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PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
The impact of Connected Vehicles on the Insurance sector
June 2016 - PTOLEMUS intellectual property
Insurance Telematics’16
PTOLEMUS
PTOLEMUS in a nutshell
2
Strategy definition
Vision creation, strategic
positioning, business plan development,
board coaching & support
Investment assistance Strategic due
diligence, market
assessment, feasibility study,
M&A, post-acquisition plan
Innovation management
Value proposition definition, product
& services development,
architecture design, assistance to
launch
Business development
Partnership strategies,
detection of opportunities, ecosystem-
building, response to tenders
Our consulting services
Procurement strategy
Specification of requirements &
tender documents, launch of tenders,
supplier negotiation & selection
Implementation
Deployment plans, complex / high risk
project & programme
management, risk analysis &
mitigation strategy
Usage-based charging PAYD / PHYD insurance, road charging / electronic tolling,
fleet leasing & rental, car sharing, Car As A Service, etc.
Telematics & Intelligent Transport Systems ADAS, connected vehicle, crowd-sourcing, fleet
management, eCall, bCall, SVR, tracking, vehicle data analytics (OBD / CAN-bus), VRM, V2X, xFCD
Positioning / Location enablement
M2M & connectivity
Our fields of expertise
Car infotainment & navigation Connected services (Traffic information, fuel prices, speed
cameras, weather, parking, points of interest, social networking), driver monitoring, maps, smartphone
integration, smartphone-, PND- or embedded navigation,
PTOLEMUS is the first strategy consulting firm focused on telematics and geolocation
PTOLEMUS
Our clients are across the mobility ecosystem…
3
Mobile telecom operators
Device / location suppliers
Insurers, aggregators & assistance providersBanks & private equity investors
2012 Directors’ report
(translation from the Italian original which remains the definitive version)
Financial Statements of the Company and the Group at 31 December 2012
27 March 2013
Legal and Administrative Office: 20121 Milan - Foro Buonaparte, 44
Fully paid-up share capital € 314,225,009.80 Tax Code and Milan Company Register no. 00931330583
www.itkgroup.com
Automotive manufacturers & suppliersAnalytics providers
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Telematics solution providersApplications providers
ITS operators, regulators & fleets
1PTOLEMUS in a nutshell
PTOLEMUS * Italy, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and the US
Introduction to the 2016 study
3
• 1200+ pages of research using: - 286 interviews in 28 countries
- 5 years of research performed by 6 consultants in 4 countries
- Insights from 25+ consulting projects
- Our experience & vision of the ecosystem incl. OEMs and TSPs
- 422 figures (charts, tables, etc.)
• 42 case studies including Allianz, AllState, Carrot Insurance, Vodafone Auto, Ingenie, OnStar- Progressive, Discovery Insure, Liberty Mutual, Octo Telematics, Renault Amaguiz, State Farm, Unipol, Zurich
• A handbook of 69 suppliers' solutions including our own evaluation and ranking
• 28 insurance markets profiled
• 2020 & 2030 market forecasts - Canada, US, Latin America,
Europe, Russia, South Africa, India, Chinese and Japan
- Personal line / commercial line - Aftermarket / OEM
• Analyses of the disruptive forces at play - ADAS and autonomous vehicles - The eCall & ERA Glonass
mandates - The rise of smartphone apps - Big Data & analytics
• Targeted recommendations for insurers, regulators, TSP, OEMs and operators
The reference report on the subject, quoted by
The Economist, the Financial Times and
the Wall Street Journal
The 2016 study revealed UBI is becoming mainstream
PTOLEMUS
We just published the first global Connected Mobility Forecast assessing 14 markets
5
200-page quantitative analysis of the mobility market
• The future evolution of the whole connected mobility sector analysed
• 18 original graphs encapsulating the essence of the mobility market evolution
• 57 quantitative analysis graph describing each of the 14 markets
Total Addressable Market revealed • Separate analysis of the Total
Addressable Markets (TAM) size in volume and revenue for each of the 14 car-centric mobility applications.
• TAM account given from the perspectives of the MSPs and CSPs*
14 comparative analysis of mobility services based on:
• Delivery, service and business models • Value chains and key players
• Regulatory and competitive environment • Connectivity penetration per region • Key volume and revenue drivers • Current and future market trends • Global forecast to 2020 of the volumes
and revenues per region • 18 countries and areas covered
4800-lines underlying data sheet including:
• The total addressable market in volume and value seen from the Mobility service providers (MSP)* and the Connectivity Service Providers (CSP) perspective
• The total underlying volumes and revenues per country
• The volume and revenue forecasts for the MSP and for the CSP
• The split between OEM and Aftermarket volumes and revenues
… and another thing … 1
* Mobility Service Providers (MSP) and Connectivity Service Providers (CSP) varies per sector
PTOLEMUS 6* The definition of Mobility Service Providers (MSP) and Connectivity Service Providers (CSP) varies per sector
Forecast content
We just published the first global Connected Mobility Forecast assessing 14 markets
PTOLEMUS
Connected Mobility Forecast - some results
UBI is only one out of many mobility services experiencing rapid growth
• The car mobility services market will grow to over $350 billion affecting 650 million cars
• By 2020, 45 out of 80 million new cars will be sold connected worldwide
• The share of aftermarket provision for all service revenues will reach 84% in 2020
• OEMs are embracing mobility
• None of the 14 services will be provided individually in 2020
• At the centre is the ability to access driver and car data
7
Total connected services market revenues forecasts ($ in million)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total connected services market revenues for MSP forecasts
($ in million)
Car leasing
Car sharing
Car pooling
UBI
ETC
Fuel services
telematics FMS
Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
PTOLEMUS
Connected Mobility Forecast - some results
UBI is only one out of many mobility services experiencing rapid growth
• The car mobility services market will grow to over $350 billion affecting 650 million cars
• By 2020, 45 out of 80 million new cars will be sold connected worldwide
• The share of aftermarket provision for all service revenues will reach 84% in 2020
• OEMs are embracing mobility
• None of the 14 services will be provided individually in 2020
• At the centre is the ability to access driver and car data
8Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
Penetration of leasing in fleet vehicles and connectivity in leased vehicles worldwide 2020
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Fleet vehicles worldwide Connected leased vehicles
39%
61%
83%
17%
LeasedNon-leasedNon-connectedConnected
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Fleet vehicles in Europe Connected leased vehicles
49%
51%
68%
32%
LeasedNon-leasedNon-connectedConnected
Penetration of leasing in fleet vehicles and connectivity in leased vehicles Europe 2020
PTOLEMUS Source: PTOLEMUSPTOLEMUS
There are now 50% more UBI programmes than in 2013
9
The growth pattern has changed
The UBI market today
• 292 UBI active programmes in June 2016
• On top of an estimated 45 trials worldwide, many of those in Europe
• New markets are opening: Russia, New Zealand, Thailand, Indonesia, Turkey...
