The Inconsistency on land use/cover and spatial plan · PDF fileJava = Disaster Island? •...

The Inconsistency on land use/cover and spatial plan:

The case of Jabodetabek Region and Cisarua-Puncak Area

Center for Regional Systems, Analysis, Planning and

Development (P4W), Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)

Ernan Rustiadi

Afifah

Diar Shiddiq

Andrea Emma Pravitasari

Java = Disaster Island?

• Many studies indicated that carrying capacity

of Java Island has been overshoot (Rustiadi et

al. 2008; KLH, 2009)

• Disaster in Jabodetabek Region (Megapolitan)

is the examples for these case

Floods and landslides in Java are classified as

anthropogenic disaster (caused by human being)

That caused by decreasing of conservatory and

agriculture area (Rustiadi et al., 2009)

Forest land cover in Java only 14% ( P4W team,

IPB, 2008).

Based on (Law No 26/2007 Concerning Spatial

Management and Law No 41/2000 Concerning

Forestry) the spatial determines that the forest

area must be at least 30% of the total area.

Anthropogenic disaster is caused by spatial

inconsistency :

(1)Exsisting land use is not suitable with spatial

plan, and

(2)Spatial planning/plan is not suitable with

spatial use planning rules (principles)

Inconsistencies in Spatial Plan are mostly related

with inconsistencies in Green Open Space.

(a)Protection area

(b)Agriculture area

Spatial Inconsistency

Land Use Map in Jabodetabek Year 2005

Jabodetabek Region

The Inconsistency

between Spatial

Plan and Existing

Land Cover (2001)

Production Forest Agric Land Uses

Agriculture Built Up Areas

Conservation Zone Built Up Areas

Previous study (Rustiadi et al. 2002)

Kontur_pol.shp

0-25

100-200

1000-1100

1100-1200

1200-1300

1300-1400

1400-1500

1500-1600

1600-1700

1700-1800

1800-1900

1900-2000

200-300

2000-2100

2100-2200

2200-2300

2300-2400

2400-2500

25-50

2500-2600

300-400

400-500

50-100

500-600

600-700

700-800

800-900

900-1000

30 0 30 60 Kilometers

N

EW

S

PETA KETINGGIANJABOTABEK

Contur Map of

Jabodetabek

LUCC and Spatial

Inconsitency Analyses

• LUCC in Jabodetabek 1972-2010

• Spatial Inconsistency between

Spatial Plan (President Decree

54/2009) and existing land use/cover

• Identify Antropogenic Environmental

Disaster

• Spatial Inconsistency in Puncak

(Cisarua District)

LUCC and Spatial

Inconsistency in

Jabodetabek Region

(Land Use Changes Analysis)

Employing Landsat MSS, ETM and ETM+ of 1983, 1992, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005 (+AVNIR) and 2010 (+AVNIR)

Spatial Plan Map (President Decree No 54/ 2009)

Spatial Plan of Jabodetabek +

Punjur 2008-2028

(president Decree 54/2009)

NO SPATIAL PLAN CLASSIFICATION

EXSISTING LANDUSE OF JABODETABEK

FOREST BUILT UP

AREA BUSH POND

MIXED GARDEN

RICE FIELD (WET)

RICE FIELD (DRY)

UPLAND GRASS

1 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1 PROTECTED FOREST V X X X X X X X X

2 CONSERVATION FOREST V X X X X X X X X

3 Paddy Field (IRIGATION TECHNICS) V X V V V V V V V

4 Low Density Settlement; Upland Agriculture V V V V V V V V V

5 Low Density Settlement; Upland Agriculture; fishpond; husbandty; Agroinduustry; Production Forest

V V V V V V V V V

6 High Density Settlement (Urban) ; Commercial; Services; light (non poluted) and market oriented industry

V V V V V V V V V

7 Medium density Settlement (rural); Upland Agriculture; industry

V V V V V V V V V

8 Low density Industry; Built Up Area Ratio < 40% V V V V V V V V V

9 Low density Industry; Built Up Area Ratio < 50% V V V V V V V V V

10 Zon4 B4, Permanent or limited Production Forest V X X X X X X X X

11 Zon4 B7, Permanent or limited Production Forest V X X X X X X X X

V : consistent

X : Inconsistent

Inconsistency Matrix

PADDY FIELD

CONSERVATION FOREST

PROTECTEION FOREST

ZONA B4; PRODUCTION FOREST

ZONA B7; PRODUCTION FOREST

INCONSISTENCY

SPATIAL PLANNING OF

JABODETABEK

2010

SPATIAL PLANNING CLASSIFICATION SPATIAL PLANNING

AREA (HA) INCONSISTENCY

(HA)

