The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y...

31
1 The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd. Business & Financial Review January 2016

Transcript of The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y...

Page 1: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.

Business & Financial Review

January 2016

Page 2: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Forward Looking StatementsExcept for historical information, the statements made in this presentationconstitute forward looking statements. These include statements regarding theintent, belief or current expectations of GE Shipping and its managementregarding the Company’s operations, strategic directions, prospects and futureresults which in turn involve certain risks and uncertainties.

Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those containedin the forward looking statements; including changes in freight rates; globaleconomic and business conditions; effects of competition and technologicaldevelopments; changes in laws and regulations; difficulties in achieving costsavings; currency, fuel price and interest rate fluctuations etc.

The Company assumes no responsibility with regard to publicly amending,modifying or revising the statements based on any subsequent developments,information or events that may occur.

Page 3: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Corporate Profile

Through subsidiaryGreatship (India) Limited

Dry bulk

Crude Tankers- Logistics

The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.Incorporated in 1948

Wet bulk

Shipping Business Offshore Business

- Drilling

Product Tankers

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Company at a glance

India’s largest private sector Shipping Company Diverse asset base with global operations Completed 67 years of operations Over 30 years of uninterrupted dividend track record

Shareholding Pattern as on September 30, 2015

Promoters30%

FII23%

Govt/FI20%

Bodies Corporate

6%

Public21%

Page 5: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Shipping business-owned fleet

30 ships aggregating 2.4 Mn dwt, avg. age 10.6 years

21 Tankers avg.age 12 years

- 8 Crude carriers (4 Suezmax, 4 Aframax) avg. age 13.2 years

- 12 Product tankers (4 LR1, 8 MR) avg. age 9.4 years

- 1 Very Large Gas Carrier avg. age 22.0 years

9 Dry bulk carriers avg. age 6.5 years

- 4 Kamsarmax - avg. age 4.0 years

- 5 Supramax - avg. age 9.4 years

Page 6: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Shipping business- CAPEX plan

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Total committed CAPEX: ~ USD 180 mn –ADD YR WISE CAPEX BRK UP)

Vessel Yard Expected Delivery

1 Medium Range Product Tanker STX Group Q4 FY16

3 Kamsarmax Dry Bulk Carriers Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding Co. Ltd, China

Q1 FY17, Q3 FY17 & Q4 FY18

Committed Capex ~ $140 million

Paid till 2014-15$19 mn

Newbuilding Vessels on Order

Paid YTD 2015-16$11 mn

(To be paid)2015-16

$40-45 mn

(To be paid)2016-17

$60-65 mn

1 Second-hand Medium Range Product Tanker on order – Delivery Q4 FY16

Page 7: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Asset Price Movement (5 yr old)- Tankers

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Timeline- Jan 2001 till Nov 2015

Amt in US$ mn

Source: Clarkson

020406080

100120140160180

2001

-01

2001

-09

2002

-05

2003

-01

2003

-09

2004

-05

2005

-01

2005

-09

2006

-05

2007

-01

2007

-09

2008

-05

2009

-01

2009

-09

2010

-05

2011

-01

2011

-09

2012

-05

2013

-01

2013

-09

2014

-05

2015

-01

2015

-09

USD mn VLCC Suezmax MR

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Asset Price Movement (5 yr old) – Dry Bulk

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Timeline- Jan 2001 till Nov 2015

Amt in US$ mn

Source: Clarkson

- 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

2001

-01

2001

-09

2002

-05

2003

-01

2003

-09

2004

-05

2005

-01

2005

-09

2006

-05

2007

-01

2007

-09

2008

-05

2009

-01

2009

-09

2010

-05

2011

-01

2011

-09

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-05

2013

-01

2013

-09

2014

-05

2015

-01

2015

-09

USD mn Capesize Panamax Supramax

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Asset Price Movement

9Source: Clarkson

Long-term year High /Low: (5 year old assets)

(Amt in $mn) High Low CurrentTankers

VLCC165 49

79(2008) (1994)

Suezmax105 32

59(2008) (1993)

MR46 20

29(2007) (1999)

Dry Bulk

Capesize155 25

29(2008) (1999)

Panamax92 14

16(2007) (1999)

Supramax75 13

15(2007) (1998)

Page 10: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

BDTI & BCTI Movement (Jan 2012 to Nov 2015)

10Source: Baltic Exchange

Crude tankers freight rates have risen significantly

• Low oil prices & contango – Contributing to Strategic storage & Commercial storage

respectively

• Strong refinery margins – Increase in crude processed

• Rise in end-user demand, especially for Gasoline in several countries

• Increase in OPEC crude production & exports

400

600

800

1,000

1,200Ja

n-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

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May

-13

Jul-1

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13

Nov

-13

Jan-

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Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

