May 2020 Report

THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET AND THE COVID-19 CRISIS:

IMPACT AND FORECAST

SUMMARY

I. The lockdown of the global economy

▶ COVID-19: FROM A LOCAL HEALTH ISSUE TO A GLOBAL PANDEMIC▶ GLOBAL ECONOMY: FROM GROWTH TO RECESSION (JAN - MAR 2020)

II.. An oil demand and supply shock: Analysis

▶ THE OIL INDUSTRY AND CRUDE OIL MARKET▶ FOCUS ON OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS ▶ OIL INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL: GLOBAL ANALYSIS

III. Key Expectations in the near future for the energy industry

▶ COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW FOR BRENT AND WTI FUTURE▶ THE FUTURE BALANCE OF OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER COMMODITIES: NATURAL GAS▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER COMMODITIES: COAL▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER COMMODITIES: ELECTRICITY

IV. Additional Analysis

About the contributors

Sources

Summary

2

3

45

8

91114

16

1718192021

22

25

26

I. The lockdown of theglobal economy

3

On December 31, 2019,Chinese authorities alerted theWorld Health Organization ofpneumonia of unknown causecases in Wuhan, located in theHubei province.As of January 23, over 800 casesof Covid-19 were confirmedglobally across 20 regions inChina and 9 countries.The Chinese New Year was to becelebrated on January 24 for allChinese, with a maximal risk ofhigh travel volumes and massgatherings. Wuhan city wasplaced in quarantine that day aswell as adjacent cities in theregion.Following the outbreak of thevirus in all the Chinese provinces,many countries decided to closetheir borders with China. Relatedto this was the cancellation ofthe air traffic to/from China inother countries. The Chinesegovernment took lockdownmeasures for the whole countryto fight the virus.

▶ COVID-19: FROM A LOCAL HEALTH ISSUE TO A GLOBAL PANDEMIC

As the virus continued tospread in mainland China butalso globally, the World HealthOrganization (WHO) announcedthat, the 11 March 2020, Covid-19 outbreak was a pandemic.Governments all around theworld enacted quarantinemeasures and through Marchand April 2020, more than 50% ofthe world population was askedto stay home.Never had such a containmentof this scale been seen duringpeacetime, with movementlimitations, purchase reductions,remote working incentives formost of the offices employees.These measures, implemented tofight the rapid spread of the virushave strong economicimplications. Forecasts for globalgrowth were around 3% at thestart of March for 2020, thisestimate has now been cut to acontraction of 2.7% (Bank ofAmerica Merill Lynch).

4

▶ GLOBAL ECONOMY: FROM GROWTH TO RECESSION (JAN - MAR 2020)

US stocks Q1 average■ S&P 500: -21,89%■ Nasdaq Composite: -17,00%■ NYSE: -27,70%■ Dow Jones Industrial Average: -25,22%

Brazilian stocks Q1 average■ Brazil Index: -38,57% ■ Brazil Index 50: -39,21%■ Ibovespa – Bovespa Index: -38,62%

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA

The IMF predicts agloomy forecastedgrowth for NorthAmerica in 2020 witha strong recovery in2021.

2,30%

-6,10%

4,50%

1,60%

-6,20%

4,20%

-8,00%-6,00%-4,00%-2,00%0,00%2,00%4,00%6,00%

2019 2020 2021

FORECASTED GROWTH FOR NORTH AMERICA

United States Canada

1,10%

-5,30%

2,90%

-0,10%

-6,60%

3,00%

0,10%

-5,20%

3,40%

-8,00%

-6,00%

-4,00%

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

2019 2020 2021

FORECASTED GROWTH FOR SOUTH AMERICA & THE CARRIBEAN

Brazil Mexico Latin America & the Carribean

1

1

1 Source: IMF – World Energy Outlook, April 2020 Review

The U.S. enjoyed an unprecedent low rate ofunemployment before the coronavirus crisis.The unemployment rate for March 2020 rose to4,4% compared to 3,5% in February. More than 6,6millions additional people had made insuranceclaims by the 28th of March. The unemploymentrate may rise to 32% at the height of the crisis.

According to Bloomberg, around 22 million ofAmerican fulfilled for unemployment from mid-March to mid-April, highlighting the reality of a20% and above jobless rate in the world’s firsteconomy.

The global outlook forSouth America is similarthan for the northern partof the continent butemerging economies areless likely to recoverquickly (see 2021predictions)

Focus on U.S. unemploymentThe U.S. Government imposeda lockdown on all non-essentialbusinesses.

5

-10,00% -8,00% -6,00% -4,00% -2,00% 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00%

Germany

France

Italy

Euro Area

Japan

China

India

Russia

ASEAN-5

Nigeria

South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

FORECASTED GROWTH FOR EUROPEAN, ASIAN AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES

2021 2020 2019

European stocks Q1 average■ FTSE100 (UK): -28,85% ■ CAC40 (France): -30,88%■ Xetra DAX (Germany): -28,03% ■ AEX Amsterdam (Netherlands): -22,67%

Russian stocks Q1 average■ Micex: -17,24% ■ RTS: -37,46%■ RST Oil&Gas Index: -36,69%

Chinese stocks Q1 average■ Shanghai Composite: -10,37% ■ FTSE Xinhua 200: -11,24% ■ Shanghai 180 A Share Index: -11,14%

Japanese stocks Q1 average■ Nikkei 225: -24,67%■ Topix: -23,02%

Australian stocks Q1 average■ S&P/ASX 100: -24,59%■ ASX All Ords: -25,50%■ S&P/ASX Resources: -26,68%

EUROPE ASIA

United States15,10%

Euro Area11,20%

Japan4,00%

United Kingdom2,20%

Canada1,30%

Other advanced Economies

6,50%

SHARE OF WORLD'S GDP IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES (2019)

Total: 40,30%

Emerging and Developing Asia

34,10%

Emerging and Developing Europe

7,10%

Latin America and the Caribbean

7,20%

Middle East and Central Asia 8,10%

Sub-Saharan Africa3,20%

SHARE OF WORLD'S GDP IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES (2019)

Total: 59,70%

Source: IMF – World Energy Outlook, April 2020 Review

1

1 6

Due to the severity of the Covid-19 crisis, hospital systems are overwhelmed,supply chains disrupted, industries blocked, transports stuck, depriving millionspeople of their job and income. The duration and intensity of this global shockare highly uncertain. Governments have had to impose lockdown on theirpopulation and their economy at a cost to save life. These measures needed ananswer with fiscal stimulus and economic package from the States andinternational bodies to support citizens, companies and the global tradingsystem.