PERSENTAGE INCONSISTENCY

(HA)

PROTECTED FOREST 21388,01 9057,84 42,35

CONSERVATION FOREST/ NATURAL RESOURCE RESERVE / NATIONAL PARK / GARDENTOUR NATURE / WILDLIFE RESERVE / CULTURE / HERITAGE

46639,82 17416,58 37,34

PADDY FIELD (IRIGATION TECHNICS) 66463,00 11476,66 17,27

Zon4 B4, Permanent or limited Production Forest 35478,00 28071,27 79,12

Zon4 B7, Permanent or limited Production Forest 5547,30 5015,49 90,41

TABLE OF SPATIAL PLAN INCONCISTENCIES OF

JABODETABEK REGION IN 2010

SPATIAL PLANNING OF JABODETABEKJUR

Existing LAND Cover/ USE 2010

Acreage of inconsistency

(HA)

Zon4 B4, Permanent or limited Production Forest

Garden 4052,10

UPLAND 3402,09

BUILT UP AREA 1422,20 GRASS 355,72 Irrigated Paddy Field 977,39

Dryland Paddy Field 4155,60

BUSH 13706,17 TOTAL 28071,27

MAJOR SPATIAL INCONSISTENCIES

Inconsistency Spatial Plan

MAJOR SPATIAL

INCONCISTENCIES

IN JABODETABEK REGION

(2010): Production Forest

FLOODS AND LANDSLIDEs

IN JABODETABEK 2000-2008

FL

OO

DS

IN

JA

BO

DE

TA

BE

K

LA

ND

SL

IDE

S I

N J

AB

OD

ET

AB

EK

Years

Floods

Numbers of

Village

Persentage

(%)

2000 102 6.00

2003 609 35.82

2006 332 19.53

2008 644 37.88

FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES IN JABODETABEK

Years

Landslides

Numbers of

Village

Persentage

(%)

2000 26 1.53

2003 95 5.59

2006 134 7.88

2008 305 17.94

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2003 2006 2008

102

609

332

644

26

95134

305

Ju

mla

h d

esa y

an

g m

en

gala

mi

Tahun

Banyaknya desa di Kawasan Jabodetabek yang mengalami kejadian banjir dan longsor tahun 2000-2008

Banjir

Longsor

Sumber: Data Podes (2000, 2003, 2006, 2008), diolah.

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

40,00

2000 2003 2006 2008

6,00

35,82

19,53

37,88

1,53

5,597,88

17,94

Pers

en

tase (%

)

Tahun

Persentase desa di Kawasan Jabodetabek

yang mengalami kejadian banjir dan longsor

tahun 2000-2008

Banjir

Longsor

Floods and

Landslides in

Jabodetabek

Increase

• Flood and landslides insidents

follow top of rainfall dynamic in

rainy season, but disasters

possibility increase as the

carrying capacity low

• Potential anthropogenic disasters

such landslides (and flood) in

increasing

Floods and Landslides

in Jabodetabek Increase


in Puncak Area (Cisarua SubDistrict)

Employing Landsat MSS, ETM and ETM+ of 1983, 1992, 2000, 2003, 2005 (+AVNIR) and 2010 (+AVNIR)

Spatial Plan Map (President Decree No 54/ 2009)

Land Use Map in Jabodetabek Year 2005

SITUATION MAP

Data

* Google Earth imagery 2009, Quickbird 2006,

Ikonos imagery 2006

* Spatial Plan Map of Bogor Regency 2005-2025.

* Administration map of Cisarua SubDistrict (Digitized

from Spatial Plan of Bogor Regency 2005-2025)

* Road map of Bogor Regency.

* PODES Data of the upstream of Ciliwung watershed

(2006 and 2008).

