The Importance of the IEA-Russia Energy DialogueJoint IEA-Federal Tariff Service WorkshopIEA, Paris, 27-28 May 2010

Mr. Nobuo TanakaExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA - 2010

Efficiency measures account for 2/3 of the 3.8Gt abatement in 2020, with renewables contributing to 1/5. With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+ region, financing will hold a key to the energy sector meeting a carbon-constrained

trajectory.

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

2007 2015 2020 2025 2030

450 Scenario

Reference Scenario

Gt

Efficiency – 57%

Renewables/Biofuels – 23%

Nuclear – 10%

CCS – 10%

OECD+

Other Major Economies

Other Countries

Efficiency – 45%

Renewables/Biofuels – 21%Nuclear – 13%CCS – 20%

Efficiency – 67%

Renewables/Biofuels – 19%Nuclear– 8%CCS – 6%

Efficiency – 55%

Renewables/Biofuels – 34%Nuclear – 9%

3.8 Gt

13.8 Gt

WorldBy region

7

World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in a Carbon-constrained outlook

World abatement of energy-related CO2 emissions in a Carbon-constrained outlook

© OECD/IEA - 2010

End-use efficiency, renewables and nuclear account for most CO2 abatement in 2020 relative to the Reference Scenario, with CCS subsequently also playing a key role

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2007 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt

450 Scenario

Reference Scenario

Efficiency 48 308 51 153

End-use 47 305 48 153

Power plants 1 3 3 0

Renewables 47 190 7 89

Biofuels 1 2 0 1

Nuclear 31 33 0 0

CCS 7 59 3 25

Abatement Investment

(Mt CO2) ($2008 billion)

2020 20302010-2020

2021-2030

Russia energy-related CO2 emissions abatement, relative to Reference Scenario

Russia energy-related CO2 emissions abatement, relative to Reference Scenario

© OECD/IEA - 2010

© OECD/IEA - 2009

Fossil fuel subsidies – by country and as a share of GDP, 2008

Global subsidized consumption of fossil fuels amounted to US$ 557 billion in 2008. Of the countries surveyed this represents 2.1% of

GDP (PPP) on average

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iran

Russ

ia

Saud

i Ara

bia

Indi

a

Chin

a

Egyp

t

Vene

zuel

a

Mex

ico

Indo

nesi

a

Arge

ntina

Iraq

Uzb

ekis

tan

UAE

Paki

stan

Ukr

aine

Mal

aysi

a

Kuw

ait

Alge

ria

Sout

h Af

rica

Thai

land

Chin

ese

Taip

ei

Turk

men

ista

n

Ecua

dor

Bang

lade

sh

Liby

a

Qat

ar

Viet

nam

Nig

eria

Kaza

khst

an

Azer

baija

n

Ango

la

Colo

mbi

a

Sri L

anka

Peru

Brun

ei

Kore

a

Phili

ppin

es

Subs

idy

(bill

ion

US$

)

coal

gas

oil

% of GDP

© OECD/IEA - 2009

World abatement of energy-related COWorld abatement of energy-related CO22 emissions emissions

Although the savings are not strictly cumulative, the Copenhagen Accord and the G-20 commitment to phase out subsidies are complementary steps towards the 450 Scenario

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gt

450 Scenario

Subsidyphase out

3.8 Gt

13.8 Gt27

29

31

33

35

2007 2010 2015 2020

Gt

Reference Scenario

450 Scenario

Current Pledges

Reference Scenario

Copenhagen Accord

27

29

31

33

35

2007 2010 2015 2020

Gt

450 Scenario

Reference Scenario

Subsidy removal