The Great Recession and Poverty January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 1...
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The Great Recession and Poverty January 19, 2012 January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 1 Suzanne Porter Oregon Department Of Human Services Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 503.945.9778 FAX: 503.378.2897 [email protected]
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Transcript of The Great Recession and Poverty January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 1...
The Great Recession and Poverty
January 19, 2012
January 19, 2012 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 1
Suzanne Porter
Oregon Department Of Human Services
Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
503.945.9778
FAX: 503.378.2897
Newly Poor in the Great Recession
First detailed look at the work characteristics of SNAP households – working age and not disabled
Compared two SNAP intake cohorts: CY 2005 and FY 2009 Expansionary vs. recessionary period
Household structure, demographics, and work history of head of householder
http://oregonstate.edu/cla/mpp/sites/default/files/pdf/newpoor_0.pdf
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Comparing the 2009 with 2005 cohort: The total number of households increased by 58% The number of new households in 2009 was nearly as large as the total
number of households in 2005
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Multi-adult households nearly doubled
Higher rates of growth among older households
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Full-time worker households nearly doubled Households experiencing a drop in earned income more than
doubled Average percentage drop in earnings ≈ 1/3
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Work history analyzed for the year prior to SNAP receipt
Drop in earned income measured in quarter immediately preceding start of SNAP
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Men disproportionately affected
Number of adult males in SNAP cohort increased by 73% 46% of 2005 cohort to 49% of 2009 cohort
Increase partially due to disruption in construction and manufacturing sectors
Men comprised 69% of SNAP recipients with manufacturing job history, 93% of those with construction job history
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Poor in Great Recession
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Two years later, how has the recession changed the composition of the SNAP caseload?
Compared two snapshot populations: June 2006 and June 2011
Caseload change – working age adults
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
All households Working age households*
SNAP Caseload: June 2006 v. June 2011
2006 2011
*Households headed by a non-disabled adult age 18 to 59+96%
+113%
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Demographic measures
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Female Male 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 59
SNAP Caseload June 2006 v. June 2011*
2006 2011
*Households headed by an adult age 18 to 59
+87%
+164%
+123%
+103%
+128%
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Household composition
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Single male nochild
Single femalechildren
Single female nochild
Multi-adultchildren
Multi-adult nochild
Single malechildren
SNAP Caseload: June 2006 v. June 2011*
2006 2011
*Households headed by an adult aged 18 to 59
+177%
+121%+51%
+103%
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Work history
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Not working in Second Quarter Working in Second Quarter Hours>120 Worked during SNAP receipt
SNAP Caseload: June 2006 v. June 2011*
2006 2011
*Households headed by an adult aged 18 to 59+158%
+69%
+74% +82%
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Single-person households
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
All Female Male 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 59
SNAP Caseload: November 2006 v. November 2011*
2006 2011
*Households composed of a single adult age 18 to 59
+152%
+121%
+177%
+199%
+141%
+129%
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Single-person households, 18 to 24
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Females Males Not working in Second Quarter Working in Second Quarter
SNAP Caseload: June 2006 v. June 2011*
2006 2011*Households composed of a single adult age 18 to 24 +277%
+131%
+155%
+250%
Young adults
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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18 to 24 year olds were part of a baby-boomlet that occurred between 1987 and 1993
This cohort is coming of age during a period of high unemployment
Potential long-term consequences
Poor in Great Recession
January 19, 2012DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis
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Early in the recession, the story was job loss
That story has changed to joblessness
Males & young adults have been particularly affected