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Nov

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Mar

-15

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Jul-1

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Sep-

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Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index

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Oil surplus led to lower prices, in turn boosting refinery runs and demand

Source: Industry reports

Oil demand, Supply & Surplus Global refinery throughput & growth

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

growth (%)mbpd

Oil demand (mbpd)

Supply (mbpd)

Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

per centmbpd

Global Refinery Crude Throughput (mbpd)

Growth in Global Refinery throughput y-o-y (per cent)

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Strong refinery margins

Source: Industry reports

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Middle East refinery capacities get commissioned, Asia to account for bulk of future capacity additions

Source: Industry Reports

New refineries in Saudi Arabia (that came online in 2013-15) have already led to increase in products exports from the region

Closure of refineries in Europe witnessed delays on account of healthy refining margins & higher demand especially for

gasoline

New refineries in Saudi Arabia (that came online in 2013-15) have already led to increase in products exports from the region

Closure of refineries in Europe witnessed delays on account of healthy refining margins & higher demand especially for

gasoline

Future refinery capacity additions Middle East (Crude Throughput)

Page 14: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Overcapacity, potential refinery closures in the OECD region

Source: Industry Reports

Actual and forecast refinery closures

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Growing Product trade… Changing trade patterns

15Source: Industry Reports

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Nov

-99

Jun-

00

Jan-

01

Aug-

01

Mar

-02

Oct

-02

May

-03

Dec-

03

Jul-0

4

Feb-

05

Sep-

05

Apr-

06

Nov

-06

Jun-

07

Jan-

08

Aug-

08

Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Dec-

10

Jul-1

1

Feb-

12

Sep-

12

Apr-

13

Nov

-13

Jun-

14

Jan-

15

Aug-

15

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

BDI Movement (Jan 2001 to November 2015)

16Source: Baltic Exchange

China – moderation in growth, pollution control, rising renewable power capacity impacting growth

Dry Bulk freight rates continued to plummet

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Slow growth in steel consumption impacting demand for seaborne iron ore imports

Source: Industry Reports

Substitution of other import

sources by Australia leading to

short-haul trade

India

China crude steel production (mt) China iron ore imports (mt)

Page 18: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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12

14

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22

April

May

June July

Augu

st

Sept

embe

r

Oct

ober

mt2015-16 2014-15

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Focus on pollution control, rising hydropower generation – Severe blow to coal trade

Source: Industry Reports

China coal imports decline sharply. Growth in Indian coal imports coming off too

China coal imports India coal imports

Page 19: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

World Fleet addition

Fleet

CY2015 CY2016 CY2017+Nov 15

(in mn dwt)

Crude tankers 333 1% 8% 10%

Product tankers 140 3% 8% 7%

Dry bulk carriers 776 4% 9% 2%

0100200300400500600700

800

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Dry Bulk Crude Product

World Fleet Growth

19Source: Clarkson

mn dwt

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2020

Accelerated scrapping in Dry Bulk

Source: Clarkson

Scrapping as % of world fleet (year wise)Scrapping as % of world fleet (year wise)

Fleet as on ScrappingVessel Category CY2012 CY2013

Nov 2015 Jan-Oct

(in mn dwt) (in mn dwt)

333 0.7 Crude 3% 2%140 0.3 Product 2% 2%776 24 Bulk 5% 3%

Page 21: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Greatship (India) Limited(a 100% subsidiary)

21

Business Review

January 2016

Page 22: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Current Owned Fleet

4 Jack Up Rigs (350ft)

5 Platform Supply Vessels (PSV)

8 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply Vessels (AHTSV)

2 Multipurpose Platform Supply and Support Vessels (MPSSV)

6 Platform / ROV Support Vessels (ROVSV)

Offshore business- Fleet ProfileThe Greatship Group

CategoryExtent of coverage of fleet's operating days

(per cent)

PSV 81

ROVSV 100

AHTSV 96

MPSSV 13

Jackup Rigs 96

High Fleet Utilization

Page 23: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Greatship’s Modern & Technologically Advanced Fleet & High Utilization

- Higher utilization rates

- Minimum down time

- Higher utilization rates

- Minimum down timeRevenue

EfficienciesRevenue

Efficiencies

- Lower Operating costs

- Reduced maintenance capex& opex

- Lower Operating costs

- Reduced maintenance capex& opex

Cost Efficiencies

Cost Efficiencies

Young FleetYoung Fleet

Young fleet with an average age of approx. 4 years by FY 2014-15

Demand shifting to modern vessels, especially as safety becomes a major concern for oil companies

