The issue of 'water and food security' a perspective ... · The issue of «The issue of « water...

The issue of « water and food security »The issue of « water and food security »a perspective

2013, February 21-22

A Presentation proposed on behalf of the SESAME working group on "indicators"

Guillaume BENOITChair, PFE group on "Water and Food Security”

General Engineer, CGAAER, France

, y

g , ,

1

AL AlbaniaBA Bosnia-Herz

• Contributions, ReferencesBlue Plan, IME, MargatCIHEAM IPEMED/FEMISE IWMI FAO CIRAD

BA Bosnia-Herz.CY CyprusDZ AlgeriaEG EgyptCIHEAM, IPEMED/FEMISE, IWMI, FAO, CIRAD…

CGAAER (WWF6 report from PFE group), CGDA, INRA France & Morocco, Hamdane,..

the SESAME working GROUP on INDICATORS : CGAAER, Blue Plan, CHIEAM

EG EgyptES SpainFR FranceGR Greece

• AcronymsHR CroatiaIL IsraelIT Italy

– MED : Mediteranean riparian countries– PNM : North Rim countries (ES to GR)

PSEM : South and East Rim countries (MA to TR)

yLB LebanonLY LibyaMA Morocco

– PSEM : South and East Rim countries (MA to TR)

– PAM : the Mediterranean Arab Countries (Jordan included)

– MENA : Middle East & North Africa

MC MonacoME MontenegroMT MaltaPS PalestineSI SloveniaSY SyriaTN T i iTN TunisiaTR Turkey

2G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Presentation outline

1. A global challenge: 7 joint priorities2. Within the Mediterranean: risks of deadlocks 3. Water for food, agriculture and territories

– Agriculture and rurality: importance, contrast and weaknesses– Irrigation: risks of deadlocks, alternatives ways

Rainfed agriculture: risks of deadlocks alternative ways– Rainfed agriculture: risks of deadlocks, alternative ways

4. Conclusions


1/ A GLOBAL CHALLENGE

Water :Food Security :A rising issue : the 2007-2008 crisis, G20, WWF6…

yFor feeding :- one billion hungry

No Water No Agriculture

Systems in danger :

• shortages, droughts ..i i C l il bili

o e b o u g y- one more billion to come (2027)

Systems in danger :

• overexploitation, salinization in irrigated systems

• erosion, desertification in rainfed

• increase in Cereal availability+ 340 millions tons by 2027 (= USA)

• access to food erosion, desertification in rainfed systems

• land and water losses through urban sprawl and agricultural

> 50% budget for poor households• stability• nutrition urban sprawl and agricultural

abandonmentnutrition

Better manage water / soils / systems for increasing: availability (+ 70%), income for rural people, sustainability, quality and stabilityp p , y, q y y

NB: the Global Cereal Production is 2.3 billion tons (2012). To feed one billion more people by 2027 (with no inclination towards eating more meat), it would be necessary to increase the available production by 328,000 tons, i.e. roughly the USA Cereal Production in 2005 (366,000 tons)


Evolution in the number of hungry people between 1990 and 2010(people in million) – Source: FAO

Hungrypeoplepeople

(75% ruralpeople)

Source: CIHEAM/Abis, data FAO

Asia Sub-saharan Africa Latin America Middle East/North Africa


Global Food Security | Blue Water & Green WaterIrrigation :

20% global agricultural lands ; end of strong growth1961 2009 + 117% (+162 illi h )• 1961-2009 : + 117% (+162 million ha)

• 2009-2050 : + 9% à + 16% (FAO, IWMI) 40% global production (with productivity 3 times more than rainfed )g p ( p y )

Rainfed : 60% global production, a main challenge for the 21st century?

Who manages,who produces ?