* Some Field observation (2009-2010)


in Cisarua SubDistrict

(Spatial Plan 2005-2025

vs. Existing Land Use/2010)

9 Classes of Land Use Classification

1. Forest

2. Bush/ Dry field farming

3. Tea Plantation

4. Settlement

5. Real Estate

6. Villas

7. Emplasment/ Other Building

8. Rice Field

9. Community Forest / Mixed Garden

1 0 1 2 Kilometers

N

Sumber:Peta Pola Ruang RTRW

Kabupaten Bogor 1999-2009

Peta RTRW Kecamatan Cisarua Tahun 1999-2009710000

710000

715000

715000

720000

720000

725000

725000

9255000

9255000

9260000

9260000

9265000

9265000

Keterangan

Kawasan Hutan LindungKawasan Pengembangan Perkotaan

Kawasan Perdesaan

Kawasan Perkebunan

Kawasan Pertanian Lahan Basah

Kawasan Pertanian Lahan Kering

Kawasan Tanaman Tahunan

Jalan Raya Puncak

Keterangan

Sungai Utama

Anak Sungai

0.8 0 0.8 1.6 Kilometers

710000

710000

715000

715000

720000

720000

725000

7250009255000

9255000

9260000

9260000

9265000

9265000

Sumber:Peta Pola Ruang RTRW

Kabupaten Bogor 2005-2025

Anak Sungai

Sungai Utama

Keterangan

Jalan Utama

Hutan KonservasiHutan LindungPerkebunanPermukiman Perdesaan (Hunian Jarang)Permukiman Perdesaan (Hunian Rendah)Permukiman Perkotaan (Hunian Rendah)Permukiman Perkotaan (Hunian Sedang)Pertanian Lahan KeringSungai BesarTanaman Tahunan

Keterangan

N

Peta RTRW Kecamatan Cisarua Tahun 2005-2025

THE CHANGES OF SPATIAL PLAN

IN CISARUA SUBDISTRICT

Spatial Plan of Cisarua SubDistrict Year 1999-2009 Spatial Plan of Cisarua SubDistrict t Year 2005-2025

Information Information

Inconsistency Matrix

No

Land Use

Classification based

on Spatial Plan of

Bogor Regency

Existing Land Use of Cisarua

Forest

Bush/

Dryland

Farming

Tea

Plantati

on

Settlement Real

estate Villas

Emplas

ment/

other

building

Rice

field

Comm

unity

Forest/

Mixed

Garden

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1 Protecdtion

Area

Conservation forest V X X X X X X X X

2 Conservatory Forest V X X X X X X X X

3

Cult

ture Area

Plantation V X V X X X X V V

4 Rural Settlement

(Rare Population) V V V V V V V V V

5 Rural Settlement

(Low Population) V V V V V V V V V

6 Urban Settlement

(Low Population) V V V V V V V V V

7 Urban Settlement

(Medium Population) V V V V V V V V V

8 Dryland Farming V V V X X X X V V

9 Tree crops V X V X X X X V V

Information : V : Consistent

X : Inconsistent

Land use inconsistency of Cisarua District

* Area of Cisarua SubDistrict: 7406,30 ha

* Total Inconsistency: 1742,58 ha (23,53%)

* There are 1863 polygon inconsistent (0,01 ha - 303,72 ha)

* The largest inconsistencies took place in: Desa Tugu Utara (570,69 ha) or 32,75% (of total inconsistencies in Cisarua District)

* The largest inconsistency’s form: Conservatory forest to Tea plantation 524,18 ha (7,08%)

Spatial Inconsistency in Cisarua SubDistrict

# S

# S # S # S # S

# S # S

# S

# S # S # S

# S

# S

Conservation forest => Emplasment/ other building

Conservation forest => Community Forest/Mixed Garden

Conservation forest => Tea Plantation

Conservation forest => Settlement

Conservation forest => Real estate

Conservation forest => Bush/ Dryland Farming

Conservation forest => Villas

Conservatory Forest => Emplasment/ other building

Conservatory Forest => Community Forest/Mixed Garden

Conservatory Forest => Tea Plantation

Conservatory Forest => Real estate

Conservatory Forest => Settlement

Conservatory Forest => Rice field

Conservatory Forest => Bush/ Dryland Farming

Conservatory Forest => Villas

Plantation => Emplasment/ other building

Plantation => Real estate

Plantation => Settlement

Plantation => Bush/ Dryland Farming

Plantation => Villas

Dry field farming => Emplasment/ other building

Dry field farming =>Settlement

Dry field farming =>Villas

Tanaman Tahunan=> Settlement

Tanaman Tahunan=> Bush/ Dryland Farming

Tanaman Tahunan=> Villas

Tugu Selatan

Kopo

Tugu Utara

Cibeureum

Citeko

Cilember

Cisarua

Jogjogan

Batu Layang

Leuwimalang

N

Perubahan Land Use

0 1 Kilometers

Sumber : Peta Penggunaan Lahan Kec. CisaruaPeta RTRW Kec. Cisarua 2005 - 2025Peta Administrasi Kec. Cisarua