• The fastest growth last year was in the US now the largest market
• 6 insurances have now more than 500K UBI subscribers
• PHYD now leads over PAYD with 78% of North American programmes and 53% of European ones using behaviour based pricing
Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
UBI programmes (Europe)
UK
Italy
France
Germany
Spain
Russia
Belgium
Ireland
Netherlands
Austria
Slovakia
Switzerland
Turkey
Czech republic
Hungary
Belarus
Denmark
Greece
Norway
Portugal
Slovenia
Croatia
8 15 23 30 38 45 53 60
June 2016December 2013
UBI programmes (rest of world)
US
Canada
China
South Africa
Australia
Japan
Brazil
Columbia
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Ecuador
India
Israel
Malta
New Zealand
Taiwan
10 20 30 40 50
June 2016December 2013
PTOLEMUS
UBI is not yet eating to its full potential
• UBI can work outside the Young Driver segment
• Italy has 15% UBI penetration and it still growing fast
• Continued investment from OEMs and Wireless operators
• The number of Smartphone UBI programmes has tripled since 2013
• TBYB is not the only way to introduce smartphone UBI
• Many of its programmes do not use driver data efficiently
10Source: PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
The UBI market today
PTOLEMUS Text
Allianz has finally kicked off the Germany UBI market
• GDV enabled insurers to buy devices together
• 12 volt CLA chosen: price, compatibility, flexibility
• Allianz BonusDrive: ecall, bCall, mobile app
• Allianz Drive: behaviour based pricing with coaching and gamification.
• Privacy attack protection from data protection commissioners
• Taiwan association of insurers is following that model
11
The UBI market today
PTOLEMUS 12
VEHICLE PRODUCTION
DEVICE PRODUCTION
SERVICE PROVISION
DATA MANAGEMENT
TELEMATICS PROCESS
MANAGEMENTDISTRIBUTIONDEVICE
INSTALLATION
Illustration of OEM partnership models
2
GM has been the first OEM to launch its own insurance telematics solution based on OnStar data
Source: PTOLEMUS Note: OEMs may partner with different B2B provider offering different part of the value chain in white label
UBI insurer 1
UBI insurer 2
Tier-1 supplier
Tier-1 supplier
1
2
3
3
4
Tier-1 supplier
UBI market trends - OEMs changing role
PTOLEMUS Source: PTOLEMUS market forecasts - Note: AVs: Autonomous Vehicles 13
Number of vehicles equipped with autonomous features in Europe (million)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Semi-autonomous vehiclesHighly-autonomous vehiclesFully autonomous vehicles
By 2030, Europe will have 100 million autonomous vehicles
UBI market trends - ADAS
PTOLEMUS
Autonomy will evolve step by steps
• Developments in autonomy will be split by road types
• OEMs are after the most cost effective way to avoid crashes
• They focus on city and interurban
• Drivers risk profiles are not always improved by autonomy
• Driver monitoring required
• Tesla is going faster and further than any other OEMs
• …while still in BETA
14
They said level 2 meant “feet off”!
UBI market trends - ADAS
PTOLEMUS
Autonomy will evolve step by steps
• Developments in autonomy will be split by road types
• OEMs are after the most cost effective way to avoid crashes
• They focus on city and interurban
• Drivers risk profiles are not always improved by autonomy
• Driver monitoring required
• Tesla is going faster and further than any other OEMs
• …while still in BETA
15
We can all learn a lot from each of the Tesla crashes
UBI market trends - ADAS
PTOLEMUS 23
Conclusion
• Insurance is about to change with less accidents and shift in liability
• Effectively predicting risks using Big Data is the key differentiator
• New devices require successful value proposition
• Car manufacturers partnership will take time and efforts
• Connected mobility services are a source of data but can also transform your business
Thank you!
Insurer will need to look outside the blackbox for find data
PTOLEMUS Consulting Group
S t r a t e g i e s f o r M o b i l e C o m p a n i e s
For more information, contact Thomas Hallauer at [email protected]
Brussels - Chicago - Paris - London - Moscow - Hannover - Milan - Boston
www.ptolemus.com