2 6 billi f ( t d fi )2,6 billion farmers (steady figures)

« Small farming » : 70% ofglobal productionglobal production

Significant room for progress and productivity improvement

Source: FAO & FIDAFarmland per capita (ha)Non irrigated Irrigated


Intensification per ha 1960-2010 : contrasting Nord/SudGl b l A i l l P l 2 6 billi ( d )Crop (kcal / day)

per haGlobal Agricultural People: 2,6 billion (steady)

400 000

200 000

h t

100 000 kcal per farmer

12 500 25 00050 000

6 250 hectarescropped

per farmer

12 5006 250

2 105 20Area cultivated (ha) per farmer

Source CIRAD B. Dorin from FAO data, in "Agrimonde" (Paillard & al., 2010)

( ) p


Unevenly distributed resources

Dry areas (arid, semi-arid)

2,5 % of continental water373 millions people in 1950 1 2 billi i 20001.2 billion in 2000 1.8 billion in 2025 (22 % people)

Water scarcity Physical scarcityEconomical scarcityEconomical scarcity

8Source: IWMI


Which prospects, globally ?Strengths WeaknessesStrengths• No global lack of water• Irrigation extension in the 20th century 20% / 40%. But strong development is behind

Weaknesses• Misallocated water, increasing shortages • Urbans tend to forget their dependency on countryside: insecurity in rural areas (rainfedBut strong development is behind

• Numerous examples of solutions local governance, agronomics (eg SRI), policy (eg Vietnam,…)

countryside: insecurity in rural areas (rainfed, smallholder farming), rights and competition, lack of rural policy, investment, training, market access + waste => higher prices, riots, hunger, poverty• Many systems in danger: erosion, overfishing, drought, ... and less oil and chemistry! Paradigm change required Threats

• No integration between Development and Environment• Non inclusive Development (small farms)

k f i d d iOpportunities

• Lack of awareness on 3 interdependancies (urban/rural, upstream/downstream, country) Defects in policies, cooperation, concertation• Climate change

pp• Crisis : agriculture, a strategic priority• G20, analysis from IWMI, FAO, WWF6.…• Potential: small agriculture ecological• Climate change

• A « Busines as usual » scenario expensive and at high risk• A global crisis may result from accumulated local

Potential: small agriculture, ecologicalintensification, storage efficiency, waste reduction• Manage as if « common goods », territorial governance (Ostrom)A global crisis may result from accumulated local

accidents


WWF6 : Act simultaneously in 7 directionsWater demand management policies

• Innovation in agronomics• Organizations/institutions• Policies of Demand Management

More efficient resourcemobilization

• Storage …• Non conventional waters

Rainfed : « conservation » agriculture

• Ecological intensification: direct seeding, permanent cover,…

Support to small scale • Rights of access to water empowermentSupport to small-scale agriculture / water valorization

• Rights of access to water, empowerment• « Terroir » territorial approach• Rural policies (eg 2nd CAP Pillar PMV)

Manage hot spots • Overexploited aquifers• Drinkwater catchments, fragile and valuable environments

Act upstream and downstream of production

• Soil losses + Food waste• Social safety nets (PSE)

Visions & strategies S b nat Regions ( atershed/prod ction)

10

Visions & strategies • Sub-nat Regions (watershed/production)• Int’l Regions (eg MED / Euro-Med)


Achieve a paradigm shiftAn era of changeAn era of change…

sustainableholo-centrism

SustainableAgriculture:

agriculture

• New urban/rural terms (up/down-stream, resource-rich/poor countries)precision

techno-centrismorganic

éco-centrismc /poo cou es)

• Produce better, more, everywhere. Productivity & ecosystem alliance /

precision agriculture

organicagriculture

ecosystem alliance / sustainable resource management / diversity• Knowledge intensive

Conventional • Knowledge-intensive systems (local x formal)• Territorial governance

S ll l

industrialagriculture

réductionnism• Support to small-scale agriculture…a change of era


Quatre grands principes pour un avenir durable

1. Sustainable intensification: a productivity &

3. Support small-scale agriculturea productivity &

ecosystem alliance agriculture

2 Innovation: technical and 4. Territorial governance / 2. Innovation: technical and organisational, R & D

gprinciple of subsidiarity


Territorialization

Four main territorial scales

• Local : water / agriculture management: the « arts of community »

city / agriculture : reduce wastes, conserve lands, …

• Sub National Region/ Basin : planification• Sub-National Region/ Basin : planification

• National : law, policies. Agricultural, rural, food policies

• Necessary policy convergence

• International region : common destiny, conflict prevention, shared vision : towards a Euromed « new deal » ?