One of the most illustrious example from the scale of these measures comes fromthe U.S., where the Government had distributed $1,200 to Americans earning upto $75k per year with an additional $500 per child. Never such an immediatefiscal impulse of this magnitude had been implemented, revealing the severity ofthe crisis for the U.S. economy.

According to economists, it is very likely that 2020 will be the worst recessionsince the Great Depression for the global economy. According to the IMF, thereshould be a promising rebound of growth in 2021 (ex: 4,5% for France in 2021 vs1,9% in 2019) but such projections are considerably uncertain as the Covid-19crisis is not over. In every cases, it seems unlikely that the economic results of 2021will offset the recession of 2020.

Country-specific fiscal measures (as a % of 2019 GDP):Country Immediate fiscal impulse Deferral Other liquidity/guarantee

Belgium

Denmark

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Italy

Netherlands

Spain

UK

USA

TOTAL ($bn) $1562.35bn $1774.38bn $3394.06bn

0.7% ($3.36bn)

2.1% ($8.12bn)

1.2% ($32.7bn)

6.9% ($264.3bn)

1.1% ($2.35bn)

0.4% ($0.64bn)

0.9% ($17.92bn)

1.6% ($14.2bn)

0.7% ($9.86bn)

1.4% ($38bn)

5.5% ($1170.9bn)

1.2% ($5.04bn)

7.2% ($24bn)

9.4% ($255.4bn)

14.6% ($560bn)

2.0% ($4.14bn)

8.3% ($11.95bn)

13.0% ($258.4bn)

3.2% ($29.12bn)

2.0% ($27.33bn)

1.4% ($38bn)

2.6% ($561bn)

0.0%

2.9% ($9.6bn)

12.5% ($338,2bn)

38.6% ($1480.6bn)

0.5% ($1.12bn)

0.0%

7.3% ($145.6bn)

0.4% ($3.81bn)

9.1% ($125.8bn)

15.1% ($412.33bn)

4.1% ($877bn)

7

II. AN OIL DEMANDAND SUPPLY SHOCK:

ANALYSIS

8

Crude oil is a natural flammable liquidwhich is made up of hydrocarbons and othercompounds such as Paraffins, Naphthene,Aromatics and Asphaltic. The oil drilled acrossthe world is composed of different petroleumvariety, with a unique mix of molecules,defining its physical and chemical properties.

Different crude oil specifications and gradesexist:- Specific gravity, determines the ease with

which the oil can be refined. It is measuredin degrees API, the greater the degrees, thelighter the oil, the easier it is to refine.

- Sulphur content, is measured in percentageand determines the quality of the crude.Crude with high sulphur content (>0,5%) areknown as sour, otherwise, they are known assweet.

- Viscosity, defines the runniness andstickiness of the oil. The lower the viscositythe lighter the product is.

èTo have a greater understanding of thephysical characteristics of crude oil, pleaseclick on the following link:

S&P Global Platts periodic table of oil

▶ THE OIL INDUSTRY AND CRUDE OIL MARKET I

Diesel

Other Distillates

Jet Fuel

Other Products

Liquefied Petroleum Gases

Gasoline

Heavy Fuel Oil (Residual)

Products made from a Barrelof Crude Oil (42 Gallons)

At this stage, you can’t use the crude oil fortransportation purposes or petrochemicalapplications, it needs to be refined. The differentspecifications and grades will give a differentvalue to the crude. Refiners are primarily lookingfor light, sweet crudes as they contain highyields of high-value products such as gasoline,diesel or jet fuel. Heavy, sour crudes are moredifficult to refine as they contain a higheramount of impurities such as sulphur. Theseimpurities needs to be removed before refiningthe crude, thus increasing the cost ofprocessing.

Crude oil characteristics are key to understandthe dynamics of oil pricing. It’s the first aspect tolook at to assess the quality of a crude and thenits potential price on the market.

Illustration: Crude oil may vary in colour

9

▶ THE OIL INDUSTRY AND CRUDE OIL MARKET II▻ Oil supply and oil demand: Probably themost important criteria like for any economicsector. Supply and demand should match asclose as possible to find the equilibrium price, ifthe market is oversupplied by oil, prices maycrash, if the demand surpasses supplies, pricesmay skyrocket. As oil is a very sensitivecommodity, fueling the global economy, anin-depth analysis will be further dedicated tothis part. The concept of free market does notreally exist as far as oil is concerned.

▻ Financial Market: Alongside the physicalmarket exists a financial market for oil but alsoother commodities. Future contracts for crudeoil and other energy derivatives are tradedacross various regions and different stockexchanges (New York for WTI, London forBrent). Future markets have a role of pricediscovery and influence oil prices. As onfinancial markets, participants such as bank,hedge fund, asset managers are not reallyinterested by the physical delivery of oil but tryto profit from changes in the price of oil.

▻ Additional criteria influence the oil market,such as:- The weather: if a hurricane were to hit the

U.S. gulf coast, offshore platforms must beshut down and the production is halted.

- Geopolitics: oil producing countries, oftenlocated in the Middle East have sufferedwars and conflicts for decades, threateningthe flow of oil to consuming countries.

