The interplay of knowledge and natural resources:

Ensuring the health, wealth andenvironmental benefits of livestock

Tropentag 2014: Bridging the gap betweenincreasing knowledge and decreasing resources17−19 September 2014 Prague, Czech Republic

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

Key messages-1

• With diminishing natural resources,we’ll have 10 billion people to feedby mid-century, manyof whom will be consumingmore meat, milk and eggs

• Transformation of the livestock systems of developing countries is one of the biggest opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy, environmentally sound and equitable world

Key messages-2

• We can, and should, rely on the creation,diffusion and applicationof our primary ‘natural resource’− scientific knowledge −to transform the futureof livestock production

• We can, and should, ensure that wegrow our food and manage ournatural resources for the benefit of all −and for all generations to come

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Pre-history

Humankind and natural resources before agriculture

Long beforerecorded history,people dependedon natural resources fortheir survival

Humankind and natural resources before agriculture

Before the adventof agriculture,each hunter-gathererneeded about 6.5 sq kmto catch wild animalsand to gather wild foods

Application of knowledge first transforms agriculture: Animals and plants are domesticated

Some 7 to 9thousand years ago, peoplefirst domesticated large herbivores

Humankind and natural resourcesat the dawn of agriculture

Long beforerecorded history,people dependedon animals fortheir survival

Exponential population growth

-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 40000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Global population (millions)

Series 1

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 20000

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4

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10

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14

16

Billion ha land per 1 million population

-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 20000

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Billion ha land per 1 million population

Thousands of ha per person

Less than 2 ha per person −shared with at least 5 animals

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Revolutions

Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the transformative nature of agriculture technologies-1

Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the transformative nature of agriculture technologies-2

Malthus portends famine diseases, but misses the transformative nature of agriculture technologies-3

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 21000

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Billion ha land per 1 million population

US dairy carbon footprint in 2007 is37% of that in 1944 (per bn kg of milk)

The Green Revolutionaverts local ‘Malthusian catastrophes’

Application of knowledge, policy and researchleads to impressive yield gains

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Contrasts

The (supply-led) Green Revolution was not universal

The Livestock Revolutionis demand-led (not supply-led)

By 2050 we’ll need huge amountsof cereals, dairy and meat

1bn tonnes morecereals to 2050

1bn tonnesdairy each year

460m tonnesmeat each year

4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

FAO 2013

% change in global demand for livestock products: 2000–2030

milk beef mutton pork poultry meat

eggs0

20

40

60

80

100

120

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FAO 2011

%

Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities

developed developing SSA SA

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy

% c

hang

e 20

05/0

7 to

205

0

Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

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developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric t

onne

s

FAO 2006

Consumption of livestock productsto 2050

• Globally:An overall increase in per capita daily consumptionof livestock products of 37% compared to 2000

• Commodities differ:– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption

– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption

• Regions differ:– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie

consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC

– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC

Herrero et al. 2014

Knowledge, food and natural resources:Three plausible scenarios

Scenario #1Developing countries meet

livestock demand byimporting products

Scenario #2Developing countries meet

livestock demand byimporting knowledge

Scenario #3Developing countries meet

livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systems

Three plausible scenarios for livestock growth

Knowledge, food and natural resources: Accelerators

The unlimited natural resourceof human will and ingenuity and innovations

Knowledge advances agriculture,while agriculture (the ‘mother of all inventions’)

advances knowledge

Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-1

• Global povertyand inequality cannot be addressed without investment in livestock

• Global foodsecurity and health cannot be addressed without investment in livestock

Global Agenda for Sustainable Livestock-2

• Global environmental issues cannot be addressed without investment in livestock

• Investment in livestock needs to produce more, from less, in ways that benefit all

Key messages-1

• With diminishing natural resources,we’ll have 10 billion people to feedby mid-century, manyof whom will be consumingmore meat, milk and eggs

• Transformation of the livestock systems of developing countries is one of the biggest opportunities we have for a nourished, healthy, environmentally sound and equitable world

Key messages-2

• We can, and should, rely on the creation,diffusion and applicationof our primary ‘natural resource’− scientific knowledge −to transform the futureof livestock production

• We can, and should, ensure that wegrow our food and manage ournatural resources for the benefit of all −and for all generations to come

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