The Indonesian – German Contribution to the Indian Ocean ... · Warning Dept. for Com And Info...

© Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006© Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006

The Indonesian The Indonesian –– German German Contribution to the Indian Contribution to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning Ocean Tsunami Warning

SystemSystem

Jan Jan SopaheluwakanSopaheluwakanIndonesian Institute of SciencesIndonesian Institute of Sciences

JoernJoern LauterjungLauterjungGeoForschungsZentrumGeoForschungsZentrum, Germany, Germany

Third International Conference on Early WarningThird International Conference on Early WarningBonn, 27 Bonn, 27 –– 29 March 200629 March 2006

28 March, 200528 March, 2005 EWC III, 2006EWC III, 2006 22




Tsunami prone coasts

2004

2004

1994

1992

1996

1998

2000

Tsunami prone coasts in Indonesia and destructive Tsunami prone coasts in Indonesia and destructive earthquake and tsunami during the last decadeearthquake and tsunami during the last decade

••Distance to the closest shore: 10 Distance to the closest shore: 10 –– 200 km200 km••Tsunami lead time: 5 Tsunami lead time: 5 –– 40 minutes40 minutes••Seismic wave propagation: 3 Seismic wave propagation: 3 –– 30 seconds30 seconds••Early warning system in 5 minutes ?!Early warning system in 5 minutes ?!



Rupture Rupture propagation of propagation of Dec. 26, 2004Dec. 26, 2004

Ishii et al., 2005Nature



The 2004 Aceh Tsunami andvertical displacement of seafloor

Tsunami animation (Tsunami Research Group

Marine Research Center, BandungInstitute of Technol.)

Hirata et al. [2005] from satellite altimetry data.



(Subarya et. al, Nature, 2006)

The 12/26/2004 co-seismicslip distribution shows a very sharp edge under Simeulue. Aftershocks abutting the high-slip gradient under northern Simeulue. The high slip region is 12-20km deep.

At about 6°N as the slip vectors there shows a 15 degrees change in the convergence direction (grey arrow).

It shows that the change in direction at 6°N, which also shows us in the GPS co-seismic slip.

The elastic strain released was partitioned prior to the rupture, and the mainshocks slip vector probably rotated as slip progressed northward.

The 3/28/2005 quakeapproach to rupture 30-40km depths. It’s supposed could overlap the 12/26/2004 region along strike.



Survey mode GPS coseismicdisplacements –December 26 earthquake andMarch 28, 2005earthquake

[email protected]


Sesar Sumatra

Kep. Mentawai

Gempa dangkal berasosiasi dengan Sesar SumatraGempa dalam berasosiasi dengan zona subduksi

100 km

200 km

Kerak Kontinen

Astenosfera

LitosferaSamudera

D. Ranau Liwa Sesar Sumatra

Episenter gempa

Hiposentergempa

1a

1b

2a

2b

A B

A

B

Geotech



Coral reefs growth and the earthquake Coral reefs growth and the earthquake induced sea bottom movementinduced sea bottom movement



Earthquake epicenters of Sumatra (Earthquake epicenters of Sumatra (NatawidjajaNatawidjaja, 2002), 2002)

Earthquake +Tsunami:1381 (coral reef), 1608 (coral reef)Earthquake +Tsunami:1381 (coral reef), 1608 (coral reef)1833 (coral reef &book), 1833 (coral reef &book), 20042004Interval 200Interval 200--220 years (220 years (NatawidjajaNatawidjaja, 2000, LIPI , 2000, LIPI –– Caltech)Caltech)

