The History of the FutureThe History of the Future

6: In the Shadow of the Bomb6: In the Shadow of the Bomb

The Shadow of the BombThe Shadow of the Bomb

Constant fear early 1950s – late 1980sConstant fear early 1950s – late 1980s Civilization could be wiped out at any timeCivilization could be wiped out at any time

Unusual character of Cold WarUnusual character of Cold War Long, relatively static confrontationLong, relatively static confrontation Civilians and cities as prime targetsCivilians and cities as prime targets Wove itself into politics, industry, technologyWove itself into politics, industry, technology

Nuclear technology influenced entire Nuclear technology influenced entire cultureculture Impact clear in many books and films of periodImpact clear in many books and films of period

HiroshimaHiroshima

One of two bombs dropped on JapanOne of two bombs dropped on Japan Uranium based bombUranium based bomb 4 tons, equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT4 tons, equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT

About 140,000 people killed by end About 140,000 people killed by end 19451945 Medical effects closely studiedMedical effects closely studied

Decision to use remains controversial Decision to use remains controversial among historiansamong historians

A Triumph for SF?A Triumph for SF?

Campbell exultant on hearing newsCampbell exultant on hearing news Best case for predictive power of SFBest case for predictive power of SF

Radiation & atoms famous since early 1900sRadiation & atoms famous since early 1900s Atomic power, weapons both predicted by 1910sAtomic power, weapons both predicted by 1910s

Campbell seized on in 1930sCampbell seized on in 1930s Promoted idea to his readers and writersPromoted idea to his readers and writers Incorporated realistic details (isotopes, etc)Incorporated realistic details (isotopes, etc)

SF readers well familiar with by 1945SF readers well familiar with by 1945

Atomic Ubiquity circa 1940Atomic Ubiquity circa 1940

Asimov – Foundation stories (early Asimov – Foundation stories (early 1940s)1940s) Reactor on a key chainReactor on a key chain Atomic spaceships, shields, carsAtomic spaceships, shields, cars

Heinlein – Future History storiesHeinlein – Future History stories Atomic power for spaceshipsAtomic power for spaceships Atomic power stationAtomic power station

Development of Nuclear Development of Nuclear WeaponsWeapons

Germans discover fission in 1939Germans discover fission in 1939 Einstein & colleagues win FDR backingEinstein & colleagues win FDR backing

Manhattan Project launched 1941Manhattan Project launched 1941 First controlled reaction, 1942 (Fermi, Chicago)First controlled reaction, 1942 (Fermi, Chicago) Large scale facilities for uranium, plutoniumLarge scale facilities for uranium, plutonium Bombs designed, built at Los Alamos, NMBombs designed, built at Los Alamos, NM

First test, “Trinity” in 1945 (secret)First test, “Trinity” in 1945 (secret) Public tests in 1946 impress the worldPublic tests in 1946 impress the world

Nuclear ProliferationNuclear Proliferation

Strategic Air Command created 1946Strategic Air Command created 1946 300 atomic weapons, 250 bombers by 1950300 atomic weapons, 250 bombers by 1950 ““Massive retaliation” strategy by late 1940sMassive retaliation” strategy by late 1940s

Soviets explode own bomb in 1949Soviets explode own bomb in 1949 Eisenhower oversees major US buildupEisenhower oversees major US buildup

Major buildup, many new technologiesMajor buildup, many new technologies SAC target list grows to 1,400 initial targetsSAC target list grows to 1,400 initial targets

Hydrogen BombHydrogen Bomb Development authorized in Development authorized in

19501950 Energy from fusionEnergy from fusion Set off by conventional atomic Set off by conventional atomic

bombbomb Yields of megatons – no Yields of megatons – no

theoretical limittheoretical limit Usable weapon by 1954Usable weapon by 1954

Followed by long range Followed by long range bomber, 1955bomber, 1955 Atlas (first ICBM) deployed 1958Atlas (first ICBM) deployed 1958 Polaris submarine deployed 1960Polaris submarine deployed 1960

Fear of Soviet Fear of Soviet DevelopmentsDevelopments

Desire to maintain clear leadDesire to maintain clear lead Massive investment in new technologiesMassive investment in new technologies U2 spy plane, satellite imagingU2 spy plane, satellite imaging

Paranoia leads to overestimatesParanoia leads to overestimates Imaginary “missile gap” helps get Kennedy Imaginary “missile gap” helps get Kennedy

electedelected Soviet missiles actually unable to hit US in 1960Soviet missiles actually unable to hit US in 1960 In 1962 US has 10:1 advantage in deliverable In 1962 US has 10:1 advantage in deliverable

bombsbombs Elaborate defensive systemsElaborate defensive systems

SAGE in late 1950sSAGE in late 1950s Attempts to build AMB (anti-missile) systemAttempts to build AMB (anti-missile) system

