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ISSUE

ISSUE 171

WEDNESDAY 14 MAY 2014

InsiderBet.co.uk

TWe’ve had an eventful lead up to the 2014 French Open and we still have a couple of weeks left to go until the opening Sunday’s play (25th May) – a Sunday that might not feature a few key players with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams struggling with injuries on the lead up to the year’s second Grand slam.

As is the case with both players, they have certainly timed their injuries well, with both players having more than enough time to recover for the big one.

But whilst Djokovic is a picture of physical greatness and at the prime of his career, poor old Serena is on the slippery slope downwards and as we have seenover the past few years, the American certainly doesn’t cope well with injuries, with a succession of losses in key events when suffering from, or just sustaining, an injury.

There are times when an injury flag should put you off having a bet (I’ve discussed the significance of the Serena situation in the women’s preview in this issue) but as far as the Serbian is concerned, I’m not going to overreact to a situation that Nole has comfortably in hand…

TENNIS SPECIAL!FRENCH OPEN AND WIMBLEDON...

INSIDE THIS ISSUE...

FRENCH OPEN 2014Outright Winner - Mens

SEE PAGES 1 & 2

FRENCH OPEN 2014Outright Winner - Womens

SEE PAGE 3

FRENCH OPEN 20145 men to watch

SEE PAGE 4

FRENCH OPEN 20145 women to watch

SEE PAGE 5

FRENCH OPEN 2014Speciality Bets

SEE PAGE 6

WIMBLEDON 2014Looking Ahead

SEE PAGE 7

THE BACKPAGEAll the bets in this issue – at-a-glance.

SEE PAGE 8

THE

FOLLOW ALL YOUR BETS AT INSIDERBET.CO.UK

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The Insider.indd 1 12/05/2014 15:57:22

InsiderBet.co.uk

FRENCH OPEN MEN’S – OUTRIGHT WINNERNOVAK WILL BE READY...

The injury to Novak Djokovic’s right arm was not deemed bad enough to cause him to pull out of the Monte Carlo tournament,

indeed he played his semi final against Roger Federer just a few hours after sustaining the injury in practice.

He went on to lose that match, and has since pulled out of all of his engagements since – but I’m sure missing the Madrid 1000 event is not going to cause him to lose any sleep.

Like most of the big guns, a tennis season is all about the slams with most of the other events serving as prep events for the big ones…

The Rome Masters is the key event for Djokovic and given the amount of tennis he has played so far this year (including winning the almost elusive Miami – Indian Wells double) I cannot foresee the Serbian having too many problems getting back into his highest gears for the big one. It’s never easy to find your timing when coming back off an enforced break, but Djokovic is a player that takes regular time off in chunks so this won’t be an issue for him.

Looking a little closer at the men’s draw and despite the injury concerns over Novak Djokovic, it’s still hard to ignore him at the price – in fact the ‘injury’ might well be a blessing as it has inflated the price for us – to around double the previous level in places.

It’s quite clear he has the game to win the French – he was unfortunate last year and in 2012 he had plenty of personal problems to contend with. In fact, it’s fair to say that Nole hasn’t really had a year in Paris where everything has fallen right for him, and he’s certainly due some rub of the green in 2014.

I cannot back Nadal at the current levels – he has not been at his best this season (especially in the length department) and at just Evens, he’s easy to overlook. I am relishing the chance to back Djokovic

to get his revenge over Nadal in Paris this year but there’s a decent chance that match might not even take place if Nadal continues to leave the ball short.

If I’m right about Djokovic finding his ‘A Game’ in the French then I would say there are only a few players that could beat him over 5 sets – Stan Wawrinka is one, but the Swiss is nowhere near the level he was at in Melbourne. David Ferrer would have to play the match of his life to beat Djokovic and even then Nole would still be the fav… and Fed would need to get it done quickly and that in itself is a big price

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...It’s Djokovic for me, his early breeding on the clay courts of Serbia makes him a genuine dirt balling great, and thanks to his recent ‘injury’ we can feed on a much bigger price than we would normally be offered up at this stage of the season

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ISSUE 171 // Wednesday 14 May 2014

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FRENCH OPEN 2014

OUTRIGHT WINNER - MENS25th May – 8th June 2014

Novak Djokovic to Win

£10.00

Price: 3/1 (Minimum 5/2)

3/1 AT 11/4 AT 5/2 AT

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FRENCH OPEN WOMEN’S – OUTRIGHT WINNERThis year we have four serious contenders for the women’s French title...