- Environmental disaster: the DeepWaterhorizon is a notorious example which led toone of the worst environmental catastrophein the U.S. and almost knocked down BP.More info at: Epa.gov.

- Currencies: as oil benchmarks are mostlypriced in dollars, the exchange value of thedollar relative to other currencies affects theprice of oil outside the U.S. For instance, ifthe EUR/USD exchange rates goes from 1,1to 1,3, a $50 barrels of oil will cost less forEuropean consumers, driving the demandfor this commodity upward in the regionconsequently.

Other criteria must be considered tounderstand what impacts the price ofcrude oil. The following list is a non-exhaustive one but contains the maindrivers:

▻ Global crude oil reserves: Like any naturalresource, oil is not infinite, and the amountcontained in the ground has significanteconomic importance. According to BP,the world has 1.73 trillion barrels of oilreserves and the top 3 reserve holders areVenezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada.Knowing the amount of crude oil that canbe reasonably extracted allows tocalculate the Reserves-to-Production (R/P)ratio by year, or, in other words, the numberof years reserves will last at current annualproduction rates. According to BP, crude oilglobal reserves are sufficient to meet 50years of global production at 2018 levels.

▻ Exploration & Production projects: In theupstream sector, Exploration & Productionof crude oil are key to assess the currentand future rates of production.Exploration relates to the search ofhydrocarbons under the ground thanks togeoscience. The goal is to identify volumes,locations and type of crude oil beforedrilling a well. Oil is contained in typicalshale formations which are analyzed bygeoscientist and engineers.Production of crude oil is only possible aftera well has been drilled in the reservoir.Liquid hydrocarbons extracted are thenseparated from other components such aswater, residues, … Once crude oil iscollected, it is shipped or piped to refineries,to produce petroleum products such asgasoil, diesel, fuel oil, jet fuel, …

10

▶ FOCUS ON OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS I

Like in any market, oil is driven by the rules of supply and demand. As long as supplies are inline with the demand, the oil market is stable. However, turmoil exists, leading to oil-expensive oroil-cheapness era.Several factors are responsible for oil price spikes but most of the time they are related to fearsthat oil supplies tumble. Such fears often concern the Middle East as it is an oil-rich region,supplying most of the advanced economies.On the demand side, an unexpected slowdown in oil consumption will drive prices down assupply will outpace demand. This is usually happens during financial crisis.

DemandOil is the most actively traded and consumed commodity globally. Oil consumption is mainlyfuelled by economic growth. When the economy is flourishing, oil consumption tends to rise,because more people have access to goods which require oil to be produced or to function,such as cars, planes, buying plastic-made goods, … On the other side, when economic crisesarise, a decline in oil consumption immediately follows: as people prefer to save money andbuy less, companies postpone projects, sell less goods & services and overall the demanddecreases.

SupplyIn the past few years, the world has consumed 100 million barrels/day on average. Some barrelsare produced by International Oil Companies (IOC), others by National Oil Companies (NOC).The goal of an IOC is to produce and sell oil by making a profit and redistribute dividends toshareholders whereas a NOC is usually located in oil-dependent countries where the black goldwill heavily weight on the stability of the country as it accounts for a large portion of the GDP,government budget and ability to spend. This is typical from countries located in the Middle Eastor in Russia (Note that in Russia both NOC and IOC exist, such as Rosneft and Lukoil).

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

35,00%

40,00%

Middle East North America Europe andCIS

Africa Asia-Pacific Central andSouth America

Distribution of global oil production (2010-2018)

2010 2014 2016 2017 2018

0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00%

U.S.

China

India

Japan

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Brazil

South Korea

Canada

Germany

Main oil consumers countries (2016 - 2018)

2018 2017 2016 11

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec. 31, 1

970

Dec. 31, 1

972

Dec. 31, 1

974

Dec. 31, 1

976

Dec. 31, 1

978

Dec. 31, 1

980

Dec. 31, 1

982

Dec. 31, 1

984

Dec. 31, 1

986

Dec. 31, 1

988

Dec. 31, 1

990

Dec. 31, 1

992

Dec. 31, 1

994

Dec. 31, 1

996

Dec. 31, 1

998

Dec. 31, 2

000

Dec. 31, 2

002

Dec. 31, 2

004

Dec. 31, 2

006

Dec. 31, 2

008

Dec. 31, 2

010

Dec. 31, 2

012

Dec. 31, 2

014

Dec. 31, 2

016

Dec. 31, 2

018

% C

hang

e of

Oil C

onsu

mp

tion

(Yea

r on

Yea

r)

Barre

ls p

er d

ay

(Milli

on)

YEARS

World's Oil Consumption (1970 - 2018)

▶ FOCUS ON OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS IIOil consumption, as previously said, coincides with economic growth. By looking at

the World’s oil consumption historical data, crises can easily be spotted.Oil is generally more consumed when its price is low and affordable for a wide rangeof industries and consumers. Fears of oil supply disruption have always led to a sharpincrease in the price of oil. This is generally happening when oil producing countries aresuffering from a conflict or when OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)threatens to impose an embargo or to decrease production for various reasons.

1 2 3

2

1

4

By looking at the World’s Oil Consumption chart, one can see that the Worldconsumed an average 40 million barrels per day in 1970 compared to 100 millionbarrels per day in 2018, an increase of 1,25 million barrels per day each year onaverage. On the overall picture, oil consumption had been climbing at a steady rate.But for some occasions, the consumption plateaued or even declined. This occurred 4times since 1970, without taking into account the current Covid-19 crisis.

Events responsible for an oil consumption decline

3

OPEC Embargo in 1974: In the 70’s, oil consumption was growing fast as it was a flourishing period forthe economy. But in 1974, the OPEC decided to impose an embargo on its oil flowing to Westerneconomies due to the Kippur War against Israel. In addition, America’s surplus production at thetime collapsed and left Europe, the U.S. and Asia defenceless against OPEC’s embargo and priceincreases. This event is known as the first oil shock.

