The HAZUS Hurricane Model The HAZUS Hurricane Model and Its Use in Mitigationand Its Use in Mitigation

National Hurricane ConferenceNational Hurricane ConferenceOrlando, April 2002Orlando, April 2002

Program OutlineProgram Outline

Barbara Schauer, National Institute of Building Barbara Schauer, National Institute of Building Sciences, Moderator Sciences, Moderator

• HAZUS Program OverviewHAZUS Program Overview: Ed Laatsch, Federal : Ed Laatsch, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Emergency Management Agency,

• Wind Committee Technical Oversight Role Wind Committee Technical Oversight Role ::

Joe Minor, Chairman, University of Missouri – Rolla, Joe Minor, Chairman, University of Missouri – Rolla, • Wind Model Methodology OverviewWind Model Methodology Overview::

Peter Vickery, Applied Research Associates, Inc.Peter Vickery, Applied Research Associates, Inc.• Wind Model Software DemonstrationWind Model Software Demonstration::

Frank Lavelle, Applied Research Associates, Inc.Frank Lavelle, Applied Research Associates, Inc.

Overview of the HAZUS Multihazard Overview of the HAZUS Multihazard Loss Estimation ProgramLoss Estimation Program

Ed Laatsch, FEMA Mitigation DirectorateEd Laatsch, FEMA Mitigation DirectorateWashington, D.C.Washington, D.C.

VisionVision

To Reduce the Loss of Life and To Reduce the Loss of Life and Property and Protect Institutions from Property and Protect Institutions from

Natural Hazards by Leading and Natural Hazards by Leading and Supporting the Nation in a Supporting the Nation in a

Comprehensive, Risk-based, Comprehensive, Risk-based, Emergency Management Program of Emergency Management Program of Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, Mitigation, Preparedness, Response,

and Recovery.and Recovery.

Loss EstimationLoss Estimation

• Calculation of damage and economic Calculation of damage and economic loss to buildings and infrastructure.loss to buildings and infrastructure.

• Includes determining casualties, shelter Includes determining casualties, shelter requirements and indirect economic requirements and indirect economic loss.loss.

Program Accomplishments and Program Accomplishments and ObjectivesObjectives

• Developed versions of an earthquake loss Developed versions of an earthquake loss estimation program called “HAZUS” in estimation program called “HAZUS” in 1997, 1999 and 2000.1997, 1999 and 2000.

• Developing HAZUS Multi-Hazard to Developing HAZUS Multi-Hazard to include loss estimation for hurricane, include loss estimation for hurricane, flood and earthquake hazards.flood and earthquake hazards.

• HAZUS is PC/GIS based software HAZUS is PC/GIS based software program available from FEMA.program available from FEMA.

HAZUSHAZUS

• Major HAZUS consortiums in San Major HAZUS consortiums in San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.Francisco, Los Angeles and New York.

• Over 1,500 copies distributed to federal Over 1,500 copies distributed to federal agencies, local emergency managers, fire agencies, local emergency managers, fire departments, universities and others.departments, universities and others.

• Considerable international interest.Considerable international interest.

HAZUSHAZUS

• HAZUS is used for FEMA’s first HAZUS is used for FEMA’s first estimate of losses following an estimate of losses following an earthquake.earthquake.

• Information used in support of response Information used in support of response and recovery operations.and recovery operations.

• Utilized in the Seattle Earthquake.Utilized in the Seattle Earthquake.

Multihazard HAZUSMultihazard HAZUS

• Preview Hurricane and Flood Models to Preview Hurricane and Flood Models to be released with HAZUS in 2002.be released with HAZUS in 2002.

• Hurricane Model development will Hurricane Model development will continue to 2004/5.continue to 2004/5.

• Other wind hazard models - Other wind hazard models - thunderstorm, hail, tornado – to be thunderstorm, hail, tornado – to be developed for future releases.developed for future releases.

• Funding by FEMA.Funding by FEMA.• Management by the National Institute Management by the National Institute

of Building Sciences.of Building Sciences.• Technical oversight by Expert Technical oversight by Expert

Committees.Committees.• Technical development and testing by Technical development and testing by

Specialized Consultants.Specialized Consultants.• User involvement throughout User involvement throughout

development.development.