Top of the list is Serena Williams (2/1), a long established veteran of this tournament and last year’s Champion. Serena blew all records out

of the water last year, winning Charleston, Madrid, Rome and of course Paris. As if that were not enough, Williams continued on, finishing the season with a win in the Sony Swedish Open.

This year though looks like a very different story….

In Charleston Serena only made it to the second round and she retired from Madrid with an injured thigh. She still intends to play Rome and is heading for the French, but her preparation is poor compared to 2013, and at 32 years old it may be a question of whether she can remain physically fit through Rome and to the end of what will certainly be a gruelling Paris fortnight.

Two more serious contenders, according to the bookmakers at least, are Na Li and Simona Halep.

Simona Halep (10/1) while a relatively newbie to the top of the tree has been showing the world that she is a force to be reckoned with. On hard court she reached the quarter final stage of the Australian Open and more recently the semis of Indian wells. The Romanian has shown her clay court prowess in Madrid, dismissing Ana Ivanovic in two straight sets to reach the final. Though I believe this youngster has got what it takes to win Grand Slams I don’t think this is her time and ultimately her inexperience will decide her fate.

Na Li (5/1) has been at her enigmatic best of late. The lady from China is an extraordinary tennis player and at the top of her game, but when she starts to blow cold, losing to just about anyone really is possible.

In 2011 she won her maiden Grand Slam title Paris… In 2012 she was destroyed by Shvedova… and most recently of all, in 2013, she went on to lose to Mattek-Sands in the second round – a crazy form line…

This year Na Li has only played one event on clay… in Madrid where she lost to Sharapova in the quarter finals, but she will play Rome and that’s exactly the preparation she had back in 2011 when she won the whole thing.

Na Li is a complicated player to analyse – you really have to wait until game day to make a decision and for that reason all bets are off – for the time being anyway… but she could well make the list a littler nearer the time.

That leaves the bookmakers’ second favourite, and my pick for the title; Maria Sharapova…

WHERE MY MONEY’S GOING...

MARIA SHARAPOVA @ 5/1 Champion of 2012 and last year’s runner-up, I believe Maria Sharapova has got what it takes to make it all the way to the top of the tree in 2014. Last year, on the run-up to Roland Garros, Maria won Stuttgart, was beaten in the final of Madrid by Serena and made it to the quarter finals of Rome.

Serena took her title from her in the final in Paris with the Russian’s first serve percentage falling to a desperately low of 55% - and to make matters worse, she was taking some speed off in an effort to stop double faulting.

When she won the championship in 2012 the stats showed her first serve percentage of 60% and since her current Madrid stats are showing 63% she is certainly going into Paris with some ‘serving confidence’ under her belt.

Maria’s greatest opponent is, of course, Serena Williams, but as I mentioned earlier, the American is not running her best race and I believe Maria can

reclaim her title in 2014

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FRENCH OPEN 2014 // OUTRIGHT WINNER

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OUTRIGHT WINNER - WOMENS25th May – 8th June 2014

Maria Sharapova to Win

£10.00

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ISSUE 171 // Wednesday 14 May 2014

[ 4 ]

A real mixed bag of talent and hopefully the first round will bring up a few match ups that will give us chance to take on the bookies with a sharp handicap bet – or even better a correct set score wager at an aggressive price.

FRENCH OPEN MEN’SFIVE PLAYERS TO FOLLOWThis year’s French Open promises to be a superb feast of clay court tennis and I’ve got fi ve players who I’ll be looking to side with at some time during the fortnight. It’s a real mixed bag – with a few predictable entries and a few not so predictable… Let’s kick off with the ladies’ favourite, Fabio Fognini…

FABIO FOGNINI Clay Ranking 5 Overall Position 15

This Prize Italian has had a tremendous start to the season. In February alone the 25 year old Fognini got to the final of Buenos Aires and won the Royal Guard open in Chile. He got to the third round of Monte Carlo in April before putting in a stellar performance in the Davis Cup where he beat Andy Murray in three straight sets. Fabio reached his third final this year getting beaten in three sets to qualifier Martin Klizan in Munich.

TEIMURAZI GABASHVILLI Clay Ranking 53 Overall Position 84

At the ripe old age of 29 this Russian seems to have started to play some real tennis. Gabashvilli failed to qualify for the French last year, and spent the better part of 2013 playing lower-tier Challenger events – but 2014 has been a different story, with the Georgian taking the scalps of Volandri, Simon, Granollers and even Ferrer. Consistency is an issue clearly, but this boy seems to be having a go at the zero to 100 in record breaking time. I wouldn’t write him off.