Principle of subsidiarity

vision : towards a Euromed « new deal » ?

Principle of subsidiarity


2/ MEDITERRANEAN : RISKS OF DEADLOCKSRising needs : + 63 million people within 15 yearsRising needs : + 63 million people within 15 years

PSEM : still high population growth, despite the decline in fertility rates

Fertility rates

600

Population 1950 ‐ 2010 et projection variante moyenneMillions d'habitants

despite the decline in fertility rates

600The Mediterranean Population 1950-2010 and its average projection to 2100

400

500

MéditerranéeTotal MED

2025

200

300

Nord

Sud & Est

200North

South & East

0

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

S Pl Bl d' è UN W ld P l i P h 2010 R i i1950 2025 20502010 2100

Population in the Mediterranean(1950: 206 million) 2010 : 471 million

More Needs to be metFoodJ b 15 illi b t 2010

Source: Blue Plau, Data UN

Source : Plan Bleu d'après UN ‐World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision

Source CIHEAM/Abis, data UN

2010 : 471 million 2025 : 534 (+ 63 million) 2050 : 590 (+ 119 million)

Jobs: 15 million more between 2010 and 2020 (50% in EG)

…


2025 a rapid Urbanisation : cities to be fed


Food: the first item in the household budgetAn issue of price income and competitivenessAn issue of price, income and competitiveness

yw

er p

arity

asin

g po

win

pur

cha

er c

apita

G

DP

pe

Proportion of household budget spent on Food p g p


Unevenly distributed (blue) water resourceE t h d t h d

North (*) :

East : shared watersheds

North (*) :90% of water resource Water demand = 138 km3

% f i= 13% of potential conventional resource

South (**) : 10% of water resource10% of water resourceWater demand = 116 km3= 105% of potential

conventional resource

Internal resource

National resource, km3 (2005)

External resource fromRiparian countries

conventional resource

Southern Mediterranean = 60% of the global water-poor population

Non-riparian countries

(*) Portugal included; (**) Jordan not incl. (Source Margat 2012)


irrigated systems + rainfed systems + importationsFood Security in the Mediterranean

irrigated systems + rainfed systems + importations= the combined Blue + Green + « Virtual » waters

A i l l Agricultural systems

Irrigated zones (old and new)

Several fertile plains , and large areas with agro-woodland-pastoral systems18G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food Security in the Mediterranean :1960-2005: the irrigated area was doubled1960-2005: the irrigated area was doubled

Irrigation:g26 million ha :

PSEM 13,4PNM 12,6

Irrigation

+ 95% since 1961,

End of growth since 2005 ( t bilit d ti PNM)ha Rainfed (stability, reduction PNM)

Potential used PSEM 90 to 100% (except TR, LB, DZ)m

illio

n h Rainfed

0.25 ha00% (e cep , , )

Arable land and permanent crops:

Pasture and rangelands

permanent crops:90 millions ha

Pasture and rangelandsSource CIHEAM / Brun 2013 (data FAOSTAT)

Pasture and rangelands130 millions ha


Food Security in the Mediterranean : which waters?

World MediterraneanVirtual water Importations nettes 0 136

Water borrowed by crops

(evapo transpiration)

Watering by rain (green water)

5.560 447

I i ti 1 570 102*(evapo-transpiration) Irrigation (blue water)

1.570 102*

Total water for food security 7.130 685

Water mobilized by Irrigation 2.664 (70%) 173 (60%)

Cities 381 (10%) 38ymen (withdrawal +production.) =

Cities 381 (10%) 38

Evap from reservoirs

- 23

Blue waterdemand reservoirsIndustry, fuel 785 (20%) 57

Total blue water 3 830 (100%) 296Total blue water 3.830 (100%) 296

Source IWMI (global figures), Blue Plan (Mediterranean figures); * calculated from IWMI world (1570/2664x173)


Food Security in the Mediterranean : which waters?4 i i ti AEau

(volumes km3/yr; 2000-2005)1

Rainfed2

Blue water for

Irrigation

3Virtual water

4Blue water(all uses)

irrigation / blue water

(2/4) %

Ag.water (1+2+3) /

total water (1+3+4)

