The Great DisruptionThree Digital Revolutions and Those Yet to Come

Lee Rainie - @lrainie

To National Religious BroadcastersNashville – February 24, 2014

Director, PRC Internet Project

http://www.pewresearch.org/

Big points

• We live in a world of “networked individuals” practicing “networked individualism”

• Three technology revolutions have pushed along pre-existing trends towards NI

• People’s experience of media is orchestrated by their social networks and expanded by social media

• The next technology revolutions are clearly evident now … so be prepared

1) We live in a world of “networked individuals” practicing “networked

individualism”

Networked IndividualismThe move to looser, far-flung networks

Personal networks are:More important – trust, influence awarenessDifferently composed – segmented, layered

Perform new functions – sentries, evaluators, audience

But it is not just technological story

Other drivers are changes in … Identity shifts – starting with

religion & politicsFamily life changes

Business structures & labor shiftsTransportation & living patterns

… then comes technology

2) Three technology revolutions have pushed along pre-existing

trends towards networked individualism

First: Internet and broadbandInternet adoption 1995-2014

First: Internet and broadbandBroadband adoption 2000-2013

June 2000

April 2001

March 2002

March 2003

April 2004

March 2005

March 2006

March 2007

April 2008

April 2009

May 2010

Aug 2011

April 2012

May 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3%

70%

Dial-up Broadband

Second: Wireless connectivityMobile – 90% … smartphone 58% … tablets 42%

326.4Total U.S. population:319 million

2013

Third: Social media61% of all adults

% of internet users

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

9%

89%

7%

78%

6%

60%

1%

43%

18-29 30-49 50-64 65+

3) People’s experience of media is orchestrated by their social networks

and expanded by social media

Impacts

• Information flows change – my network, my playlist • Shifting time and attention• Changed relationships to larger institutions (including

media organizations) – Every organization a media company and a node– Every individual a brand

• Amateurs rise to sit alongside and sometimes challenge experts

• Conversations and disputes are much more drawn out

4) The next technology revolutions are clearly evident now … so be

prepared

4th revolution +++

• Internet fades into the environment as the “internet of things” expands and “big data” mushrooms

• Interfaces change – gesture, voice• Personal connectivity grows • Search expands to all media• Surveillance takes new forms• Personal empowerment develops (3D printing)

– Maker culture

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