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Thursday,September17,2015

Now,hunkerdownBytheearlyhoursofFridaymorning,wewillcometoknowwhethertheUnitedStatesFederalReservehasliftedofffromitsnearzerointerestratesofthelastseveralyears,ornot.Ifitdoes,thenthiswillbethecommence(start,)ofoneofthemostimportantregime(rule,)shiftsinglobalfinancialconditionsinalongtime.Itwouldbeamistaketounderestimateitsimpactonemergingmarket(EM)economies,includingIndia.

Byitself,theactofraisingthepolicyinterestratefromthecurrentnearzerolevelisunlikelytobeproblematic,eventhoughavastswathe(strip,)oftheglobalmarketexpectstheFedtodelaythehike.Indeed,onecouldwellseethemarket

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heaveacollectivesighofreliefasamajorglobaluncertaintyisresolved,andbecausetheratehikeislikelytobeaccompaniedbyanassurancefromtheFedthatthenormalisationwouldbeadeliberatelyslowprocess.Bystartingnow,thecommitmentoftheFedtomovegradually(slow,)wouldbecomethatmuchmoreplausible(credible,).Butbeyondthat,itdoesnotreallymattermuchifthetimingoftheinitialratehikeisshiftedaroundbyafewmonths.

FarmoreimportantiswhethertheFedwillhavetheluxuryofdeliveringonitspromisedgradualnormalisation.CentraltosuchacommitmentistheFedsbeliefthatthepotential(capacity)growthrateoftheUSeconomyis2.2percent.Toachievethiscapacitygrowthrate,USlabourproductivityhastosurge(riserapidly,)inthecomingyearsfromthesubdued(Soft,)levelsofthelastfouryears.Ifproductivityrisesonlymodestly,aslookslikelyintheabsenceofmajortechnologicalbreakthroughsorstructuralreform,thenpotentialgrowthcouldfallwellshortofthe2.2percentmark.Inthiscase,evenwithmoderateGDPgrowth,theexcesscapacitycoulddisappearmuchmorequicklythanexpected,pushingupcosts,particularlywages.Withtheeconomyreachingtheinflectionpointinwagesearlierthanexpected,theFedcouldbeforcedtotightenmoreaggressively,resultinginasharprealignmentinUSinterestrates.Admittedly,thisisnotanimmediaterisk,butacoupleofsharpspikesinwagesandthemarketwillbringforwardtherealignment.Thatwouldbeamajorjolt(shock,)toglobalfinancialconditions,hurtingallEMeconomies,includingIndia,perhapsquiteseverely.

Putdifferently,evenifoneuncertaintyisresolvedthisweek,anotherwouldremainforsometimetocome.CancountrieslikeIndiadefendagainstsuchashock?Muchhasbeenmadeofthe$355billionforeignreservesofIndia,butevenChinasmammoth(large,)warchestofover$3.5trillioninreservesisntaneffectivedeterrent(prevention,),asrecenteventshaveshown.Thus,Indiawillneedtobepreparedtolosesubstantialreservesifitplanstodefendtherupeethroughforeignexchangeinterventions.ThealternativeistomatchtheriseinUSinterestratesbyraisingdomesticinterestratesapossibilitythatisnotevenontheradarofeitherthemarketorIndiaspolicymakers.

AddingtotheuncertaintyistheslowdowninChinaandtheattendantadverseimpactonglobaldemand.Weseemtobetakingsolace(comfort,)fromthefactthatIndiassmalldirectexportexposureprovidesprotectionfrombeinghurtbythedeclineinChinesegrowth,forgettingthatmorethan25percentofthe

2015(382)September

(35)Now,hunke

rdown

ReformeludesUNSecurityCouncil

Smallleapforwardinchildhealth

Sowhosbeingriskaverse?

Stateofbusiness

NotesfromSingapore

WhySupremeCourtjudgmentonAadhaarcallsforan...

Landscapeoftheindividual

WhyMaharashtraisunderstress

FifthColumn:

countrysexportsaredestinedforcommodityexportingcountries(WestAsia,RussiaandLatinAmerica),allofwhichhavebeenseverelyaffectedbytheChinaslowdown.Whentheworldssecondlargestgrowthenginestalls,itisamistaketobelievethat,inthisinterconnectedworld,Indiawillsomehowcomeoutunscathed(unharmed,)andsofar,exportdatasuggeststhatithasnt.

RelatedtotheslowdowninChinaisthedeclineincommoditypriceswhich,inthecaseofoil,hasbeencomplementedbyariseinglobalsupplyfollowingthethawingofthetradeembargo(barrier,)onIran.This,onpaper,shouldhavebeenanunambiguous(clearly,)positiveforcommodityimportingcountrieslikeIndia,thankstodeclininginflationboostinghouseholdrealincomesandfallinginputcostsraisingcorporatemargins.Yet,neithercorporateinvestmentnorhouseholdconsumptionhasincreasedcommensurate()tothemassivefallinoilandothercommodityprices.Instead,bothcorporationsandhouseholdshaveincreasedtheirsavings(asreflectedinthedeclineinIndiascurrentaccountdeficit)areactionmoreconsistentwithrisinguncertaintythangoodfortune.

Sowhatshouldpolicymakersdoinsuchuncertaintimes?Theprudent(wise,)coursewouldbetohunkerdown(takeshelter,)andpreservestability,awaitinggreaterclarity.ratherthanturntopolicyadventurism.WiththesharpdeclineinIndiasinflation,thepressureisonforinterestratestobecutfurther.Theargumentisthatthiswouldboostbothconsumptionandinvestment.Butmoneyisfungible(exchangeable,).

Thegovernmentcaneasilydelivertheequivalentofseveralpercentagepointsofratecutsbypassingonthedeclineinglobalcrudetoretailpumppricesratherthantaxingmostofitaway,asithassofar.Thiswouldbethesaferoption.CuttingdomesticratesinthefaceofFedtighteningunnecessarilyraisesIndiasexternalvulnerability(weakness,).Moreimportantly,ifthealreadyoutsizeddeclineininflationandinputcostshasntinducedeitherhouseholdsorcorporationstoraiseconsumptionorinvestment,wouldafewmorebasispointsofinterestratereductionoritsequivalentchangeanythingmuch?

Theglobaleconomyhasbeenundergoingmultiplestructuralchangessincethe2008crisis,includingunorthodoxpolicyexperiments.Manyofthesechangeshaventfullyruntheircourse.Policymistakesnowcouldturnouttobecostlylater.Hunkeringdownasastrategyisneitherclevernorexciting,butitjustmaybethe

Itstheeconomy,stupid

Thethingwithgold

GDPgrowth:OvertotheRBI

Mumbaimeatban:Getoffthebanwagon

Theyarerefugees,notmigrants

1965,theforgetting

GrossDeflatorProblem

LessonsFromEuropesShores

Cleaningcoalinsteadofwishingitaway

Abitforthestate,abitfortheinvestor

SeventhPay

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ReformeludesUNSecurityCouncilTheadoptionbytheUNGeneralAssembly(UNGA)ofaconsensus(agree,)resolutionforbeginningdiscussionsattheIntergovernmentalNegotiationsGroup(ING)onthebasisofaframeworkdocumenthasbeenhailed(callfor,)ashistoricandpathbreaking,but,inactualfact,theUNhasnotmovedanywhereclosertoanagreementonreform.Theproposalshouldhavebeenroutinelyadopted,comingasitdidfromthepresidentoftheGeneralAssembly.SamKutesa,theoutgoingPresidentoftheGeneralAssemblyhadcirculatedtheframeworkdocumentattheendofJuly2015afterextensiveconsultations,toserveasasoundbasisforthenextstageofconsultationsatthenextsession.Heclaimedthatitwasdevelopedthroughaninclusiveandtransparentprocess,whichincludedwrittensubmissions.

Commissionisnoogre

Abetterdesignforsocialjustice

Alwayscrashinginthesamecar

Somehomeeconomics

Theslump,theopportunity

AcasefortheNetsCtrl+Alt+Del

Afterthedeluge,what?

AcrosstheAisle:Atlast,willwehaveaneconomi...

Beyondthepassfailbinary

Chasingblackmoney,withUNhelp

Gamechangers

T.P.SreenivasanTroublearosewhensomepowerfulstatesandgroupsmadesubmissions,butinsistedthattheirproposalsnotbeincludedintheframeworkdocument.Asaresult,thepresidenthadtopreparehistextintwoparts,onecontainingcollatedviewsofanumberofmemberstatesandanotherreproducingthelettersofothers.

Thedocumentunveiled(revealed,),notforthefirsttime,thatthepositionsofmemberstatesremainedaswideapartasbeforeandthattherewasnotaniota(tiny,)ofhopethatameetingpointcouldbefoundduringthe70thanniversaryandbeyond.

Oppositiontoexpanison

Manycountries,particularlysmallandmiddlepowers,submitteddetailedopinionsoneachofthespecificpointsonwhichideasweresought,suchascategoriesofmembership,veto,regionalrepresentation,sizeoftheenlargedCouncilanditsworkingmethodsandtherelationshipbetweentheSecurityCouncilandtheGeneralAssembly.FranceandtheU.K.madetheirsubmissionsandtheirviewswerereflectedinthedocument.

ThesetbacktothewholeexercisecamefromChina,Russia,theU.S.andsomeothers,includingtheUnitingforConsensusGroup(opponentsofexpansion)whentheyexpressedtheiropinionsinvague(unclear,),butnegativetermsandkeptoutoftheframeworkdocument.ThismeantthattheywouldpreferthenegotiationstocontinueintheIntergovernmentalNegotiationsGroupwithoutatextatasnailspace.

ThesubstanceofthepositionsofChina,RussiaandtheU.S.cameasashocktoIndiaandothers,whohadbelievedthattheyhadthesupportofthesecountriesinoneformoranother.Chinadeclaredthatthetimehadnotcomeforanyseriousnegotiations,butitwouldsupportnecessaryandreasonablereform,withgreaterrepresentationfordevelopingcountries.RussiawasequallyvagueandsupportedanyreasonableoptionofexpandingtheCouncil,butwithoutanychangeintheveto.TheU.S.favouredamodestexpansion,withoutsupportinganyformulaunderconsiderationandnoalterationorexpansionoftheveto.UnlikeFranceandtheU.K.,thesecountriesmadenomentionoftheirsupporttoIndiaasapermanentmember.AlthoughtheU.S.andRussialatersaidthattherewasnochangeintheirpositionofsupporttoIndia,theirwrittensubmissionsrevealedthattheirsupport

Anewedificeforreservations

Mediatrialmostfoul

Smalltowngirl,Doonschoolboy

ChartinganewAsianhistory

TheproblemwithModisTeamIndia

August(59)

July(65)

June(45)

May(44)

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March(40)

February(36)

January(13)

ThethingwithgoldLastweek,the

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hadnopracticalvalue.