Iran Revolution in 1980: The fall of the Shah in Iran unleashed the second oil crisis panic, which led toa greater increase in the price of oil compared to 1974. The Iran-Irak war then followed through the80’s. During that period, Iranian production fell to below 500,000 barrels/day from around 6 millionbarrels/day before the crisis. The price of oil skyrocketed as a consequence, with a threefold priceincrease.

First Gulf War in 1990: The conflict was triggered by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. Thecoalition led by the U.S. quickly sent troops to prevent the annexation of Kuwait by Iraq and protectthe oil fields. This conflict knocked out two of the world’s biggest oil producers, and led to a newsurge in oil prices, resulting in a lower consumption of oil.

Global financial crisis in 2008: This time, oil consumption declined, not because of fears of supplydisruption and oil price spike, but because the global economy was slowing down and consumerdemand declined, leading to oversupply. The price of oil declined from a peak of $147 per barrel to$32 in the crisis aftermath.

4

12

13

Oil production as forecasted without a global pandemic Oil production as forecasted with COVID-19 crisis

⌲ Under normal market conditions, oil suppliesare supposed to match the demand, in line withthe 100 million barrels per day consumed, with aslow but steady growth over time, as it isassumed that the economy will keep growing,requiring more oil to cover the needs.

The main producers are divided between OPECand non-OPEC countries. As OPEC operates as acartel and produces roughly 33% of the daily oilproduction, it is set apart due to its ability toinfluence the oil market. OPEC-memberscountries, often led by Saudi Arabia, used togather in Vienna to discuss strategy and targetprice on oil.

⌲ As oil market demand contracted during theCovid-19 crisis, main oil producers were left offguard with plenty of oil. The steep fall in oilconsumption required an answer from the supplyside, as there was a gap of approximately 30million barrels between demand and supply fromMarch to April 2020. Usually, OPEC used to discusswhether to reduce production or not, sometimesin agreement with Russia, which group is calledOPEC+. However this time things were different asnever a decline of this scale has been seen onthe demand side. Non-OPEC producingcountries had to participate into the globalstrategy to cut oil production.

Oil consumption as forecasted without a global pandemic Oil consumption as forecasted with COVID-19 crisis

⌲ Under normal conditions, the world’s oilconsumption is roughly equal to 100 millionbarrels per day to cover all our needs in 2019. Thisnumber has been generally increasing year onyear at a 1.82% rate since the 70’s.

As there was no sign of potential instability whenthis forecast was published by the EIA (EnergyInformation Administration) in the U.S., theagency predicted a slow but steady increase ofthe global oil consumption in the near future.There was no sign of economic disaster or globalconflict looming ahead that would have erodedthe demand.

This chart is no longer relevant as in a matter ofweeks, the global economy collapsed due tolockdown measures.

⌲ Due to the Covid-19 crisis, the world’s oilconsumption fell drastically to levels ofconsumption seen around 1996. Around a thirdof the demand disappeared within weeks, thussending the price of oil to historical low levels(see chart on p.14).

The reason for such a decline comes from thelockdown measures taken by Governments incountries affected by the virus. As borders wereclosed, citizens asked to stay home andinternational transports shut down, the demandfor oil was reduced drastically. Such a situationmay seem positive for the climate as lessgreenhouse gases will be released over thatperiod of low demand and consumers willbenefit from a significantly lower oil prices at thepump.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

2018

Mar

201

8

May

201

8

Jul 2

018

Sep

2018

Nov

201

8

Jan

2019

Mar

201

9

May

201

9

Jul 2

019

Sep

2019

Nov

201

9

Jan

2020

Mar

202

0

May

202

0

Jul 2

020

Sep

2020

Nov

202

0

Jan

2021

Mar

202

1

May

202

1

Jul 2

021

Sep

2021

Nov

202

1

MIL

LIO

N B

ARR

ELS/

DA

Y

Estimated OECD and non-OECD oil consumption in normal conditions

OECD non-OECD

Forecast

Data: EIA

13

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan2018

Mar2018

May2018

Jul2018

Sep2018

Nov2018

Jan2019

Mar2019

May2019

Jul2019

Sep2019

Nov2019

Jan2020

Mar2020

May2020

Jul2020

Sep2020

Nov2020

Jan2021

Mar2021

May2021

Jul2021

Sep2021

Nov2021

MILL

ION

BA

RREL

S/D

AY

Estimated OPEC and non-OPEC production in normal conditions

non-OPEC Countries OPEC Countries

Forecast

Data: EIA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

2018

Feb

201

8M

ar 2

018

Ap

r 201

8M

ay

2018

Jun

2018

Jul 2

018

Aug

201

8Se

p 2

018

Oct

201

8N

ov

2018

De

c 20

18Ja

n 20

19Fe

b 2

019

Ma

r 201

9A

pr 2

019

Ma

y 20

19Ju

n 20

19Ju

l 201

9A

ug 2

019

Sep

201

9O

ct 2

019

No

v 20

19D

ec

2019

Jan

2020

Feb

202

0M

ar 2

020

Ap

r 202

0M

ay

2020

Jun

2020

Jul 2

020

Aug

202

0Se

p 2

020

Oct

202

0N

ov

2020

De

c 20

20

MIL

LIO

N B

ARR

ELS/

DA

Y

Estimated OECD and non-OECD oil consumption under current conditions

OECD non-OECD

Covid-19 begins to hit global oil consumption

Forecast

Data: EIA ; Forecast from various oil reports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

