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Transcript of The Inter-National Bio-Defense Consortium Project Kenneth Berry, MD June 2004 Gothenburg, Sweden The...
The Inter-National Bio-Defense Consortium Project
Kenneth Berry, MD
June 2004
Gothenburg, Sweden
The Inter-National Bio-Defense Consortium Project
Kenneth Berry, MD
June 2004
Gothenburg, Sweden
PREEMPT Systems Proprietary © PREEMPT Systems 2003
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
Nunn-Lugar II / Homeland Security Nunn-Lugar II / Homeland Security
Nonpro-liferation.
Nonpro-liferation.
Interdiction Interdiction Domestic PreparednessDomestic Preparedness
____________________*/_________• Why?
• Treaties ( */ = NBC agent
release )
• Acct. Sys.
• Etc. ( _____ = WMD Timeline )
____________________*/_________• Why?
• Treaties ( */ = NBC agent
release )
• Acct. Sys.
• Etc. ( _____ = WMD Timeline )
Since 9/11, the U.S. government has furthered several strategies to counter domestic WMD (weapons of mass destruction) threats – four of which are:
1. The BioShield Program
2. The BioWatch Program
3. The BioSense & other Syndromic Surveillance Projects
4. Protective Engineering of Buildings
Since 9/11, the U.S. government has furthered several strategies to counter domestic WMD (weapons of mass destruction) threats – four of which are:
1. The BioShield Program
2. The BioWatch Program
3. The BioSense & other Syndromic Surveillance Projects
4. Protective Engineering of Buildings
BioShield is a vaccine development, response, prophylaxis, prevention & R&D program headed by the NIH.
BioWatch is a multiple city multiple agency daily air filter sampling program targeting the top biological agents of concern – funded by DHS.
BioShield is a vaccine development, response, prophylaxis, prevention & R&D program headed by the NIH.
BioWatch is a multiple city multiple agency daily air filter sampling program targeting the top biological agents of concern – funded by DHS.
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
BioSense (CDC) is one of several “Syndromic Surveillance” Systems – a local &/or nationwide IT data collection & analysis capability tracking human signs and symptoms for early detection of disease outbreaks involving BW (biological weapons) &/or other diseases of concern. ( see U.S. Patent # 6,710,711 )
BioSense (CDC) is one of several “Syndromic Surveillance” Systems – a local &/or nationwide IT data collection & analysis capability tracking human signs and symptoms for early detection of disease outbreaks involving BW (biological weapons) &/or other diseases of concern. ( see U.S. Patent # 6,710,711 )
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
BIOSENSORS
First phase maturation expected in 2 – 5 years
( see also wwww.darpa. mil/dso/thrust/biosci/biosensor/enabtech.html )
( Portal Shield, a US military WMD sensor array system, is already
operational )
BIOSENSORS
First phase maturation expected in 2 – 5 years
( see also wwww.darpa. mil/dso/thrust/biosci/biosensor/enabtech.html )
( Portal Shield, a US military WMD sensor array system, is already
operational ) © PREEMPT Systems 2002
Bioterrorism Agents:Laboratory Risk
Agent BSL Laboratory RiskB. anthracis 2 lowY. pestis 2 mediumBrucella spp. 2/3 highF. tularensis 2/3 highBotulinum toxin 2 mediumSmallpox 4 highViral Hemorrhagic fever 4 high
© PREEMPT Systems 2004
Domestic PreparednessDomestic Preparedness
_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____
Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post Signs & Symptoms [Bio- ( early / late )
Shield ]/ ? 2005 Pres. – 2003 – 2002 Pres. – 2000 20 th C.
BIOWATCH II
(? +/- NBC Project) BIOWATCH
( sensor-based real-time ) ( DHS ) Syndromic & ( 12-36 hour delay ) Surveillance
WMD Building Systems
Protection Project ( delay of days to weeks )
Anthrax Manageable c. 25K +/- 50K 100K Deaths /
5 Million
Pop.