Legenda

708000

708000

710000

710000

712000

712000

714000

714000

716000

716000

718000

718000

720000

720000

722000

722000

724000

724000

9252000

9252000

9254000

9254000

9256000

9256000

9258000

9258000

9260000

9260000

9262000

9262000

9264000

9264000

Lokasi pengamatan#SJalan lokal

Jalan Raya Puncak

Batas Desa

Source:

Land Use Map of Cisarua District

Spasial planning Map of Cisarua District 2005 – 2025

Administration Map of Cisarua District

Tugu Selatan

Kopo

Tugu Utara

Cibeureum

Citeko

Cilember

Cisarua

Jogjogan

Batu Layang

Leuwimalang

N

Perubahan Land Use

0 1 Kilometers

Sumber : Peta Penggunaan Lahan Kec. CisaruaPeta RTRW Kec. Cisarua 2005 - 2025Peta Administrasi Kec. Cisarua

Legenda

708000

708000

710000

710000

712000

712000

714000

714000

716000

716000

718000

718000

720000

720000

722000

722000

724000

724000

9252000

9252000

9254000

9254000

9256000

9256000

9258000

9258000

9260000

9260000

9262000

9262000

9264000

9264000

Lokasi pengamatan#SJalan lokal

Jalan Raya Puncak

Batas Desa

Conservation forest => Emplasment/ other building

Conservation forest => Community Forest/Mixed Garden

Conservation forest => Tea Plantation

Conservation forest => Settlement

Conservation forest => Real estate

Conservation forest => Bush/ Dryland Farming

Conservation forest => Villas

Conservatory Forest => Emplasment/ other building

Conservatory Forest => Community Forest/Mixed Garden

Conservatory Forest => Tea Plantation

Conservatory Forest => Real estate

Conservatory Forest => Settlement

Conservatory Forest => Rice field

Conservatory Forest => Bush/ Dryland Farming

Conservatory Forest => Villas

Plantation => Emplasment/ other building

Plantation => Real estate

Plantation => Settlement

Plantation => Bush/ Dryland Farming

Plantation => Villas

Dry field farming => Emplasment/ other building

Dry field farming =>Settlement

Dry field farming =>Villas

Tanaman Tahunan=> Settlement

Tanaman Tahunan=> Bush/ Dryland Farming

Tanaman Tahunan=> Villas

Inconsistency Map of Cisarua District

# S

# S # S # S # S

# S # S

# S

# S # S # S

# S

# S

Proportion of Inconsistent Area

in Cisarua SubDistrict

8,41%

23,95%

32,75%

12,63%

8,00%

6,18%4,13%3,96%

Cilember

Jogjogan

Batu Layang

Kopo

Citeko

Tugu Utara

Tugu Selatan

Cibeureum

= 68.93 ha

= 71.93 ha

= 107.69 ha

= 139.34 ha

= 220.12 ha

= 570.69 ha

= 417.39 ha

= 146.49 ha

Land Use Inconsistency Based on Spatial Plan 2005-2025

Protection Area:

(1) Protection Forest and (2) Conservation Forest

Inconsistency on protection forest: 216,85 ha (17,53%)

(especially: protection forest bush/dryland farming (117,63 ha atau 9,51%)

Inconsistency on conservation forest: 957,61 ha (37,05%) (especially: conservation forest tea plantation 524,18 ha (20,28%)

39.21% 12.75%

434.33

106.41

27.38 43.84%

(ha)

%

Inconsistency Area

Percentage of

Inconsistency to

total land use

Total Area and Persentage Inconsistencies

in Cultivated Area

Plantations Dry Field Farming

Tree Crops

THE DETERMINANT FACTORS AFFECTING

LAND USE INCONSISTENCY

IN CISARUA DISTRICT

Inconsistency of Protection Forest Area(Y1) to Other Land Uses

Y1 = -1050,22 + 29,395 X4 + 0,852 X5 + 28,852 X6

– 0,413 D3 + 0,354 D5

(Multiple R square 0,496577)

Dimana:

Y1 = Inconsistency in Promoted Protection Forest Area (ha)

X4 = The Distance to The Collector Road (km)

X5 = The Distance to The Local Roads (km)

X6 = The Distance to The Path (km)