PABLO ANDUJAR Clay Ranking 19 Overall Position 36

Andujar sprinted into the French last year attacking it as if it were his tenth tournament in three months – because it was! Match-play is one thing – country hopping is another – and I think that’s what went wrong. Car crash in the first round against Youzhny. This year, Andujar’s approach is a lot more structured, it feels less rushed. He reached the quarter final in Buenos Aires and the semis in Rio before crashing in to fellow Spaniard, Nadal – who only secured the match in a third set breaker. I’m sure Pablo has more to offer that we’ve seen so far – a definite one to watch.

ROBERTO BAUTISTA-AGUT Clay Ranking 27 Overall Position 45

Bautista-Agut has already had a stellar slam performance this year with a superb run through the Australian Open and he has the tools to come up with another big series in Paris. The Spaniard is certainly not one to trust as a short price fav, but he is a lively dog and could come up with the goods for his backers.

NICOLAS ALMAGRO Clay Ranking 7 Overall Position 24

One more aggressive Spaniard to keep your eye on. Another successful run into the Open this year reaching three semis and the final of Houston – where Verdasco beat him in a tie-breaker. Another die-hard Spaniard – a poor man’s Ferrer if you like. Be warned though, a mysterious foot injury overtook him in Monte Carlo where he gave Wawrinka a walkover. He played Barcelona six days later. I think he will go deep – he certainly has the capability.

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FRENCH OPEN 2014 // TEN TO FOLLOW

[ 5 ]

From a betting perspective I’m looking forward to the women’s event more than the men’s at the moment – there will be the usual helping of surprises and I’m hoping my five to follow are at the centre of the shocks…

FRENCH OPEN WOMEN’SFIVE PLAYERS TO FOLLOWAs seen at the Australian Open earlier this year, the women’s game can be unpredictable and we have all witnessed the upsets that can happen. This makes for an entertaining tournament and some very interesting betting opportunities. Let’s have a look at those players I think may have some surprises up their sleeves.

ANDREA PETKOVIC Clay Ranking 46 Overall Position 29

This Fraulien has had the dream start to her clay season. Petkovic claimed the Charleston title after defeating opponents Tsurenko, Lisicki, Safarova, Bouchard and Cepelov and with a confidence boost like this so close to the French, there is no doubt she will do well. Injuries have ruined the past couple of years for ‘Petko’ but if she can keep her second serve competitive, the German will have a big first week.

EUGENIE BOUCHARD Clay Ranking 41 Overall Position 8

This fan favourite blew us away when she reached the semis of her first ever grand slam at the Aussie Open earlier this year. Bouchard then continued to impress reaching the semis in Charleston and the quarters in the Portugal Open proving she can play on clay just as well. Her fresh faced girl-next-door looks secures the crowds favour, and when you can play tennis like this Canadian, you have a stellar combination.

SARA ERRANI Clay Ranking 3 Overall Position 11

Looking to improve on last year’s semi final appearance at the French, when she lost in two straight sets to the eventual winner – Serena Williams – this Italian has had a great start to the clay season. So far Errani has made the quarter finals in Charleston and the semis of Stuttgart. If her run-up to the tournament is anything to go by she can go close to matching her success of 2013.

ANA IVANOVIC Clay Ranking 10 Overall Position 11

After a convincing win over Serena Williams at the Australian Open earlier this year, Ivanovic seems to be in top form for the French Open. Hard courts aside, Ana is also doing well on clay, reaching the final of Stuttgart and the quarters in Madrid. This Serb is definitely one to look out, we can certainly expect some great tennis from her, although the one caveat is her ability to play in the wind – and as a past winner, she could end up with a date on the Chatrier court which is more than just a bit exposed to the elements.

JELENA JANKOVIC Clay Ranking 5 Overall Position 7

This Serbian is more than ready for the French with lots of preparation under her belt. Jankovic will be looking to improve from the quarter finals last year, where she took Sharapova to three. So far, this clay season has been a success for her – getting to the final of Bogota and reaching the semis in Stuttgart. A great entertainer with technically speaking one of the best forehands in women’s tennis – the Serbian is certainly capable of an upset or two.