_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____
Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post Signs & Symptoms [Bio- ( early / late )
Shield ]/ ? 2005 Pres. – 2003 – 2002 Pres. – 2000 20 th C.
BIOWATCH II
(? +/- NBC Project) BIOWATCH
( sensor-based real-time ) ( DHS ) Syndromic & ( 12-36 hour delay ) Surveillance
WMD Building Systems
Protection Project ( delay of days to weeks )
Anthrax Manageable c. 25K +/- 50K 100K Deaths /
5 Million
Pop.
© PREEMPT Systems 2004
Domestic PreparednessDomestic Preparedness
_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____
Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post SSX [Bio- ( early / late )
Shield ]/ ? 2005 Pres. – 2003 – 2002 Pres. – 2000 20 th C.
BIOWATCH II
(? +/- NBC Project) BIOWATCH
( DHS ) Syndromic Surveillance
Systems
Anthrax Manageable c. 25K +/- 50K 100K Deaths /
5 Million
Pop.
_*/______ / _____ / _____ / ___ /____
Pre-Exposure Post-Exposure Pre-Signs & SX Post SSX [Bio- ( early / late )
Shield ]/ ? 2005 Pres. – 2003 – 2002 Pres. – 2000 20 th C.
BIOWATCH II
(? +/- NBC Project) BIOWATCH
( DHS ) Syndromic Surveillance
Systems
Anthrax Manageable c. 25K +/- 50K 100K Deaths /
5 Million
Pop.
The Trend The Trend
Imminent upgrades of BIOWATCH
will thus appropriately include nation-wide real-time integrated WMD & environmental sensor capabilities with coordinated
responsesproviding such “acceptable” &
manageable outcomes
Imminent upgrades of BIOWATCH
will thus appropriately include nation-wide real-time integrated WMD & environmental sensor capabilities with coordinated
responsesproviding such “acceptable” &
manageable outcomes PREEMPT Systems
The question then becomes “What is the best and most efficient way to design and
implement such a system? &
How could such a system eventually qualify as SCIENCESCIENCE?”
The question then becomes “What is the best and most efficient way to design and
implement such a system? &
How could such a system eventually qualify as SCIENCESCIENCE?”
PREEMPT Systems
III. The I-NBC ProjectIII. The I-NBC Project
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
I. WMD Building Projects
( 1* Fixed Sensors Component )
II. GLOBDISS-GBS ( 2* Weather Dep. Mobile Sensors with Advanced M
& S Comp. )
III. The I-NBC Project
( Integrates best Integrates best
aspects of I &aspects of I & II ) II )
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
Goal: to provide real-time
sensor-based wide area WMD
protection for that population
Goal: to provide real-time
sensor-based wide area WMD
protection for that population
Geo-strategic Buildings ComponentGeo-strategic Buildings Component
PREEMPT Systems
Integrated Geo- Strategic Buildings Component:
Nuc / Bio / Chem / Envir.
External – Internal Sensors / Each Building
Integrated Geo- Strategic Buildings Component:
Nuc / Bio / Chem / Envir.
External – Internal Sensors / Each Building
( + = 1 Building with WMD Protection and “nano-capability”)
( + = 1 Building with WMD Protection and “nano-capability”)
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
Given geographic area
The WMD Building Component provides multiple independently tested & verified units (buildings) independently and/or collectively available as scientific controls to assess and verify the Advanced M & S ( & other) system(s). It’s inclusion is thus preferred. It could thus also significantly hasten the development of BIOWATCH.
The WMD Building Component provides multiple independently tested & verified units (buildings) independently and/or collectively available as scientific controls to assess and verify the Advanced M & S ( & other) system(s). It’s inclusion is thus preferred. It could thus also significantly hasten the development of BIOWATCH.
PREEMPT Systems
Also, integrated independent “ WMD &
Envir. sensor field units” can be geo-strategically placed where necessary
or advantageous
(tunnel systems, etc.)