ProjectProject TeamTeam

Technical OversightTechnical Oversight

• Committees for wind (7), flood (12), Committees for wind (7), flood (12), earthquake (9) and software (7).earthquake (9) and software (7).

• Committee members selected for Committee members selected for their national expertise and user their national expertise and user interests.interests.

• FEMA oversight for program FEMA oversight for program coordination.coordination.

DevelopersDevelopers

• Hurricane: Applied Research AssociatesHurricane: Applied Research Associates• Flood: ABS ConsultingFlood: ABS Consulting• Earthquake Software: Durham Earthquake Software: Durham

TechnologiesTechnologies• Earthquake Methodology: Charles Earthquake Methodology: Charles

Kircher Associates, Comartin-ReisKircher Associates, Comartin-Reis• Developers selected based on Developers selected based on

qualification-based competitive processesqualification-based competitive processes

HAZUS Methodology HAZUS Methodology FlowchartFlowchart

VulnerabilityVulnerability InventoryInventoryHazardHazard

Input

LossEstimates

DamageDamage Direct PhysicalDirect Physical InducedInduced SocialSocial Direct EconomicDirect Economic Indirect EconomicIndirect Economic

DamageDamage Direct PhysicalDirect Physical InducedInduced SocialSocial Direct EconomicDirect Economic Indirect EconomicIndirect Economic

Validation / Calibration

Validation / Calibration

Output

Potential HAZUS ApplicationsPotential HAZUS Applications• MitigationMitigation

- - Study alternativesStudy alternatives- Future land use planning- Future land use planning

• Regional Emergency ManagementRegional Emergency Management-- Post-disaster damage assessment and ground-Post-disaster damage assessment and ground-truthingtruthing-- Response planning Response planning - Risk Assessment for buildings and infrastructure- Risk Assessment for buildings and infrastructure

• Recovery PlanningRecovery Planning- Recovery action planning- Recovery action planning- Long-term economic recovery planning- Long-term economic recovery planning

Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning

HAZUSHAZUS

Quick Situation Assessment

Quick Situation Assessment

Response & Recovery

Response & Recovery

Operational Response Planning

Operational Response Planning

Mitigation Strategies

Mitigation Strategies

Building Code AdministrationBuilding Code Administration

Future Land Use Planning

Future Land Use Planning

Performance Measures

Performance MeasuresPlanning and Exercise

ScenariosPlanning and Exercise

Scenarios

Awareness & Preparedness

Awareness & Preparedness

Criteria for Sustainable Communities

Criteria for Sustainable Communities

Mitigation StrategiesMitigation Strategies

• Simulating Long Term Effects (i.e., Simulating Long Term Effects (i.e., Future Disasters)Future Disasters)

• Study the Cost Impact of Alternative Study the Cost Impact of Alternative Mitigation StrategiesMitigation Strategies

• Examples:Examples:– Regulating, Strengthening, or Removing Regulating, Strengthening, or Removing

Unsafe StructuresUnsafe Structures– Establishing Safer Sites for Waste Disposal Establishing Safer Sites for Waste Disposal – Improving Land Use PlanningImproving Land Use Planning

Readiness, Response and Readiness, Response and RecoveryRecovery

• Use of HAZUS Results to Support Use of HAZUS Results to Support USACE Mission Assignments:USACE Mission Assignments:– Temporary HousingTemporary Housing– Debris RemovalDebris Removal– Emergency WaterEmergency Water– Emergency PowerEmergency Power– Dam InspectionDam Inspection– Emergency Route ClearanceEmergency Route Clearance

• Readiness & Response ExercisesReadiness & Response Exercises

Technical Oversight Role of the Technical Oversight Role of the HAZUS Wind CommitteeHAZUS Wind Committee

Joe MinorJoe Minor

Wind Committee ChairmanWind Committee Chairman

MembersMembers

Arthur Chiu Doug Smits Mark PowellArthur Chiu Doug Smits Mark Powell

Robert McComb Kishor MehtaRobert McComb Kishor Mehta

Joseph Minor Masoud ZadehJoseph Minor Masoud Zadeh

Dale C. PerryDale C. PerryRichard D. MarshallRichard D. Marshall

Committee OperationCommittee Operation

Empowered to review and approve Empowered to review and approve approach, technical content, and approach, technical content, and proceduresprocedures