20042004

20042004

18331833

19351935

18831883

Bathymetry around Sumatera

5,2 cm/year

Cyclic recurrent of Mentawai earthquakes

around 200 years 6 cm/year

18611861


The INA TWSThe INA TWS



Satellite in Satellite in Pacific systemPacific system

Bottom pressure Bottom pressure gaugegauge

OBSOBS

BuoyBuoy

Regional/NationalRegional/NationalCenterCenter

Coastal stationCoastal station


HAAHAA

Indian Ocean PlateIndian Ocean Plate

Satellite in Satellite in Indian OceanIndian Ocean

GTS or GTS or ACeSACeS

SeismographSeismograph

Tide gageTide gage

GPSGPS



OBSOBS

BuoyBuoy

National/Regional National/Regional CenterCenter

High altitude airshipHigh altitude airship

Satellite in Satellite in Pacific systemPacific system

Indian Ocean PlateIndian Ocean Plate

Satellite in Satellite in Indian OceanIndian Ocean

Satellite in Satellite in ASEANASEAN

SeismographSeismograph

Tide gageTide gage

BPGBPG

NorthNorthSouthSouth




Earthquake Information-Time- Location- Magnitude

PROCESSING AND DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS

END TO END CONCEPT OF EITWS

Denpasar

Padang

BMG HQ Jakarta

OBSERVATION

Decision support

Tsunami Warning

Dept. for Com

And Info

LOCAL AUTHORITIES

JAKARTA

• Tide Gauge• Buoy/OBU• GPS LAND STATION• Earth Observation

1

2

BMG EMAIL

SERVER

BMG SMS

SERVER 2303

AEIC EMAIL

SERVER

AEIC SMS SERVER

MASS MEDIA

BAKORNAS PBP

Local Gov

WARNING !!

PUBLIC

Epicenter

• Seismograph• accelerograph

Banda Aceh

EvacuateWatch

AdvisoryCancellation



Main Activities

Seismology4 Broadbandstations installedProvisional Earthquake-Monitoring System at BMG active

Ocean-Instrumentation2 Buoy-Systems installedFirst Site Survey for Tide Gauges completedDeep-water bathymetry partly completed

GPSFirst site survey completedGNSS reflectometry study started



Main Activities

Early Warning CentreConceptual Phase for design and architecture startedFirst workshop on conceptual and architectural design in Jakarta

ModellingSource modelling group startedDeep Water modelling group startedShallow water and run-up modelling group ready to go

Capacity BuildingFact Finding Mission Conceptual discussion completedAnnouncements for PhD program publishedCapacity Building Unit in Indonesia in preparation



International activities

Indonesian-German System well established in theUNESCO–IOC and IOC-ICG framework.

Contacts in the field of seismology with Australiaand South Africa established.

Cooperation with Sri Lanka (Seismology, WarningCentre, Tide Gauges, Capacity Building) ready to sign.


Earthquake Earthquake monitoringmonitoring



RSC 1RSC 1

RSC 6RSC 6

RSC 4RSC 4

RSC 2RSC 2

RSC 9RSC 9

RSC 7RSC 7RSC 3RSC 3

RSC 10RSC 10

RSC 8RSC 8

RSC 5RSC 5

NSCNSC

BROADBAND SEISMIC STATIONS NETWORK BROADBAND SEISMIC STATIONS NETWORK INSTALLED (OCT, 2005) INSTALLED (OCT, 2005)

BMGBMG

Japan (7)Japan (7) Regional Centre (10)Regional Centre (10) RSC = Regional Seismic Center

NSC = National Seismic CenterGerman (1)German (1) CTBTO (1)CTBTO (1)



RSC 1

RSC 6

RSC 4

RSC 2

RSC 9

RSC 7RSC 3

RSC 10

RSC 8

RSC 5

NSCNSC

BROADBAND SEISMIC STATIONS NETWORK BROADBAND SEISMIC STATIONS NETWORK INSTALLED and Planned 2006INSTALLED and Planned 2006

BMGBMG

Japan (10) Regional Centre (10) RSC = Regional Seismic Center

NSC = National Seismic CenterGerman (4) CTBTO (1)

BMG (14)’05 China (2) BMG (30), ‘06 RISTEK (10), ‘06



Proposed Station Distribution for an Earthquake Monitoring Network for the Indian Ocean Region (Locations to be discussed)

Seismology



Planned installation TEWS in BMG 2006 Planned installation TEWS in BMG 2006

30 BB Seismic and Accelerographs stations30 BB Seismic and Accelerographs stations10 BB seismic and accelerograph, provided by 10 BB seismic and accelerograph, provided by Ministry of Research and Technology of IndonesiaMinistry of Research and Technology of IndonesiaBB and Accelerographs of German, China and BB and Accelerographs of German, China and Japan; 10, 5 and 4Japan; 10, 5 and 4SireneSirene system in system in AcehAceh, , PadangPadang and and DenpasarDenpasarRegional centers; Regional centers; MedanMedan, , PadangPadang, , CiputatCiputat, , YogyaYogya, , DenpassarDenpassar, , MakassarMakassar, , ManadoManado, , AmbonAmbon, , KupangKupangand and JayapuraJayapuraCommunication system for dataCommunication system for dataCommunication system for information; with Communication system for information; with POLRI (Police) and broadcasting agenciesPOLRI (Police) and broadcasting agencies


