THE INTEGRAL

ASSESSMENT OF

BIOTERRORISM THREAT

Episode II. OBJECTIVES, METHOD, TASKS

Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics

National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Konstantyn Atoyev

New Testment

St Luka 10:19

«Behold, I give unto you power to tread on serpents and scorpions, and over all the power of the enemy; and nothing shall by any means hurt you.»

OBJECTIVES

The Tragedy in

the USA has

illuminated

Two Problems:

The problem of early recognition of risks and identification and ran-king of critical factors, which deter-

mine rare events realisation.

The problem of minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on civilian

population.

The therrorist attack and mass outbreak

of anthrax spreading through the letters

have shown that even the events with

negligible value of risk can indeed occur.

Moreover even if the realization of rare

events causes by oneself local hazard, its

combination with media hypes leads to a

strong multiple effect.

September, 11 Chernobyl, 1986

Even the events with negligible value of risk can indeed occur

Problems Early risk recognition

Identification and ranking of critical factors, determining rare events realisation

Minimizing the effects of

terrorist acts on civilian population

Rare Events

It can cause essential damage such as

public fear, undermining of public trust

to regulators up to collapse of

economics, depending on its state.

So now we have the principle new

threats for society connected with rare

event realization.

In this case the task of early

recognition of risks and

identification and ranking of critical

factors, which determine rare events,

took one of the central place in

modern risk analysis.

One of the most distinctive features in

the study of such events is difficulty in

choice of adequate mathematical appa-

ratus for their investigation.

Indeed, the traditional methods or

risk estimation were elaborated on

the basis of theory of probability.

For instance the risk of some

disease is determined as ratio of

total amount of patients with this

diseases to total population.

CATASTROPHES’s THEORY STATISTICS

Mathematical Methods

RISK ASSESSMENT

ProbabilityApproximation to the bifur-cation values of parameters

RESTRICTIONS

Sample’s completeness

Unique character of event

UNITS

However, the theory of probability can-not be correctly utilized for risk assess-ment in some cases, especially with the absence or incompleteness of data due to unique character of event.

The bioterrorism as phenomena is con-

nected not only with bio-medical and

epidemiological threats, but also deter-

mined by complex ecological, econo-

mical, mental and social peculiarities of

concrete country and time.

METHOD

Each bioterrorist act and all problems

associated with its consequences have

individual features.

Bio-medicalEpidemiologicalEconomicalSocialMental

That is why it is not correctly to

utilize for risk assessment of

bioterrorist act in one country the

statistical data received under other

conditions in various countries.

In this case widespread gets under-

standing that the unique and single

character of so sophisticated subject

as bioterrotist attack and its

consequences does not allow in some

cases to use correctly the theory of

probability for risk assessment.

There is another approach to risk

assessment, which may prove to be

more useful here. It allows not only risk

estimation, but also description of the

quantitative characteristic of reserve

possibilities of the system and its

components [10-14].

Risk estimation is carried out using the

theory of smooth functions [15] allowing

the determination of critical parameter values which describe the levels of control system intensities and reserve possibilities. The risk is estimated on a degree of the system parameter approximation of the bifurcation values, which characterize the system’s transition from one steady state

(norm), to another (catastrophe).

APPLICATIONS

FORECASTING

CONTROL

OPTIMIZATIONANALYSIS

MICRO-BIOLOGY

ECONO MICS

SOCIAL POLITICS

BIOTER-RORISM

EPIDEMI-OLOGY

HEALTH CARE

ECOSYSTEMS

DECIGN MAKING

DANGEROUS OBJECTS

This approach was utili-zed for following tasks:

TASKS:

FIELDS

RISK ASSES-SMENT

Norm

The threat of bioterrorsm

The shit of high risk

The shit of middle risk

Economical index

Bio-medical index

The state of society is examined as

complex interrelations in “hexagon of

security”, which is determined by

following factors:

epidemiological, social,

medico-biological, ecological,

mental, economical

Economical threats

Ecological threats

Social threats

Mental threats

Epidemiological threats

Medico-biolo-gical threats

All arsenal of threats, including

bioterrorism, have the potential to

upset intricate balance that exist

within the “hexagon of security” by

either altering the environment,

economics social and epidemiological

situation or upsetting mental and

medico-biological spheres.