Amongthepermanentmembers,FrancewastheclosesttotheIndianposition,favouringtheinclusionofIndia,Brazil,JapanandGermany(G4)andanAfricanrepresentativeaspermanentmembersandexpansionofthenonpermanentcategoryofmembers.Franceevenexpressednoobjectiontothevetopowerbeingextendedtothenewpermanentmembers.TheU.K.supportedG4asthenewpermanentmembers,butwithoutveto.

ThepositionsofChina,RussiaandtheU.S.castagloomontheG4,whichproposedadraftresolutiontoremittheframeworkdocumenttotheING,underitsnewchairman,AmbassadorCourtenayRattrayofJamaica.Chinaspreadarumourthatitwouldseekamendmentstothedraftandevenpressforavote.Butintheend,Chinadecidedtojointheconsensustocommence(start,)textbaseddiscussions,eventhoughithadmadeclearthatthetimewasnotripeforspecificformulations.

Thelatestdecisionofthe69thsessionoftheGeneralAssemblydidnotamounttoanychangeintheimpasseonreformoftheSecurityCouncil,butbroughtsomeclarityastowhowasonwhichside.Italsobecameclearthatanyplantointroduceasubstantialdraftresolutioninthe70thsessionwouldbefutile(waste,x).TheG4oranyothergroupdoesnothavethevotestogetaresolutionadoptedbytheGeneralAssemblyeventopressurisetheSecurityCounciltoconsideraconcreteproposal.ThecompiledviewsintheframeworkdocumentdidnotshowanyconvergenceevenwithinthevariousgroupsoutsidetheP5.AG4diplomattoldmeinNewYorkthattheframeworkdocumentwasnotlikelytoaddanymomentumtothenegotiations.Itwouldonlyensurethatthedebatewouldgoonformanymoreyearswithoutanyresult.Thenumerous(many,)paragraphswithinbracketswillremaininthetextforlong.Theapparent(clear,)progressinmovingtotextbasednegotiationsisillusory.Itisthelackofpoliticalwillthathasinhibitedprogress,notthelackofdraftingskills.

IndiaandtheG4haveexhaustedalltheargumentsinfavourofexpansionandtheyhavetobemoreandmoreinventiveinpromotingtheirproposals.Theyhavealreadymadeacompromiseontheveto,theclaimtowhichwouldbesuspendedforfifteenyearsorso.Thenextstepwillbetoacceptanythinglessthanpermanentmembership,suchasextendednonpermanentterms,subjecttoreelectioneveryfiveyearsormore.Theonlyachievementthattheycanboastofisthesupportof

Unioncabinetintroducedtwoschemesaimedatcurbing(control,)goldimportsinthecountry.Between200910and201...

WhyMaharashtraisunderstressLaxmanSinghRathoreandhisentireteamintheIndianMeteorologicalDepartment(IMD)needtobecomplimentedforgivingussufficientwar...

Mumbaimeatban:GetoffthebanwagonThe

FranceandU.K.,butitcanmeltawayaspartofaP5consensusatveryshortnotice.

G4hassofarmaintainedafaade(showoff,)ofunity,buteachofthemmaybeamenabletobilateraldealsifanyoneofthembecomesaliabilityfortheotherthree.GermanyhasalreadytoneddownitsdemandforpermanentmembershipbecauseofoverrepresentationofEurope.ThismaywellbethemotiveforFranceandU.K.alsotosupportG4.

TheymayfeelthatalimitedexpansionbywayofsomeadditionsnowmaybebetterforEuropethanconfrontingaproposalforathoroughreorganisationoftheSecurityCouncillater.JapanisclearlyaliabilitybecauseoftheopenoppositionbyChina.IndiaandBraziltoohaveoppositionfromtheirregions,butnothingserioustoblocktheirentryintheeventofasettlement.

Indiasclaimtomembership

IndiahasupgradeditsclaimtorightandremainedtheleaderofG4.ButthereisasectionofopinionthatIndiaspositionontheNonProliferationTreaty(NPT)anditsborderdisputeswithPakistanandChinamightbeimpediments(obstacle,hurdle,)toitspermanentmembership.TheIndiaU.S.nucleardealwasexpectedtogivedefacto(real,)recognitiontoIndiasnuclearstatus,butitsnonNPTstatuscameinthewayofitsenteringtheNuclearSuppliersGroup(NSG)andtheMissileTechnologyControlRegime(MTCR).NoamountofextraeffortbyIndiacanresolvetheNPT,PakistanandChinaissuesinahurry.ButtheexpansionoftheSecurityCouncilisnotcontingent(depend,x)onanyactionofomissionorcommissiononthepartofIndiaandsothereisnoparticularpressureonIndiatorelentontheseissues.

Morethan34yearsofstrugglewiththeissueofequitablerepresentationintheSecurityCouncilhasnotbroughtusanyclosertoanexpansionoftheCouncil.AnIndianForeignSecretaryhadonceremarkedthatIndiahadthechoiceofeitheracquiringrealpowerthroughthemanufactureofnuclearweaponsorpursuingillusorypowerbyseekingtobecomeapermanentmemberoftheSecurityCouncil.Havingacquiredrealpower,Indiacouldaswellgiveupthepursuitofillusorypower,hehadsaid.ButinkeepingwiththepresentGovernmentspowerpush,ourquestforpermanentmembershipwillcontinue.Butthebestwecanget,ifatall,maybeasemipermanentstatus,requiringustogetelectedeveryfewyears.

contagion(infection,)ofmeatbansgrippingstateafterstateisproducingafogofmendacious(false,)arguments.Itha...

DecisiondelayedisdefencedeniedEachdaythegovernmentdelaystheimplementationoftheOneRankOnePension(OROP)scheme,ademandthatis42yearsold,itrisksplayin...

Theyarerefugees,notmigrantsEuropeiswitnessingprobablythegreatestmovementof


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AsfortheUNitself,reformoftheSecurityCouncilisanexistentialrequirementfortheorganisation.Ifitresistsallproposalsforchangeintheyearstocome,thereisarealriskoftheUNbeingsidelinedorrivalorganisationstakingoveritsagenda.Therefore,itislikelythatsomechangeswouldbeaccommodatedonthebasisofoneofthetwoalternativesproposedbyKofiAnnaninhisreport,InLargerFreedominMarch2005.Accordingtothisplan,therewouldbenonewpermanentseats,butanewcategoryofeightfouryearrenewabletermseatsandonenewtwoyearnonpermanent(andnonrenewable)seattobedividedamongthevariousregionalgroups.TheplanwouldcontinuetobeunacceptabletoIndiaandsomeothers,butitmightwellbethelowestcommondenominatortobetriedout.ButwhattheUNrequiresisnotafixlikethat,butafundamentalchangetoreflecttherealitiesofthepresentcentury.


Wednesday,September16,2015

peoplesincetheSecondWorldWar.Overthelastseveralmonths,hundredsofthousand...

AcrosstheAisle:Atlast,willwehaveaneconomicagenda?InAugust,therupeehasdepreciatedbyabout3.3percentagainsttheUSdollar.Suchvolatility(instability,)anddeclineinasset...

NotesfromSingaporeTheresultsofthe17thgeneralelectionsofSingapore,whichtookplaceonSeptember11,werearesounding

SmallleapforwardinchildhealthTherecentreleaseofsummaryfindingsfromtheRapidSurveyonChildren(RSOC)hasgeneratedremarkablylittleinterestinthemainstreammedia.ThemainfocusofattentionsofarhasbeentheindifferentperformanceofGujaratinmattersofhealthandnutritionnothingnewthere.Relatedtothis,therehasalsobeensomespeculationaboutthereasonsfortheCentralgovernmentsapparent(clear,)reluctance(unwilling,)toreleasethefindings.Thesubstanceofthefindings,however,haspassedlargelyunnoticed.

Thisisunfortunate,becausethereismuchtolearnfromthesurvey.Infact,RSOCcanberegardedassomesortofsubstituteforafourthNationalFamilyHealthSurvey(NFHS).ItmayberecalledthatthethirdNFHSwasconductedalmosttenyearsago,in200506.ProlongeddelaysinthecompletionofthefourthNFHShavecreatedahugegapinIndiassocialstatistics,evenasallotherSouthAsiancountriesconductedregularnationalhealthandnutritionsurveys.Fortunately,theRSOCsurvey(conductedin201314)seemstobemodelledonNFHS,generatingawealthofhealthandnutritionstatisticsthatcanbeusefullycomparedwiththecorrespondingfindingsfromthethirdNFHS.

Overall,theRSOCfindingslooklikerelativelygoodnews.Theysuggestamarkedimprovementinmanyaspectsofmaternalandchildnutritionbetween200506and201314.Buttheprogressisunevenfairlyrapidinsomefields,slowinothers.

Areasofprogress

Atfirstglance,thebiggestchangerelatestosafedelivery.Theproportionofinstitutionaldeliveriesamongrecentbirthsshotupfrom39percentin200506to79percentin201314,andtheproportionattendedbyaskilledproviderrosefrom47percentto81percent.AtleastpartofthistrendislikelytoreflecttheimpactofJananiSurakshaYojana,includingcashincentivesforinstitutionaldelivery.Thisleapforward,however,hasnotbeenaccompaniedbyageneralbreakthroughinmaternalcare.Forinstance,theproportionofpregnantwomenwhohadatleastthreeantenatalcheckupswasnotmuchhigherin201314(63percent)thanin200506(52percent).Similarly,theproportionwhoconsumedIronandFolicAcidtabletsforatleast90dayswasverylowinbothyears:23percentand24percentrespectively.Eventhesharpincreaseininstitutionaldeliveriesneedstobetaken

triumph(victory,)fortheP...

1965,theforgettingThe1965IndiaPakistanwarcarrieslessonsaboutwhattoexpectfromPakistan,andhowtomanageourinterestsgenerally.Here,weconsider...

A

BRICSvisionfortheInternet?TheBRICSsummitinUfacomesatacrucialjuncture(point,)inIndiasInternetdiplomacy.BRICSleadersaregatheredintheRussiantow...

Cleaningcoalinsteadofwishingit

withapinchofsalt(halfbelieve,):insomeStates,manywomendeliverinhealthcentresforthesakeofcashincentives,withverylimitedrealbenefitsintermsofnatalorpostnatalcare.

