The Human Population:The Human Population:Patterns, Processes, and ProblematicsPatterns, Processes, and ProblematicsLecture #10: Lecture #10: High & Low Fertility CountriesHigh & Low Fertility Countries

Paul SuttonPaul Sutton

psutton@du.edupsutton@du.edu

Department of GeographyDepartment of Geography

University of DenverUniversity of Denver

High Fertility Countries

•Jordan

•India

•Mexico

Jordan: A high Fertility County(about the size of Indiana with 5.1 million people)

Images of Jordan

Downtown Amman

A Bedoin Man

Pedi an Ancient City

Jordan continued…….• Jordan is the country with the highest number of Palestinians in it.

• Somewhat arbitratily created after WWI. Previously part of Ottoman Empire. “Protectorate” of England. Independent in 1946.

• Had land on both sides of the Jordan River but lost it in 1967 attack on Israel

• TFR in 1997 was 4.5; Predicted to be 4.3 in 2003

• Total Population 5.1 million (92% Sunni Muslim)

• Jordan is a small Arab country with inadequate supplies of water and other natural resources such as oil. The Persian Gulf crisis, which began in August 1990, aggravated Jordan's already serious economic problems, forcing the government to stop most debt payments and suspend rescheduling negotiations. Aid from Gulf Arab states, worker remittances, and trade revenues contracted. Refugees flooded the country, producing serious balance-of-payments problems, stunting GDP growth, and straining government resources. The economy rebounded in 1992, largely due to the influx of capital repatriated by workers returning from the Gulf. After averaging 9% in 1992-95, GDP growth averaged only 1.5% during 1996-99. In an attempt to spur growth, King ABDALLAH has undertaken limited economic reform, including partial privatization of some state-owned enterprises and Jordan's entry in January 2000 into the World Trade Organization (WTrO). Debt, poverty, and unemployment are fundamental ongoing economic problems.

Jordan: Population Policy & PerceptionsFertility is high but declining. Nonetheless, the next generation will be

twice as large as this one.

1976 17% of women using contraception. In 1997 that has grown to 36%.

In 1985 40% of men believed God determined family size and opposed contraception. By 1997 86 % of men and women approved of family planning.

Government had no population policy until mid 1990’s. Now it wants to curb growth.

Religious leaders as well as most of the Public believe that family planning and contraception is consistent with the beliefs of Islam.

Anti-family planning sentiment is primarily espoused by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (‘secret weapon’) and less educated rural citizens.

Eco-Environmental disaster possible in the future due to population outstripping water supply, etc.

India: A High Fertility Country(about 1/3 the size of the U.S. with 1 billion people)

Images of India

Taj Majal in Agra

Tourists on Elephants in Jaipur

Varanasi Ritual on the Ganges

More Indian Images

India makes more movies than anyOther nation in the world

Sacred Cow in Varanasi

Rickshaw & Camel

Sikh Guards at Golden Temple

Street Scene Jaipur

India continued…….Background: The Indus Valley civilization, one of the oldest in the world, goes

back at least 5,000 years. Aryan tribes from the northwest invaded about 1500 B.C.; their merger with the earlier inhabitants created classical Indian culture. Arab incursions starting in the 8th century and Turkish in 12th were followed by European traders beginning in the late 15th century. By the 19th century, Britain had assumed political control of virtually all Indian lands. Nonviolent resistance to British colonialism under Mohandas GANDHI and Jawaharlal NEHRU led to independence in 1947. The subcontinent was divided into the secular state of India and the smaller Muslim state of Pakistan. A third war between the two countries in 1971 resulted in East Pakistan becoming the separate nation of Bangladesh. Fundamental concerns in India include the ongoing dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir, massive overpopulation, environmental degradation, extensive poverty, and ethnic strife, all this despite impressive gains in economic investment and output.