2018

Feb

201

8M

ar 2

018

Ap

r 201

8M

ay

2018

Jun

2018

Jul 2

018

Aug

201

8Se

p 2

018

Oct

201

8N

ov

2018

De

c 20

18Ja

n 20

19Fe

b 2

019

Ma

r 201

9A

pr 2

019

Ma

y 20

19Ju

n 20

19Ju

l 201

9A

ug 2

019

Sep

201

9O

ct 2

019

No

v 20

19D

ec

2019

Jan

2020

Feb

202

0M

ar 2

020

Ap

r 202

0M

ay

2020

Jun

2020

Jul 2

020

Aug

202

0Se

p 2

020

Oct

202

0N

ov

2020

De

c 20

20

MIL

LIO

N B

ARR

ELS/

DA

Y

Estimated OPEC and non-OPEC production under current conditions

non-OPEC Countries OPEC Countries

OPEC+ talks collapse between Saudi Arabia and Russia

Forecast

Data: EIA ; Forecast from various oil reports

In the past few weeks, the oil market has been as turbulent as a hurricane hurting the US Gulf Coast. Thedramatic collapse of oil demand has pushed oil prices to new territories. The situation sets a gloomy futurefor the weaker oil producers in the upstream sector. This led to a fragile coalition between crude oilproducers’ country.

On March 6, as the demand collapsed, OPEC+ members had to conduct a meeting to decide if theyall agree to cut a portion of their domestic oil production. Meetings like this one are not unusual in theOPEC decision-making system, as oil producers, regrouped as a cartel, often discussed strategies inmeetings whether to reduce oil production or increase it depending on the situation and theirtargeted oil price. But this time it was different as they basically had to agree on the biggest cut in oilproduction ever made. The talks collapsed as Russia, which is not an original member but was invitedto the talks since 2017, did not agree with the OPEC members to reduce the output with a commonmove. This decision led to a decline of the oil price from $45.27 for Brent the day of the meeting to$22.76 on March 30, 3 weeks later only.

Two questions are of primary importance at this stage:

March 6: OPEC+ talkscollapse, sendingglobal oil prices to2017 lows.

April 7: US, Russia andOPEC found commonground on global oilproduction, withannounced cuts ofaround 10m bbl/day.

▶ OIL INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL: GLOBAL ANALYSIS I

$68,44 $68,91$64,20 $64,59

$59,32$54,45 $53,27

$57,75 $56,30$51,90

$45,27$37,22

$30,05 $27,15$22,76

$31,87 $29,60$25,57

$61,68 $63,27$58,08 $58,34

$53,14 $50,11 $49,57 $52,02 $51,43$46,75

$41,28$34,36

$28,70$24,01

$20,09 $23,63 $20,13

-$37,63

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

December 3

0

Janua

ry 6

Janua

ry 13

Janua

ry 21

Janua

ry 27

February

3

February

10

February

18

February

24

March 2

March 6

March 10

March 16

March 24

March 30

April 7

April 14

April 20

$/Ba

rrel

Weekly crude oil prices for Brent and WTI

Brent WTI Data: Bloomberg ; OPEC

April 20: WTI, the US benchmark,fell into negative territories for the1st time in its history, with futurecontracts traded as low as -37$(Additional developments p.15).

Why did Brent, the international oil benchmark,lost more than 50% of its value in less than 3weeks ?

As Russia publicly announced that it would notmake cuts to its own oil production, Saudi Arabialaunched a price war by deciding to rise itscrude oil production and flood the market withits cheap-to-produce oil. Such an outcomewould have devastated the whole oil industry,especially in the U.S. where shale producers areparticularly exposed to oil price movements, dueto their higher cost of production and their highlevel of indebtedness with short-term repaymentahead.On April 7, the U.S. managed to struck a deal onthe matter with their Russian and Arabiancounterparts and temporarily reassured markets.

Why did Russia refuse to cut a portion of its owndomestic production while other OPECmembers agree ?

Russia is one of the top 3 biggest producer in theworld, with 10 million barrels produced per dayin 2019, equivalent to 10% of the world demandat that time. As Russia is a large producer andalso has a very low cost of productioncompared to the average’s competitors, itrefused to reduce its output in order to gainmarket shares. This would damage otherweaker producers with higher costs ofproduction and squeeze them out of themarket. By not reducing output, the gapbetween demand and supply would havewidened, sending oil prices to very low levelwhere only large producers could survive forsome time. 14

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015 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

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Russia and Caspian Middle East Africa Europe Latin America Asia Pacific North America

Location of oil production that is uneconomic at different Brent prices, 2020

▶ OIL INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL: GLOBAL ANALYSIS IIM

illion

ba

rrels/

da

y

Consequences for

Oil producing countries

The main regions at risk with a persistent low price for oilare the ones with a higher cost of production per barrelor producing lower quality crude oil.

North America is particularly exposed to oil crisis, withshale in the US requiring 45-55$/barrel to breakeven andtar sands in Canada requiring 60$/ barrel to breakevenand make a profit.Other countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia are moreprotected against an oil drop. Saudi Aramco (NOC fromSaudi Arabia) has a cost per barrel of 2.80$ and Rosneft(NOC from Russia) is profitable even with a barrel ofBrent trading at 10-15$.

Despite having very low production costs, Russia andSaudi Arabia need a sustained oil price at acceptablelevels (above 60$/bbl) as oil accounts for a large shareof their GDP. In Russia, 40% of the state’s budget comesfrom oil and gas revenues while in Saudi Arabia it’s closeto 70%.One can easily understand that even if NOC companiesfrom these 2 countries are profitable at extreme lowprices, their economies are extremely sensitive to oilvolatility. State’s budget, from one year to another canbe very different and this may have an impact on all theservices provided by the State such as budget forministries, subsidies for companies, social benefits forcitizens, domestic projects and so on.

A particularly representative example is to compare theprice of Brent between 2014 to 2016 and Saudi Arabia’sGDP over that period. When Brent fell from 110$ a barrelto less than 50$ during these 2 years, Saudi GDP fell from$756 billion in 2014 to $645 billion in 2016, equivalent to a15% drop.

