THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY 4.0 PLAN...THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY 4.0 PLAN: ex-ante identification of potential...
Transcript of THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY 4.0 PLAN...THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY 4.0 PLAN: ex-ante identification of potential...
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THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY 4.0
PLAN: ex-ante identification of potential beneficiaries,
ex-post assessment of the use of incentives
Giulio Perani, Stefano Costa, Stefano De Santis
Department of statistical production, Istat (Italy)
Impact of R&I Policy at the Crossroads of Policy Design, Implementation, Evaluation – Vienna, 5-6 November 2018
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THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY
FRAMEWORK
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INDUSTRY 4.0 POLICY IN
ITALY: A STRATEGY
Fiscal incentives Super-depreciation
Hyper-depreciation
R&D
incentives
Patent-
box
Easy access to
finance
Development of
skills
Nuova Sabatini, loans
Tax breaks for investing start-
ups
Guarantee Fund for
SMEs
Digital Innovation Hubs I4.0 Competence
Centres
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SUPPORTING TANGIBLE
INVESTMENTS AND DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATION
PROCESSES • SUPER-
DEPRECIATION
• HYPER-
DEPRECIATION
Costs for investments in new machinery are
increased (for fiscal reduction purposes) by 40% of
their value.
Costs for investments in digitally-connected
devices and related software are increased (for fiscal
reduction purposes) by 150% of their value.
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MONITORING INDIRECT
INCENTIVES
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THE CHALLENGE: EX ANTE EVALUATION
AND ON-GOING MONITORING
December
2015 2016 June
2017 July
2017
December 2015:
the 2016
Budget Law
introduces the
tax incentive
Fiscal year
2016:
Firms invest
in new
machinery
June 2017:
Cost
statements
2016 delivered
by firms
(incl. total 2016
investments)
July 2017:
Tax
statements
2016
collected by
the Tax
Agency
February 2018:
Tax data made
available by
the Tax
Agency for
analysis
February
2018
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POLICY MONITORING: LOOKING FOR
NEW SOURCES OF DATA
MISE
Customs Industrial
association
s Production
statistics
Official business
surveys
Commercial
surveys /
polls
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POLICY MONITORING: LOOKING FOR
NEW SOURCES OF DATA
MISE
Customs Industrial
association
s Production
statistics
Official business
surveys
Commercial
surveys /
polls
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TWO EXAMPLES OF STATISTICAL
MONITORING OF POLICIES ISTAT Business confidence survey (late 2017)
• Sample 4,000 manufacturing firms
• For 62.1% of firms super-depreciation had a ‘high’or
‘moderate’ role to increase their investments (53.3%
for hyper-depreciation).
MET business survey (late 2017)
• Sample 23,700 firms (including micro-firms, <10
empls.)
• 15.2% of firms used either the super- or hyper-
depreciation (47.5% for medium-large ones).
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DIGITALISATION AND
INCENTIVES
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THE ISTAT EXERCISE: RESEARCH
QUESTIONS 1. Does the level of digitalisation affect the
propensity to use incentives for investing in:
a) New machinery ?
b) Digital technologies ?
2. Might the level of digitalisation be used to identify
potential beneficiaries of incentives to invest in
technology ?
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A FIRMS’ TAXONOMY BY DIGITALISATION
LEVEL
3 more digital
indicators:
cloud and big data;
social media; IoT, VR,
add.prnting,
robotics.
EUROSTAT’s
Digital Intensity
Index
(12 indicators on
ICT use and e-
commerce)
Endowment of
fixed capital
and human
capital.
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A FIRMS’ TAXONOMY BY DIGITALISATION
LEVEL Analogic,
64.6%
Potentially
digital-
oriented, 20.7%
Digital-
oriented,
9.4%
Partially
digitalised
,
2.3% Fully
digitalised,
3.0%
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A FIRMS’ TAXONOMY BY DIGITALISATION
LEVEL Analogic,
64.6%
Potentially
digital-
oriented, 20.7%
Digital-
oriented,
9.4%
Partially
digitalised
,
2.3% Fully
digitalised,
3.0%
Medium-low
capitalisation,
medium-low
staff
qualification
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A FIRMS’ TAXONOMY BY DIGITALISATION
LEVEL Analogic, 64.6%
Potentially
digital-
oriented, 20.7%
Digital-
oriented,
9.4%
Partially
digitalised
,
2.3% Fully
digitalised,
3.0%
Medium-high
capitalisation,
medium-high
staff
qualification
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A FIRMS’ TAXONOMY BY DIGITALISATION
LEVEL Analogic, 64.6%
Potentially
digital-
oriented, 20.7%
Digital-
oriented,
9.4%
Partially
digitalised
,
2.3% Fully
digitalised,
3.0%
Medium
High
Low
De
gre
e o
f d
igit
alisati
on
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THE EXPECTED IMPACT OF INCENTIVES
(2017 ISTAT ICT SURVEY)
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ACTUAL 2016 DATA ON
INCENTIVES
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THE ACTUAL USE OF INCENTIVES (2016
TAX AGENCY DATA)
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THE ACTUAL USE OF INCENTIVES (2016
TAX AGENCY DATA)
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THE ACTUAL USE OF HYPER-
DEPRECIATION (TAX AGENCY DATA)
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YEARLY AVERAGE % INCREASE OF
WORKING CAPITAL PER EMPLOYEE.
SUPER- AND HYPER-DEPRECIATION.
YEAR 2016.
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WHICH FACTORS AFFECT THE
USE OF INCENTIVES ?
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PROPENSITY TO USE SUPER-
DEPRECIATION
(ANALOGIC FIRMS AS A BENCHMARK)
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PROPENSITY TO USE HYPER-
DEPRECIATION
(ANALOGIC FIRMS AS A BENCHMARK)
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PROPENSITY TO USE SUPER-
DEPRECIATION (RANDOM FOREST)
Code Variable name
va_add Productivity (value
added /p.e.)
k_add Working capital/p.e.
ind_patr Debt/capital ratio
integr Vertical integration
addetti Persons employed
tenure_pr Tenure (years, avg.)
anni_studi
o_pro
Years of study of
employees (av)
sottosezni Economic activity
etaimp Firm’s age (years)
digital_ind
ex
Digital intensity (5
groups)
exp Exporter status
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PROPENSITY TO USE HYPER-
DEPRECIATION (RANDOM FOREST)
Code Variable name
va_add Productivity (value
added /p.e.)
k_add Working capital/p.e.
ind_patr Debt/capital ratio
integr Vertical integration
addetti Persons employed
tenure_pr Tenure (years, avg.)
anni_studi
o_pro
Years of study of
employees (av)
sottosezni Economic activity
etaimp Firm’s age (years)
digital_ind
ex
Digital intensity (5
groups)
exp Exporter status
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CONCLUSIONS
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MAIN FINDINGS
1. The level of digitalisation does not affect the access
to incentives thus, as a consequence:
a) It does not affect the level of investment in new
technology.
(Do ICT surveys produce indicators relevant to the
measurement of firms’ « digitalisation » ?)
2. Monitoring the use of incentives with surveys is
clearly biased by an optimistic attitude of
respondents.
3. Technical, financial and human capabilities are the
key factors boosting investment in new technologies.
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POLICY ISSUES
1. Making digitalisation targets more realistic for a
largest population of firms.
2. Increasing the impact by preventing pulverisation of
incentives.
3. Focusing public support on firms (mainly SMEs) only
« potentially » digitalised.
4. Considering a « two steps » approach (already partly
implemented):
a) Supporting the development of capabilities, then
b) Funding the digitalisation process.