2

Irrational Exuberance

3

What would you have predicted would happen

next?

4

5

6

7 Source: Congressional Budget Office: The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 26 Slides, Slide 19

8

1,507

3,734 4,592

13,359

21,605

17,792

27,288

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

196

5

196

8

197

1

197

4

197

7

198

0

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

201

0

201

3

201

6

201

9

202

2

202

5

$ B

illi

on

United States Debt History and Forecast

Debt Held by Public

Gross Federal Debt

Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025, Table 1-1 analysis (January 2015)

Interest

9

8.7 9.1

7.4

9.1

11.2

14.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2005 2015 2025

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

GD

P

Year

Changing Nature of

Everything Else

Social Security, MajorHealth, & Interest

Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025, Figure 1-2 analysis (January 2015)

Mortality Productivity

Health Care Cost

Major Budget Variables

$4,992

$3,272

$5,179

$6,734

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

The Medicare Miracle Per Beneficiary Medicare Hospital Insurance Cost

2014 Report

2009 Report

2009 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.B1, Page 188 2014 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.D1, Page 221

11

12

9

16

19 19 18 18 18 18

17 17 17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

Pe

op

le Subsidized Exchange Enrollees

What does this mean for employer-sponsored

health coverage?

Source: Congressional Budget Office Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act - , Table B-2 analysis

13

Exchange subsidies are

projected to parallel growth

in the GDP

Projected Medicare savings

fund the Medicaid expansion

and Exchange creation

14

What Can You Buy for $23,215?

15

What Can You Buy for $23,215?

16

What Can You Buy for $23,215?

17

U.S. Median Household Income Is $53,046

18

Avg Health Cost Family of Four

$23,215 44%

Household Income After Health Cost

$29,831 56%

19 Source: Whitehouse.gov

20

Going up faster than

usual 52%

Don't know 10%

Going up about the

same 35%

Going up slower than

usual 3%

Public Perception About How Fast Healthcare Costs Are Rising

kff.org

21 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2499 Observations