The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07...

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Presented By: Mitch Stapley, CFA Chief Investment Officer For Institutional Investors Only This presentation has been provided to you for use in a private and confidential meeting to discuss potential or existing investment advisory relationship. This presentation is not an advertisement and is not intended for public use or distribution beyond our private meeting. 2016 Outlook The Goldilock’s Nightmare

Transcript of The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07...

Page 1: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

Presented By:

Mitch Stapley, CFAChief Investment Officer

For Institutional Investors Only

This presentation has been provided to you for use in a private and confidential meeting to discuss potential or existing investment advisory relationship. This presentation is not

an advertisement and is not intended for public use or distribution beyond our private meeting.

2016 OutlookThe Goldilock’s Nightmare

Page 2: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

525

234

475

555

329

50

150

250

350

450

550

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Assets on Central Bank Balance Sheets

(Indexed to 100 in Jan-'07, Local Currency)

BOJ

ECB

SNBFed

BOE

Don’t Fight the BOJ or the ECB� Maybe the Fed

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UK Japan US Eurozone

Amount £375bn ¥1.4trn $3.6trn €836bn

% of GDP 21% 26% 20% 9%

% of Bond Market 27% 16% 26% 14%

% of Annual Net Issuance

107% 347% 139% 262%

World QE in Numbers*

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Source: Morgan Stanley*Data from 2014

Page 4: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

Increase in the Monetary Base

Leads to a weaker USD

And a stronger S&P 500

US – We Wrote this Playbook

Source: Bloomberg3

Page 5: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

Increase in the Monetary Base

Leads to a weaker euro

And a stronger equity market (STOXX Euro 600)

Eurozone - Same story, different time zone

Source: Bloomberg4

Page 6: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

Increase in the Monetary Base

Leads to a weaker yen

And a stronger Nikkei

Japan - Same story, different time zone

Source: Bloomberg5

Page 7: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

2.9%*

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Source: Bloomberg, L.P., IMF, Word Bank*50 year average

This is All I Get for $3.6 Trillion?

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The Failure of Quantitative Easing

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60% of QE ended back on deposit with the Fed

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

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Regulatory Restrictions in the Financial Sector

Page 10: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

The Business Cycle is Growing in Length

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Avg length of post-WW2 expansions (ex-current)

Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch

Page 11: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

How Solid is the U.S. Economy?

10 Source: Deutsche Bank

Page 12: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

Service Sector 80% of Economy, Mfg 20%...

Source: Bloomberg11

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Consumer Balance Sheet Repair Finished?

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Debt Outstanding

DPI

Debt Outstanding/DPI

(Debt Outstanding/DPI) Long Term Avg = .995

Page 14: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

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Housing Affordability

30yr Mortgage Rate

Rent vs. Buy

Household Formations

Housing a 2016 Bright Spot?

Source: Bloomberg

Long-term avg.

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Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Domestic Auto Sales

Long Term Average = 14.62m

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Average Hourly Earnings – Key to Rebound

+2.0% Post Recession

+3.5% Pre Recession

Source: Bloomberg15

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Another Headwind to Growth – Higher Savings Rate Post 2008

+4.0% Pre-Recession

+5.7% Post-Recession

Source: Bloomberg

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Long Term Average

Productivity Collapses

Source: Bloomberg

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Dollar Strength in Context – 2016 Headwind

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Dr. Yellen’s Nightmare

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Oil - Don’t Expect a Quick Rebound

$70 Target – Long Term

Source: Bloomberg

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Rig Count Plunges, Oil Productions Doesn’t

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Falling Oil Prices Do Not Cause Recessions..

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How Narrow can the Market Get?

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HY Spread Widening – It’s an Energy Story

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Where Do You Go For Yield?

Source: Bloomberg (as of 10/31/15)

2525

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FOMC Dot Plot

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How High Could Rates Really Go?

Source: Stratagas

Page 29: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

Target UnemploymentRate of 5.5%

Target Inflation Rate* of 2%

Knocking on NAIRU’s Door

Source: Bloomberg * Core PCE28

Fed’s Estimate of NAIRU

Page 30: The Goldilocks Nightmare - CFA Institute · 525 234 475 555 329 50 150 250 350 450 550 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Assets on Central Bank Balance

What’s Cheap? Stocks, Bonds or Cash�.

Source: Strategas29

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General Disclosures

ClearArc Capital, Inc., formerly known as Fifth Third Asset Management, Inc., is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. The information presented in the material is general in nature and is not designed to address your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, you should assess, or seek advice from a professional regarding whether any particular transaction is relevant or appropriate to your individual circumstances. Although taken from reliable sources, ClearArc Capital cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information received from third parties.

The opinions expressed herein are those of ClearArc Capital and may not actually come to pass. This information is current as of the date of this presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions. Index performance used throughout this presentation is intended to illustrate historical market trends and performance. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur investment management fees. An investor is unable to invest in an index. The performance shown may not reflect a ClearArc Capital portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The mention of specific securities and sectors illustrates the application of our investment approach only and is not to be considered a recommendation by ClearArc Capital. The specific securities identified and described above do not represent all of the securities purchased and sold for the portfolio, and it should not be assumed that investment in these securities were or will be profitable. There is no assurance that the securities purchased remain in the portfolio or that securities sold have not been repurchased. Charts, diagrams and graphs, by themselves, cannot be used to make investment decisions.

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