Environmental Issues: deforestation; soil erosion; overgrazing; desertification; air pollution from industrial effluents and vehicle emissions; water pollution from raw sewage and runoff of agricultural pesticides; tap water is not potable throughout the country; huge and growing population is overstraining natural resources

India: Population Policy & PerceptionsFertility is dropping but still high in India. TFR has gone from 5.9 to 3 from

1971 to 2001. Total Population of India is just over 1 billion.Northern India more rural and less economically developed than Southern

India and Fertility higher in North (status of women lower in North)Harvard School of Public Health attempted to reduce Fertility in the state of

the Punjab from 1954-1960. Complete failure. Typical of many attempts to reduce fertility in India.

Desire for sons a big contributor to high fertility in India. Greater equality of the sexes in the southern states contributing to fertility decline there.

The state of Kerala, India has had great success in reducing fertility via long term public policy that encourages a Marxist-style economic development program.

Indian government sees population growth as a problem and encourages family planning and population growth control. (45% now use contraception of one form or another)

Legal age of marriage for women changed from 15 to 18 to reduce population growth. Indira Ghandi’s anti-natalist policies ousted her from power

Fertility decline is starting in the upper classes and trickling down.

Mexico: A high Fertility CountryBackground: The site of advanced Amerindian civilizations, Mexico came under Spanish rule for three centuries before achieving independence early in the 19th century. A devaluation of the peso in late 1994 threw Mexico into economic turmoil, triggering the worst recession in over half a century. The nation continues to make an impressive recovery. Ongoing economic and social concerns include low real wages, underemployment for a large segment of the population, inequitable income distribution, and few advancement opportunities for the largely Amerindian population in the impoverished southern states.

Images of Mexico

More Images of Mexico

Mexico CityClear day Mexico City

Somewhat PollutedMexico City

Bad Day

Guanajuato, Mexico

Mexico Continued….• Total Population: 107 million• 11th most populous nation in the world• Fertility Rate did not go down until the 1960’s• TFR has gone from over 6 to 2.9 in the last 50 years• Some of the Mexico’s fertility is sent to the U.S. via

immigration• President Luis Echeverria was strong Pro-Natalist but changed

his tune in 1974 and made contraception legal and available.• Environmental Issues: natural fresh water resources scarce

and polluted in north, inaccessible and poor quality in center and extreme southeast; raw sewage and industrial effluents polluting rivers in urban areas; deforestation; widespread erosion; desertification; serious air pollution in the national capital and urban centers along US-Mexico border

• Abortion is still illegal in Mexico.

Low Fertility Countries

• England

• Japan

• Canada

• The United States

England

size:Slightly smaller

than Oregon

Population60 Million

England continued…• Background: Great Britain, the dominant industrial and maritime power of the 19th century,

played a leading role in developing parliamentary democracy and in advancing literature and science. At its zenith, the British Empire stretched over one-fourth of the earth's surface. The first half of the 20th century saw the UK's strength seriously depleted in two World Wars. The second half witnessed the dismantling of the Empire and the UK rebuilding itself into a modern and prosperous European nation. As one of five permanent members of the UN Security Council, a founding member of NATO, and of the Commonwealth, the UK pursues a global approach to foreign policy; it currently is weighing the degree of its integration with continental Europe. A member of the EU, it chose to remain outside of the European Monetary Union for the time being. Constitutional reform is also a significant issue in the UK. Regional assemblies with varying degrees of power opened in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland in 1999.

• Environmental Issues: Continues to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (has met Kyoto Protocol target of a 12.5% reduction from 1990 levels and hopes to reduce even more); small particulate emissions, largely from vehicular traffic, remain a problem; solid waste continues to rise and recycling is very limited

• Ethnic Groups: English 81.5%, Scottish 9.6%, Irish 2.4%, Welsh 1.9%, Ulster 1.8%, West Indian, Indian, Pakistani, and other 2.8%

Images of England

Historical Population Patterns in England

• Industrial Revolution started in England. However; it wasn’t until 2nd half of 19th century that real wages went up and drove down fertility.