Anotherareaofsubstantialprogressisvaccination.Theproportionofchildrenwithavaccinationcardrosefrom38percentin200506to84percentin201314,andvaccinationcoveragerosefrom59to79percentformeasles,55to75percentforDPT3,and44to65percentforfullimmunisation.Evenwiththeseimprovedfigures,Indiahassomeofthelowestchildvaccinationratesintheworld,andlagsfarbehindBangladeshandevenNepal.Butatleastthereisahintofacceleratedprogress,afteranalarmingphaseofnearstagnationinroutineimmunisation.Aswithinstitutionaldeliveries,thispatterncanbeplausibly(believable,)attributedtorecenthealthpolicyinitiatives,suchastheappointmentofAccreditedSocialHealthActivists(ASHAs),whoarenowactivelyinvolvedinimmunisationprogrammesalongwithAnganwadiworkersandAuxiliaryNurseMidwives(ANMs).Quitelikely,theseinitiativescanalsotakecreditforasubstantialimprovementinbreastfeedingpractices:theproportionofchildrenbreastfedwithinanhourofbirthrosefromjust25percentin200506to45percentin201314.

Turningtootherhealthandnutritionindicatorsavailablefromthesesurveys,mostofthempointtomoderateprogressbetween200506and201314morerapidthanbetweenNFHS2andNFHS3(conductedin199899and200506respectively),butnowhereasfastasonewouldhopetoseeinaboomingeconomy.Toillustrate,theproportionofundernourishedchildrendeclinedfrom48to39percentbasedonheightforagecriteriaandfrom43to29percentbasedonweightforagecriteria.Thisisasignificantimprovementovertheprecedingperiod,whenchildundernutritionwasdecliningataglacialpace.Yet,muchfasterprogressisrequiredifIndiaistoovercomethiscolossal(big,)probleminareasonableperiodoftime.

Finally,thereareworryingsignsofstagnationinsomeimportantfields.Oneofthemisaccesstosafedrinkingwater:88percentin200506and91percentin201314.Theshortfallfromuniversalcoveragemaynotlooklarge,butconsideringthevitalimportanceofsafewater,itisalarmingthatcloseto10percentofhouseholdsarestilldeprivedofit(thecorrespondingfigureinBangladeshwasjust3percentin2007).Nolessalarmingistheslowprogressofsanitation:theproportionofsamplehouseholdspracticingopendefecationdeclinedfrom55percentin200506to46percentin201314,orbarelyonepercentagepointperyear.

awayTheWorldBankrecentlyannouncedthatshortofexceptionalcircumstances,theywouldnolongerfundcoalindevelopingregions.TheU.S.an...

Atthatrate,itwilltakeatleastanother40yearsforIndiatoeliminateopendefecation.

Situationinothercountries

Itisusefultoreadthesefiguresincomparisonwithsimilardata(e.g.fromtheperiodicDemographicandHealthSurveys)fromotherSouthAsiancountries,especiallyBangladeshandNepal.ThesecomparisonstendtoplaceIndiainapoorlight.Forinstance,despitebeingabouttwiceasrichasBangladeshintermsofpercapitaGDP,IndialagsfarbehindBangladeshintermsofchildvaccinationrates,breastfeedingpractices,incidenceofopendefecation,accesstosafewater,andrelatedindicators.ThesamepointappliesifwecompareIndiawithNepal,whichisevenpoorerthanBangladesh.ThisgapreflectsIndiasresilientneglectofhealthandnutritionmattersoveralongperiodoftime.TheRSOCfindingssuggestthat,insomerespectsatleast,Indiaisfinallycatchingupwithitspoorerneighbours.Theyalsosuggestthattheareasofrapidprogress(example,safedeliveryandvaccination)arethosewhereseriousactionwasinitiatedduringthelast10yearsorso.Theneedofthehouristoconsolidate(strengthen,)theseinitiativesandextendthemtootherdomainswherethereisstillnosignofrapidprogress.

Alas,theCentralgovernmentisgoingintheoppositedirection.FinancialallocationsfortheIntegratedChildDevelopmentServiceswereslashedby50percentorsointhelastUnionbudget,sendingadisastroussignalaboutpolicypriorities(nomatterwhatcompensationStategovernmentsmaybereceivingintheformofhighertaxrevenue).Healthpolicyisamorass(quagmire,)ofconfusionandinertia(inactivity,),withtheHealthMinistryandNITIAayogtalkingatcrosspurposes.TheCentralgovernmentisbrazenly(openly,)ignoringitslegalobligationtoprovideformaternityentitlementsundertheNationalFoodSecurityAct.Eventhesanitationbudgethasbeenquietlyreduced,soonafterthePrimeMinistermadetallpromisesofIndiabeingopendefecationfreewithinfiveyears.

TheCentralgovernmentiseffectivelypalmingoffsocialpolicytotheStates,withlittleregardfortheconsequences(result,)ofunderminingcentrallysponsoredinitiativesthatplayacriticalroleinthefieldofmaternalandchildhealth.Thisdoesnotaugur(predict,x)wellforanotherleapforwardinthenearfuture.


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Tuesday,September15,2015

Sowhosbeingriskaverse?Theprimeministertoldcaptainsofindustryandfinancelastweekthattheeconomicfundamentalsofthecountryaregoodandthattheymusttakerisksandinvestatthispointoftime.Sage(wise,)advice,verypertinent(appropriate,)totheeconomiccrisiswenowface.

Iinvestsomeofmymeagre(small,)savingsinmutualfunds.Acoupleofyearsago,seducedbyaleadingprivatesectorbanktoinvestinstocks,Iinvestedasmallamount,boughtandsoldsharesastheyadvised,andultimatelyendedup

losingmoney.Fortunately,Ididnottaketoogreatahitastheamountinvestedwassmall.Now,anotherbank,whichtakescareofmymutualfunds,advisesmefromtimetotimetobuyintoequitybasedmutualfundswhenthemarketdrops.However,Idonothavethegutsandpreferatpresenttokeepmymoneyindebtbasedliquidfunds.Withstockpricesfluctuating(unstable,)wildlyfromdaytodayandtheapparent(clear,)lackofconfidenceinthemarket,Iwouldhavetobeabravemanindeedtoputmymoneyinmediumtolongterminvestments.

Iamalsoontheboardofdirectorsofabank.Ihearthesamestory.Myfriendsinthebankingsectorsaythatcreditofftakeislowandthattherearefewsignsthatthingswillimproveintheimmediatefuture.Someofmybankercolleaguesontheboardshownoinclination(intrest,)totakerisksandventureintocertainareas,evenwhentheborrowerhasanimpeccable(perfect,)recordofrepaymentandinterestpayment.

IsincerelyhopeIndianindustryfollowsthePMswellmeantadvice,butsomehowitdoesnotseemtogelwithgroundconditions.Riskappetiteseemstobelow,whetheritisinthecorporateorthefinancialsector.Iwonderwhetherthesolutionliesinthegovernment,aswellastheRBI,takingsomerisks.

ThefocusofthegovernmentandtheRBIseemstobeonthefiscaldeficitandinflation.Thereistalkofreform,orthelackofit,butthis,tomymind,istoonebulous(unfixed,)aconcept.WillFDIinmultibrandretailorchangesinthelandacquisitionlawbringaboutthekindofmindsetchangethatwillboosttheeconomy?TheGSTisanothermatter.Ibelieveitsintroductionislongdelayedandourlawmakersoughttocollectivelyresolvetoputitinplaceasearlyasfeasible(possible,)forthelargergoodofthecountry.Politicalsquabbles(smallfight,)mustnotstandintheway.Governancereformalsoremainscritical.ThegovernmenthadtakentherightstepbyaskingBibekDebroyandhiscommitteetoexaminethemannerinwhichreformscouldbebroughtaboutinakeysector,theIndianRailways.Thereport,dilutedasitis,doesnotseemtobeseeingthelightofday,which,again,doesnotspeakwelloftheriskappetiteofthegovernment.

Thebulkofourreformswascarriedoutinthe1990s.Aswegoalong,moreandmorechangeswilltakeplaceinourpolicies,proceduresand,hopefully,therewillbegreateralignmentofpolicybetweentheCentreandthestates.

Foralongtimenow,industryhasbeencryingitselfhoarse(harsh,x)abouttheneedforratecuts.Now,leadingfiguresinthegovernmentandNitiAayogarealsomakingapitchforsubstantialreductioninratesbytheRBI.Somesmallcutshavebeenmadebuttheseareacknowledgedtohavehadnosignificantimpact.Thedemandnowisforgreaterratecuts.Yet,therearemanywhobelievethattheRBIisalreadybehindthecurveandthatmonetarypolicychangesatthisstagemaynothaveasufficientimpact.Indeed,thequestionarisesastowhetherinflationinducedbysectoralsupplydemanddisequilibriumcanbeaddressedthroughmonetarypolicy,whichhasaneffectacrosssectors.

Perhaps,todayweneedsomethingmorethansterile(infertile,)criesforundefinedreformandratecuts.Weneedaproactiveresponsefromthegovernmenttothechangedeconomicsituation.Mymindgoesbackto200809,whenweidentifiedproblemareasandevolvedspeciallydesignedstimuluspackagestoreviveflaggingsectorsandraisesupply,demandandconfidenceallatonce.

IamremindedalsooftheclosecoordinationbetweenthegovernmentandtheRBIatthattime.Irecallthatthefirststimuluspackagewasannouncedatapressconferenceat5pmoneday.Anhourlater,onthesameday,thegovernoroftheRBIannouncedmeasurestoincreaseliquidity.ThegovernmentandtheRBIalsoworkedtogethertopersuade(convince,)publicsectorbankstotakeproactivemeasurestoincreasecreditofftake.Then,asnow,bankswerekeepingmoremoneyintheRBIthanthestatutoryliquidityratiorequired.Economistswillargueadnauseam(toasickeningextent,)aboutwhetherthemeasurestakenthenwerewiseornot.Thefact,however,remainsthatthefirstgreenshootsofrecoverywereseeninIndia.

Ofcourse,thepresentemphasisoninfrastructurespendingissoundandnecessary.Butweneedquickinvestment.WecannotwaituntiltherailwaysfindsRs8lakhcroreforinvestmentandtranslatesitintobrickandmortar,eventhoughthisisnecessaryinthelongterm.Woulditnotbemucheasiertoletthestatesborrowmorethantheirfiscalresponsibilityandbudgetmanagementlimitsallow,andspenditonroads,bridgesandotherconstructionthatwouldgeneratejobs,incomeandgreaterspendingcapacity?Woulditnotbedesirabletorevivepublicprivatepartnershipswithsuchchangesasarenecessaryandcreatethenewinstitution,3P,promisedbythefinanceministerinhisbudgetspeechof201415?

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TherearemanyquestionsandIamsuretherearemanywisebrainsatworkinDelhi.Thenationwaitswithbated(hold,)breathfordynamicsolutions.