Sea level Sea level monitoringmonitoring



3o43'41"S, 99o13'52”E

3o43'55”S, 99o13'50”E5.239 m

Sumatra

Nias

Siberut

Pagai

0o27'S, 96o52’E

5.200 m

Padang

Simeulue

Bengkulu

The First Tsunametersin Indian Ocean

23 November 2005

20 November 2005Baruna Jaya I

Sonne GITWS #2

GITWS #1



Existing Tide GaugesExisting Tide Gauges

60 Existing operational stations 60 Existing operational stations 25 digital on line via cable telephone25 digital on line via cable telephone35 analog graphical chart35 analog graphical chart5 real time stations (April 2005 5 real time stations (April 2005 –– to date)to date)

Upgrade from analog to digitalUpgrade from analog to digital

Analog

Radar

Pressure

float gauge

float gauge

Bali Sibolga Padang Banten



Real Time StationsReal Time StationsCompleted Before 20 December 2005Completed Before 20 December 2005

analogdigital

NOAA/UHSLC

Private Funding



Proposed RealProposed Real--time Stations time Stations to be completed in 2007to be completed in 2007

analogdigital

NOAA/UHSLC

National FundingGerman FundingPrivate Funding


GPS TechnologyGPS Technology



GPS-IGS Global

GPS at BenchmarkGPS at Tide Gauge

•

•

••

Sea-level Change Monitoring



SuGArSuGAr (Sumatra GPS Array LIPI (Sumatra GPS Array LIPI –– Caltech) Caltech)




CrustalCrustal Deformation MonitoringDeformation MonitoringPlan to install Continuous GPS ( 27 GPS near tide gauges and 10 GPS near Buoys)


GeoreferenceGeoreference Data, Data, Tsunami and Risk Tsunami and Risk

ModellingModelling



AcehAceh 20042004

N N SumateraSumatera 19351935

W W SumateraSumatera 18331833

KrakatauKrakatau 18831883

East Java 1994East Java 1994

ToliToli--tolitoli 19961996

Flores 1992Flores 1992

BiakBiak 19961996BanggaiBanggai 20002000

EXISTING NUMERICAL TSUNAMI EXISTING NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODELMODEL

(using Tsunami model, DCRC, Tohoku Univ., Japan)(using Tsunami model, DCRC, Tohoku Univ., Japan)




Animation windows and photos of the Animation windows and photos of the 1994 East Java tsunami 1994 East Java tsunami




Indonesian tsunami database and information Indonesian tsunami database and information system interface softwaresystem interface software

LegenddaBatimetri

Layer Control

Tools Control

Digital map

Database

Navigator Basis Data

Control panel for document, figures etc.

Search function



Potentially inundated areas in Padang(with elevation)

PadangPadang

Padang7 km

3 Dimensional map of 3 Dimensional map of PadangPadangand its surroundingsand its surroundings



Pariaman -43 min

Painan - 43 min

Padang City - 37 min

Teluk Bayur - 43 min



The 1797 West Sumatra Tsunami Model

Deformation Model(Danny, 2002)

dx=dy = 1100 mnx=ny = 550Tsunami source base on

Danny’s deformation modelMagnitude =8.4



EWMC

DSS

EO Images(incl.Meteo)

Display


Display


Display

ModelResults

GeospatialData

Model SimulationResearch and production Geospatial Repository

System Monitoring & Control

SeismicSystemGeofon

SeismicSystemGeofon

location,strength

propagation

location,strength

propagation

Government Institutionsof Indonesia

Regional Centers of EITWC

Warning DossierDisplay

Warning DossierDisplay

EO image productsEO image products

sea level (ocean)

sea level (ocean)

Spatio-Temp.Information

Display

Spatio-Temp.Information

Display

MapDisplay

MapDisplay

Tide GaugeSystem

Sea LevelDisplay

Sea LevelDisplay

Sea LevelDisplay

GPSDisplay

GPSDisplay

GPSDisplay

GPSLand Based

System

GPSLand Based

System

modelresults

Ingestion

modelresults

IngestionIngestion

geospatialdata

Ingestion

geospatialdata

IngestionIngestion

sea level (coast line)sea level

(coast line)

