The idea behind ECCOObjectives, methodology and main outcome

http://www.co2balance.com/

2010 IEAGHG INTERNATIONAL CCS SUMMER SCHOOLLongyearbyen, Svalbard 22-27 August 2010

Prepared by Dr. Jana P. Jakobsen, Senior Research Scientist, SINTEF Energy Research

1

Presented by Dr. Mona J. Mølnvik, Chief Scientist, SINTEF Energy Research

OutlineOutline ECCO objectives

Framing the problem

ECCO strategy− Scenario− Case− Tool

ECCO structure

Main outcomes

2

ECCO - Overall objectivejThe main objective of ECCO is to facilitate robust strategic decision making regarding early and futurestrategic decision making regarding early and future implementation of CO2 value chains in the face of uncertainty. y

ECCO should provide recommendations enabling cost-effective use of CO being produced from zero emissioneffective use of CO2 being produced from zero-emission power plants and other industries in Europe by exploring the opportunities and challenges of CO2 for EOR/EGR in pp g 2the context of the value chain.

3

Framing the problemFraming the problem

1. What are the questions?q

2. How can we address these questions?

3. What competence, methodology and tools do we need for that?we need for that?

4

1. What are the questions?

Is there enough CO2available for EOR?

What modification will be needed at the platform? How will investment

models affect CCS economics?

Will it be commercially interestingto implement CCS for EOR?

How the price of gas affects the economics?

Will CCS be accepted

CCS economics?

How the price of oil affects the economics?

Will CCS be accepted by public? Will the wellhead be overheated?

How will offshore CO2 Will CO leakage occur?

How to ensure continuous supply of CO ?

How the price of CO2 quota affects the economics?

How will offshore CO2processing affect CCS?

Will CO2 leakage occur?

supply of CO2?

How the price of electricity Which parts of the chain

are most costly?

Which parts of the chain are technologically critical?

Is there need for governmental

affects the economics? are most costly?

Will hydrates form?

How will CO2 quality affect the equipment/

5

Is there need for governmental engagement?

How will CO2 quality affect the equipment/operations along the chain?

2. How can we address these questions?

Politicaland

Businesseconomy

regulatory

•political focus on Market

economy

economy• investments

models• discount rates

Technology•availability •price

ffCO2 handling•international agreements

•legal framework

•price profiles:•oil•gas

• cash flow• NPV analysis• ownerships

risk

•efficiency

legal framework•public accept •CO2 quota market mechanisms

g•electricity•steel

•CO2 quota

• risk

Infrastructure/logistics•other incentives•Governmental engagement

•investments

2 q•other projects/ investments

g•CCS chain design•Matching sources and sinks in capacity and timeOptimizing the infrastructureinvestments

•risks•infrastructure

•Optimizing the infrastructure•Ownership

6

2. How can we address these questions?

“semi" data qualitative/

“Soft” qualitative data “Hard" quantitative data qualitative/quantitative

CScenarios analysis

Political decisions

Simulation with the tool

Evaluation of NPV

Case studies

Political decisionsPublic acceptance

Technology developmentEnergy demand

Evaluation of NPVCash flows

for a particular CO2 chain characterized by

TranslateScenario storylinesEnergy demand

Economic growth characterized by

specific infrastructure design and

l f t

storylines into

quantitative parameters values of parametersparametersfor the tool

7

3 What competence and methods do we need?3. What competence and methods do we need?

Scenario analysis Scenario analysis Case studies Techno economical tool Techno-economical tool

− Technical proxy models− Business economicalBusiness economical

models for chain componentssource/transport/sink

− Optimization routines− Optimization routines− Risk analysis

8

1. Scenario – storylines defining the environmentECCO Strategy

2. Case study – defining chain options

CO2

3 Economic analysis profit vs costs

Oil/GasEl t i it COCO

3. Economic analysis – profit vs. costs

Oil/Gas

Power plant

Platform EOR/EGR

Electricity CO2emissions

CO2emissions4. Case study – evaluating

options & recommendations

CO2 capture

CO2 conditioning

CO2 transport

CO2 injection

9

Gas CAPEX/OPEX

SP1 ECCO dissemination and training

SP0 Management and co-ordination

SP2 CCS analysis and recommendations

SP1 ECCO dissemination and training

WP 2.3Strategies for implementation of

CO2 value chains

WP 2.1Envisaging CCS

in Europe by 2020

WP 2.2Formulation of

CCS case studies

SP3 CO2 value chain methodology and tool development

WP 3 1 CO l h i WP 3 4 I l i dWP 3.1 CO2 value chain assessment tool

WP 3.4 Implementation and simulation of CCS cases

SP4 Reservoir technology for EOR/EGRWP 3 2 Global parameters and market

WP 3.3 Techno-economic models for CO2 chain components WP 4 2 EOR/EGR t ti l

WP 4.1 Techno-economic strategies for optimal CO2 injection

SP4 Reservoir technology for EOR/EGRWP 3.2 Global parameters and market models

CO2 chain components WP 4.2 EOR/EGR potential with CO2 injection

WP 4.3 Integration of aquifersinto CO infrastructureECCO Structure

10

into CO2 infrastructure

Scenarios - storylines defining the fenvironment for the case studies

Scramble Decision makers focus on the

need to secure energy forneed to secure energy for themselves and allies

Bilateral deals and agreementsE i t l li t

BlueprintF ti f liti d Environmental policy not

seriously addressed Uncoordinated incentives

Formation of coalitions and focus on energy security and sustainability

Patchwork of local standards and technologies

Pro-active actions on climate changes

Local communities take first actions but national governments are forced to harmonize the initiativesShell energy scenarios to 2050

11

Case studies - Base case Exhaust stream containing 5 Mt CO2/year Corresponds to 2x 700 MW GTCC J.P.Jakobsen, G.Tangen, Ø.Nordbø,

and M.J.Mølnvik, Methodology for CO2

EOR storage basecase

Chain Analysis, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 2 (4), 439-447, 2008.