• During Malthus’ time inflation & job insecurity ruled the day. Birth rates low at this time

• By 1850 economic conditions improved and initial response was a rise in birth rate. This was followed by a long run decline.

• “The availabe historical evidence suggests that the late marriage regime of early modern Britain entailed systematic sexual restrain among young adults up to their mid-20s, the point at which marriage could be realistically anticipated. A sexual culture of this sort migh lend itself to restraint after marriage, as well, if and when the need arose.”

England’s Demographic

Transition

Contemporary Population Situation in England

• England like most of the rest of Europe with a below replacement fertility level.

• Aging Population presents many problems associated with dependency ratio changes.

• English have desired fertility just above replacement but reality of women working and raising children makes actual fertility below replacement.

• This is particularly pronounced in Southern Europe where women bear the double whammy of working and raising children (see very low fertility in Spain and Italy)

• In 1800 TFR = 5.6 Today TFR = 1.7

JapanSize: slightly smaller than California

Population: 127 Million

Japan Continued….• Background: While retaining its time-honored culture, Japan rapidly absorbed

Western technology during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. After its devastating defeat in World War II, Japan recovered to become the second most powerful economy in the world and a staunch ally of the US. While the emperor retains his throne as a symbol of national unity, actual power rests in networks of powerful politicians, bureaucrats, and business executives. The economy experienced

a major slowdown in the 1990s following three decades of unprecedented growth.

• Environmental Issues: air pollution from power plant emissions results in acid rain; acidification of lakes and reservoirs degrading water quality and threatening aquatic life; Japan is one of the largest consumers of fish and tropical timber, contributing to the depletion of these resources in Asia and elsewhere

• Ethnic groups: Japanese 99.4%, Korean 0.6% (1999)

• Total fertility rate: 1.41 children born/woman (2001 est.)

• Net migration rate: 0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2001 est.)

Images of Japan

Historical Population Patterns in Japan

• 19th century under Tokugawa Shogunate Japan developed isolated, self-sufficient economy based on commerce. (Similar to but independent from Europe)

• Economic Development kicked up after Meiji Restoration between 1878 and 1900.

• By 1920 birth and death rates dropped. • Fertility controlled by abortion and condom• Population grew anyway, pro-natalist Government• TFR 4.5 in 1947 dropped to 2.0 by 1957• 1950 20% couples used contraception, 60% now (1990’s)• Fertility high in year of Dragon, low in ‘Fiery Horse’ (1966)

• Abortion rate high in Japan, The Pill only legal in 1999• Women bear brunt of child rearing may be cause of low

fertility now

CanadaSize: slightly larger than U.S.

Population: 32 million

Canada continued…….• Background: A land of vast distances and rich natural resources, Canada became a

self-governing dominion in 1867 while retaining ties to the British crown. Economically and technologically the nation has developed in parallel with the US, its neighbor to the south across an unfortified border. Its paramount political problem continues to be the relationship of the province of Quebec, with its

French-speaking residents and unique culture, to the remainder of the country. • Environment - current issues: air pollution and resulting acid rain severely

affecting lakes and damaging forests; metal smelting, coal-burning utilities, and vehicle emissions impacting on agricultural and forest productivity; ocean waters becoming contaminated due to agricultural, industrial, mining, and forestry activities

• Ethnic groups: British Isles origin 28%, French origin 23%, other European 15%, Amerindian 2%, other, mostly Asian, African, Arab 6%, mixed background 26%

• Total fertility rate: 1.6 children born/woman (2001 est.)

• Net migration rate: 6.13 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2001 est.)