Also, integrated independent “ WMD &
Envir. sensor field units” can be geo-strategically placed where necessary
or advantageous
(tunnel systems, etc.)
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
The M & S Component
The M & S Component
The initial Mod. & Sim. (M & S) function of GLOBDISS involves multiple point & line source NBC agent & concentration dispersion plumes (with resulting human signs & symptoms & the related medical, public health, environmental & other consequence management(CM) needs) - which are stored & analyzed for empirical determination of optimal WMD sensor placement. (Later, this M&S component matures to real-time integration with the real-time WMD sensors distributed in an area thus also providing real-time CM ).
PREEMPT Systems
The initial Mod. & Sim. (M & S) function of GLOBDISS involves multiple point & line source NBC agent & concentration dispersion plumes (with resulting human signs & symptoms & the related medical, public health, environmental & other consequence management(CM) needs) - which are stored & analyzed for empirical determination of optimal WMD sensor placement. (Later, this M&S component matures to real-time integration with the real-time WMD sensors distributed in an area thus also providing real-time CM ).
PREEMPT Systems
PRISM, HPAC &
other modelsother models incorporate:
PRISM, HPAC &
other modelsother models incorporate:
• CBR (NBC) Agents
• Real-time weather
• Terrain data
• Dispersion modeling (physics-based)
• CBR (NBC) Agents
• Real-time weather
• Terrain data
• Dispersion modeling (physics-based)
PREEMPT SystemsPREEMPT Systems
The GLOBDISS Strategy:
“Transversal of All Possibilities” Approach
to Anticipate & Simulate Over 90% of the attack possibilities for a given location(s) in prioritized order (from worst-case to less severe scenarios) - beginning with aerosols of Biological weapons.
The GLOBDISS Strategy:
“Transversal of All Possibilities” Approach
to Anticipate & Simulate Over 90% of the attack possibilities for a given location(s) in prioritized order (from worst-case to less severe scenarios) - beginning with aerosols of Biological weapons.
PREEMPT Systems
PresuppositionsPresuppositions
1. There are a finite number of possibilities of attack for a given target(s).
• Contrary to common wisdom
• Of CRITICAL SIGNIFICANCE !!
2. SSv data must be analyzed and interpreted !
1. There are a finite number of possibilities of attack for a given target(s).
• Contrary to common wisdom
• Of CRITICAL SIGNIFICANCE !!
2. SSv data must be analyzed and interpreted !
PREEMPT Systems
How GLOBDISS OperatesHow GLOBDISS OperatesAir
a] low altitude
b] high altitude
Land
a] Roads (1º, 2º, 3º)
b] Railroads
c] Bridges
d] HazMats
e] Mass gatherings
f] Symbolic entities, etc.
g] Tunnels (not done by GLOBDISS)
Sea
a] Rivers
b] Lakes
c] etc.
Air
a] low altitude
b] high altitude
Land
a] Roads (1º, 2º, 3º)
b] Railroads
c] Bridges
d] HazMats
e] Mass gatherings
f] Symbolic entities, etc.
g] Tunnels (not done by GLOBDISS)
Sea
a] Rivers
b] Lakes
c] etc.PREEMPT Systems
Traversal of All Possibilities Geo-Referencing (& Aerial) Approach to Bio-
Terrorism Defense Methodology
Air, Land, & Sea Approach
PREEMPT SystemsPREEMPT Systems
Actual subsequent configurations & sensor
locations will be determined empirically by analysis of
multiple simulations over one to three years per given
location using “the traversal-of-all-possibilities”
methodology of the Advanced M & S Component.
Actual subsequent configurations & sensor
locations will be determined empirically by analysis of
multiple simulations over one to three years per given
location using “the traversal-of-all-possibilities”
methodology of the Advanced M & S Component.
