The Immigration Fight War Room Slides
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The Immigration Fight 11 December 2014 War Room
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Transcript of The Immigration Fight War Room Slides
The Immigration Fight11 December 2014
War Room
HiddenLevers War Room
Open Q + A
Macro Coaching
Archived webinars
CE Credit
Idea Generation
Presentation deck
Product UpdatesScenario Updates
Market Update
Demographics Scenarios
The Immigration Fight
Future of US Immigration
The Immigration Fight
HiddenLevers
MARKET UPDATE
Market UpdateCrude Awakening Jobs Explosion
Online retail is Holiday Retail
sources: HiddenLevers, CNN, Financial Times, LA Times, Yahoo Finance
GOP takes Congress
Market Update – Ebola Pandemic
sources: HiddenLevers, Business Insider, Forbes
Macro – geopolitics US + Middle East collude to crush ISIS + Russia
HowOPEC no production cut
US begins exporting oil
Macro Snapshot – Crude Awakening
-45%
Macro – economics USD strongest in 5 years
20% more US production15% less consumption
Millennials + Boomers driving less
+10%
Macro Snapshot
A few more danger signs, including yield curve, Shiller P/E, and bond spreads. The almighty dollar continues to crush all comers – at what point is this bad for US?
Don’t cross the red line
DEMOGRAPHICS SCENARIOSHiddenLevers
healthy population pyramid
US population pyramid (2014)
USA Demographics 101
sources: HiddenLevers, CIA World Factbook, US Census Bureau
GOOD: Successful Immigration Reform
source: HiddenLevers,
GOP + President move to merit system
rhetoric centers on skilled labor
US educated foreigners stay
in US
private job creation increases
short term GDP positively impacted
long term GDP at 90s levels
more fuel for secular bull
market
BAD: Immigration Gridlock
family ties continue as
basis for immigration
polarized society
status quo maintained due to inaction
illegal immigration
doesn’t abate
source: HiddenLevers, US Citizenship and Immigration Services
short term GDP
eeks along
diluting human capital, not building it
Long term GDP
biggest casualty
UGLY: Baby Bust
aging baby boomers are a
headwind
negative labor force growth
negative population growth + GDP decline
mirroringEurope + Japan
source: HiddenLevers, Economist
young people leave for
opportunity elsewhere
Scenario: US Demographic Shift Successful immigration reform builds US human capital, driving GDP growth to 90s level.
Gridlock = status quo, where illegal and family-oriented immigration continues, without major benefit.
If US population begins to backslide like Europe, malaise will set in. As in Japan, QE can’t fix – population growth needed.
GoodSuccessful
Reform
BadGridlock
UglyBaby Bust
HiddenLevers
THE IMMIGRATION FIGHT
$
US Immigration: Global Perspective
sources: World Bank GDP, World Bank Pop, HiddenLevers Analysis
Population growth is positively correlated (+0.3) with GDP growth – it’s difficult to grow GDP when population is dying or leaving
Nigeria
Philippines
United St
ates
China
German
ySp
ain
-2-1012345678
GDP Growth (%)Pop Growth (%)
Population Growth / GDP Impacts:
• Raises consumption• Improves worker /
retiree ratio• Builds human
capital• Global deflation
debunks limits to growth theories
US Immigration: Current Picture
sources: US Dept of Homeland Security, US Census Bureau, TD Economics
2004-20141m new immigrants / year
33% of population increase
60% of labor force growth
Big 5 states receive 60%
CANY FL TXNJ
2014-2024Adult population all be over 55 years old
Fastest growing age segment: 70-74
54% of immigrants are age 25-54
US Immigration: Impact on Economy
Population Growth drives 40% of GDP Growth(1% per year)
Population Group Total Addition
New Immigrants 1 Million
Births to Foreign-Born Women 1 Million
Total Population Growth (2013) 2.3 Million
=> 80% of population growth due to immigrants
sources: Census, CNN, Reuters, Pew Research, Time, St. Louis Fed
Immigration to soon account for 100% of pop growth
US Immigration: Obama Executive Order
sources: Washington Post
Legal reprieve to 3.7 million illegals with US citizen children, must be in USA for 5 years
Immigrants who came as children can apply for deportation deferral. Now immigrants over 30 qualify.
Visa facilitation for who invest in USA
Visa facilitation for anyone pursuing science / tech / engineering / math degrees
NO expansion of HI-B visa program
NO ACA coverage for new legals
NO visas for migrant workers
3.7 million made legal
6.2 million illegals left
HiddenLevers
FUTURE OF US IMMIGRATION
IMMIGRATION: Congressional Action
sources: Migration Policy, Fox News
GOP now has majority, still using minority tactics to stall executive order.
- Homeland Security funding only to Feb 2015, rest of budget is Sept 2015
- Die Hards trying to wage battle now, trying to threaten govt shutdown
- Calling Obama actions unconstitutional – they should have beaten him to it.
1. increases GDP (consumption/production)2. family values agenda3. less govt spending (no enforcement)4. secure the Latin vote
No increase in illegal immigrants since 2010
US 1965 Reform + Global Models for Reform
sources: Center for Immigration Studies, TD Bank, Library of Congress
Canada + Australia + UK: • 60%+ merit-based immigration• Points for education, skills in high
demand areas, language fluency• Less temp visas, more “green” cards
1965 Reform:• Opened non-European
immigration• Prioritized family ties• Allowed for merit consideration
(origins of H1-B and other visas)• 41 million legal immigrants in US
today, highest share since 1920
IMMIGRATION: Deflation Antidote
sources: US Census Bureau
Deflation avoided
Malaise a la EU + Japan
IMMIGRATION: Recap
Domestic fertility rate below replacement level
Obama immigration action will stick
new brain drain = next level GDP boostillegal immigration irrelevant
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