StateofbusinessOnMonday,theWorldBankcameoutwiththefirsteverrankingofIndianstatesbasedonlevelsofcompliance(conformity,)tothe98pointactionplanunveiled(revealed,)bytheNarendraModigovernmentundertheMakeinIndiainitiativelastDecember.Thereport,titledAssessmentofStateImplementationofBusinessReforms,isntpartoftheWorldBankspopularEaseofDoingBusinessrankings,butitcouldbeausefulbeginningforasimilaranalysiswithinIndia,withstatesincreasinglycompetingwitheachothertoattractbusinessactivity.Indiahasbeenalaggard(slow,)eversincetheWorldBankstartedcompiling(collect,)theEaseofDoingBusinessindexin2004.Intherecentpast,Indiahasmanagedtoslumpfurtherintherankingitisnow

142ndoutof189countriesineaseofdoingbusinessindex.Asthislatestreportdetails,Indiasoverallrankingisareflectionofhowillequippedvariousstatesaretoengageentrepreneurs.Iftakenseriously,suchastatelevelassessmentcouldhelppushnotjustcooperativefederalism,whereinstateslearnfromeachother,butalsocompetitivefederalism,withstatescompetingaggressivelytowoo(attract,x)investors.

Thereportidentifiesspecificweaknessesofindividualstateswhilelayingoutsomebroadinsights.Tocommence(begin,)with,regardlessofindividualranks,theoveralllevelofcomplianceismiddling,atbest.Forinstance,notasinglestateachieved75percentimplementationinthesixmonthperiodunderconsideration(JanuarytoJune2015).Infact,25outofthe32statesandUTsinthelistfailedtoevenaccomplish50percentoftheregulatorysetuprequired.These25namesincludedsomeofthebiggestandmostpopulousstates,suchasUttarPradesh,BiharandMaharashtra.Evenas,ingeneral,stateswithlowerpercapitaincomeshowedgreaterinitiativetopushforreforms,itmightcomeasasurprisethatJharkhand,whichhassufferedfromchronic(usual,)politicalinstability,ranksthirdintheoverallscore,thankstoits100percentcompliancewithalllabourlaws.Punjabistheeasieststatetosetupabusiness,whileGujarat,contrarytopopularperception,languishes(lose,fade,)closetothenationalaverageinthisregard.

Indeed,eachstateisaconflated(mixed,)bag.PunjabhasanearzeroscoreinenforcingcontractsanditisalmostimpossibletosetupabusinessinJharkhand.Thereport,whichneedstobefollowedupon,pointsprecisely(exactly,)totheareasinwhicheachstatelagsandcanencouragelearningfromtheleaders.By2020,Indiaisexpectedtohaveover900millionpeopleintheworkingagegroup.Mostofthejobsfortheyoungwillneedtocomefromtheprivatesector.Needlesstosay,itisimperativetoregularlymaptheregulatorylandscapeifIndiahastoimproveitsrankinthedoingbusinessindex


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Labels:bankingenglish,englishforcompetitionexam,iasarticle,indianexpress,sscbankingarticlethehvindueditorial,thehinduarticle,thehindueditorial


NotesfromSingaporeTheresultsofthe17thgeneralelectionsofSingapore,whichtookplaceonSeptember11,werearesoundingtriumph(victory,)forthePeoplesActionParty(PAP),whichhasbeeninpowersincethefoundingoftherepublicin1965.Thiswasnoordinaryvictory.Therulingparty,despitegrim(unpleasant,)predictions,broughthomeanoverwhelminghaulof83seatsoutofatotal89.Itsvoteshareof69.9percentmarkedanincreaseof9.8percentagepointscomparedtothe2011polls.

ByIndianstandards,thecampaign,whichlastedallofninedayswithacoolingoffdayintheend,wasanintensebutshort,nonviolentandorderlyaffair.Over93percentofeligiblevoterscasttheirballots.Thisisnotsurprising,sincevotingiscompulsoryinSingapore.However,judgingbytheintensityofthecampaignandthedeterminedeffortsofallcontestantsfromtherulingpartyaswellas

oppositionpartiesthiselectionwasnotmerelyaritualbutarealbattleofwills.

PrimeMinisterLeeHsienLoonghadtakenacalculatedriskinbringingtheelectionsforwardbyayear,ontheheelsoftheSG50celebrationstomarkthe50thanniversaryoftherepublic.ThiswasalsothefirsttimethePAPwenttothepollswithoutthetoweringpresenceofLeeKuanYew,therepublicsfounderandPMLeesfather,whopassedawayinMarch.Thus,therealchallengeforthePMwastoensureasmoothtransitiontoanewregime(rule,)withabenign(kind,)face,basedoninclusive,efficientandprofessionalgovernance.

Thelongshadowofthe2011pollsformedanominous(threatening,)backdrop.Socialinequalitywascited(mentioned,)asamajorissuebytheWorkersParty,whichwasexpectedtocapitaliseonit.TheoutlookforSingaporesexportdependenteconomyappearedgrim.Theeconomycontractedasharp4.6percentinthesecondquarterandroseafeeble(weak,)1.7percentfromthepreviousyear.Otherissues,suchasasurge(riserapidly,)inimmigration,crowdingofpublictransportation,andconcernsoverhealthcareandretirementsavingshadcausedpublicresentment(anger,).Besides,housingandpropertypricesweremuchcontestedtopics.Finally,aftermanyyearsofonepartyrule,manywereconcernedaboutaccountabilityandtransparency.Politicianssalariesremainamongthehighestglobally.Thishadspurred(incite,)accusationsthatthePAPwasoutoftouchwithordinarySingaporeans,particularlyonincomedisparity.

Despitethesechallengesfromtheopposition,thegovernment,risingovertheappealsofpopulism,hadresistedcallsforuniversalhealthcare,showcasingitsfinancialprudence(understanding,)andsolicitude(worrying,)forstablegovernance.Thepolicydebateswillsurelycontinue.ButthescaleandspreadoftheelectoraltriumphshouldbeseenasastrongendorsementoftheleadershipofthePM,withhiscentralmessageofcontinuingwiththeachievementsofSingaporeeconomicgrowth,stability,environmentalsustainability,communalharmonyandarobust(strong,),forwardlookingattitudetolife.ThePMdeclared:Tomorrowwillbebetterthantoday,SG100willbebetterthanSG50.Thankyouverymuch.

Throughoutthecampaign,hisubiquitous(omnipresent,x),smilingfaceonelectionhoardings,hisgenialwalkaboutsminglingwithcrowdswithout


anythinglikethesecuritycordonthatfiltersordinaryfolksfromtheleadershipinmostcountriesmadethiselectionsomethingofapersonalachievementforhim.Withthiselection,Leehasfinallyemergedfromunderthetoweringpresenceofhisfather.

Plusachange?Sceptics(doubter,)whoscoff(mockery,)attheideaofanAsiandemocracyandseeitmerelyasatruncated(short,)versionoftherealthingarewideoffthemark.Underneaththefacadeofarulingparty,withitshighlyefficientpartymachineandastatemachinerythathasmentoredtheriseofabarrenislandintofirstworldprosperity,avitalchangeistakingplaceinthenatureofSingaporesnationalidentity,communityandpoliticalprocess.JustastheCongresssdominanceinthefirsttwodecadesimmediatelyafterIndianindependenceestablishedthekeyparametersofIndianpoliticsindependenceofthejudiciary,theElectionCommission,thearmyspoliticalneutralityandthesanctity(holiness,)ofthebasicrightsofordinarycitizenssotoohasthestewardshipofthePAPgivenSingaporeitspoliticalandmoralfoundation.

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WhySupremeCourtjudgmentonAadhaarcallsforanappealMahatmaGandhirefusedtojointheConstituentAssemblythatwroteourwonderfulConstitution,buthisadvicetosomeofthememberswas,Wheneveryouareindoubt,applythefollowingtest.Recallthefaceofthepoorestandtheweakestmanyoumayhaveseen,andaskyourselfifthestepyoucontemplate(study,)isgoingtobeofanyusetohim.Willhegainanythingbyit?Willitrestorehimtocurb(control,)overhisownlifeanddestiny?Willitleadtoswarajfortheravenous(hungry,)andspirituallystarvingmillions?IsubmitthattherecentSupremeCourt(SC)interimjudgmentonAadhaardoesnotpasstheMahatmastestanditmustbeappealed.Allitneedsisonesmalltweak(pinch,).

Tomeettheunleashedaspirationsofabillionpeople,businessasusualwillnotdo.TheIndianstatemustusetechnologyinatransformationalwaytoacceleratesocialandeconomicjusticeandamplify(expand,)opportunityforallatscaleandspeed.TwoofthefourSCdirectivesareunfair.ThefirsttwowidepublicityofAadhaarbeingnonmandatoryandensuringthatnobenefitsduetoanycitizenaredeniedwithoutanAadhaarcardareuseful.ButthelasttwonouseofAadhaarcardsoritsinformationforanythingotherthanPDSrationshopsandLPGcylindersmustbeappealedonthegroundsofindividualchoiceandthefreedomoftheexecutivetoframepolicy.

Butletsstartwiththefactsthatdisputesomeofthefilingsinthiscase.Forexample,inthebankingsector,AadhaariscompletelyvoluntaryandhasnotbeenmademandatorybytheRBI.NobankinginformationissharedwiththeUniqueIdentificationAuthorityofIndia(UIDAI)allcustomerbankingtransactionsareheldbyregulatedbankingentitiesgovernedbybanksecrecylaws.TheUIDAIsystemiscompletelyignorantoftheusageofAadhaarforseedingandfortheAadhaarPaymentsBridge(maintainedbytheNationalPaymentsCorporationofIndia,anRBIregulatedentity).WhenacustomerdoesanAadhaarauthentication

at,say,amicroATM,theAadhaarsystemknowsthatanauthenticationwasdone,butnotthepurposeforwhichitwasdone.Similarly,whenanelectronicknowyourcustomer(eKYC)isdone,theAadhaarsystemreleasesthenameandaddresstoaregulatedentity,butdoesnotknowthepurpose.Also,wheneverapersonsAadhaarnumberisusedforanauthenticationoraneKYC,hegetsanalertbySMS/emailthathisnumberhasbeenused.TheAadhaarsystemensuresprivacybydesignitusesafederatedarchitecture,thatis,bankingdataiswhollyinsidethebankingsystem,healthcaredatawhollyinthehealthcaresystem,etc.Moreover,apersoncanelecttolockherownAadhaarnumber,sonoauthenticationoreKYCiseverdonewithoutherunlockingit.BiometricdataisneversharedbytheUIDAIunderanycircumstances.