PREEMPT Systems
WIND
Mobile Sensors
Fixed Base Sensors
PREEMPT SystemsPREEMPT Systems
WIND
Mobile Robotic Sensors
Fixed Base Sensors
PREEMPT SystemsPREEMPT Systems
At a matured phase, the M & S component then functions to interface with real-time data from the external (& int.)sensors providing integrated real-time plume depiction, prediction, & verification - & real-time response & mitigation. This too is testable & verifiable and serves as an advanced redundant scientific control.
At a matured phase, the M & S component then functions to interface with real-time data from the external (& int.)sensors providing integrated real-time plume depiction, prediction, & verification - & real-time response & mitigation. This too is testable & verifiable and serves as an advanced redundant scientific control.
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Such dynamic configurations will prove to be efficient, scientifically validated
&
Will significantly contribute to resolution of the false positives
problem involving sensor systems
Such dynamic configurations will prove to be efficient, scientifically validated
&
Will significantly contribute to resolution of the false positives
problem involving sensor systems
PREEMPT Systems
( Also included in the M & S component is a SSNA tool for improved inclusion of multiple capabilities including insidious and contagious WMD attacks & those not related to PS &/or LS
releases ).
( Also included in the M & S component is a SSNA tool for improved inclusion of multiple capabilities including insidious and contagious WMD attacks & those not related to PS &/or LS
releases ).
PREEMPT Systems
• Nationwide Sensor-based System
• Using combination real-time weather, terrain, dispersion, etc. data with M & S data integrated with fixed base & weather dependent mobile sensor data, etc.
• Nationwide Sensor-based System
• Using combination real-time weather, terrain, dispersion, etc. data with M & S data integrated with fixed base & weather dependent mobile sensor data, etc.
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
III. I - NBC Project SummaryIII. I - NBC Project Summary
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
I-NBC Project Results:I-NBC Project Results:
• Large - area Protection
• Sensor-BasedSensor-Based
• Real-Time / Real-Time / Early Warning
• Post Attack / Pre-Exposure /
• “Manageable” Results
• Large - area Protection
• Sensor-BasedSensor-Based
• Real-Time / Real-Time / Early Warning
• Post Attack / Pre-Exposure /
• “Manageable” Results
© PREEMPT Systems 2002
National Integration of BIOWATCH II
(using NBC Project)
National Integration of BIOWATCH II
(using NBC Project)
I. WMD Building Project(s)
II. GLOBDISS / GBS
III. NBC
C INTERFACING WITH EXISTING EFFORTS :Efforts
2003 – 2004 WMD Building Protection
Strategies (see http://hydra.gsa.gov/pbs
www.cdc.gov/niosh/bldvent/2002
www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2003-136)
© PREEMPT Systems 2003
U.S. Gov Building Risk Classification ( GSA, DoS, Etc.):
I. Small / Very low risk bldgs.
II.
III.
IV.
V. White House, CIA HQ, etc.
U.S. Gov Building Risk Classification ( GSA, DoS, Etc.):
I. Small / Very low risk bldgs.
II.
III.
IV.
V. White House, CIA HQ, etc.PREEMPT Systems
For new federal buildings, current approaches are favoring* cascaded continuous positive-pressure in conjunction with “whole-building” internal and external continuous filtration using both carbon-based(for chem & radiologic.) & HEPA (for bio, etc.) filtration for the higher ranked / threat assessed buildings.
* National Standards are only in early development phase
For new federal buildings, current approaches are favoring* cascaded continuous positive-pressure in conjunction with “whole-building” internal and external continuous filtration using both carbon-based(for chem & radiologic.) & HEPA (for bio, etc.) filtration for the higher ranked / threat assessed buildings.
* National Standards are only in early development phase PREEMPT Systems
The “new buildings” designers see the forthcoming real-time WMD & environmental sensor component as a future “add-on” to present design specifications - thus affording much improved protection (via real-time warning of attack, etc.).
The “new buildings” designers see the forthcoming real-time WMD & environmental sensor component as a future “add-on” to present design specifications - thus affording much improved protection (via real-time warning of attack, etc.).
