The impact of nitrogen and sulphur emissions from shipping on exceedances of critical loads in the Baltic Sea countries

Filip Moldan (IVL), Sara Jutterström (IVL), Max Posch (Europe), Mathias Karl (HZG, Germany)

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The Tier III controls apply only to the specified ships while operating in Emission Control Areas (ECA) established to limit NOx emissions, outside such areas the Tier II controls apply.

Sweden: diesel fuel for cars 10 ppm (0.001%) since 1991…

Models, models, data and models (CMAQ, SMOKE-EU, EMEP, EPER,

COSMO-CLM and STEAM), scenarios for 2040Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) based on position data of individual ships from the Automatic Identification System (AIS). This includes all merchant ships bigger than 300 GT.

• 2040_BAU: Business as usual scenario

• 2040_BAU_NoNECA: No implementation of NECA in 2021

• 2040_EEDI: assumed lower efficiency increase according to EEDI regulations of IMO otherwise same as BAU

• 2040_NoShip Future land-base NOx-emissions were reduced by 60% compared to present day

2012 S-deposition on 16X16 km grid

2012 ship contributionn only, mind the difference in the colour scheme from the previous slide

2040_BAU 2040_EEDI2040_BAU_NoNECA

Country 2012_NoShip 2012_Current 2040_NoShip 2040_BAU 2040_BAU_NoNECA 2040_EEDIDE 28.8 31.6 14.1 14.5 15.5 14.9DK 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EE 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0FI 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3LT 18.1 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0LV 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0NO 1.2 2.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2PL 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3RU 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0SE 4.0 4.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2

Exceedance of CL for acidity, Exceeded area (%)

2012 Ship contribution only, mind the difference in the colour scheme from the previous slide

2040_BAU 2040_EEDI2040_BAU_NoNECA

Country 2012_NoShip 2012_Current 2040_NoShip 2040_BAU 2040_BAU_NoNECA 2040_EEDIDE 74.2 81.8 39.6 41.0 43.2 41.4DK 96.0 98.9 76.4 78.7 82.7 79.7EE 24.6 48.6 9.1 9.5 10.5 9.6FI 3.7 7.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2LT 88.2 93.9 40.7 42.4 45.2 43.1LV 57.3 79.0 35.4 35.6 36.5 35.7NO 4.3 6.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8PL 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0RU 39.4 46.0 11.7 12.3 13.3 12.5SE 13.6 14.4 5.9 6.9 9.5 7.6

Exceedance of CL for eutrophication, Exceeded area (%)

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Conclusions:• S and N and emission controls implemented within and outside ECA are efficient and

have a significant impact on decreasing exceedance of CL in ”Baltic” countries (2102 –2040).

• For acidification the implementation of SECA brought about a significant decreases in CL exceedance in several countries. The differences between ships/no ships will in 2040 be relatively small.

• For eutrophication the shipping contribution to the exceedenca of CL will continue tobe significant even in 2040. Eg in SE up to one third of the remaining exceedance willbe due to shipping emissions.

• Differences between future scenarios are not large and conclusions are not toodependent on implemented scenario.