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InsiderBet.co.uk

ISSUE 171 // Wednesday 14 May 2014

[ 6 ]

FRENCH OPEN 2014 // SPECIALITY BETS

FRENCH 2014 – ‘WITHOUT DJOKOVIC OR NADAL’Who doesn’t love Roger Federer, forever in our memories in some of the best matches ever played – he will go down in history. Some say he’s had his day, others believe there is life in the old dog yet.

Roger has played over 250 matches in Grand Slams so clearly experience is not a factor. He has appeared in 24 Men’s Grand Slam finals and won 17 of them so he’s not likely to get a dose of the wobbles now!

Historically 75% of his defeats in the Roland Garros have been to Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic – so this ‘without the big two’ bet makes perfect mathematical sense.

Whatever your opinion of King Roger we would be missing a great betting opportunity if we did not consider him for the following market. Yes he is past his best, but given the way the draw is likely to pan out, a dead heat would not be the biggest shock in the world and at this price level, I’m ok with that

SERENA WILLIAMS – ‘2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS’We’ve already discounted Serena for the outright winner market for the French, but can we discount her for two remaining Grand Slams of the year, I think not. Serena is a Grand Slam champion with years of experience and a daunting track record for any opponent to face.

Her reputation goes before her and at 32 years of age she still has the tools to bring home a Slam title. I doubt her for the French with its close proximity to her thigh injury; however it would be a huge mistake to presume she’s done for the year.

Heading towards the twilight of her career she will be clutching with both hands for more success. A champion at both Wimbledon and the U.S Open Serena will most likely take one of these titles in 2014.

I’ve simulated her ‘Slam Status’ using her market price to 100% for each of the remaining tournaments and she comes out at just over 5/4 – and together with her strength, resilience and the focus that only a ‘Williams sister’ can have, a small wager is called for

NOVAK DJOKOVIC – ‘2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS’

Novak Djokovic is in line to win the French Open this year – we know that – but what’s the chance he wins one other slam?

He has won both Wimbledon and the U.S Open and is a regular attendee at the finals of both tournaments. His ability and outstanding performance are not dictated to by the surface he plays on and hence he excels on both grass and hard court.

I think he may very well take out the title at Wimbledon or the U.S open in 2014, and at 7/2 to do so – along with the French – we have found a decent bet

SPECIALITY BETS...

FRENCH OPEN 2014 2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS

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Roger Federer

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Serena WilliamsOne Slam Only

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NOVAK DJOKOVIC - ‘2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS’

Ends Sept 2014

MEN’S WINNER - ‘WITHOUT DJOKOVIC OR NADAL’

25th May – 8th June

SERENA WILLIAMS ‘2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS’

Ends Sept 2014

The Insider.indd 6 12/05/2014 15:57:40

WIMBLEDON 2014 // LOOKING AHEAD

[ 7 ]

JERZY JANOWICZ @ 99/1WAt 23 years old Janowicz is one of the most exciting players to hit the grass court scene for a long while. Reaching the third round of Wimbledon the first year he qualified in 2012, he quickly made ground. Jerzy made the semi final stage of Wimbledon last year before being knocked out by an on-fire Andy Murray who went on to take the title.

On his path to the semis, Jerzy defeated Kubot, Stepanek, Almagro and Melzer – not bad for his second appearance down at SW19.

He showed that he can last 5 sets in his match against Melzer which is always a prerequisitefor any future Grand Slam Champ. Jerzy is a high-risk player and has a game which reminds me of a young Marat Safin – lots of Aces, lots of unforced errors, and a big serve.

I think Jerzy will go deep and maybe a little further than last year. I can’t wait to see this guy in action and at around 100/1 in places it has to be great value

EUGENIE BOUCHARD @ 33/1This 20 year old Bouchard has steamed ahead with her tennis career over the past 20 months. Since winning the Wimbledon Juniors in 2012 she made it into the women’s main draw last year where she lost to Carla Suarez Navarro in the third round. Eugenie had a great debut at Wimbledon, notably dismissing Ana Ivanovic in the second round in straight sets.

Bouchard was flying under the radar until this year’s Australian Open where her game soared to a new level and she found herself facing Na Lin in her first Grand Slam semi final.

Though defeated by the prowess of the Chinese veteran, the Canadian showed she could handle to pressure of a high-stakes match and her temperament throughout was admirable.

