The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models
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Transcript of The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models
The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models
Summary of field research in Leticia, Colombia, Feb. 18th –
26th, 2011
Outline
Assess feasibility of acquiring sounding data in the Amazon basin What is sounding data? Why do we need it? What are the constraints?
Climate vs. Weather
Weather: recent or current conditions (ex. Cloud cover, precipitation)• Short term
Climate: typical weather for a given location• Long term• Includes weather extremes• Ex. Monthly rainfall, snowfall, normal temp extremes
What is Sounding Data?
Real time data for atmospheric variables Temperature Pressure Relative Humidity Winds
Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs)
Included in Global Climate Models AGCMs differ in spatial resolutions Variables
temperature pressure humidity winds water and ice condensate in cloud
Limited-Area Models/RegionalClimate Models (RCMs)
Studying climatic processes and interactions on scales too fine for typical GCM resolutions.
RCMs can give more intense events that will be smoothed in coarser-resolution GCMs.
Environmental Lapse Rate Environmental Lapse Rate • the decrease
in temperature with altitude (-dT/dz or -dT/dp)
Atmospheric layers are defined by the change of sign of the lapse rate
Data Collection Methods Surface
Stations or ships Radiosonde
Tether System High – Altitude Balloon
Satellite Microwave Radiation
Radiosondes
Many varieties Include instrument
and ground station Some are mobile
Expendable Includes:
Temperature Relative Humidity Pressure Wind
Balloon Sounding Constraints
Cost Mobility Accuracy of data
Cost Constraints
AnaSonde
Vaisala
Mobility Constraints
Requirements of Climate Studies
•Temperature• ±2.5°C at ambient
temperature
•Relative Humidity• ±2% for 10°C<T<20°C• ±5% for T<10°C
•Pressure• ±2%
AnaSonde Accuracy
Current Findings:
Christy et al. 2010: What Do Observational Datasets Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends since 1979?
Thorne et al. 2011: Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy
Preliminary Manaus analysis: Surface increase over last 10 years = .5 degrees C Sounding to 10km increase over same period is
only .15 degrees C
30 Year Sounding Analysis
Assign weight to each year at each altitude Increments of 100m
At each altitude, divide the sum of weight by the sum of % available
30 Year Sounding Analysis
Find difference at each altitude
Find the average difference
Find the average of the monthly trends
Monthly ELR Change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Natal ELR
Dry season ELR average changeWet season ELR average changeST average changeELR average changeMonthly ELR change
Month
ELR
Chan
ge (
deg
C)
MONTH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AVERAGE CHANGE -0.073820.109067 -0.14193 -0.12137 -0.15117 -0.498670.1925740.2873940.0588290.1276730.241961 -0.22174
AVERAGE ST CHANGE 0.1894480.6477450.0858280.7554890.7670180.1790160.8134740.2952060.2268070.871011 0.646140.437116AVERAGE DRY -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192
AVERAGE WET 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005AVERAGE -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593
AVERAGE ST 0.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.492858
AVERAGE SURFACE TEMP 28.69 28.67 28.55 28.15 27.67 26.32 25.64 26.13 27.56 28.44 28.89 28.94
AVERAGE 10KM TEMP -5.34 -5.09 -4.53 -4.19 -4.2 -4.76 -5.6 -5.16 -4.92 -4.81 -4.9 -5.16
AVERAGE 02KM TEMP 14.71 14.67 15.31 15.48 15.27 14.38 13.53 13.45 13.79 14.57 14.78 13.53AVERAGE ELR -5.85167 -5.82833 -5.70667 -5.56 -5.51333 -5.37 -5.415 -5.39833 -5.59 -5.71 -5.815 -5.89333
AVERAGE DRY ELR -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556
AVERAGE WET ELR -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972
Natal 12Z
MONTH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AVERAGE CHANGE 0.583342 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.69287 #DIV/0! 1.2259920.4658121.4963310.865918 #DIV/0!
AVERAGE ST CHANGE 1.01119 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.04101 #DIV/0! 1.0713281.1604341.1665391.162777 #DIV/0!
AVERAGE DRY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE WET #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE ST #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE SURFACE TEMP 26.97 27.56 27.46 27.63 26.38 25.39 24.66 24.63 25.1 26.14 26.53 26.83
AVERAGE 10KM TEMP -34.53 -33.63 -33.22 -32.43 -32.77 -33.45 -34.85 -34.38 -34.46 -34.14 -33.99 -35.09
AVERAGE 02KM TEMP 15.43 15.57 15.42 15.65 15.24 13.99 13.73 13.64 13.87 14.95 15.33 15.37
AVERAGE ELR -5.56667 -5.61667 -5.57833 -5.5 -5.34167 -5.36333 -5.19 -5.10667 -5.22 -5.34 -5.43333 -5.53833AVERAGE DRY ELR -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167
AVERAGE WET ELR -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675
Natal 00Z
Further Research
Accuracy and precision of sensors Quantifying uncertainties in sounding
data Acquiring reliable and cost-effective
sounding data for the Amazon rainforest Increase in the amount of data
Acknowledgements UM Office of Research and Sponsored Programs UM Excellence Fund: Office of the Provost and
Vice President for Academic Affairs UM Department of Physics and Astronomy Montana Space Grant Consortium Entropika Anasphere Jennifer Fowler