Thefirstgroundforappealisthefreedomofindividualchoice.EnrolmentinAadhaarisvoluntaryandindividualsgrantingpermissionfortheUIDAIsystemtosharetheirnameandaddressinasecurewaywithanothersystemfortheirownconvenienceandbenefithardlyqualifiesasaviolationoftheirrighttoprivacy.TheupsidesofthevoluntaryuseofAadhaarforfinancialinclusion,forexample,areimmense(large,).Aadhaarisusedbyindividualsinthebankingsystemto:First,openanaccountwitheKYCsecond,seedanalreadyopenedbankaccountthird,receivegovernmentbenefitsthroughtheAadhaarPaymentsBridgeandfourth,withdrawmoneyfromamicroATMusingAadhaarbiometricauthentication.AllfourusesofAadhaararevoluntary,butsimpler,faster,cheaperandfarmoreconvenientthanthealternatives.Thedataisonlysharedwiththecustomersconsent(agree,).Mostimportantly,thesamedataisalreadywidelyavailableontheinternetviaelectionrolls.

Thesecondgroundforappealisbasedonexecutivefreedomtoframepolicy.OnwhatbasisdidthecourtchoosetheuseofAadhaarforgascylindersoverothersubsidies?WhyallowrationshopstouseAadhaarforauthenticationandeKYCtoopenarationaccount,butstaysilentonAadhaarseKYCtogettingabankaccountoraSIMcard?WhybesilentontheuseofAadhaarauthenticationandeKYCforothersocialandeconomicinterventionslikebiometricattendance,theJanDhanYojana,theMahatmaGandhiNationalRuralEmploymentGuaranteeScheme,eSign(digitalsignatures)andnewpaymentsbanks?Postthisjudgment,theElectionCommission,thePensionFundRegulatoryandDevelopmentAuthorityandtheEmployeesProvidentFundOrganisationhaveputtheirAadhaarusageplansonhold.GovernmentexpenditureinIndiawillrisesubstantiallyfromthe


current17percentofGDPoverthenextfewdecadesalargepartofthisexpendituregrowthwillbesubsidiesforourpoor.FraudisthebiggestenemyoftheRs4lakhcroreIndiaalreadyspendsonsubsidies.WhydenytheIndianstatetheuseofAadhaarforefficientandeffectivesubsidytargetingandprovidingconveniencestoitspeople,aslongastheuseofAadhaarisvoluntary?

Indiawasareckless(careless,)experimentin1947poor,large,linguisticallyrichandreligiouslydiversecountrieswerenotsupposedtosurviveasdemocracies.ButtheradicalinnovationofaConstitutionthatgaveuniversalfranchisesomewomeninSwitzerland,forinstance,onlygottovotein1972hascreatedawonderfuldemocracy.However,itisimportanttoacknowledgethatoverthelast69years,ourpoliticaldemocracy(oneman,onevote)hasnotalwaysbeencomplementedbysocialdemocracy(oneman,onevalue)andeconomicdemocracy(oneman,oneopportunity).AadhaariscriticalplumbingfortheIndianstatetoleapfrogdevelopedcountriesincreatingamodernwelfarestate,endpoverty,createopportunitiesandmeetourtrystwithdestiny.

MyhumblesubmissionisthattheSupremeCourtsinterimjudgmentneedsonlyonesmalltweak.AnAadhaarholdermustbeabletousehernumberandshareherownnameandaddressinanyapplicationofherchoice,aslongasitisvoluntary.

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Monday,September14,2015

LandscapeoftheindividualAttheriskofreductionism,Iamtemptedtoengagewithanirony(satirical,)wearenowsimultaneouslyastatethatawardsdeathtoanindividualkeenonliving,andforceslifeuponanindividualkeenondying.Weareoneofthefewcivilisedstatesstillpractisingcapitalpunishment,andoneofthemanystillshirking(avoid,)therighttodie.

Wehavebeennegotiatingthedecriminalisation(partiality,)ofattempttosuicidesince2013.InFebruary,theministryofhomeaffairsdecidedtoaccepttherecommendationoftheLawCommissionofIndiatodeleteSection309fromtheIPC,anddraftedaproposal.Wearestillwaiting.Wenowremainoneofthelastcountriesintheworldwhere,ifyoudontdiesuccessfully,youllgotojailfortrying.Mypartnertellsmethatcanmakeforagoodfilm.

Thefundamentalfunctionofthestateistoguaranteesustenance,equalityandcompletecivilliberty,whilebalancingitwithcheckstoensureoneindividualslibertydoesnotviolateanothersrights.Itistonegotiatesocialcontracts,warnagainstviolationandcompensateforabreach.Thestatebuildsinfrastructureandsystemstofulfilitsfundamentalpromises,andprotectsproperty,ownedindividually,commonlyorcollectively.

Sohowdoweresolveaconflict(battle,)betweenthestatesguaranteeofthecitizenswellbeingandacitizensdemandforselfannihilation?Byestablishingasimpleinviolableboundarythelandscapeoftheindividual.Theindividual(aninformed,soundmindedconsentingadult)isthesoleowneroftheself,entirelyresponsiblefortheself,andnotstateproperty.Thestatesdutyislimitedtoprotectingthecitizenfromexternalthreats.Thestate,initstraditionalpaternalism,shouldnotforgetithaslimitedpowersandresponsibilitiesinindividualschoicesaffectingtheirownselves.

Thestatemusteducate,informandcautionthecitizen,butitmustnotmistakepedagogyforpaternity.Forexample,smoking.Thestatedirectscigarettecompaniestowarnconsumers,withoutambiguity(unclear,),againsttheriskssmokingposestotheirhealth.Thestateisevenfreetocarryouteducationalcampaignsenlighteningcitizensofsuchrisks.Warnedagainstpotentialfatality,theindividualisstillfreetosmoke.Noteverywherethoughthestatehastonowstepintopreventtheindividualsactionfromharmingothers,andmaydosobybanningsmokinginpublicspaces,evencreatingsmokingboothswheresmokersarewelcometoinjureandpleasurethemselves.

Now,whenthelawfinesacitizenfornotwearingaseatbeltorahelmet,theonlyethicalexplanationforsuchpunishmentisthatitsadeterrent(prevention,)createdtolessenthepublichealthburdencausedbytheincidenceofaccidentrelatedfatalities(humandeath,).(Therehavebeenargumentsaboutsmokershavingtoregisterthemselves,whichwilllimittheirhealthcarerightsiftheydeveloplungcancer,butsucharecommendationisboundtoconflictwiththeotherfundamentalrightsofthecitizen).

IwillengageinsomeselflabellinghereIamanatheistandIamassertively(strongly,)irreligioustotheextentthatIamconvincedthatmostreligiousandancientphilosophicalsystemsoftheworldarewellintended,butunderupdated,vestigial(undeveloped,),stagnant(dead,)andflawed(imperfect,x),inspiredattimes,yetmisinformed.Iamnotanadvocateoffreedomofreligiousexpressionifitviolatesthefundamentalrightsofanotherindividual(includingofnonhumans).Inthat,Iliketothinkofmyselfasahumanist,arationalistandautilitarian.

Infurtive(secret,)didacticism(informative,),thecharacterofMaitreyainmyfilm,ShipofTheseus,oftenmouthsmypersonalbeliefs.Onesuchis,Allethicsshouldbearrivedatinisolationofreligiousbeliefs.Itwasimportanttomethatamonksaythis.Iwantedtomakesurethatthecentralphilosophicaldebateaboutidentity,selfandviolencedidntgetembroiled(entangled,)inreligiouspolitics,socialpracticeandcontemporarylaw.So,Ihypothesised(suppose,guess,)thesituationwithintheframeworkofafictitiousreligion,thebasicprinciplesofwhichwereinspiredbythetwoSramanatraditions,JainismandBuddhism.Similarly,Isuggestwestepawayfromreligiontoscrutiny(examine,)thediscoursearoundSallekhana.

Atatimewhenwehavedecodedthehumangenome,plungeddeepintothebrain,deconstructedeveryemotionandinstincttoitsoriginalevolutionaryfunction,wehavelittleneedtofallbackonancientinstitutionstofindmoralsolutions.Wecandothatusingcontemporarytoolsofenlightenmentandinquiry.(Wemighthowever,insomecases,wanttodustoverusablepartsofintuitionsandideasfromancientwisdom.)InbuildingacasefortherighttodieandSanthara,Irecommendthatwedonotletthedefencegetoverpoweredbyasingularconversationaroundreligiousfreedom.Thereissomethingbiggeratstakehere.

Bodilyintegrityandindividualsovereignty(autonomous,)areinalienablerightsofthemoderncitizen.Theserightsareevenmorefundamentalthantherighttoreligiousexpression,anditisprimarilytheserightsthatarebeingchallengedbytheRajasthanHighCourtbanonSallekhana,whichhasbeenstayedbytheapexcourt.Wehavetoacceptandestablishthatthelawhasnomoralrightwhatsoevertolegallyinterferewiththelifestyle,sexual,reproductive,deathchoicesofinformed,consenting(agree,)adults,eveniftheyarebeyondtheunderstandingofpresumablywellintentionedstaterepresentatives.

Therighttoreligiousexpressionfollows,andcanberephrasedastherighttodefineandmanifesttheself,asanextensionoftheworldviewthatguidesanindividualslife.Howtheindividualseestheselfasasumtotalofallpastcauses,asanevolvingbiochemicalorganismwithanaccumulatedmeaningandfreewill,asawaveinanocean,asameaningfulcreationofahyperintelligententity,asameaninglessaccident,asanotion(opinion,),asamachinehostingaghost,asasteptowardsascension(rise,),astransient,aspermanentorasanatomcarryingtheuniversewillhavetobeallowed,howeverunacceptableitmayseemtotherestofus.Theindividualhastherighttoconstructtheirownmeaningoflifeandinterpretlifeanddeathinlightofthatmeaning.Thisworldviewcanbenegotiatedwith,arguedwith,transformedandinformed,butnotlegallyregulated.Notforawhile,atleast.

However,itwillbepuerile(immature,)tobrushthenuances(slightdifference,)ofthedilemma(uncertainty,confusion,)underthecarpet.Whilethereisgreaterunanimity(fullagreement,x)overaterminallyillpatientsrighttodie,thedebateisreallywithinthespaceofaphysicallyhealthyindividualschoicetoterminatetheirlife,asitraisesquestionsofmentalwellbeingandinformedconsent.Isitastablechoice,achievedafterduedeliberationandprofoundconsiderationoftheconsequences(result,),or


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isitanimpulsive(spontaneous,)decision,madeoutofmentalinstabilityorafalselyperceivedabsenceofchoices?Canweestablishcoercion(force,)?Isittheconcernedindividualmakingthechoice,orisitaguardianorcaretaker?Thesequestionswillneedmoreinquiryanddeliberation.

Meanwhile,asfarasinformed,soundminded,consentingadultsareconcerned,itshightimethestatestopscriminalisingtheirsexualandaestheticchoices,theirmediaconsumption,theirpersonalexpression,howtheylive,andhowtheydie.