Directly influenced model concept, Directly influenced model concept, methodology, documentation, and resultsmethodology, documentation, and results

Committee ContributionsCommittee Contributions

• Selection of SOTA model componentsSelection of SOTA model components

• Approach to wind-damage algorithmsApproach to wind-damage algorithms

• Delineation of vulnerability relationshipsDelineation of vulnerability relationships

• Building classification systemBuilding classification system

• Validation of components and ‘end-to-Validation of components and ‘end-to-end’end’

Insurance ModelsInsurance Models

HURRICANEBUILDING

INVENTORY

Velocityvs.$

INSUREDLOSS

“Black Box”

HAZUS Wind ModelHAZUS Wind Model

HURRICANEBUILDING

INVENTORY

Velocityvs.

Damage

HISTORICALLOSS DATA

Cost of Physical Damage

PhysicalDamage

VALIDATE

Documented

Overview of HAZUS Wind Overview of HAZUS Wind Loss Estimation Loss Estimation

MethodologyMethodology

Peter VickeryPeter VickeryApplied Research Associates, Inc.Applied Research Associates, Inc.

Raleigh, NCRaleigh, NC

OverviewOverview

• Brief Discussion of the Approach Used to Brief Discussion of the Approach Used to develop the HAZUS wind loss develop the HAZUS wind loss methodologymethodology

• Example Effect of Mitigation on Example Effect of Mitigation on Reduction in Average Annual LossesReduction in Average Annual Losses

• Presentation of the HAZUS PrototypePresentation of the HAZUS Prototype

HAZUS Wind Hazard-Load-HAZUS Wind Hazard-Load-Damage-Loss FrameworkDamage-Loss Framework

1. Extreme Wind Hazards

Extratropical Cyclones

2. Structural Load/Response ModelsWind Loading Effects

MissilesPressure Atmospheric Pressure Change

Structural Response Model

Thunderstorms Hurricanes Tornadoes

Envelope Frame

3. Structure/Physical DamageInterior Contents

4. Risk Assessment and Loss Analysis

Vulnerable Components Mitigation/Retrofit Loss Analysis

Buildings Facilities Systems Building Classes

Individual Risk Formulation Individual Risk Formulation MethodologyMethodology

Windspeed

$

Hazard Validate

Wind Loads Validate

Resistances Validate

Hazard + Loads + Resistances = External Damage

Exterior Physical Damage

Validate

$ Losses Validate

Interior/ContentsPhysical Damage

Validate

Wind Loss EstimationWind Loss Estimation ApproachApproach• Approach has focused on Approach has focused on

developing wind loss analysis developing wind loss analysis methods for individual buildings as methods for individual buildings as the foundation for building the foundation for building classification and loss studies.classification and loss studies.

• The individual building loss The individual building loss methodology has been applied to methodology has been applied to commercial, residential, and high commercial, residential, and high potential loss facilities. potential loss facilities.

• Extensive validation has been Extensive validation has been performed and is continuing performed and is continuing against multiple databases.against multiple databases.

• Individual building analysis Individual building analysis provides a standardized method to provides a standardized method to address mitigation and building address mitigation and building code issues, and to develop damage code issues, and to develop damage functions for each building class.functions for each building class.

Individual building risk/loss Individual building risk/loss analysis is the foundation of the analysis is the foundation of the HAZUS wind engineering-based HAZUS wind engineering-based lossloss analysis methodology

Individual Building Risk/Loss

Step 4.

Step 3.

Step 2.

Step 1.

Building Stock Surveys,Databases, and/or User

Specific Inputs

Building/Facility WindClassification System

Regional Portfolio

Loss Analysis

MitigationMitigation• Because HAZUS uses a load and resistance Because HAZUS uses a load and resistance

approach to estimate damage and the ensuing loss approach to estimate damage and the ensuing loss it is able to model the effects of mitigationit is able to model the effects of mitigation

• Preview model will allow for mitigation to be Preview model will allow for mitigation to be applied to single family residential buildings.applied to single family residential buildings.