Technologically AdvancedTechnologically Advanced

Specialized/technologically advanced vessels equipped with DP I/DP II (Dynamic Positioning) and FiFi I (Fire Fighting) technologies

Equipped to operate in challenging environments

Efficient and versatile vessels

Page 24: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Oversupply of crude oil led to

significant decline in E&P spending

Stacking of rigs & renegotiations of

rates on the rise, utilisations levels

decline

Deep & Ultra-deep water projects

severely impacted

Sharp decline in E&P spending led by lower oil prices

24Source: Market Reports

E&P spending set to decline

Impact on shallow water offshore projects will be less severe due to lower break-even

Page 25: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

2525Source: Rigzone, Marinebase, Industry Reports

Global Fleet Supply – Offshore

High orderbook amid industry slowdown continues to be a concern

(Nos) Jackup Rigs AHTSVs PSV

Current Fleet 522 2,003 1,535

Orderbook 132 258 274

% of O/B to current fleet 25% 13% 18%

Fleet & Orderbook

Page 26: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Q2 FY 2015-16

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Page 27: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

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Q2 FY 2015-16 Financial Highlights

Standalone ConsolidatedKey Figures

Q2FY'16 Q2FY'15 H1FY'16 (Amount in Rs. crs) Q2FY'16 Q2FY'15 H1FY'16Income Statement

647 549 1,187 Revenue (including other income) 1,090 959 2,115 370 243 658 EBITDA (including other income) 645 460 1,230 249 108 411 Net Profit 383 207 706

Balance Sheet9,476 9,336 9,476 Total Assets 15,896 14,670 15,896 5,271 4,945 5,271 Equity 8,211 7,241 8,211 2,933 3,201 2,933 Total Debt (Gross) 6,199 6,037 6,199

31 599 31 Long Term Debt (Net of Cash) 2,391 2,690 2,391

Cash Flow171 27 390 From operating activities 461 320 895 202 263 (415) From investing activities (20) 206 (573)

(334) (295) (413) From financing activities (559) (485) (859)39 (5) (438) Net cash inflow/(outflow) (117) 40 (537)

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Q2 FY 2015-16 Financial Highlights

Standalone ConsolidatedKey Figures

Q2FY'16 Q2FY'15 H1FY'16 (Amount in Rs. crs) Q2FY'16 Q2FY'15 H1FY'16Key financial figures

57.20% 44.30% 55.50% EBITDA Margin (%) 59.20% 47.90% 58.20%

19.20% 8.80% 16.10% Return on Equity (ROE) (%) 19.10% 11.60% 18.10%

14.40% 7.70% 12.40% Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (%) 12.80% 8.60% 12.00%

0.56 0.65 0.56 Gross Debt/Equity Ratio (x) 0.75 0.83 0.75

0.01 0.12 0.01 Net Debt/Equity Ratio (x) 0.29 0.37 0.29

64.69 60.46 63.92 Exchange rate USD/INR, average (Rs) 64.69 60.46 63.92

65.59 61.75 65.59 Exchange rate USD/INR, end of period (Rs) 65.59 61.75 65.59

Share related figures

16.53 7.17 27.28 Earnings per share, EPS (Rs) 25.38 13.71 46.85

16.5 7.16 27.23 Diluted earnings per share (Rs) 25.33 13.68 46.76

21.86 12.63 37.69 Cash Profit per share (Rs) 36.44 23.86 68.61

- - - Dividend per share (Rs) - - -

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Q2 FY 2015-16 Performance Highlights

Breakup of revenue days

Average TCY Details

Mix of Spot & Time

Revenue Days Q2’FY16 Q2’FY15

Owned Tonnage 2,769 2,603Inchartered Tonnage 65 0Total Revenue Days 2,834 2,603

Total Owned Tonnage (mn.dwt)* 2.36 2.45

Average (TCY $ per day) Q2’FY16 Q2’FY15 % Chg

Crude Carriers 31,012 20,263 53%

Product Carriers (Incl. Gas) 30,128 20,537 47%

Dry Bulk 7,874 9,337 (16)%

* As on 30th September

Days (in %) Q2’FY16 Q2’FY15Dry BulkSpot % 89% 88%Time % 11% 12%

TankersSpot % 76% 61%Time % 24% 39%

TotalSpot % 80% 68%Time % 20% 32%

* Excludes inchartered vessel

Page 30: The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd....Oil demand (mbpd) Supply (mbpd) Growth in Oil demand y-o-y (per cent) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Book Value & Net Asset Value (NAV) comparison

30

Consol. Book Value

(Rs. Per share)

Consol. NAV(Rs. Per share)

September 2015 544 565

June 2015 518 536

March 2015 493 518

December 2014 496 557

Last 4 quarters

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