WhyMaharashtraisunderstressLaxmanSinghRathoreandhisentireteamintheIndianMeteorological

Department(IMD)needtobecomplimentedforgivingussufficientwarning,wellinadvance,aboutthelikelihoodofyetanotheryearofdeficit(short,)rainfall.Althoughitwasnotgoodnews,themessengerkeptitshonestyandboldnessinspeakingthebittertruth.OnApril22,initsinitialforecastsof2015monsoonrains,therainswereforecasttobe93percentofthelongperiodaverage(LPA,19512000),whichwasrevisedto88percentofLPAonJune2.Inlaterpressinterviews,Rathoreindicatedthatthefinaltallymaybeevenlower.

Forecastingthesefigureshasbeenevenmoredaunting(discourage,)andchallengingfortheIMDsinceaprivateforecaster,Skymet,consistentlycameupwithitspredictionsofnormalrainfall(102percentofLPAearlier,andthenrevisingto98percentlater).Inreality,asonSeptember10,theraindeficitstoodat15percentbelowtheLPAwithlittlechanceofaturnaroundnow.ThisshouldleadSkymettointrospectaboutitsforecastsandhowitsoptimisticforecasthadmademanypolicymakerscomplacent(selfsatisfied,).

Thesituationismostprecarious(unsafe,dangerous,x)currentlyinMaharashtra,especiallyinMarathwadaandMadhyaMaharashtra,wherethedeficitfigureshavehovered(flyaround,)betweenminus40tominus50percentduringthelast10daysorso.Assuch,manydamshavegonealmostdry,orwaybelowthedesiredwaterlevels.Thishascreatedalmostanemergencysituationofdrinkingwaterforhumansaswellasanimals.

Lately,Maharashtrahasbeentheepicentreoffarmersuicides.Morethan600farmershavecommittedsuicide.Frontloadingandenhancinginsurancecompensationassoonasthemonsoonisover,bySeptemberend,wouldgoalongwayinprovidingsomerelief.Restructuringagriculturalcreditcouldbeanotheroption.

ButMaharashtrahastothinkintermsofamediumtolongtermstrategyforagriculture.ThefollowingfactsaboutMaharashtrasagricultureexplainwhyitisunderseverestressduringeverydrought.Despitehavingthelargestnumberofdamsinthecountry,lessthan20percentofthestatescroppedareaisunderirrigationcover.Between199293and201112,MaharashtrascumulativecapitalexpenditureonmajorandmediumirrigationschemeswasRs81,359crore(athistoricalprices).At201415constantprices,thisworksouttobeRs1,37,917crore.Duringthesameperiod,thepotentialcreatedundertheseschemeswasonly2.1millionhectare(ha).Thisconsequences(results,)inacapitalcostof

almostRs6.6lakhperhamorethandoubleGujarats(Rs2.9lakhperha)andalmostfourtimesthatofUttarPradesh(Rs1.6lakhperha),forthesameperiod.

Nowconsiderthis.Roughly5percentofthecroppedareainthestate,whichisundersugarcanecultivation,takesawaymorethan60percentofirrigationwaterofthestate.Thisisbecausesugarcanereceives100percentirrigationandrequires2530irrigationsascomparedto,say,cotton,ofwhichlessthan3percentisirrigated,orturandsoyabean,ofwhichlessthan2percentisirrigated.Itisnoteworthythatallthesecropsrequiremuchlessirrigation(justtwotofiveirrigations).WatermeansprosperityinMaharashtrasagriculture,andtheimplicationofthisskeweddistributionofwateristhatalmost5percentoffarmerstakeaway60percentofpotentialprosperityfromwater,leavingtheremainingpeasantshighanddry.

Itistimetorationalisepoliciesespeciallywaterdistributionrelatingtothesugarsector,orelse,intheyearstocome,peoplewillsufferevengreaterwaterstress.Onewaytodoitistorationthewatersupplyfrompublicirrigationschemes,sothatalargernumberoffarmersreceiveirrigation.Inamarketsystem,onecouldhaveraisedtheirrigationwaterchargestoalignwateruse.Butourpoliticalmastersarealwayswaryofraisingthepricesofwaterandpower,whichleadstounsustainablecroppingpatterns.Theotherwayistoputaminimumof50percentofsugarcanecultivationunderdripirrigationoverthenextfivetosevenyearsandreleasethesavedwater(almost4050percent)forothercropsandencouragecropdiversification,includingthosethatcangiveadequate(enough,x)fodder()forcattle.ThemoneyforthescaledupdripirrigationcancomefromtheCentre,state,sugarfactoriesandsugarcanefarmers.

Atanationallevel,onehastothinkoflandusepolicyandalsoofdevelopingcroppingpatternsthataresustainableandinlinewithnaturalresourceendowments,aswellasgloballycompetitive.GiventhattherealcostofirrigationinMaharashtraisfourtimeshigherthaninUP,onehastoaccountforthisinefficiencycalculations.MaybeMaharashtraismoresuitableforindustrialclusters(bunch,)thanagriculturethis,therefore,couldbeincorporatedinlandusepolicy.

Itstimeforthestatetobitethebullet(acceptunwillingly,)andrestructureitsagriculturetoputitonasustainablepath,bringingprosperityandresiliencetoalargernumberoffarmers.


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FifthColumn:Itstheeconomy,stupidThereareworryingsignsthatthePrimeMinisterhasstartedtotakethedynastyheousted(remove,)seriously.OrwhyshouldhehavebotheredtorespondtoSoniaGandhissilly,meaninglesscommentabouthawabaaziatall?IndiasformerRajmatastartedaccusingNarendraModiofmakingfalsepromisesduringthe2014electioncampaignandhasnotchangedhertunesince.TheonlythingshehasstoppedsayingisthatifhesucceededinbecomingprimeministeronlyGodwouldbeabletosaveIndia.

Therehasnotbeenonecommentfromherthatindicatesthatshehasnoticedthatinthepastyeartherehasbeenarestorationofconfidenceandhopethatdiedcompletelyinthelastthreeyearsofherrule.IfthePrimeMinisterstillbelievesthatherattitudetowardshimwillchangeifhedoeslittlefavourslikeallowinghersoninlawtoevade(avoid,escape,)frisking(playcarelessly,)

atairports,thenitistimehestopped.ThereisnochancethattheGandhiswillcooperateatanylevelwiththeModigovernment,becauseitisinitsfailurethatliestheironlychanceofreclaimingwhattheyconsidertheirbirthright.

WhatismostworryingisthatthePrimeMinisterseemseventohaveallowedRahulGandhitogetunderhisskinwithhissuitbootkisarkarcomment.OrwhydidheletmorethanayearpassbeforehemetIndianbusinessmentofindoutwhytheyaresoreluctant(unwilling,)tobegininvestingagain?Foreigninvestorsareusefulandmustbelured(provoke,entice,)toourshores,butitismuchmoreimportantforIndianinvestorstoinvest,becauseunlesstheydo,thereisnochanceofcreatingthoseelusive12millionjobsayear.ItisonthisthatthePrimeMinistershouldconcentratehisattention,notonthesillycommentsofthetwopeoplewhodespise(disdain,)himfortakingIndiaawayfromthem.

WhenthePrimeMinistermetbigbusinessmenlastweek,hereportedlyurged(encourage,)themtotakemoreriskssothatIndiacouldtakeadvantageofChinaseconomycurrentlybeingintrouble.HashenotobservedthatthereasonwhyIndianinvestorsarereluctanttoinvestisbecauseithasbecomenoeasiertodobusinessthanitwasinthelastthreeyearsofSoniasreign?Thesamesillytaxesremaininplace,thesametaxhoundsharassinvestors,thesameendlesspermissionsneedtobetaken,andontopofthisarelabourlaws,thatforcemostIndianworkersintotheunorganisedsector.HasthePrimeMinisternotnoticedthatMakeinIndiacanneverhappenaslongasitremainsvirtuallyimpossibletosackworkers?HashenotnoticedthatitwaspossibleforChinatosetuphugefactoriesemployingthousandsofworkersmainlybecausetheydidnothavesuchfoolishlaws?

Indiasbiggestpoliticalproblemistheeconomy.Anditcannotrevive(repair,)untiltherearedrastic(forceful,)changesintherulesthatgoverneconomicactivities.DecadesofNehruviansocialismhavecreatedamindsetinofficialsacrossthecountrythatmakesthemseeenterpriseasevil.Sotheyspendtheirtimecrushingunderfootanyonewhodarestobecomeanentrepreneur.Theirony(satire,)isthatthehumbleststreetentrepreneursfacethemostrepression(oppression,),becausetheycannotaffordtopaythebribesneededtopreventmunicipalofficialsfromconfiscating(seize,)theirgoodsanddestroyingthem.Captainsofindustryhavethemoneypowertokeepofficialsatbay,buthavenowstartedsayingpubliclythatdoingbusinessin


Indiahasnotbecomeeasier.

ThisiswhatthePrimeMinistershouldworryabout.Andheshouldworryaboutwhyinfrastructureremainssobadthatitisnotjustindustrythatsuffersbutagriculture.Iffarmershadaccesstohalfwaydecentroadsandcoldstoragechains,theentrepreneurialskillsofruralIndiawouldbeunlockedinawaythathasneverhappenedbefore.TheCongresswayhasbeenthewayofalleviatingpovertythroughprogrammeslikeMNREGA,thatservemostlytobringadegreeofcomforttopeoplewholiveinextremepoverty.Modihasarealchancetoshowthathebelievesindoingthingsdifferently.

Beforesittingdowntowritethispiece,IlookedupsomeofthespeecheshemadebeforebecomingPrimeMinister.Speechesinwhichhetalkedofbringingprosperitythroughtourismandthroughencouragingfarmerstothinkintermsofexportingtheirproducetothemarketsoftheworld.Whydowenothearhimspeakthiskindoflanguageanymore?ThereisnopointintravellingtoforeigncitiesandassuringinvestorsthatIndiaisopenforbusinessifnothingchangesonthegroundinIndia.ItistruethatthelastthreeyearsofSoniasreignleftalegacyofbadgovernance,badpoliciesandaneconomyinbadtrouble.Butwhyhasmorenotchangedinthepastyear?

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ThethingwithgoldLastweek,theUnioncabinetintroducedtwoschemesaimedatcurbing(control,)goldimportsinthecountry.Between200910and201213,goldimportssurged(riserapidly,)andaccountedfornearly30percentofIndiastradedeficit(shortage,)(thatis,excessofimportsoverexports).Goldimportsweresecondonlytooilimportsandposedamassivechallengeforbothmonetaryandfiscalpolicymakers,becauseoftheincreasedoutgo(spending,)offoreignexchangereservesrequiredtofinancesuchimports.ButIndiasappetite(intensedesire,)forgoldhastraditionallyremainedimmune,bothtoincreasedpricesandtosummaryimportbans.