• Mitigation methods include:Mitigation methods include:– Addition of hurricane strapsAddition of hurricane straps– Application of window protection (shutters, laminated Application of window protection (shutters, laminated

glass)glass)– Effects of re-nailing roof sheathing on damage/lossEffects of re-nailing roof sheathing on damage/loss– Application of secondary water protectionApplication of secondary water protection– Combinations of the aboveCombinations of the above

Single Family Residential BuildingsSingle Family Residential Buildings

• Building Characteristics:Building Characteristics:– (1) Roof Shape:(1) Roof Shape: Hip vs. Hip vs.

GableGable– (2) Roof Wall Connections:(2) Roof Wall Connections: Strap vs. Toe Strap vs. Toe

NailNail– (3) Roof Sheathing Attachment:(3) Roof Sheathing Attachment: 6d vs. 8d6d vs. 8d– (4) Number of Stories:(4) Number of Stories: One vs TwoOne vs Two– (5) Effect of Garage Door(5) Effect of Garage Door None, 10 psf, None, 10 psf,

20 psf20 psf– (6) Wall Construction:(6) Wall Construction:

Wood/URM/RMWood/URM/RM• Total Number of Potential Classes is:Total Number of Potential Classes is:

– 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 3 = 1442 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 3 = 144• Total Number of Basic Single Family Building TypesTotal Number of Basic Single Family Building Types

– 144 x (3 Quality Factors) = 432144 x (3 Quality Factors) = 432

Single Family Residential Mitigation Single Family Residential Mitigation StudiesStudies

• Building Damage States vs. Wind Speed Building Damage States vs. Wind Speed Developed varying the followingDeveloped varying the following– (1) Add Shutters(1) Add Shutters– (2) Re Nail Roof at 6” OC Throughout and Upgrade (2) Re Nail Roof at 6” OC Throughout and Upgrade

ShinglesShingles– (3) Upgrade Roof (# 2 Above) and Add Shutters (#1 (3) Upgrade Roof (# 2 Above) and Add Shutters (#1

Above)Above)• Total Number of Mitigation Cases:Total Number of Mitigation Cases:

– 96x3 = 28896x3 = 288• Total Number of ALL Residential Buildings Total Number of ALL Residential Buildings

(Mitigated and As Built)(Mitigated and As Built)– 288 + 432 = 720288 + 432 = 720

Effect of Building Parameters on Effect of Building Parameters on Damage StateDamage State

• Toe Nail to StrapToe Nail to Strap 5% to 30% Increase5% to 30% Increase• Hip to GableHip to Gable 15% to 25% Increase15% to 25% Increase• One Story to Two StoryOne Story to Two Story 40% to 70% Increase40% to 70% Increase• 6d Sheathing Nails to 8d Sheathing Nails6d Sheathing Nails to 8d Sheathing Nails 0 - 15%0 - 15% IncreaseIncrease• URM vs. WoodURM vs. Wood ~0~0• RM vs. URMRM vs. URM ~0~0• No Garage to 20 psf Garage No Garage to 20 psf Garage ~0 ~0 • No Garage to 10 psf Garage No Garage to 10 psf Garage ~0-25% Increase~0-25% Increase• ShuttersShutters 6% to 22% Decrease6% to 22% Decrease• Upgrade roof deck/coverUpgrade roof deck/cover 17% to 44% decrease17% to 44% decrease• Shutters and RoofShutters and Roof 30% to 60% Decrease30% to 60% Decrease• Effect of any one parameter on the building damage is coupled with Effect of any one parameter on the building damage is coupled with

changes in other parameters.changes in other parameters.• Wall Construction Does not Impact Average Building Damage States. Wall Construction Does not Impact Average Building Damage States.

Information will only be needed for casualty estimates.Information will only be needed for casualty estimates.

Effect of Mitigation on Average Annual Effect of Mitigation on Average Annual Losses (Valid in South Florida)Losses (Valid in South Florida)

• Addition of ShuttersAddition of Shutters– 10% to 30% Reduction in AAL10% to 30% Reduction in AAL

• Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof CoverUpgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof Cover– 7% to 50% Reduction in AAL7% to 50% Reduction in AAL

• Add Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Add Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof CoverRoof Cover– 35% to 65% Reduction in AAL35% to 65% Reduction in AAL

• Add Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Add Shutters, Upgrade Roof Sheathing and Roof Cover, add Secondary WaterRoof Cover, add Secondary Water ProtectionProtection– 40% to 80% Reduction in AAL40% to 80% Reduction in AAL