MA+ DZ + TN 68 14 68 18 79% 97%EG +LY 1 62 27 75 83% 85%

IL + PS + SY + LB 16 16 13 20 84% 94%TR 85 30 4 40 75% 92%

GR+AL+ BA+ HA+ 37 8 10 12 68% 93%GR+AL+ BA+ HA+ SI+ME

37 8 10 12 68% 93%

ES+ IT+ MT+ CY 140 38 24 65 58% 88%

FR 100 4 - 10 35 12% 75%

Total MED 448 173 136 265 65% 90%Total MED 448 173 136 265 65% 90%Food Security = + 90% of water resource

Importance of blue and virtual waters How to optimize the triad

Source Blue Plan 2012, period 2000-2005

p

Particular case : Egypt, FranceHow to optimize the triad

blue - green – virtual waters ?21G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

Food Security in the Mediterranean : which waters?

W t f F d S itRainfed : 448 km3,

Water for Food Security : 90% of total water

,Irrigated : 173 km3 (60% of total Blue water) Virtual : 136 km3


Climate change : a predicted fall in run-offs

%

Effects of climate change on runoff : [2041-2060], compared to [1900-1970] (%)

Source: Global warming and water availability, P.C.D., Milly, United States geological survey (USGS).


Climate : already severe impacts

Run-off VariabilityRun off VariabilityClimate Change

• Maroc3-decadal averaged runoff series3 decadal averaged runoff series

into Bin el Ouidane

• Montpellier / Languedoc-Roussillon (France) 2010/1980– Temperature (average) summer : + 2,3° winter : + 0,8°– Rainfall : significant increase in inter-annual variability– Climate : shift from semi-humid to semi-arid– Evapotranspiration: + 240 mm in plains (+ 20 à 30%) + 125 mm on hillsEvapotranspiration: + 240 mm in plains (+ 20 à 30%), + 125 mm on hills– Loss in agricultural production (equivalent): - 11% (- 0,9 ton dry-matter/ha)


Southern France : Climate Change trajectories since 1979SUMMER ARIDITY i d

rran

ean

ridrran

ean

mid

rate

ate

dry

dity

erra

nean

ub-h

umid

m

pera

te

rate

dry

SUMMER ARIDITY indexex

Med

iter

sem

i-ar

Med

iter

sub-

hum

Tem

per

Tem

pera

sub-

Med

Med

. su

sub-

tem

Tem

per

Humid

DIY

inde

AL

AR

ID

Sub-humid

Drysub-humid

AN

NU

A

Semi-arid

Source : INRA


Climate Change: France getting more ‘‘Mediterranean’’

Alpine

Sub–AlpineSub Alpine

Fir

OakOak

Chestnut

M iti Pi

Source INRA

Maritime Pine

Holm Oak

A more Mediterranean Climate (water deficit > 400 mm) :• to affect 25 / 30% of territory since 2040; > 50% by 2100 ?M j h d i l l dMajor changes announced on: water, agriculture, landscapes


the Mediterranean Population exposed to water poverty or shortage (2010, 2025, 2050)water poverty or shortage (2010, 2025, 2050)

Population (million) 2010 2025 2050Population (million) 2010 2025 2050

Total MED 471 534 590

Shortage ( < 500 m3 per capita) 64 114 287

Poverty ( 500 - 1000 m3 ) 135 133 5

T i ( ) 4 0 0Tension ( 1000 - 1500 m3) 4 0 0

Comfort ( > 1500 m3) 268 287 299( ) 7 99•Source: Population: UN

Water: Blue PlanAssumptions on resource decline from USGS map

All Mediterranean countries of South Rim + Middle East (except Lebanon) to be in a marked water-shortage situation by 2050 ?


2010 290 million to become water-short in the Mediterranean by 2050?