Oil producing companies

For oil companies such as the oil majors (Exxon Mobil,Chevron, Shell, BP, Total), this situation materializes as astress test for the oil industry. Companies exposed to thishistorical low oil price need to protect their balancesheet, reduce their CAPEX & OPEX, postponeexploration & production projects. This may also result inless dividends paid to shareholders as companies haveto re-examine the allocation of their free cash flow.

Large corporations are more resilient to these shocks asthey have accumulated tremendous wealth over thepast decades. Things are more complicated for smallerindependent upstream oil companies, relying on ahigher cost of production and debt. As the chartdepicts, the lower the price of oil, the more exposed areoil producers and particularly U.S. producers. The recentsurge in the shale industry was only possible becauseWall Street and bankers supported companies a fewyears ago and provided them with easy-to-access loansto drill across Texas or the Appalachian Mountains. Butthe bill is coming due for this industry, with $200 billion ofdebt maturing over the next four years and bankruptcylooming ahead for several shale players.

April 21 2020: WTI fell into negative territory for thefirst time in history, obliging producers and traders

to pay buyers to take oil off their hands. The reason isthat storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma was justweeks away from full capacity. This location is the pointwhere traders have to take physical delivery of the WTI.Basically it’s a landlocked choke point, which forms aglut under periods of oversupply like the current one.WTI rebounded to around $15/barrel during thefollowing days, still far away from the $45 to $50/barrelrequired for the shale industry to breakeven.

15

III. KEY EXPECTATIONSIN THE NEAR FUTUREFOR THE ENERGYINDUSTRY

16

▶ COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW FOR BRENT AND WTI FUTURES

The oil market has been recentlyrocked by extreme price swings. Fromclose to $60 per barrel in January 2020,WTI fell in negative territories for the firsttime in April, approaching -$40 perbarrel.

Shale drillers in the US are worried to seethe same event happening again. Arethey right to feel anxious or are priceslikely to recover in the near-term future ?

The answer is not easily foreseeable butlooking at some metrics couldpotentially help to have a rough idea.

As of Monday 27th March where this chart was captured, short-term futures contracts indicatethat the price of oil for June is likely to suffer from a new decrease after the recovery fromnegative prices that WTI experienced the 21st of April. Futures WTI contracts for May expired onApril 22 and due to oversupply, last-minute deals were concluded under 0$ a barrel. A similaroutcome is likely to occur in May for June futures as the chart suggests. WTI June contracts aretrading slightly above $10 a barrel and $20 for Brent, but as the deadline for contracts expiry isapproaching, prices may drop and could follow a similar trend than observed previously.

WTI and Brent prices decrease can be broadly explained by the global situation around theglobe, with a bigger drop in demand compared to supplies, a fragile economic environmentand the uncertainty concerning the easing of lockdown measures. However, some keydifferences are to be taken into account between the two futures to assess their upcoming pricemovements.

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Crude Oil Futures From Selected Benchmarks

WTI Brent

WTIWTI June futures have dropped due to fearsthat oversupply may create another glut atCushing where storages capacities are at anall-time high. As the deadline approaches forJune futures, no one wants to be the last toclose its position ahead of expiry, resulting in anilliquid contract for now. As the expiry loomsahead, future contracts will likely suffer from anincreased volatility. The recent drop in WTIprices can also be explained by the recentdecision of USO, the world’s largest oil-backedETF to sell off its positions for June (USO owned137m barrels of June WTI before changing itsportfolio holdings).

BRENTContrary to WTI, Brent contracts are settled incash rather than in physical deliveries,explaining why the storage fears are less of aproblem for the North Sea crude benchmark.In addition, as Brent is an offshore crude,pipeline gluts are not an issue, but vessels arerequired to transport the oil from offshoreplatforms to coastal refineries. Despite beingmore robust to extreme changes, Brent is notspared from prices decline due to oversuppliesthe oil industry is experiencing. Theinternational oil benchmark has tumbled to itslowest level since 1999 during April. A recoveryis not likely to occur in the next quarter.

Data from Barchart

17

▶ THE FUTURE BALANCE OF OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Data from the International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, 15 Apr. 2020

The original OPEC members, alongside Russia to formOPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, decided in April to cut oilproduction by 9.7 million barrels per day at a May-Junehorizon. Each of the countries involved in this historical dealwill have to reduce their own domestic production tomatch the metrics from the chart. Saudi Arabia and Russiawill take most of the burden by removing more than 2million barrels per day of their own production from themarket. This strategy is aimed at driving oil prices to moresustainable levels to ensure that the oil industry will make itthrough this crisis and also to drive up States' budget fromthe main oil producers, heavily reliant on the black gold tofund their domestic projects.The projected oil cuts are supposed to last for some time,as when demand will be back to normal levels, oilproducers will benefit from a rising, profitable oil price.

On the non-OPEC side, some cuts in the oil production arelikely to occur but it is not clear to which extent and if itwill be voluntary or driven by market forces as the USsuggests. The US and Canada in particular will be forcedto decrease their production due to the low oil priceenvironment. American production reached almost 13million barrels per day at the end of 2019 but the EnergyInformation Administration warned that output will bedown to 11 million barrels per day by 2021. According toone of the biggest shale producers in the US, PioneerNatural Resources, output could be reduced by 3 millionbarrels per day with a $35/barrel environment and by 7million barrels per day with a $10/barrel environment,highlighting the sensitivity of the US oil industry to oil crises.Even if the US, Canada, Norway and Brazil agreed thatglobal oil cuts are required to maintain oil prices at acertain threshold, it is not sure that their own reduction willresult from a Government-driven decision or by the marketitself.

Based on the estimated oil cuts, global oil supplies shoulddecrease by almost 10% compared to their pre-crisis levelthrough 2020, the biggest drop ever observed in the oilsector. According to the International Energy Agency, bythe end of the third quarter of 2020, oil consumption will risesteeply, due to the expected recovery of the economyand the end of lockdown measures. As the graph suggests,the rebound of demand will surpass oil production as thedecided oil cuts are not supposed to end by 2020. Thismeans that potentially, the price of oil may rise to levelsseen before the crisis, close to $60 per barrel or even higherdepending on the level of oil inventories and the length ofthe oil cuts. The oil industry severely suffers from the ongoingcrisis, but the $100/barrel era is maybe not gone forever.

