The Japanese Yen
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The Japanese Yen ¥
description
The Japanese Yen. ¥. Micah Brock, Michael Derocher, Ryan Early, Annie McDonough & Matt Warchol. The Birth of the Yen. Yen created by Meiji Government in 1871 under the New Currency Act Adoption of: Western style of currency Silver standard Decimal accounting system. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen
¥
Micah Brock, Michael Derocher, Ryan Early, Annie McDonough &
Matt Warchol
The Birth of the Yen
• Yen created by Meiji Government in 1871 under the New Currency Act– Adoption of:
• Western style of currency
• Silver standard
• Decimal accounting system
Adoption of Paper Money & the Gold Standard
• Coins Law of 1897– Stipulated that 0.75 grams of gold was equal to 1 yen– Gold-convertible bank notes (a.k.a. paper money)
also introduced by the Bank of Japan
Fundamental Changes
• In 1931, following the example of European countries, Japan stopped the export of gold and suspended the convertibility of its banknotes
• In 1942, the Bank of Japan law permanently ended the convertibility of its notes, marking a monumental shift from the gold standard to the managed currency system
The Yen Today
• Japan remains on a managed currency system
• Floating exchange rates– Increased volatility in the market
The Yen Today: The Dollar vs. The Yen
• While all other major world currencies have been appreciating against the dollar, the yen has been depreciating
• Depreciation attributable to reported monetary contractions for three straight quarters in the Japanese economy with no reported expansionary policies in future
The Yen in the Future
• The Yen has faced serious pressure in the past few months due to a weak Japanese economy and cross-selling pressure from other currencies with higher yields
• However, net short positions on the yen are currently at an 11 month low
Technical Analysis
Yen Depreciation
100.00
101.00
102.00
103.00
104.00
105.00
106.00
107.00
Date
Series1
Technical Analysis
Yen Depreciation
100.00
101.00
102.00
103.00
104.00
105.00
106.00
107.00
Date
Series1
Technical AnalysisUSD/JPY
99.00
100.00
101.00
102.00
103.00
104.00
105.00
106.00
107.00
108.00
Series1
Fundamental Analysis
United StatesEconomic Growth 4.7%
Money Growth 4.9%
Inflation 2.3%
Interest Rates 1.26%
Trade Balance -$75.2B
(with Japan)
Japan2.6%
3.9%
-0.3%
0.1%
+$75.2B
Market Expectations
• Current USD/JPY exchange rate:
0.009483¥/$
• 12-month USD/JPY forward rate
0.009782¥/$
Our long-term recommendation:
Buy the dollar. Sell the yen, it is garbage.