Water resource per capita. comfort

i

y

tensionpoverty shortage : 64 million in 2010

illi i287 million in 2050

2025

20502050

Source données:• Population: UN (World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision)• Water resource: Blue Plan• Assumptions on climate-originated water resourcee decline by 2025 / 2050, from USGS map


Cereal imports multiplied by 20 in 50 years? (MENA)

MENA : imports grew from 3 t 60 illi t

Cereal imports into MENA 1960 – 2011 (M tons) Increase in

half a century3 to 60 million tons

Wheat Imports in Egypt :

Before 1939 : 30.000 tons

Now : 10,4 million tons

In 1939, Maghreb export 700.000 tons of wheat towards FR

In 2010, Algeria imports 6,4 millionIn 2010, Algeria imports 6,4 million tons

Food Deficit for MENAMENA

•2003 : - 752 Gkcal/day

•2050 : -1436 Gkcal/day

MENA=30%

of globalcereal

imports

Source : CIHEAM / Abis

(average of 4 scénarios Agrimonde)imports


Dependency on food imports + world prices rising= exploding the amounts of agricultural deficit= exploding the amounts of agricultural deficit

FAO Price index (S FAO)

Arab Mediterranean countries Amounts of agricultural deficit:FAO Price index (Source FAO) Amounts of agricultural deficit:

evolution 1980-2011 (billion $)

Source : CIHEAM/Abis, données OMC

Average deficit (2007-2011)

Arab Med Countries 21,4 billion USDAlgeria 7,2 billion USDEgypt 5,9 billion USD

30

Source : CIHEAM/Abis, données OMC Egypt 5,9 billion USD


Consumer subsidies (food and energy) a cost that becomes fiscally unsustainablea cost that becomes fiscally unsustainable

Amounts odf subsidies (food and fuel)

food energy Total

Amounts odf subsidies (food and fuel) en % GDP (PSEM 2007-2008)

Evolution 2001-2011 gy

Egypte 1,8 6,7 8,5

Jordan 1,8 1,4 3,2

Case Morocco (% GDP)

, 1,4 3,2

Syria 2,3 10,3* 12,6

Tunisia 1 5 1** 2 5Tunisia 1,5 1 2,5

Morocco 1,2 3,8 5,0

PSEM 1 2 3 9 5 1PSEM 1,2 3,9 5,1

Source FEMISE, data IMF

(*)including, (**) excluding indirect or implicit subsidies


Subsidies for « fuel and food »

- subsidies that can :• benefit mainly the rich

• subsidize imports (wheat ...) to the detriment of local production

• subsidize overuse of water (grants for oil and gas), and hinder the energy transition

• or cause food price inflation : Syria : + 40% from June, 2011 to June, 2012

HOW TO REFORM ?

• better selecting targetsg g

• move towards direct cash transfers with social and environmental conditionality: PES (Payments for Environmental Services) ??


3/ WATER FOR FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND TERRITORIES1. Agriculture and rurality: importance, contrasts et fragilities2. Irrigation: risks of deadlocks and alternatives3. Rainfed agriculture : risks of deadlocks and alternativesg

Agricultural systems

Irrigated zones (old and new)


3.1 Agriculture and ruralityA i lt l P l t ti N th/S thAgricultural People : contrasting North/South

World 2203 to 2601 million

China 743 to 776 million

Arab Mediterranean countries 50 to 41 million

China 743 to 776 million

Turkey 18 to 12 million

France Italy Spain 18 to 3 million

Source : data FAOSTAT 2012

France Italy Spain 18 to 3 million

Source : data FAOSTAT 2012presentation CGAAER Dec, 2012


PSEM : the strategic importance of agricultureA crucial sector• 72 million (25% total Med. population)• 25% jobs (30 to 40% in MA TR)• 25% jobs (30 to 40% in MA, TR)• Up to 20% GDP. Strong contribution to growth in many countries (including Tunisia

with a diversified economy: agriculture signs 1/3 GDP growth)

A still dual sector, an often still low productivity• Deviations in tenure size, importance of subsistance farming• Poor access to credit, technology, subsidies for numerous small/medium farmers • Low water productivity (irrigated and rainfed) / yields (depending on country)

A ( h j ) k d l i h i l l i d i lA (the major) key to « development »: economic , human, social, rural, industrial and for food security

• Potential for progress (when professionnalisation/structuring small/medium farmers) • Brilliant recent successes in structuring and professionalization for smallholder

agriculture (eg COPAG) demonstrate the potential• New agricultural policies (eg the Green Morocco Plan 2008-2020) New ag cu tu a po c es (eg t e G ee o occo a 008 0 0)