Archiving

FieldSirens, public, NGO

update

International Partners of EWC

Sensor Proc.Data

EOSystemEO

System

sensor data requestsensor data request


info

rmat

ion

dem

and

info

rmat

ion

dem

and

information demandinformation demand

cataloguequeries

cataloguequeries

Info

rmat

ion

and

data

CrisisProducts

data requestdata request

Sensor System Management

location,fault up-depth,

fault widthaverage

displacement,displacement

asymmetry factor

location,fault up-depth,

fault widthaverage

displacement,displacement

asymmetry factor

Geospatial Analysis

MapProduction

Decision Process Control

Warning Dossier

Generation

User Interface / Visualisation

signal datasignal data

command land stationchange mode

(normal or tsunami)

command land stationchange mode

(normal or tsunami)

command buoychange mode

(normal or tsunami)

command buoychange mode

(normal or tsunami)

heightwave length

heightwave length

sea levelsea level

command gaugechange mode

(normal or tsunami)

command gaugechange mode

(normal or tsunami)sensor data requestsensor data request


command geofonchange mode

(normal or tsunami)

command geofonchange mode

(normal or tsunami)

crisis productscrisis products

field

info

rmat

ion

field

info

rmat

ion

Buoys/OBUSystem

signal datasignal data

SeismogramDisplay

SeismogramDisplay

SeismogramDisplay

EO images(satellite)

EO images(satellite)

Ear

thqu

ake

info

rmat

ion



11

22

33

44

55

1010

3030

6060

Tsunami Tsunami Confirmation or Confirmation or CancelationCancelation

•• SeisSeis. and . and AccelerographAccelerograph : Record : Record

•• Alarm TriggeredAlarm Triggered

•• Automatic ProcessingAutomatic Processing

ProcessProcess Information :Information :••Epicenter Epicenter ••Magnitude Magnitude ••Depth ;Origin TimeDepth ;Origin Time

•• Alarm at NatAlarm at Nat’’l EITWCl EITWC•• Automatic ProcessingAutomatic Processing

REGIONAL REGIONAL TSUNAMI TSUNAMI WARNINGWARNING

Interactive Interactive AnalysisAnalysis

DATA BASE• Historical• Simulation

BUOYS BUOYS –– TIDE GAUGETIDE GAUGE’’S S MONITORINGMONITORING

For For ConfirmationConfirmation

WARNING !!WARNING !!NATNAT’’L TSUNAMIL TSUNAMI

•• AUTOMATICAUTOMATIC PROCESSING/PROCESSING/•• INTERACTIVE PROCESSINGINTERACTIVE PROCESSING

EarthquakeOccurence

Real Time Real Time DateDateFor Updating For Updating

Processing Time Frame(Minute 1 – Minute 10)

Minute 1: Signal recorded at ≥ 5 Stations

Minute 2: Processing

Minute 3: Result Finding EQ Parameters (Origin Time; Epicenter; Depth; Magnitude)

Minute 4: - Database isactivated

- InteractiveAnalysis

Minute 5: Warning !!

Minute 10: Warning From Nat’l Center to Wider Region/ International

DATA BASE• Historical• Simulation

Time (in Minutes) Required for Processing Warning InformationTime (in Minutes) Required for Processing Warning Information



ConclusionConclusionThe INA TWS (with significant cooperation The INA TWS (with significant cooperation and contribution from Germany, Japan, and contribution from Germany, Japan, China, France, US) has shown its remarkable China, France, US) has shown its remarkable progress, ready to part of the First Phase of progress, ready to part of the First Phase of IOTWSIOTWSSeveral challenges lie ahead:Several challenges lie ahead:

Integration of componentsIntegration of componentsCommunication component needs special Communication component needs special attentionattentionInteroperability with other national centersInteroperability with other national centersWorking on the Working on the ““the last milethe last mile”” will be the most will be the most crucial part (linking the regional crucial part (linking the regional –– national national –– local local aspects)aspects)

The Indonesian – German Contribution to the Indian Ocean ... · Warning Dept. for Com And Info...

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