Global assumptions

NG price 0.6 kr/Sm^3

Price oil (offshore) 25 USD/bl

Price CO2 quote 10.0 EUR/tonAquifer storage basecase

Exchange rate Euro 8.5 NOK/EUR

Exchange rates Dollar 6.5 NOK/USDExchange rates Dollar 6.5 NOK/USD

Availability 7885 hr/yr

Di t t 9 %

12

Discount rate 9 %

Case studies - sensitivity analysisCase studies - sensitivity analysis

13

ECCO: Scenario

Tool vision Case Case specificinput

sources and sinks

Flexible Relatively simple Transparent

CCS chain network design Case specificinputs

efficiencyCase specific

inputs

Tool

Transparent Consistent Quality data

Technical parameters

Businesseconomical

efficiencycapacityenergy

consumptionrecovery rate

…

inputs

cost factorsinvestment models

discount rates…

Smart use and modelsparameters and models

Price profiles or models

Financial analysis

Market parameters

or models…

outputNPV cash flow

14

NPV, cash flow

Tool functionalitiesA. Chain network design

oo u ct o a t esg

• Matching sources and sinkin capacity and time

• Optimizing the transport• pipeline optimizationship design

B. Technical parameters and models

Scotland

Tampen

Ri3000 km total Scotland

Tampen

Ri3000 km total

p y

Injection possibility, Case 6

250

• ship design• logistic

CO2

CondenserTreated gasProxy modelsChoose level of detail

C. Market and economical parameters

Market development:D Financial analysis (NPV cash flow)

D kMid England270 k h

Scotland240 km onshore

pipeline

Rim

Ekofisk

offshore multiple pipelines

D kMid England270 k h

Scotland240 km onshore

pipeline

Rim

Ekofisk

offshore multiple pipelines

150

200

250

2 (M

ton/

year

)

CO2 captured case 2CO2 captured case 6CO2 t d 4

DesorberAbsorberIdentify:

Input variablesV l / f CO

Market development: • oil price• gas price• steel price

l P i

Time profiles for analyzed period for each chain module :

D. Financial analysis (NPV, cash flow)OilGas

Electricity CO2 emissionsCO2 emissionsE. Super structuresCCS chain network design

Denmark400 km onshore

pipeline

Friesland280 km onshore

pipeline

270 km onshorepipeline

London

Denmark400 km onshore

pipeline

Friesland280 km onshore

pipeline

270 km onshorepipeline

London 0

50

100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

Amou

nt C

O CO2 captured case 4EOR injection possibility

Raw GasHX

• Volume/mass of CO2

Parameters• Capture efficiency

• el. Price• CO2 quota price

Business economical:

for each chain module :• CAPEX • OPEX

CO2 capture

CO2 conditioning

CO2 transport

CO2 injection

EOR/ storagePlant

OptimizationSensitivity analysisRisk analysisD i i ki

Technical parameters and models

Businesseconomical parameters

Ruhr areaHolland Ruhr areaHolland1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

Year ReboilerFlash

p y• Energy consumption• investments models

• cost parametersGas CAPEX/OPEX

Decision making Financial analysis

Market parameters

15

CO2-quota thresholdq

45

30

35

40

/ton)

20

25

30

a pr

ice

(€/

10

15

20

CO2-

quot

0

5

10

EOR- basecase Case 1 (Improvedamine capture)

Case 2 (Oxyfuel) Aquifer -basecase

Case 3 (Improvedmonitoiring)

16

20000Base case EOR

15000

OK

)

Case 1, Improved aminecaptureC 2 O f l

10000

valu

e (M

N Case 2, Oxyfuel

5000

Net

pre

sent

v

020 40 60 80

N

-5000 Oil price ($/bl)

17

Main resultsMain results

ECCO is focused towards the complete CO value chain and will generate ECCO is focused towards the complete CO2 value chain, and will generate results and cause progress beyond state of the art within the following topics

− Methodology for CO2 value chain assessment by means of gy 2 yestablishing scenarios as input for formulation of CCS cases, which are further analysed with the tool.

− CO2 value chain assessment tool that enables transparent and robust analysis of CO value chains The tool will be designed to allow foranalysis of CO2 value chains. The tool will be designed to allow for flexible, demand-driven tailoring

− Reservoir technology for EOR and EGR increasing the ability to predict EOR and EGR profiles and potentials for CO2 injection into European oil

d iand gas reservoirs. − Strategies and recommendations for deployment of CO2 value chain: Main

report: “ECCO Strategies for CO2 value chain deployment”. The report comprises ECCO’s joint strategies and recommendations regarding co p ses CCO s jo s a eg es a d eco e da o s ega d gdeployment of the CO2 infrastructure in the near and mid-term future, liability issues and cross-border regulations, Emission Trading Schemes (ETS), financing schemes, and regime of incentives, and organization of the supply chain.

18

the supply chain.

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

http://www co2balance com/

19

http://www.co2balance.com/