The Australian crowd loved her and so will the Londoners in June. Bouchard is in great form reaching the semis of Charleston and the quarter finals of Portugal. I think this newcomer has the energy, temperament and skill to go deep in the tournament and at this price an each-way investment is a shrewd move

PETRA KVITOVA @ 16/1Petra Kvitova took the world by storm when she smashed her way to the 2011 Wimbledon title – but she hasn’t hit anywhere near that kind of form since, despite a few subtle hints at hotting a hot streak.

But that’s what you get with the Czech – it’s either hot or cold, with little in-between.

The one factor that makes me think that she is on the verge of a hot streak again was her performances against Safarova in Sydney, Ivanovic in Miami and her double Fed Cup win against Italy in April.

I’m cherry picking those performances out of the season because that’s the kind of form that wins slam events – she is a relentlessly aggressive player and if she can put seven wins together, she will drill very deep into the Wimbledon draw

LOOKING AHEAD... WIMBLEDON

WIMBLEDON 2014

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Petra Kvitova to win

£1.00

16/1 (Minimum 12/1)

16/1 AT 14/1 AT

Jerzy Janowicz to win

£1.00

99/1 (Minimum 40/1)

99/1 AT 40/1 AT

Eugenie Bouchard to win

£1.00 - Each Way*

33/1 (Minimum 33/1)

33/1 AT

WOMEN’S OUTRIGHT WINNER

23rd June – 6th July

MEN’S OUTRIGHT WINNER

23rd June – 6th July

WOMEN’S OUTRIGHT WINNER

23rd June – 6th July

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The Insider.indd 7 12/05/2014 15:57:40

ISSUE 171 // Wednesday 14 May 2014 BET SUMMARIES

©Copyright 2014 Oxfordshire Press Ltd. Managing Editors: Oliver Upstone, Shaun Humphris.

Subscription and editorial queries can be made to the Insider Helpdesk on 01926 298 986 (we may monitor calls to maintain and improve our service), or email us on info@oxonpress.co.uk Registered address: Oxfordshire Press Ltd, The Malthouse, William Street, Leamington Spa, CV32 4HJ. Registered in England No. 531 9086 VAT No. GB 854 6478 85. ISSN 1476-0541.

Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of all editorial material, however we disclaim all liability for any errors or omissions found in this publication. Oxfordshire Press in no way encourages reckless gambling and it is recommended that readers who engage in gambling do so responsibly and set financial limits. Anyone concerned about problem gambling can contact GamCare on 0845 6000 133 or gamcare.org.uk for further information.

THE BACKPAGEHere is a summary of your Insider bets this month. Eight tips in total – covering the 2014 French Open and Wimbledon tennis championships...

In your next issue of The Insider magazine I’ll be turning my attention to the World Cup in Brazil... The issue will be with you by on Wednesday 11th June.

Mr X.

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16/1 AT 14/1 AT

Jerzy Janowicz to win

£1.00

99/1 (Minimum 40/1)

99/1 AT 40/1 AT

Eugenie Bouchard to win

£1.00 - Each Way*

33/1 (Minimum 33/1)

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WIMBLEDON WOMEN’S OUTRIGHT WINNER

23rd June – 6th July

WIMBLEDON MEN’S OUTRIGHT WINNER

23rd June – 6th July

WIMBLEDON WOMEN’S OUTRIGHT WINNER

23rd June – 6th July

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Novak Djokovic To Win 2 Slams

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Roger Federer

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7/1 (Minimum 6/1)

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Serena WilliamsOne Slam Only

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NOVAK DJOKOVIC - ‘2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS’

Ends Sept 2014

FRENCH OPEN MEN’S WINNER‘WITHOUT DJOKOVIC OR NADAL’

25th May – 8th June

SERENA WILLIAMS ‘2014 TOTAL GRAND SLAM WINS’

Ends Sept 2014

A WORD ABOUT YOUR STAKING ADVICE...All my tips have a recommended stake in ‘£’s not ‘Points’ – using a scale of £1 - £100 (£1 minimum bet to £100 maximum bet). Most bets will be around the £5 - £20 mark, with larger stakes reserved for what I consider outstanding opportunities. Of course, you are free to apply your own staking plan to suit your pocket – but this will provide a guide and also the marker for published results.

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OUTRIGHT WINNER - MENS25th May – 8th June 2014

FRENCH OPEN 2014

OUTRIGHT WINNER - WOMENS25th May – 8th June 2014

Novak Djokovic to Win

£10.00

Price: 3/1 (Minimum 5/2)

3/1 AT 11/4 AT 5/2 AT

Maria Sharapova to Win

£10.00

5/1 (Minimum 5/1)

5/1 AT

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