D3 = Conversion to Tea Plantations

D5 = Conversion to Settlement area

Regression Analysis Factors Affecting Land Use Inconsistency

Inconsistency Conservatory Forest Area(Y2) to Other Land Use Y2 = -3,061 + 0,289 X1 – 0,842 X7 + 1,102 D1 – 0,589 D3

+ 1,888D5 + 0,586 D6 +1,475 D8


Dimana:

Y2 = Inconsistency in Promoted Conservatory Forest Area (ha)

X1 = Population Density (Person/ha)

X7 = Percentage of Poor Families (%)

D1 = The Emplacement or Other Buildings

D3 = Tea Plantations

D5 = Settlement

D6 = Rice Fields

D8 = Villas

Inconsistency Conservatory Area(Y3) to Other Land Use

Y3 = -1,75579 + 0,143 X1 – 0,609 X4 – 0,146 X7 + 0,970 D1

– 0,701 D3 + 1,723 D5 + 1,379 D8


Dimana :

Y3 = Inconsistency on Conservatory Area of Spatial Plan to Another

Land Use (ha)


X4 = The Distance to The Collector Road (km)



D3 = Tea Plantations

D5 = Settlement

D8 = Villas

Factors that affecting spatial plan

Inconsistencies Area (Y1)

Y1= -59.30 + 202.55 D4 + 58.97 X5 (R2=0.83) ……(2)

D4 = Real Estate

X5 = The Distance of Village to Capital District (km)

+

+

Y1= 820.23 – 17.83 X3 – 0.166 X7 + 0.339 X8 – 0.031 X2

(R2=0.98) ………(1)


X7 = The distance of Village’s Centroid to Collector Road (km)

X8 = The distance of Village’s Centroid to Local Road (km)

X2 = Population Number (Person)

-

-

+

-

Factors that affecting spatial plan

Inconsistencies Polygon (Y2)

Ln Y2= 0.88 + 5.13 D5 - 0.35 ln X3 (R2=0.99) ……(1)

D5 = Residential Villages


+

-

Ln Y2= 8.04 + 5.61 D7 + 0.62 ln X1 - 1.32 ln X2

(R2=0.99) ………(2)

D7 = Dry Field Farming

X1 = Village’s Ares (ha)


+

+

-

Factors that affecting percentage of

spatial plan inconsistencies area (Y3)

Ln Y3= 14.88 + 3.51 D5 - 1.63 ln X2 + 1.09 D1 + 0.21 ln X6

(R2=0.98) ……(1)

D5 = Residential Villages




-

+

+

+

Ln Y3= 2.80 + 3.63 D7 - 0.54 ln X1 + 0.81 D4

(R2=0.96) ………(2)

D7 = Dry Field Farming

X1 = Village’s Ares (ha)

D4 = Real Estate

+

+

-

Factors that affecting percentage of

Conservatory inconsistencies area (Y4)

Ln Y4= 3.05 + 3.83 D2 - 0.38 ln X9 (R2=0.98) ……(1)

D2 = Community Forest or Mixed Garden

X9 = The distance of Village’s Centroid to The Path (km) -

+

Summary of Reggression model Result :

The factors affecting inconsitency

Inconsistency tend to occur in less access

areas (less density area, far from the street and

subdistrict administration)

Inconsistency of spatial plan was not as only as

impact of proverty, but it is more influenced

high class society (such as villas or real estate)

and due to land utilization conflict which

involve corporations (tea plantation and real

estate)

Closing (1)

Technically, environment degradation in Java

dan escpecially Jabodetabek is caused by

decreasing of carrying capacity.

Carrying capacity has been decreasing due to

the inconsistency of spatial functions of

agricultural and protection areas

The most dominant spatial plan inconsistency

in Jabodetabek areas are taken place in forest

area and agriculture plantation areas

Closing (2)

The Inconsistency of spatial use in Puncak are not

solely as an impact of proverty (land “hungry” poor

people) but more as impact to the “greedy” of elite

society, corporations and inter-governmental

conflicts.

The significant inter-governmental conflicts are

located at forestry and plantation areas that belong

to central government authority.

Closing (3)

Regional Planning system should be supported by

strong and effective Controlling system.

The usage of Spatial Data (map, satellite image, etc)

and geospatial technology could support more

efficient and effective approach on spatial planning

system.

The Inconsistency on land use/cover and spatial plan · PDF fileJava = Disaster Island? •...

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