Relative weight of difficult areas / challenge and need for rural developpement35G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

The relative weight of difficult areas : case MoroccoP i i LargeAgro-

ecosystems Mountains Saharan, Oasian Semi-arid

Propitiousrainfed

Large irrigation perimeters

Total

UAA** (M h ) 1 7 / 0 2 0 2 / 0 1 3 8 / 0 1 2 3 / 0 1 0 71UAA** (M ha)

/ Irrigated surface

1,7 / 0,2 0,2 / 0,1 3,8 / 0,1 2,3 / 0,1 0,718,7 / 1,3

UAA / total 15% 29% 60% 100% 12%UAA / total agro-systems 15% … 29% 60% 100% 12%

ruralpopulation 3,7 0,9 5,1 3,0 * 12,7p p

agricultural population 2,7 0,6 3,7 1,9 * 8,9

number ofnumber of farms 473.000 85.000 520.000 288.000 100.000 1,5 million

• micro farms600.000R l ti

Difficult areas2/3 UAA 1/3 i i t d UAA l d

Propitious areas1/3 UAA 2/3 i i t d UAA • S/M farms

750.000• large farms

150 000

Relative weights

2/3 UAA; 1/3 irrigated UAA, rangelands70% farms80% agricultural & rural populationC iti

1/3 UAA, 2/3 irrigated UAA30% farms20% agricultural & rural

population 150.000Communities populationSource Agricultural Morocco Atlas 2009, CGDA, population census1996* The people in large irrigated perimeters are included in ‘semi-arid’ and ‘propitious rainfed’ zones ** UAA = utilized agricultural area (SAU in French)


Land fragmentation + Cereals = Poverty trap? (eg estimated income for a median si e farm in Morocco)(eg estimated income for a median size farm in Morocco)

Deficit in investment and added value

1.5 million 19.7 million

Excessive fragmentation of the UAA Simulated annual income

(DH)Tomato

Applehalf of the farmsare less than

2.1 ha

Apple

Orange

Olive

37

Farms UAA (ha)

Wheat

37A cereal cropping farm over 2,1 ha = annual income 180 € Source: MAP Morocco


Imbalance in i i l d lterritorial development =

precarity in rural areas

Tunisia:Tunisia:income situation

coastal areas vs

inland areas(though water providers)Number of people

with less than 2 $/day (%)

Poverty threshold 2 $/daythreshold 2 $/day


Territorial imbalances:= systems endangered from= systems endangered from

upstream to downstream

Hinterlands / water collecting areas:• Marginalization, poverty• Erosion, desertification• Fires, abandonment

Coastal areas :• Coveted water and land,• Artificialization,• Water overexploitation eau, Soil

salinization

Interdependancies up-/down-streamp p• Rural exodus / exporting poverty

to cities• Erosion / siltation of reservoirs

Source Blue Plan


Territorial imbalances: abandonment and urban sprawl in the Northabandonment and urban sprawl in the North

L f d ti l dNorth Rim Countries

Loss of productive land• –13 million ha UAA in 50 years

• – 10 million ha pasture

Irrigation

p

• urban sprawl in France 65.000 ha/an !

Rainfed + big fires : 4,6% of Portugal burnt in 2003

Rainfed

Agriculture : an adjustment variable?

Pasture and rangelands

Source CIHEAM/ Brun 2013, data FAOUrban sprawl also affects PSEM. Losses documented in Grand Algiers : 140.000 ha ;

40

p g ;in Egypt : 10.000 ha/year (14% UAA in 42 years) ; in Lebanon : 15% irrigated lands in 20 years

(Source Blue Plan 2005 & several national sources)40G. Benoit - Seminar on Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean - Montpellier - February 21-22, 2013

3.2 Irrigation : risks of deadlocks and alternativesD d d i h/ hDemand and resources (km3: 2000-2008) : contrasting north/south

1

T t lSource : IME/ /Margat (data Blue Plan)

Mediterranean countries North rim

South & East(incl. Turkey)

TotalRiparian c.

Exploitable resources 310 190 500Exploitable resources 310 190 500

Water demand :• irrigation

12644%

17072%

29660%

• evaporation from reservoirs• drinking water• énergy

4%18%25%

11%9%4%

8%13%13%

• industry 10% 4% 7%

Supply sources :• renewable primary resources (incl

126125

170148

296273renewable primary resources (incl.