Images of Canada

Historical Population Patterns in Canada• Canada not a carbon-copy of U.S. Demographically• Fertility generally higher in Canada than U.S.• Canada more multi-cultural than U.S. • Quebec fertility was higher for a long time than dropped

very rapidly from 4 in 1956 to 1.4 in 1986• Canadian Fertility decline preceded U.S. by about a

decade• Canada’s baby boom started later & spiked higher• Abortion legalized in Canada 4 years before in U.S.• Surgical Sterilization rates very high in Canada

The United States

Background: Britain's American colonies broke with the mother country in 1776 and were recognized as the new nation of the United States of America following the Treaty of Paris in 1783. During the 19th and 20th centuries, 37 new states were added to the original 13 as the nation expanded across the North American continent and acquired a number of overseas possessions. The two most traumatic experiences in the nation's history were the Civil War (1861-65) and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Buoyed by victories in World Wars I and II and the end of the Cold War in 1991, the US remains the world's most powerful nation-state. The economy is marked by steady growth, low unemployment and inflation, and rapid advances in technology

Size: About the size of the United States

Population: ~300 Million

Images of the United States

The United States continued…..• Area - comparative: about one-half the size of Russia; about three-tenths

the size of Africa; about one-half the size of South America (or slightly larger than Brazil); slightly larger than China; about two and one-half times the size of Western Europe

• Environment - current issues: air pollution resulting in acid rain in both the US and Canada; the US is the largest single emitter of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels; water pollution from runoff of pesticides and fertilizers; very limited natural fresh water resources in much of the western part of the country require careful management; desertification

• Total fertility rate: 2.06 children born/woman (2001 est.

• Net migration rate: 3.5 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2001 est.) • Ethnic groups: white 83.5%, black 12.4%, Asian 3.3%, Amerindian 0.8% (1992)

note:  a separate listing for Hispanic is not included because the US Census Bureau considers Hispanic to mean a person of Latin American descent (especially of Cuban, Mexican, or Puerto Rican origin) living in the US who may be of any race or ethnic group (white, black, Asian, etc.)

The United States continued…Economy - overview: The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the

world, with a per capita GDP of $36,200. In this market-oriented economy, private individuals and business firms make most of the decisions, and government buys needed goods and services predominantly in the private marketplace. US business firms enjoy considerably greater flexibility than their counterparts in Western Europe and Japan in decisions to expand capital plant, lay off surplus workers, and develop new products. At the same time, they face higher barriers to entry in their rivals' home markets than the barriers to entry of foreign firms in US markets. US firms are at or near the forefront in technological advances, especially in computers and in medical, aerospace, and military equipment, although their advantage has narrowed since the end of World War II. The onrush of technology largely explains the gradual development of a "two-tier labor market" in which those at the bottom lack the education and the professional/technical skills of those at the top and, more and more, fail to get comparable pay raises, health insurance coverage, and other benefits. Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households. The years 1994-2000 witnessed solid increases in real output, low inflation rates, and a drop in unemployment to below 5%. Long-term problems include inadequate investment in economic infrastructure, rapidly rising medical costs of an aging population, sizable trade deficits, and stagnation of family income in the lower economic groups. Growth weakened in the fourth quarter of 2000; growth for the year 2001 almost certainly will be substantially lower than the strong 5% of 2000. The outlook for 2001 is further clouded by the continued economic

problems of Japan, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, and many other countries.

Historical Population Patterns of the United States

• Colonial America had TFR of around 8. Higher than any European country ever had. (scared Malthus)

• CBR in 1800 about 55. Higher than any country today. Rapid decline of fertility started about 1850. Hit bottom during the 1930’s depression.

• Motivation for lowered fertility associated with secularization (happened faster in more tolerant Protestant denominations: Congregationalists, Presbyterian, Quakers, Unitarians, & Universalists)

• Mechanism for fertility reduction: coitus interuptus, abortion, and extended breast-feeding, later age of marriage

More U.S. population history…• The Depression showed record low fertility

levels brought about by clandestine use of the diaphragm, condom, withdrawl, & abstinence.

• Condoms legal to sell because they were ‘prophylactic’ (prevented disease) Not diaphragm

• The Baby Boom