Film InterludeFilm Interlude

““Duck and Cover”Duck and Cover” 1951 Civil Defense propaganda film1951 Civil Defense propaganda film For school childrenFor school children

Stars “Burt the Turtle”Stars “Burt the Turtle” ““Sometimes the bomb might explode without Sometimes the bomb might explode without

any warning... Be like Burt...”any warning... Be like Burt...” ““Going to school on a beautiful spring day. But Going to school on a beautiful spring day. But

no matter where they go or what they do they no matter where they go or what they do they always try to remember what to do if the atom always try to remember what to do if the atom bomb explodes right then.”bomb explodes right then.”

““Stay covered until the danger is over.”Stay covered until the danger is over.”

Nuclear StrategyNuclear Strategy

Earliest idea was devastating, total Earliest idea was devastating, total strikestrike ““MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction)MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction) Targeting major cities & industrial sitesTargeting major cities & industrial sites This lacks credibilityThis lacks credibility

Studies of “limited nuclear war” in 1950sStudies of “limited nuclear war” in 1950s Henry KissingerHenry Kissinger RAND Corporation, Herman KahnRAND Corporation, Herman Kahn

Shift alluded to in Miller bookShift alluded to in Miller book

Nuclear Strategy IINuclear Strategy II

US could not renounce “first use”US could not renounce “first use” Nuclear deterrent to Soviet forces in EuropeNuclear deterrent to Soviet forces in Europe Controversial at home & abroadControversial at home & abroad

Tricky political situationTricky political situation Emphasis on limited strikes and Emphasis on limited strikes and

“counterforce” capabilities makes threat “counterforce” capabilities makes threat more credible (technology improves)more credible (technology improves)

But as policy suggests US plans to strike first But as policy suggests US plans to strike first & casts doubts on deterrence& casts doubts on deterrence

All out attack remains official plan into All out attack remains official plan into 1970s1970s

Nuclear PowerNuclear Power

Initial expectations unrealisticInitial expectations unrealistic Early experiments by governmentEarly experiments by government Need reactors to build bombs, but inefficientNeed reactors to build bombs, but inefficient

1954 Atomic Energy Act1954 Atomic Energy Act Opens to commercial developmentOpens to commercial development Atomic Energy Commission to regulateAtomic Energy Commission to regulate Also charged with weapons developmentAlso charged with weapons development

Slow at first, booms in 1960sSlow at first, booms in 1960s Reactors rapidly scaled upReactors rapidly scaled up

Spreading Atomic PowerSpreading Atomic Power

Atomic explosions for peaceful purposesAtomic explosions for peaceful purposes ““Project Ploughshare”, late 1950s onwardProject Ploughshare”, late 1950s onward Construction projectsConstruction projects Space flightSpace flight HeatingHeating

US exported reactor technology to alliesUS exported reactor technology to allies ““Atoms for Peace” UN speech, Eisenhower, 1953Atoms for Peace” UN speech, Eisenhower, 1953 Recipients include India, Pakistan – use for Recipients include India, Pakistan – use for

bombsbombs

Nuclear SF in the 1950sNuclear SF in the 1950s

Interest in Nuclear Power quickly Interest in Nuclear Power quickly fadesfades More of an area for thriller writersMore of an area for thriller writers Some attention to fusion powerSome attention to fusion power

Focus shifts to nuclear warFocus shifts to nuclear war Generally aftermath – often pastoralGenerally aftermath – often pastoral Many stories about mutation, radiationMany stories about mutation, radiation

Post-Holocaust FictionPost-Holocaust Fiction

Depopulated future evokes pre-Depopulated future evokes pre-industrial pastindustrial past

Not always atomicNot always atomic Plague - Plague - Earth AbidesEarth Abides, George R. , George R.

Stewart, 1949Stewart, 1949 Plants – Plants – Day of the TriffidsDay of the Triffids, John , John

Wyndham, 1951Wyndham, 1951 Popular through 1960sPopular through 1960s

Atomic MutationAtomic Mutation

Very popular in 1950s Very popular in 1950s fictionfiction Mutation theme predates Mutation theme predates

atomic elementatomic element Generally persecuted; Generally persecuted;

frequently telepathicfrequently telepathic Present in serious fictionPresent in serious fiction

including including CanticleCanticle Handy device for monster Handy device for monster

filmsfilms of which Them! is the finest of which Them! is the finest

exampleexample

Film InterludeFilm Interlude

““About Fallout”About Fallout” Hold this one in mind as you read Hold this one in mind as you read

CanticleCanticle