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As seen previously, the short-term future for oil prices is not likely to recover from the Covid-19 effects.The U.S. is particularly hit by consistent low prices due to the impossibility for its oil industry to breakevenwith a barrel below $45-50. The longer term view should be more promising for oil producers, due to theeasing of global lockdowns, voluntary cuts in oil production for some, forced ones for others. But let’sremember that the end of the epidemy is unknown as well as the recovery of the demand. Only the mostrobust oil producers will make it through this period of uncertainty, with State aids for most of them.

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▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHERCOMMODITIES I: NATURAL GAS

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Oil-indexed prices Spot prices Data: IEA

The latest fluctuations of oil prices spread acrossother segments of the energy sector. In particular,natural gas prices are highly correlated to the price ofoil, as far as long-term agreements are concerned.The global demand decline encompasses all types ofcommodities and the natural gas sector is noexception.

The price per Mbtu (Million British Thermal Unit) ofnatural gas in the first quarter of 2020 averaged $7.50-11 and decreased to $4-5,50/Mbtu in the third quarterfor long term indexed-oil contracts, meaning the gassupply chain is also facing an upward pressure.Natural gas producers and utilities companies willhave to reduce their capital and operationalexpenditures as revenues are on the decline.Concretely, this may result, as for the oil sector, in anadjustment of supplies, varying among the countries.However, the shock is less likely to drive gas prices intonegative territories as there is still some room forstorage and the use of transport is more limited thanfor oil.

Concerning Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), the surge ofnew projects development allowed to bring moreflexibility to the gas sector. More LNG volumes are soldon a spot basis compared to long-term oil-indexedcontracts agreements. The flexibility brought by LNGconcerns both the physical deliveries of natural gasand the financial and contractual terms of thiscommodity. Selling LNG on a spot basis enhances thedecoupling between oil and gas prices. This is useful ifthe price of oil crashes as it will not spread to the spotprice of natural gas. But other challenges are beingfaced by the LNG industry, similar to oil by someaspects and different due to the structure of thisparticular market:- A lower global demand for energy products led to

a decrease in prices for these products, includingLNG.

- LNG buyers are cancelling their orders of gas,invoking force majeure clauses. This occurredmainly in China, the 2nd biggest LNG importer afterJapan, as the lockdown hit the country, many portswere closed and gas consumption was running atvery low levels. Some LNG tankers were anchoredoff Chinese ports, while some others were reroutingtowards different markets.

- In the longer term, a structural LNG oversupplyalongside a drop in oil is likely to imply a sustainedhigh liquidity environment with low LNG prices. Thiswould make it more complex to finance new LNGprojects, as long-term, oil-indexed contractscontinue to tie LNG prices to capacitydevelopment. Many LNG liquefaction projects areunder development and the lower demand maykeep spot prices low for some time.

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▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHERCOMMODITIES II:COAL

According to the IEA, coal consumption is likely tofall by 8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with ayear earlier. Related to this decrease is the lowerdemand for electricity across the globe, as coal ismostly used as a feedstock for power plants. Asiaaccounted for 90% of all coal-fired capacity built in thepast 20 years, explaining why even today, most of theelectricity produced in the world is coming from coal(see pie).

Due to global lockdown measures, total coalconsumption fell to 2010 levels, around 5 Mtoe (Milliontons of oil equivalent) compared with 5.4 Mtoe in 2019.This drop is mainly led by China, which accounts forroughly half of the world’s coal consumption. Therestrictive measures taken by Beijing resulted in a 9%decline for coal power generation in the country. Thecontraction of the Chinese economy and the declinein demand were responsible for this drop.

World gross electricity production by source, 2017

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Coal demand in the power sector (2000 - Apr 2020)

Coal consumption was already on the decline in 2019as other sources of electricity production are cost-competitive and emit less CO2 in the atmospherecompared to coal. In 2020, coronavirus is addinganother concern for coal producers with the fastestrate of decrease in coal consumption ever recordedat a global scale since World War II.

This decline is reflected across the price of differentcoal grades delivered around the world. Thermal coalshipped to Europe fell to $40/t, its lowest level since2003. In Australia, the high-quality coal benchmark forthe Asian market dropped to a 4 year low of $51/t inearly May 2020 compared to $68/t a month earlier.

Total gross electricity produc1on by source, 2017 (in TWh)

Coal 9774

Natural gas 5916

Hydro 4372

Nuclear 2572

Wind 1029

Oil 771

Biofuels and waste 514

Solar 514

Geothermal, tidal, … 257

Coal38%

Natural gas23%

Hydro17%

Nuclear10%

Wind4%

Oil3%

Biofuels and waste2% Solar

2%

Geothermal, Tidal1%

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▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHERCOMMODITIES III: ELECTRICITYSince 2010, electricity consumption has increased

by an average 2.6% per year as more businesses andhouseholds are connected to the grid and moreproducts require electricity, such as electric vehicles,data servers or IOT. The growth in electricityconsumption is mainly driven by Asian countries suchas China and India which are intensifying their effort toprovide electricity to their 1 billion and morepopulation respectively.

However, in the first quarter of 2020, global electricitydemand has decreased by 2.5% due to lockdownmeasures imposed in many countries. Depending onthe extent of the lockdown, the weather and theelectricity mix in each country, the decrease inelectricity consumption was diverse but overall, as forother sources of energy, the demand waned.According to the International Energy Agency,electricity demand in China was reduced in total by15% when lockdown measures were fullyimplemented, in Germany it decreased by 10% andby more than 20% in Italy.