The disbalance within the hexagon of

security is the most formidable threat,

that we all must do our best to prevent,

as it leads to transition from one

system’s steady state (norm), to another

(crisis or catastrophe). The dynamics of

these system parameters is determined

with the help of dynamic modeling.

The main advantage of this approach is

the determination of risk dynamics as the

function of dynamic variables of the

investigated system.

It also allows to identify the weakest link

of system and the areas that need

improvement [10-14].

1. Information characterizing interre-lations in “hexagon of security” is inputted from Data Bases.

ALGORITHM OF RISK ASSESSMENT

2. The indices characterizing these interrelations are estimated by means

of developed mathematical models

with the help of inputted data.

4. Restoration possibilities of each of considered systems are estimated by remoteness of parameter characterizing appropriate index from its bifurcation value.

3. The bifurcation values of the para-meters, characterizing the balance dis-turbanses in the “hexagon of security” are calculated.

MAIN TASKS

The computer technology for assessment of bioterrorism threat and minimization the effects of terrorist acts on civilian populations, including the risk of various epidemic spreading. should allow to solve the following tasks:

Investigation of bioterrorist threat

dynamics on the basis of risk

assessment of bioterrorist attack

and forecasting of the terrorist act

consequences depending on

interrelations “hexagon of security”

TASK 1.

Determination of impacts, minimizing

the effects of terrorist acts on civilian

population, specifically the optimal

means redistribution to increase the

efficacy of bioterrorist acts prevention

and elaboration the recommendations

for their consequence liquidation.

TASK 2.

The ranking of different world

regions on the degree of

bioterrorist threat and damage after

potential bioterrorist attacks.

TASK 3.

MAIN ADVANTAGE The main advantage of this approach is the determination of bioterrorist attack risk dynamics as the function of dynamic variables, characterizing the interrelations in the “hexagon of security” (social, economical, political, ecological, epidemiological and biomedical).

1. Identification of the weakest link

under various scenarios of

bioterrorist attacks and means

redistribution for help to national

services responsible for bioterrorist

attacks prevention and liquidation of

their consequences.

It allows to solve the

following tasks:

2. Identification of the weakest link

and area of needed improvement and

ranking countries on their weakness

and vulnerability to possible

bioterrorist attack and evaluation of

capability to respond effectively to

the threat of bioterrorism and to deal

with consequences of terrorist attack.

3. Investigation of bioterrorist

threat dynamics on the basis of

risk assessment of bioterrorist

attack and forecasting of the

terrorist act consequences

depending on economical, social

and ecological situation.

4. Determination of effective

impacts (controls), minimizing the

effects of terrorist acts on civilian

populations.

This lecture is based on10. Atoyev K. Risk Assessment in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development // Asses-sment and management of environmental risks: methods and applications in eastern European and developing countries-,Kluwer, 2001, pp. 195-20211. Atoyev K., Rykhtovsky V. Computer technology for health risk estimation and mana-gement // “Foresight and Precaution” ESREL 2000 and SRAEurope ANNUAL CONFERENCE (Edinburg 2000), Belcema Publishers, 2000, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 109-115

12 .Atoyev K. Risk Assessment in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development // Asses-sment and management of environmental risks: methods and applications in eastern European and developing countries-,Kluwer, 2001, pp. 195-202 13. Аtoyev K. , Slesarev Yu. Epidemiological Risk Management in Ukraine: New Approaches and Strategy of Development// Proc. SRA-2001 Annual Meeting , “Risk Analysis in an Interconnected World” Seattle, WA

14. Atoyev K. New Approaches to Epidemiological Risk Assessment Management // Supercourse: Epidemiology, the Internet and Global Health.- Pittsburgh: Disease Monitoring and Telecommunication WHO Collaborating Center, 2002. 15. Guastello, S.J. (1988) The organizational security subsystem: some potentially catastrophic events, Behavioral Science 33, 48-58.