Infact,despiteseveraltightrestrictions2013onwards,Indiandemandforgoldin2014stoodat843tonnesitwasnotonlythehighestintheworldbutalsoaccountedformorethanonefourthoftheoverallglobaldemand.Inthiscontext,thetwoschemesthesovereign(supreme,autonomous,)goldbondschemeandthegoldmonetisationschemeaimtoreducedemandandboostsupplyrespectively,withoutattractingfurtherimports.However,thereareseveralreasonswhytheschemesmayreceiveamuted(dull,)response,atleastintheshortterm.

First,alargechunkofprivatelyheldgoldinIndiaisintheformofjewellery,notbullion.Thesentimentalvalueattachedtojewelleryisasignificanthurdle(problem,)inpeoplegivinguptheirgold.Second,aswitnessedwhensuchschemeswereannouncedinthepast,thesuccesshasoftenbeenlinkedtotheleveloftaxbreaksaswellasamnesty(freefrompunishment,)againstanywrongdoinginprocuringthegold.Lackofsuchamnestyislikelytomakemanydither(confusion,).Last,thereisafairchancethatthemonetisationschememay,infact,leadtosometradersimportingmoregold,intheformofbullion,justinordertoearninterest.Insuchascenario,thepublicsectorbanks,whicharealreadyunderstress,willcomeunderfurtherpressure.

Buteventhoughtherearequestionsabouttheimmediate


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efficacy(capacity,)oftheschemes,itisawelcomemovebythegovernment.Foracountrywithoneofthehighestappetitesforgold,thetwinschemesdoprovidealongtermframeworkformanagingimports.Anotheraspectispricemoderation.Since2000,internationalpriceshavegrownatacompoundannualgrowthrateofover16percentanddomesticpriceshavelargelymovedintandem(onebehindtheother,).Byprovidinganalternativetobuyingactualgold,throughthebondscheme,andaugmenting(increase,)theoverallsupplyofgold,throughthemonetisationscheme,marketpriceswillsmoothenovertimeandcontainsharpfluctuations(unstable,).


GDPgrowth:OvertotheRBIGDPgrowthisalmostanallconsumingstatisticforpolicymakers,academiciansandmarketparticipants.However,whenthenewGDPgrowthfigureswerereleasedforthequarterofAprilJune2015(hereafter2015:2),therewasmoredarknessthan

light.Notentirelyunexpected,sincethenewGDPdatahavebeenmetwithscepticism(doubtful,).Ihavenotbeenasceptic,neitheramonetodaywhilethegrowthfiguresareconfusing,thereisalogical,consistentexplanation.Thistimethough,dontblametheCSOforthecontroversy,blametheIMF.

Whathappened?GDPgrowthfortheAprilJunequartercameinat7percentversusmarketexpectationsof7.4percentandmyownestimateofcloseto9percent.Manyanalystswerestunnedbythelowestimate,especiallysincethefinanceministryandotherofficialswerepubliclytouting(advertising,)an810percentGDPgrowthpath.So,severalofficials(andcommentators)haveeggontheirface(itmeansyouhavemadeabigmistake,).Orhavethey?

WhatdidtheGDPdatareleasedbytheCSOshow?Thenewdataestimatesforbothgrossvalueadded(GVA)andforGDP,andthetwoarerelatedtoeachotherbythissimpleidentity:GDP=GVA+DITS,whereDITSisthedifferencebetweenindirecttaxesandsubsidies.

Somesimplefactsaboutthethreevariables:First,DITSisnormallypositiveandaccountsforapproximately7percentofGDP.Second,GDPandGVAgrowthratescloselyparalleleachother.Normally.Butfor2015:2,thetwodiverge,anddivergebyahugeamount.Inrealterms,bothgrewbyanearidenticalrateof7percentin2015:2.Butinnominalterms,GDPgrewat8.8percentwhileGVAgrewbyonly7.1percent.Inotherwords,inflationasmeasuredbytheGVAdeflatorwaszeropercent,whileinflationasmeasuredbytheGDPdeflatorwas1.8percent.

Sotheexplanationforthedifferenceingrowthestimatesisallinthecomputationofthedeflator.

Butwhichofthetwodeflatorsislikelytorepresentthecorrectinflationratein2015:2?Beforethisquarter,theyarenearidenticalbetween2011:2and2015:1,theaggregateGDPdeflatorincreasedbyanaverageof6.5percentayear,theGVAby6.4percent.

Oneindirectcheckonwhatthedeflatorshouldbeisyielded(return,)bytheclosesyntheticproxyfortheGDPdeflatoraweightedaverageofWPIandCPIinflation.HistoricaltestssuggestanapproximateweightingoftwothirdsfortheWPIandonethirdfortheCPI.Between2014:2and2015:2,CPIinflationwas5.1percentandWPIinflationminus2.4percent.Thisyieldsa0.1percentestimate

fortheimplicitpricedeflator,strikinglyclosetotheactualGVAdeflatorofzeropercent!

Thatdeflatorinflationisclosetozeroisalsosupportedbytheimplicitpricedeflatorforthethreesupplysidesectorsagriculture(4.5percent),industry(minus1.1percent),andservices(minus0.5percent).WeightedbysharesinGDP,thisalsoyieldsadeflatorclosetozero.Thechartdocumentsyoyquarterlyinflationaccordingtofourdifferentindicators.Theservicesdeflatorinflationisintroducedtoemphasisethatinflationdeclinetoclosetozerolevelsisforallsectors.SotherealpuzzleistheveryhighGDPdeflatorinflationof1.8percenthowcanthisnumberbesolargewhenallinflationnumberssuggest0percent?TheansweristheveryhighimplicitpricedeflatorforDITS.ActualnominalgrowthofDITSis33.6percent,sorealgrowthinDITSisonly6.3percent,whichyieldsanimplicitdeflatorof27.3percent.

ItsnottheCSOsfault,blameitontheIMF.TheIMFrecommends/mandatesthatofficialquarterlyestimatesofGDPbebasedonhistoricalannualestimatesofrealDITS.Attheendofthefiscalyear,alldataareavailableandtrueestimatescanobtained.SonoticewhattheCSOhasdoneithasassumedrealDITSgrowthtobeclosetothehistoricalnormof6percent(asperIMFrecommendations),andallowedtheverylargeresidualtobethepricechange!

TheGDPdeflatorpuzzleissolved.GVAdeflatoraccountingfor93percentofGDPhasadeflatorofzeroand7percent(DITS)hasadeflatorof27.3percent.AggregateGDPdeflatorinflationof(0.93x0+0.07x27.3)of1.9percent.Eureka,puzzlesolved,QED.

SowhatistherealGDPgrowthin2015:2?Twomethods:First,thenominalgrowthinGDP(CSOfigures)in2015:2was8.8percentwithacorrectGDPdeflatorofzeropercent,thisdirectestimateofrealGDPgrowthwouldbe8.8percent.Second,withDITS,oneobtains(0.07x27.3)or1.9percentastheextraGDPgrowthmissedoutbytheCSO/IMFestimate,thatis,GDPgrowthwas(7+1.9)percent.Soyoucantakeyourpick:GDPgrowth,correctlyestimated,in2015:2was8.8or8.9percentnotthereported7percent.

Anadditionalquestioninsearchofananswer:WhyhasDITSgrownatsuchanenormous(big,large,)ratethisyear?Mostlyoil,andalsosomereductioninsubsidies.Haveyounoticedthatwhiletheimportedoilpriceislessthanhalfof


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whatitwaslastyear,thedomesticpriceofpetrolhasstayedvirtuallyconstant?Iexaggerate(overstated,),itisdownbyabout10percent.Thegovernment(bothCentreandstates)haspocketedalmosttheentirefallinoilpricesintheformofhighertaxes.

Oiltaxrevenueaddstogrowthandwithlittleextraexpenditures,theextrataxrevenuestranslateintoareductioninthefiscaldeficit.Eveniftherearenoadditionalgains,this2percentgaininonequartertranslatesintoanannualreductioninthefiscaldeficitofaround0.5percentofGDP.

Butdoesgrowthfeellike9or7percent?Absolutelythelatter,asalsoindicatedbythegrowthinvalueaddedestimatesofagriculture,industryandservices.Sowhatsthemeaningof9percentgrowth?Assumeforamomentthegovernmentsuddenlydiscoveredgoldworth2percentofGDPandsolditandusedallofitsrevenuestoparedowndebt.Then,GDPgrowthwouldbe9percentbutfeellike7percent.

ThispointstoanimportantdifferencebetweentheBJPandtheSoniaGandhiledUPA.TheUPAreceivedawindfallgain(lowoilprices)in2009andsquandered(waste,)it,possiblyintheinterestsofwinninganelection.TheBJPhasbeenalotmoreresponsibleandseemstobededicatedtodoingtherightthingfortheeconomybringingdowninflation,reducingthefiscaldeficit,evenifitmeanssacrificingsomeshorttermgrowthinGDPandjobs.

WhenandhowwillIndiaseeaGDPgrowthclosetoitspotentialof810percent?ImeanrealGDPgrowthof9percent,accompaniedbygrowthinjobsandeconomywidegrowthandnotbythedeclineinoilprices.Therearenomagicwands(stick,),butthereisatimetestedpolicy:Makerealpolicyratescompetitivewiththerestoftheworld.And25bpswilljustnotdoit.ItsnowovertotheRBI.


Sunday,September13,2015

Mumbaimeatban:GetoffthebanwagonThecontagion(infection,)ofmeatbansgrippingstateafterstateisproducingafogofmendacious(false,)arguments.Ithastobestatedclearlyandinplainterms:Thesebansviolatefundamentalliberties,erodethesecularcharacterofthestate,harmthecausesofvegetarianismandnonviolencetheyareostensibly(apparently,)designedtoencourage,anddisplaydeepdisrespectforreligion.Nohistoricaljugglery(artfultrickery,)andrhetoric(loudandconfusedtalk,)cangetaroundthis.

Takethehistoricaljuggleryfirst.ItistruethatevenCongressgovernmentsoftenbannedmeat.ButthatonlyshowsthattheCongresswasopportunisticanddeeplymuddled(confused,)aboutindividualliberty.Italsofreelyconnived(conspiracy,)withaninvisiblebutinsidious(dangerous,)communalism.ItistimewemovedpasttheCongresssmistakesandreimaginedIndiaasazoneofindividualfreedom,notaprisonhouseofcommunalpiety.TheCongressdiditargumentisanecessaryhistoricaldiagnosis.Itisnotaremotelyplausible(believable,)normativeclaim.

