o he Laino

elecorae and he implicaions i will have on uure elecions

bull Immigrans and heir children are an increasing share o he Laino elecoraeImmigrans and heir children made up 49 percen o eligible Laino voers in 1996

Tis share climbed o 55 percen by 20126

bull Second-generaion immigrans are he driving orce behind he

growh o he Laino elecorae Beween 2012 and 2016 33 mil-

lion Laino ciizens will urn age 18 O hese 57 percen or nearly

2 million are he children o immigrans7

bull Immigrans and heir children are more likely o voe han hird-

generaion immigrans8

Tereore as immigrans and heir children become a larger share o he Laino elecorae he voer urnou

rae or Lainos will likely increase

bull As immigrans and heir children make up a larger share o he

Laino elecorae he imporance o immigraion reorm will only

coninue o grow or he elecorae as a whole

Changing demographics of the Latino electorate

Te Laino elecorae is growing a a aser rae han many oher racial

and ehnic groups and hereore is becoming a larger share o he US

elecorae In 2012 Lainos accouned or 11 percen o all eligible

voers9 Te Laino elecorae will increase by 17 percen rom 2012

o 201610 Bu wha is he source o is growh

bull First-generation immigrants Individuals who

were born abroad and moved to the United States

Only first-generation immigrants who are natural-

ized citizens are eligible to vote

bull Second-generation immigrants Individuals

born in the United States who have at least one pa

ent who is an immigrant

bull Third-generation immigrants US-born indiv

uals whose parents were born in the United States

bull Eligible voters All US citizens who are 18 years

of age or older

bull Voter turnout rates The share of all eligible vot

ers who voted

bull Immigrant household A household with at lea

one immigrant member

For the purposes of this briefkey terms are defined as follows









TABLE 1


First-time

eligible voters

in 2000

First-time

eligible voters

in 2004

First-time

eligible voters

in 2008

First-time

eligible voters

in 2012

First-time

eligible voters

in 2016
















TABLE 2


1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
























TABLE 4


1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Latinos 440 451 472 500 480




1996 2000 2004 2008 2012











TABLE 3



Turnout

rate

Asian 473

Black 662

Hispanic 480















immigran household

TABLE 5



Latino 407 533 602






























TABLE 6


1996 2004 2004 2008




49 51 51 53























































Decisions poll













Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid









TABLE 1


First-time

eligible voters

in 2000

First-time

eligible voters

in 2004

First-time

eligible voters

in 2008

First-time

eligible voters

in 2012

First-time

eligible voters

in 2016
















TABLE 2


1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
























TABLE 4


1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Latinos 440 451 472 500 480




1996 2000 2004 2008 2012











TABLE 3



Turnout

rate

Asian 473

Black 662

Hispanic 480















immigran household

TABLE 5



Latino 407 533 602






























TABLE 6


1996 2004 2004 2008




49 51 51 53























































Decisions poll













Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid

















TABLE 4


1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Latinos 440 451 472 500 480




1996 2000 2004 2008 2012











TABLE 3



Turnout

rate

Asian 473

Black 662

Hispanic 480















immigran household

TABLE 5



Latino 407 533 602






























TABLE 6


1996 2004 2004 2008




49 51 51 53























































Decisions poll













Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid










immigran household

TABLE 5



Latino 407 533 602






























TABLE 6


1996 2004 2004 2008




49 51 51 53























































Decisions poll













Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid













TABLE 6


1996 2004 2004 2008




49 51 51 53























































Decisions poll













Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid



































Decisions poll













Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid




Conclusion

















Acknowledgments





Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid




Endnotes








7 Ibid













20 Ibid

21 Ibid

The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Generation

Documents

Transcript of The Latino Electorate by Immigrant Generation