• fossile water overexploitation)• withrawals from secondary resources• reuse (into irrigation)

125001

1486610

2736610

41

reuse (into irrigation)• desalinization 0.6 0.3 1


R ff bili ti A il bl t it

Le contraste nord /sud : exemplesLe contraste nord /sud : exemplesContrasting North/South : examples

200%

Runoff mobilizationrate for irrigation

Available storage capacitycompared to average runoff

200%

50%

averagerunoff 70%

2.5%15%3%

• Countries that have the least resources are those that store the most A i ifi i l i & i bili d i h N h• A significant potential in storage & resources remains un-mobilized in the North

Figures used for calculation :* In rough numbers

• France Withdrauwals from Garonne river upstream of Dordogne confluence : 3% ( 440 million withdrawn from 14 billion m3 runoff ) • France Storage Adour 2,5%; Charente : 2,1% . Upper Adour : storage 10 mm / yr; runoff : 400 mm/yr over 4100 km2. Upper Charente : storage 2,1%; runoff 250 mm/yr over 3750 km2• Ebro : storage 70 mm/yr; runoff : 140mm/yr over 85550 km2. Runoff 14 billion m3 • Oum Er Rbia : storage 160 mm/yr; runoff : 80 mm/yr over 3000 km2. Withdrawals 2 billion m3 from runoff 2,5 billion m3


Irrigated systems in danger :1/ Water overexploitation U t i bl t d ti i d1/ Water overexploitation : Unsustainable water production indexes

Unsustainable exploitation: 14 to 16 km3/yr, including SY (4,4 à 6,4), LY (3,6), DZ (1,8), ES (1,1)

Water demand (km3)‘Unsustainable’ water (%)

Period 2000-2005

43

Unsustainable water = Overexploitation +Unrenewable exploitation


2. Increased and uneven competition, widening inequalities– cities / tourism / agriculture– large agricultural investors / rural communities

‘Water scarcity induces competition for water that can lead to conflicts In theWater scarcity induces competition for water that can lead to conflicts. In the absence of clear and well-established rules, power plays an excessive role, leading to inequitable allocation. In semi arid regions an increasing number of rural poor now see theirIn semi-arid regions, an increasing number of rural poor now see their entitlement and access to water as their primary cause for concern.’

Alexander Müller, Assistant Director Général FAO; in CGAAER 2012

3. Salinization• Turkey; 33% irrigated lands; 1.5 million ha lost

E 35% l d ff d (1 21 illi h )• Egypt: 35% lands affected (1.21 million ha)• Mediterranean Europe: 1 million ha affected (Spain : 3.5%)

4. Siltation of reservoirs• Tunisia : - 1,6%/year • Mediterranean areas in MA and DZ : 2 à 3%/year• Mediterranean areas in MA and DZ : - 2 à - 3%/year

Source : Plan Bleu 2005 (diverses sources nationales)


Blue Water: baseline scenario for 2025

Baseline 2025 scenario of Blue Plan (national planning documents)

South & East: strong growthSouth & East: strong growth • water demand : + 58 km3 • reuse, overexploitation and desalinization

N th d d ithd lNorth : reduced withdrawals

MED

S & E

N

Source : Blue Plan from national planning documents; IME/Margat 2012


Blue Water: baseline scenario for 2025ratio of overall water demand vs

total renewable and exploitable water resources2010

S & E

MED

N

2025

N

Consequences :

• Increasing overexploitation South & East

• Low exploitation North 46• a sustainable scenario???


An alternative: managing water demand (WDM) more productivity and income per m3 of water

• Blue Plan scénario: saving 34 km3 possible by 2025 in the South and• Blue Plan scénario: saving 34 km3 possible by 2025 in the South and East (Mediterranean watersheds) by simply reducing losses

Part of irrigated lands with water saving equipment

Still possible room for improvement !