Thesecondmendacioushistoricalargumentisthepracticesofpremodernstates.Wecite(mention,)examplesofAkbarorprincelystatesobservingvariouskindsofmeatbansaroundfestivals,orevenprohibitionsonbeef.Thesewereoftentreatedasgesturestopromotecommunalharmony.Butitisamarkofjusthowconfusedweareaboutmodernconstitutionalpoliticsthatweseepremodernstatesasdefiningourconstitutionalandlegalhorizons.Manyofthesestatescouldbebenevolent(generous,),buttheywereembeddedinstructuresthatdidnotrecogniseindividuallibertyandrightsinthemodernsense.

Tolerationorrespectwasdependentuponthebenevolenceoftheruler,notclaimedasamatterofindividualright.Thestateneededtolerationbecauseitdidnotgrantrightsitneededgesturesofinclusionbecauserulersfreelyprofessedthehegemony(dominance,)oftheirreligion.Inamodernstate,itcannotbethestatesbusinesstotellpeoplewhattoeat,unlessonpublichealthorsuchgrounds.Thestrengthofamodernstateisthatitdoesnotmakerightsdependentonapoliticsofgestureorbenevolence.Mylibertycannotbeheldhostageto

someoneelsesbeliefs.

Thethirdstrangeargumentisthatmeatbansareasignofrespect.Themoreyoubaninthenameofreligion,themorederision(ridicule,)youwillevokeforit.InthecaseofMaharashtra,respectisostensiblybeingextendedtoJains.ThisisatypicalBJPmove:Invokeminoritiesforwhatisessentiallyaplayofbrutemajoritarianpower.First,arealcultureofrespectinadiversesocietywouldinvolvegenuinereciprocity(mutualexchange,).

Iwonderwhatthevotaries(supporter,x)ofmeatbanswouldthinkofcompulsoryfastingfornonMuslimsonanumberofdaysduringRamzan,sincefastingitselfwouldnotviolateanyethicalprinciples.Therespectargumentisbunkum(nonsense,).Itisasymmetricingettingotherstogiveuptheirlibertyforonereligion.Thisisnotrespectitsanexerciseofpower.Respectisnotsomethingthatsimposed.Coercion(forcing,)istheantithesisofrespect.

Theotherresponsetothisasymmetrywilloftenbetocompensatebyfindinggesturesofrespectforotherreligions.ButIndiansecularismhasbeenmarredbythiscompetitivepoliticsofrespect,whichbreedsgroupinsecurityandcompetition.Thestatewillalwayslookpartisanhere.Therearesomanysensitiveissuesonwhichwehavetodelicatelymovetowardsamoremodernregime(rule,)basedoncitizenshipacommoncivilcodeoratleastaframeworkforequalgenderrights,thebizarre(strange,)discrimination(partiality,)wehaveinstitutedwheremajorityruneducationinstitutionscannothavetheautonomythatminorityonesdobutthesecanonlybetackledwhenthestatedoesnotexude(releaseindrops,)awhiff(glance,)ofpartisanandculturalhegemony.

Thefourthselfdefeatingargumentisthatsomehowthesemeatbanswillactuallypromotelesscruelty,ormorevegetarianism.Ihappentobeavegetarian.Ibelievethereistoomuchunnecessaryviolenceintheslaughterofanimalsforconsumptionandsoon.Iwouldpreferaworldinwhichthesebeliefsweremorewidelysharedandbecamedefaultcommonsense.Ihopethesevaluescanonedaybedefendednotasbeliefsofaparticularreligion,butasproductsofpublicreason.Theyshouldbeobjectsofgenuineethicalconversion.Butwehavenotyetarrivedatthatpoint.Statebansmakethepossibilityofahealthydebateoverthesethingslesslikely.Theytieissueslikevegetarianismornonviolencetosectarianidentities,nottoethicalvaluestheyrelocatethemfromtherealm(area,)ofrationalandmoral


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argumenttothedomainofculturalpolitics.Theminutethesevaluesbecomeanactofculturalpower,theyinvitemoreresistance.ItishardtolocatevegetarianismonaplaneotherthanBrahmanism,JainismorSanskritisation,sojustraisingtheseissuesbecomesamatterofcompetingidentities,notmoralarguments.

Inaneraofindividualliberty,themerefactthatsomethingisimposeddoesandshouldmakeitanobjectofsuspicion.Paradoxically,itiseasiertodiscuss,evenproselytise,thesevalueswhenthereisnothreatofaban.Similarly,thereareissueswithbansonliquor.TherearegenuinesocialissueswithdrinkinginIndia,andtheviolenceanddevastationitbrings.Buttheminutethespectreofmassivestateintrusionisraisedbytheprospectofaban,itbecomeshardertosensitivelyconfronttheseissues.Themoreyouusestatepowertobanthings,themoretheywillbecontested.Likeourdemandsforbansonbooks,theintentistoassertcommunitypoweranddrawattention,notsolvearealproblem.

AgenuinesecularisminIndiarequiresthattheforcesofindividuallibertybegivenpriorityoversocialorthodoxy,thatourrightsascitizensbecomeprogressivelydetachedfromourparticularidentities,thatthereisgenuinedistrustofthestatesintrusivepoweroverindividuallives.Bypushingusbackintothecompetitivepoliticsofrespect,theBJPisstokingtheveryfiresitwantedtoavoid.Bymakingstatepowerregulateintimateaspectsofourlives,likewhatweeatanddrinkandwear,itisdisplayingitscommitmenttomaximumgovernment.Andbyconstantlychangingthenarrativebacktoidentitypolitics,itisdisplayingjusthowfragile(weak,)andfaltering(unsteady,)itsgriponnewIndiais.Nowonderthegovernmentseemsdistractedandconfused.


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Friday,September11,2015

Theyarerefugees,notmigrantsEuropeiswitnessingprobablythegreatestmovementofpeoplesincetheSecondWorldWar.Overthelastseveralmonths,hundredsofthousandsofmen,womenandchildrenfromSyria,Afghanistan,Iraq,EritreaandSubSaharanAfricahavebeenriskingtheirliveseachdayinabidtoreachEurope.Thousandshaveperished(dead,)intheattempt.TheharrowingimageofthebodyofthreeyearoldAylanKurdiwashedashoreontheTurkishcoastlinehasbecomethedefiningimageofthehumanitariancrisisthatispresentlyunfolding.Thecrisisisonlyexpectedtoworsen,withtheUnitedNationsforecastingthatover3,000peopleadaywilltrytoreachWesternEuropealoneinthenextfewmonths.Thenumberoffatalities(humandeath,)isalsoexpectedtorise.TheincreasingpublicattentionbeinggiventothesituationinEuropehasthrownintosharpfocusthepoliciesofseveralprominentEuropeangovernmentstowardssuchdisplacedpersons.

Consequenceofterminology

AsthecrisisintheMediterraneanhasunfolded,anumberofEuropeanpoliticiansandmediahouseshavechosentoconsistentlyreferitasamigrantcrisis.Themajorityofthemen,womenandchildrentryingtoreachEuropeanshoreshavebeenportrayedaseconomicmigrantsinsearchofabetterlife.Inabidtoincitenationalistictendencies,thedisplacedpersonshavebeencomparedtomarauders()posingathreattothestandardoflivingandsocialstructureofaprivilegedEuropeansociety.Thechoiceinterminologyandthatfollowssuitisnotwhollywithoutconsequence(result,),bothlegalandotherwise.

Inlaw,thedistinctionbetweenarefugeeandamigrantisofgreatsignificance.Firstandforemost,refugeesenjoyadistinctanduniquestandardofprotectionunderinternationallaw.Arefugeehasbeendefinedunderthe1951RefugeeConventionoftheUNHCRandits1967Protocolasanypersonwho,owingtoawellfoundedfearofbeingpersecutedforreasonsofrace,nationality,membershipofaparticularsocialgrouporpoliticalnotion(opinion,),isoutsideofthe

countryofhisnationalityandisunable,orisowingtosuchfear,isreluctant(unwilling,)toavailhimselftheprotectionofthatcountry.Withtheevolutionofinternationalrefugeelaw,thisdefinitionofconventionrefugeeshasbeenexpandedtocoverpersonswhohavefledtheircountriesduetoarmedconflicts(battle,),internalturmoil(violentdisturbance,)andsituationsinvolvinggrossandsystematicviolationofhumanrights.Suchpersonsaretypicallyreferredtoashumanitarianrefugees.Refugeesenjoycertainspecialprotectionsunderlaw,suchassafetyfromdeportationtothecountrywheretheyfacepersecutionprotectionofbasichumanrightswithoutracialorreligiousdiscrimination(partiality,),orofnationaloriginaccesstofairandefficientasylum(shelter,)proceduresprovisionofadministrativeassistance,andsoon.

ContrarytowhatsomeEuropeanleadersandmediahouseswouldhaveusbelieve,thecrisisunfoldingintheMediterraneanismostlyaboutrefugees.

Ontheotherhand,migrants(personswhochoosetoleavetheirhomestate,principallyinsearchofabetterlife,asopposedtoescapingsomeformofpersecution,internalstrifeorarmedconflict)donotenjoyanyprotectionand/orprivilegesunderinternationallaw.Countriesarethereforeatlibertytodealwithmigrantsundertheirownimmigrationlawsandprocesses.

Outsideofthelaw,thechoiceofterminologyisofcriticalimportanceinshapingtheperception,attitudesandbehaviourofthepublicatlargeandcanimpactthelivesandsafetyofdisplacedpersons.Beingamigrantimpliesachoice,exercisedvoluntarily,toseekabetterlifefromthatofferedinthehomecountry,andnotaninvoluntaryact,broughtonbytheinstinctofselfpreservationfromthethreatofpersecution,internalstrife(discord,conflict,)orarmedconflictinthehomecountry.Thelatterisperceived,rightlyorwrongly,tobealegitimatereasonformovementacrossbordersoneinwhichtheworldcommunityhasasharedcollectiveinterest.Therefore,theconflationofrefugeeswithmigrantscanseriouslyundermineandprejudicethepublicsupportavailabletosuchdisplacedpersons,onethatiscriticaltotheprotectionofsuchdisplacedpersons.

ContrarytowhatsomeEuropeanleadersandmediahouseswouldhaveusbelieve,thecrisisunfoldingintheMediterraneanismostlyaboutrefugees.Themajorityofthemen,womenandchildrenarereportedlyfromSyria,EritreaandAfghanistancountriesplagued(suffer,)bycivilwar,grosshumanrightsviolationsand

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religiousinsurgency.ThisisnottosuggestthatnomigrantsaretryingtoreachEuropeinsearchofabetterlifethanthatofferedintheirhomecountry.Indeed,muchofthedisplacedpopulationsfromSubSaharanAfricaaremigrants.Nevertheless,byusingtheexpressionmigrantcrisistobroadlyrefertotheentirespectrumoftheongoingcrisisintheMediterranean,Europeanleadersandmediahousesaretryingtodesensitisethepublicatlargebymisleadingthemabouttherealnatureofthecrisisunfoldingtherein.


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