PREEMPT Systems
For presently existing buildings (most with negative-pressure design), “add-on” RETRO-FITTINGRETRO-FITTING capabilities do exist which provide real-time protection using WMD & environ. sensors with “on-demand” positive-pressure & other protective modalities.
( see U.S. Patent # 6,293,861 )
For presently existing buildings (most with negative-pressure design), “add-on” RETRO-FITTINGRETRO-FITTING capabilities do exist which provide real-time protection using WMD & environ. sensors with “on-demand” positive-pressure & other protective modalities.
( see U.S. Patent # 6,293,861 )
PREEMPT Systems
By carefully geo-strategically choosing and integrating the locations of these WMD sensor-based building protection & related projects, substantial contribution could be made toward large-area WMD protection.
By carefully geo-strategically choosing and integrating the locations of these WMD sensor-based building protection & related projects, substantial contribution could be made toward large-area WMD protection.
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II. Syndromic Surveillance Efforts
© PREEMPT Systems 2003
All the major & accepted Syndromic Surveillance (SSv) systems should be
integrated
All the major & accepted Syndromic Surveillance (SSv) systems should be
integrated
PREEMPT Systems
Advanced Syndromic Surveillance• ESSENCE 2• RODS (Univ. of Pitt. – M Wagner et. al)• Bio-Sense, etc.• (NEDSS – more than a SSv System)
• LEADERS (AKA ENCOMPASS )
• EARS• Etc.
Advanced Syndromic Surveillance• ESSENCE 2• RODS (Univ. of Pitt. – M Wagner et. al)• Bio-Sense, etc.• (NEDSS – more than a SSv System)
• LEADERS (AKA ENCOMPASS )
• EARS• Etc.
PREEMPT Systems
Additional Benefits of the I-NBC Project (Possible)
Additional Benefits of the I-NBC Project (Possible)
1. CBR / WMD National & International Security toward global security.
2. Improved Disease Surveillance toward prevention and mitigation of disease.
3. Enhanced Environmental Toxicogenomics toward a cutting-edge molecular genetic real-time understanding of the process of disease via environmental interactions.
4. Etc.
1. CBR / WMD National & International Security toward global security.
2. Improved Disease Surveillance toward prevention and mitigation of disease.
3. Enhanced Environmental Toxicogenomics toward a cutting-edge molecular genetic real-time understanding of the process of disease via environmental interactions.
4. Etc. PREEMPT Systems
The Future ( Phase II )
• Anti-aerosol “bombs”
• Defensive ground (possible) & space-based (? perhaps) remote-sensing capabilities [Dx & Rx]
• Fine-tuned public response capabilities (if needed)
• Real-time integrated LS&F Gov, medical, Public Health, LE, etc. responses
• Etc.
The Future ( Phase II )
• Anti-aerosol “bombs”
• Defensive ground (possible) & space-based (? perhaps) remote-sensing capabilities [Dx & Rx]
• Fine-tuned public response capabilities (if needed)
• Real-time integrated LS&F Gov, medical, Public Health, LE, etc. responses
• Etc. © PREEMPT Systems 2002
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
PREEMPT Systems
By embedding these capabilities with their intrinsic scientific controls (the WMD Building
Projects with / & the Advanced M & S Component), BIOWATCH
could soon evolve into a distinctly scientific capability.
K Berry, MD
By embedding these capabilities with their intrinsic scientific controls (the WMD Building
Projects with / & the Advanced M & S Component), BIOWATCH
could soon evolve into a distinctly scientific capability.
K Berry, MD
PREEMPT Systems Proprietary © PREEMPT Systems 2003
As multiple cities & regions are protected,
national & international systems can be developed via
comprehensive integration strategies
As multiple cities & regions are protected,
national & international systems can be developed via
comprehensive integration strategies
PREEMPT Systems
www.preempt.net
www.preempt.net
PREEMPT Systems