The Goal: To increase awareness about the organisation, its environment and the future.
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Transcript of The Goal: To increase awareness about the organisation, its environment and the future.
Industry Analysis XMBA [email protected] Analysis XMBA [email protected]
The organisation The business ecosystem
The future
Increasing
awareness
Scenarios(Imagining the future)
Strategic options
(Exploring our future possibilities)
Co-evolution(Discovering our place & relationships)
The Goal:The Goal:To increase awareness To increase awareness about the organisation, about the organisation, its environment and its environment and the future.the future.
The Goal:The Goal:To increase awareness To increase awareness about the organisation, about the organisation, its environment and its environment and the future.the future.
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Tools for Difference FutureTools for Difference Future
A Clear- A Clear- enough futureenough future
A Single A Single forecast forecast precise precise enough to enough to determine determine strategystrategy
Traditional Traditional strategy strategy toolkittoolkit
A range of FutureA range of Future
Range of Range of possible possible outcomes, but no outcomes, but no natural scenarionatural scenario
Technology Technology forecastingforecasting
Scenario Scenario PlanningPlanning
Alternative Alternative FutureFuture
Few discreet Few discreet outcome that outcome that define futuredefine future
Decision Decision AnalysisAnalysis
Game theoryGame theory
True True AmbiguityAmbiguity
No basis to No basis to forecast the forecast the futurefuture
Analogies and Analogies and Pattern Pattern recognitionrecognition
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The environmentThe environmentThe environmentThe environment
International lawInternational lawInternational lawInternational law
GovernmentsGovernmentsGovernmentsGovernments
Standards bodiesStandards bodiesStandards bodiesStandards bodies
StakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholders
Supplier’s Supplier’s supplierssuppliersSupplier’s Supplier’s supplierssuppliers
Customer’s Customer’s customerscustomers
Customer’s Customer’s customerscustomers
New entrantsNew entrantsNew entrantsNew entrants
CustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersSuppliersSuppliersSuppliersSuppliers
CompetitorsCompetitorsCompetitorsCompetitors
SubstitutesSubstitutesSubstitutesSubstitutes
OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation
A Business EcosystemA Business Ecosystem
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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A way of viewing the worldA way of viewing the world
A scenario is a sequence of eventsA scenario is a sequence of events
Businesses and computer systems Businesses and computer systems can be viewed as sequences of can be viewed as sequences of events / activitiesevents / activities
Sequences interactSequences interact
Life is complicated, but you need a Life is complicated, but you need a way of finding your way throughway of finding your way through
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9/119/11
Thaksin CarbinetThaksin Carbinet
Asia FinancialCrisisAsia FinancialCrisis
SARSSARS
??
??
??
Asean +3Asean +3
First Thai female prime First Thai female prime ministerminister
Electric carsElectric cars
Moon BaseMoon Base
??
??
??
Who would have imagined 5 years ago
that:
10 years from now it is possible that:
E
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“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty.”
President of Michigan Savings Banks, 1903 (advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Company)
“Automobiles will start to decline as soon as the last show is fired in World War 22. Instead of a car in every garage, there will be a helicopter.”
Aviation publicist, Harry Bruno, 1943
“I think there is a world market for above five computers”IBM Chairman, Thomas Watson, 1943
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home”
Digital Equipment President, Ken Olsen, 1977
Prediction is difficult….even for experts
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The right question…..The right question…..
“The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed in shifting the question from whether something will happen to what would we do if it did happen”
Arie de GeusFormer Head of Group Planning, Shell International
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What is a scenario?What is a scenario?
An interpretation of the presentand
an archetypal image of the futureand
an internally consistent story about the pathfrom the present to the future
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Scenarios can be used …..Scenarios can be used …..
To aid in the recognition of ‘weak signals’ of To aid in the recognition of ‘weak signals’ of changechange
To avoid being caught off guard - “live the To avoid being caught off guard - “live the future in advance”future in advance”
As a language for discussion - and to As a language for discussion - and to challenge ‘mental maps’challenge ‘mental maps’
To understand the world better - and make To understand the world better - and make better decisionsbetter decisions
To test strategies for robustness - with “what To test strategies for robustness - with “what if” questionsif” questions
E
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Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis
Breaks complex systems into Breaks complex systems into simple componentssimple components
Provides structure to the analysisProvides structure to the analysis
Is used as the basis of further Is used as the basis of further analysis and design in the analysis and design in the development of activity diagrams development of activity diagrams and sequence diagramsand sequence diagrams
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Companies use scenarios Companies use scenarios to…..to…..
