The Harm that Engineers Do
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The Harm that Engineers Do • Category 1: Unexpected, unintentional harm. • Category 2: Expected, unintentional harm.
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The Harm that Engineers Do. Category 1: Unexpected, unintentional harm . Category 2: Expected, unintentional harm. Example: A new drug cures 90% of cancer cases. In 100% of cases, there are serious side-effects: hair loss and severe gastro-intestinal discomfort, often leading to ulcers. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Harm that Engineers Do
The Harm that Engineers Do
• Category 1: Unexpected, unintentional harm.
• Category 2: Expected, unintentional harm.
Example:
A new drug cures 90% of cancer cases.
In 100% of cases, there are serious side-effects: hair loss and severe gastro-intestinal discomfort, often leading to ulcers.
The 10% not cured suffer expected, unintended harm.
Example:
A new product has been developed that willmake life easier and more convenient forpeople.
Its side-effects will kill 50,000 North Americans every year.
Should it be developed?
Car A: List price $20,000
Car B: List price $21,000
Questions for Cost-Benefit Analysis
Who pays the cost?
Who gets the benefit?
Who makes the decision?
What is the responsibility of the individual engineer?
Jettison heavy radio-isotope generator:
Generator debris increases radiation deaths by 50 (total) worldwide over next 10 years
50% chance Shuttle survives
Don’t jettison:
No chance Shuttle survives, 50% chancegenerator stays intact.
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Time Value of Money
How much must I promise to pay you next September to get you to lend me $100 right now?
(assuming your final grade is not affected either way)
Time Value of Money
Getting $M next September is as good as getting $M/(1+i) right now
So getting $M in n years is as good as getting
$M/(1+i)n right now
Time Value of Money
From the results just calculated, we can deduce that:
Saving the lives of ten billion people in 3000 ADis worth
10 10 lives * 10 7 $/life----------------------------- right now. (1.05)994
Time Value of Money
10 10 lives * 10 7 $/life----------------------------- = $0.06. (1.05)994
You run a lab that develops cereal crops for the FAO. One of
your genetic engineers has developed a strain of rice with very high
yields, protein and vitamin content.
On the way to the press conference, the
engineer tells you that to create this rice, she has spliced segments of cow and pig DNA
into the cereal genome.
The rice could prevent malnutrition in many parts of the world.
But if these genetic modifications become known, many people will refuse to eat it.
So, the engineer suggests, no-one else needs to be told.
