The Global Situation and Prospects
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Global Situation And Prospects for the Future Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project
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Presented by Jerome Glenn How do we handle the world’s major challenges? This session will provide a framework to better understand global change and what is strategic for the future of civilization. Worldwide synergies and cross-impacts will be cited among sustainable development, climate change, water, demographics, democratization, ICT, development gaps, health and disease, global foresight and decision making, conflict and security, gender relations, organized crime, energy, S&T, global ethics, and education.
Transcript of The Global Situation and Prospects
Global SituationAnd
Prospects for the Future
Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project
ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition
The World is in a Race
Between implementing
and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems.
Global Collective Intelligence can help…
Win the Race
How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
1
How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
2
How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
3
How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
4
How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
5
How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
6
How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
7
How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
8
How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?
9
How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
10
How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?
11
How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
12
How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
13
How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
14
How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
15
How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?
How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change?How can the global convergence of
information and communications technologies work for everyone?
How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges?
How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?
How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges
2013 State of the Future Index
World World Report Report CardCard
Where are
We Winning?
Where are We Losing?
World World Report CardReport Card
What is Unclear or not Changing?
World World Report CardReport Card
High Impact/Synergetic Actions affecting4 or more Global Challenges
1.Establish a U.S.-China 10-year environmental security goal to reduce climate change and improve trust. (1,2,3,5,10,13,14)
2.Grow meat without growing animals, to reduce water demand and GHG emissions. (1,2,3,13,15)
3.Develop seawater agriculture for biofuels, carbon sink, and food without rain. (1,2,3,13,)
4.Build global collective intelligence systems for input to long-range strategic plans. (1-15)
5.Create tele-nations connecting brains overseas to the development process back home. (4,6,7,8,9,11,14)
6.Establish trans-institutions for more effective implementation of strategies. (1-15)
7.Detail and implement a global counter-organized crime strategy. (4,7,11,12,15)
8.Use the State of the Future Index as an alternative to GDP as a measure of progress for the world and nations. (1-15)
Executive Summary
Chapter 1 – 15 Global Challenges
Chapter 2 – Hidden Hunger
Chapter 3 – Coast Zones
Chapter 4 – Lone Wolf and SIMAD
Chapter 5 – Global Futures Intelligence System
247 Pages over 50 charts and graphs
New this year are
infographicsfor all 15
Global Challenges
on-line version
4. Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs
Potential Global Assessment by The Millennium Project
1. Human Brains: Ideally 100 Reviewers per Global Challenge plus subscribers and 50+ Nodes around the world
2. Data, Information, Intelligence, maybe wisdom: 10,000+ pages of futures research by The Millennium Project
3. Software: Real-time Delphi (exert and crowd sourcing), State of the Future Index, Computer Models, Text and Data Mining
Global Futures Intelligence System
Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration and synergies among• data/info/knowledge• software/hardware• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from feedback
• to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone.
An Application of Collective Intelligence:
Go to the Wi-Fi, if not, then continue slides
Menu for each Global Challenge & Groups
1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable)4. Scanning (annotated, rated information)5. On-going Real-Time Delphi questionnaires to collect expert
judgments6. Public comments7. Discussion groups8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual
models9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos10.Updates – all edits11.Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions
… May become a TransInstitution
The Millennium Project
50+ Millennium Project Nodes...
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
For further information:
202-686-5179
StateoftheFuture.org
themp.orgGlobal Futures Intelligence System
For further information
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
www.StateoftheFuture.orgwww.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence
System)