Sensitise managers to the outside worldSensitise managers to the outside world
Provide valuable insightsProvide valuable insights
Deal with uncertaintyDeal with uncertainty
Challenge mental mapsChallenge mental maps
Provide internal ‘language’Provide internal ‘language’
Develop better strategies
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Typical Approaches to Typical Approaches to Scenario DevelopmentScenario Development
Discussion and debate - with or without source data
System Change - evaluation of every parameter under different conditions (e.g. treasury model)
Driving Force - identification and assessment of the fundamental influencing factors
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Developing Scenarios Using Driving Developing Scenarios Using Driving ForcesForces
GatherData
Identify Driving Forces
Build Scenarios
Political
EconomicSocial &
Demographic
Technological & Scientific
EnvironmentalCommercial & Business
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Define the nature of the scenario Define the nature of the scenario ProductProduct
Identify the key Identify the key ParticipantsParticipants
Follow a clearly defined Follow a clearly defined ProcessProcess
Scenario development in practice The three Ps
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IndifferenceConcentration
ofRegulation
Poor HousingStock
Presentation V
Substance
PoliticalImperative
PublicPerceptions
Communications
StakeholderPressure
Politics / People
Spin offeconomic
development
Planning Issuesmay affect
rollout of newE-opportunities
Rate of Response
CustomerAspirationsIncreasing
Economics
Do we knowbaseline?
SME Inertia
2010 +?
Inertia / Awareness
Talkis it a
Value or Waste
Buy-inEmployeesCustomers
PressureGroups
Customer demands
lower cost
“Win / Win”
“Lose / Win”
DemandGrowth
£ / t C
Misguided / Informed ?
Long Term Planning
Customerswill notaccept
retrogradesteps
Customersare
prepared topay
ExpectationBusiness
VPublic
DemographicChanges
Short-termism
Environmenttruly becomes
“political” issue
Government must
Coerce?
Open Discussion
transparency
Customer Choice
Oil storagewater / land
pollution“Risk”
Legislation
SustainableDevelopmentLegislation?
Disbenefitsof EU
Legislation
IntegratedPolicy
EULegislation
level playingfield or Env.
Impact
Energy policy not devolved
Point of use
Competition / Public Service
(Water)
Environment Becomes
Competative issue
Partnerships
Media
Brainstorming and “Clustering” Brainstorming and “Clustering” SessionSession
Key issues and potential policy areas IIKey issues and potential policy areas II
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Priority issues in environment over the next 25 years
low
Uncertainty
high
low Relative Importance highE
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Priority issues in environment over the next 25 years
low
Uncertainty
high
low Relative Importance high
Structures
Behaviour
Waste E -Activity
EnvironmentalImpact
Technology
Surprises
Public Awareness
Partner-ships
Legislation
Long termPlanning
Media
PressureGroups
Politics/People
Economics
Resources
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Strategic optionsStrategic options“Our future possibilities”“Our future possibilities”
Key strategic issuesKey strategic issues What are the real areas which affect our business?What are the real areas which affect our business? (E.g. service, channel, market)(E.g. service, channel, market)
Formulate key decision areasFormulate key decision areas Where do decisions need to be made?Where do decisions need to be made?