47Source : Blue Plan 2012


Water Demand Management (WDM) : the crucial role of agricultural policies g p

Water demand and value addedfor agricultural production in Tunisia

Tunisiaa combination of tools • Micro-Irrigation: 80%

(20% en 1990)• Efficiency : + 20%

VA irrigated productionVA agricultural productiony

=> Provides more water for cities (social peace) and for tourism (currency)

p

Water withdrawals

MoroccoMicro-irigation (thousand ha)

Source : Hamdane

But WDM is still not a priority in many countries scarce with resources, where pricing is still a taboo.

it is not a panacea (differences between territories)!... it is not a panacea (differences between territories)!


Gains also possible by reducing losses (eau, food) f fi ld f kfrom field to fork

Food losses, food waste MENA, Europe…


An alternative scenario: a new territorial governance g

Local and participatory governance: ASA AUEALocal and participatory governance: ASA, AUEA….

Planning for sustainable agriculture. Combine supply + WDMg g pp y• PRAD Languedoc Roussillon : WDM + Aqua-Domitia + création 50 retenues/an• The Beauce aquifer: WDM by irrigation users associations + volumetric

management with meters + individual quotasmanagement with meters + individual quotas• The Souss Massa aquifer : multi-stakeholder convention, farmer commitments?

supply (transfers, desalination), WDM (efficiency, control ..)B tt bili tiBetter resource mobilization• Storage: groundwater and surface• ReuseReuse • Désalinization : 11 à 14 km3/year in 2025 (eg 3 to 4% of the comprehensive

demand in blue water). Of interest in dry years


3.3 Rainfed: risks of deadlocks and alternativesSystems in danger :Systems in danger :

Droughts

• Syria : about 300 000 farmers affected since 2006 compelled to migrate

M GDP l t 5 i t

E i

• Maroc : GDP losses up to 5 points

Erosion• Turkey : 73%, 57 million ha (hydrical erosion)• Tunisia : 21% lands (3.5 million ha), annual losses : 37.000 ha, of which 13.000 ha

irreversibly(World : 1,1 bilion ha ; yield drops : - 27%)

Dé tifi tiDésertification (arid and dry zones)• PSEM: 80% lands (84% rangelands, 74% rainfed crops)• Syria : 3.2 million ha

Source Plan Bleu 2005 (diverses sources nationales)

• Europe : 63% dry zones (Spain, Southern Italy, Greece ..)(World : 70% lands in dry zones ; 1.5 billion people affected)


An alternative scenario : écological intensification / conservation farming / « terroirs » territorial approachesconservation farming / « terroirs » territorial approaches

Local knwledges :Jessours in Tunisia : valorization

Douar de Tamzejjoute

Agro-forestal Douar in Morocco


« Conservation » agriculture

Direct seeding Wheat

• World : 105 million ha in direct seeding (Brésil : 50%); -3/4 erosion, + 10 mm usable water reserve every 10 years

(semi-arid zone Morocco)

6500 ha in 2013

• France : 1/3 farmland no-tillage

• Yields : + 30 à 40%

• Water efficiency: + 60%

É• Énergy : - 70%

• Carbon sequestration : 1 to 4 tons CO2/hatons CO2/ha

• Organic matter + 3 à 14%

53Source INRA Morocco


« Conservation » agriculture

3 principles :

- Réduction or no tillageg

- Permanent cover

- Crop rotationp

Direct seeding :4,5 tons/ha at Settat (semi-arid zone) ein 2009


Soil structureSoil structure in conventional farming in direct seeding


« terroirs » approach« terroirs » approach agro-écology

Réhabilitation zone Brickcha

Farm at Shoul in 2005 (up) and 2012 (bottom)

Participatory approach

Photos : Zineb Benrhamoune Idrissi


4/ CONCLUSION : ISSUES for the FUTURE

Trends require a paradigm shift / new solutions / Euro-Mediterranean excellenceMediterranean excellence

Would the crisis be an opportunity for progress?

How can we better

1 S / / h t d ( t bl d ) t1. Secure / manage / enhance ecosystems and resources (water blue and green) to produce better and + (food, income, sustainability, equity) and everywhere, and reduce losses ,

2. Secure acces to food (vulnerables households),

3. Optimize use of blue, green and virtual water / Securiser les supplies / Cooperate?

What visions, policies, institutionsWhat « process » from local to national and regional ?What « process » from local to national and regional ?


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