Create clusters of optionsCreate clusters of options Discover coherent strategiesDiscover coherent strategies Check against distinctive competenciesCheck against distinctive competencies
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Strategic Strategic option option
generatiogeneration:n:
one one approachapproach
Competence
Development
Existing
New
MA
RK
ETS
SERVICES
PROTECT/BUILD•Withdrawal•Consolidation•Market penetration
SERVICE DEVELOPMENT•Existing competencies•New competencies
MARKET DEVELOPMENT•New segments•New territories•New uses
DIVERSIFICATION•Existing competencies•New competencies
Existing New
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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ScenariosScenarios“Imagining the future”“Imagining the future”
Identify key driving forcesIdentify key driving forces
Choose most uncertain/most Choose most uncertain/most significantsignificant
Develop alternativesDevelop alternatives
‘‘Flesh out’ with narrativeFlesh out’ with narrative
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
Identify key driving Identify key driving forcesforces
Driver 1
Driver 3
Driver 5
Driver 4
Driver 2
Low
Low
High
High
Uncertainty
Importance
Note Note which key which key external external
drivers are drivers are both both
important important & &
uncertainuncertain
Note Note which key which key external external
drivers are drivers are both both
important important & &
uncertainuncertain
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Driver 2Driver 2
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
Formulate ‘yes-no’ questionsFormulate ‘yes-no’ questions
Yes
Yes No
No
Driver 5Driver 5
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 4
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CONTROL
ABSENCE OF CONTROL
CERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
1. Rules of the Game2a. Key Uncertainties
3 . Options 4. Decisions
2b. Scenarios
The IS Matrix
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CONTROL
ABSENCE OF CONTROL
CERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
1. Rules of the Game2a. Key Uncertainties
3 . Options 4. Decisions
2b. Scenarios
Scenarios for the US
Demographics Globalisation Global Climate Change Potential for epidemics New technological wave We live in one world Nature of warfare has changed
Nuclear terrorism
Disintegration of world order
‘Friendly Planet’
‘Gilded Cage’
Constructive engagement
Isolation
‘Homeland Security’
Steel tariffs
Agricultural subsidies
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Develop future time line for each Develop future time line for each scenarioscenario
20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007
Map out critical events leading to the Map out critical events leading to the unfolding of this scenario enabling you to:unfolding of this scenario enabling you to: Scan for triggers which will alert you to the Scan for triggers which will alert you to the
scenarioscenario Rehearse your strategic responses to the Rehearse your strategic responses to the
events of the scenarioevents of the scenario
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Cross-impact Cross-impact matrixmatrix
Test each Test each option option against each against each scenario.scenario.
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4
Actions
Learning
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
MMPP II
MMPP II
MMPP II
SWOT SWOT analysis is analysis is one useful one useful tool;tool;
de Bono’s de Bono’s Plus/Minus/ Plus/Minus/ InterestingInterestingis also is also good.good.Add Add learning learning points and points and actions actions required.required.
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Are scenarios the answer?Are scenarios the answer?Do scenarios help?Do scenarios help?
Shell used them effectivelyShell used them effectivelyIBM & General Motors did notIBM & General Motors did not
Why not?Why not?DiversityDiversity
Is there enough diversity in planning Is there enough diversity in planning process?process?
CultureCultureIs the culture open to new thinking & doing?Is the culture open to new thinking & doing?
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Strategic intentStrategic intent
Strategic intent must inform all of Strategic intent must inform all of organisational lifeorganisational life
Strategic intent must take account Strategic intent must take account of the realities of the organisation of the realities of the organisation and its environmentand its environment
Strategic intent is more important Strategic intent is more important than ‘strategy’than ‘strategy’
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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JJ . . CC . . Glenn and TGlenn and T . . JJ . . Gordon, 'The Millennium ProjectGordon, 'The Millennium Project : : Issues and Issues and Opportunities for the Future', Opportunities for the Future', Technological forecasting and social change: Technological forecasting and social change:
An International Journal An International Journal, North, North--Holland, New York, volHolland, New York, vol . . 61, no61, no . . 2, June 2, June
1999, pp1999, pp . . 97-20897-208..
sustainable development for land, water and oceans through energy efficiency actions sustainable development for land, water and oceans through energy efficiency actions
- long term perspective planning at personal, corporate and political levels- long term perspective planning at personal, corporate and political levels
population growth rate checked through female rights and education programs population growth rate checked through female rights and education programs
peace paradigm for coexistence extending economic cooperation across regions peace paradigm for coexistence extending economic cooperation across regions
science for appropriatescience for appropriate--technology in genetics, biotechnology & information systems technology in genetics, biotechnology & information systems
global ethics and thinking assisted by literacy, education and medical support global ethics and thinking assisted by literacy, education and medical support
democratic institutions, reconciliation, freedom, equity and selfdemocratic institutions, reconciliation, freedom, equity and self--determination determination
- non violent conflict resolution with United Nations reform and global cooperation- non violent conflict resolution with United Nations reform and global cooperation
ecologically based agriculture predicated on alternative progress indicators, and ecologically based agriculture predicated on alternative progress indicators, and
global philosophies, value systems and thought towards environmental security. global philosophies, value systems and thought towards environmental security.