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Renewable electricity generation by region, 2018

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Asia Pacific

The global decline in electricity consumption is alsolikely to drive revenues down for electricity producersand this may be reflected in the postponement ofnon-essential projects. Coal demand should drop by8% this year and natural gas by 5% for electricitygeneration. Fortunately, this setback will probably notaffect too much the renewable sector, with wind andsolar emerging as the big winners of this crisis. Therenewable sector is the only one in the global energysystem that is supposed to grow in 2020. Responsiblefor this growth are the new wind projects comingonline in the U.S. and the competitiveness of cleanenergy prices. According to BloombergNEF,renewables are the cheapest sources of energy fortwo thirds of the world’s population. Having also apreferred access to the grid, renewables mayaccount for a larger share of the global electricity mixby the end of the year.

The global outlook for renewables seems attractive,but with fossil fuels at a very low price, supposed tolast for several months, the competition between gas,coal and the renewables may intensify in the powersector. This may harm the development of requiredclean energy to target the next challenge humanbeings have to face: climate change.

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Net consumption of electricity worldwide, 1980 - 2020

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IV.ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS

22

In parallel to this energy crisis, the healthcrisis will lead to a drop in all exports fromAfrican countries integrated intoglobalization. This appears even moredetrimental in the context of the Silk Roadsproject and the creation of an economicfree trade area on the continent. As a result,Africa's GDP for 2020 would fall from 3.2% to1.8% according to the ECA. The World Bankis even predicting a recession not seen in 25years on the continent.

From an Economic Crisis to A Health CrisisThat Could Be Much More Serious Given theFragility of The Health System

In fact, several African countries have hardlyany artificial respirators that are necessary toarm intensive care unit (ICU) beds againstCOVID-19: Central African Republic has only3 of them, Burkina Faso 11 and Sierra Leone18 for 5, 19 and 18 million inhabitants,respectively (3), compared to severalthousand for countries such as France andthe United Kingdom, which have comeclose to saturation of their ICU beds. Inaddition to this heavy medical equipment,the scientific journal The Lancet points outthat on average East African countries have"no more than five hospital beds and twodoctors per 10,000 inhabitants". This raisesquestions about the capacity of Africancountries to respond to a disease as viral asCOVID-19, not only in terms of patientmanagement, but also in terms of screeningsymptomatic and even more difficult toscreen asymptomatic citizens.

COVID-19 Health Crisis Leads to Economicand Energy Crisis for African ExportingCountries

The COVID-19 crisis highlights thedependence of African countries on theexport of raw materials as well as on energyresources such as oil. Never in world energyhistory has the oil consumption (but also ofother resources) decreased so brutally as inthe last two months. This sharp fall indemand has led to an unprecedented dropin oil prices, from nearly $70 in January 2020to less than $10 in April. This raises thequestion of how the economies, mostlydependent on these exports, such asNigeria, Angola, Gabon and Algeria, willadapt. For example, Algeria's exports are 95per cent dependent on oil and gas, whileNigeria's exports are 90 per cent dependenton oil alone.

The Organization of Petroleum ExportingCountries (OPEC) and the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) issued a joint statementdetailing their concerns and that “theyagreed that these create material impacts,particularly for citizens of developingcountries including those that rely heavily onincome from oil and gas production foressential services and that are especiallyvulnerable to market volatility (1).” Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria,Angola and Algeria, have agreed on ahistoric reduction in their oil production. Theydecided in mid-April and from the 1st of Mayon a reduction of almost 10 million barrelsper day. The aim is to limit supply so thatprices gradually return to sustainable levelsfor oil producing countries. The UnitedNations Economic Commission for Africa(ECA) is currently predicting a loss of nearly$65 billion as a result of this fall in energyprices for African countries (2). Energyrevenues would thus fall to $101 billioninstead of the $166 billion expected withoutthe Covid-19 crisis.

▶ THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 FOR AFRICAN COUNTRIES, THEIR ECONOMIES AND THEIR HEALTH SYSTEMS I

23

The Continent the Least Affected by TheDisease So Far, At Least Officially

Africa seems to be spared from thepandemic for several reasons. First, thedifferent populations of African countries areglobally younger than the world average.The average age in Africa is 19 years oldcompared to nearly 30 years old globally.Preliminary results from the COVID-19 studiessuggest that the younger a person is, the lesslikely they are to be ill or at leastsymptomatic. Another reason given is thatseveral African countries have already beenimpacted in the past by other epidemics (4),which had only a regional horizon: Zika firstdetected in Uganda or more recently Ebolain DRC. African countries have been able todevelop an adapted health culture andgood practices more rooted in thepopulations.

Nevertheless, caution should be exercisedas there may be other reasons for this lowofficial contamination rate. One reason mayalso be the fact that it is more difficult tocarry out large-scale tests on the continent,given the less complete sanitaryorganization. In other words, the continentwould only be officially less affected, whileunofficially the reality would be quitedifferent.

Every Effort Must Be Made to Prevent theExponential Spread of the Virus on TheContinent As Soon As Possible

To prevent an exponential spread of thevirus, which would be virtuallyuncontrollable, national and internationalresponses are gradually being implemented.

On the African continent, a task force - theAfrica Task Force for Novel Coronavirus(AFCOR) - has been set up by the AfricanCentre for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) and the African Union (AU), whichbrings together some of the richest countrieson the continent - Senegal, South Africa,Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya - to coordinate thevarious mechanisms at the continental leveland provide a coherent response.

The response to this crisis is also economic,with numerous plans to support theeconomy. The World Bank and the IMF aregoing to join forces in a global plan tosupport vulnerable countries and people tothe tune of $160 million over 15 months. Inaddition, country-specific targeted aid isbeing put in place. For example, the IMF willlend nearly $3.4 billion to Nigeria, which hasbeen forced to devalue its currency. Franceis going to reallocate development aidcredits of nearly 1.2 billion euros to the fightagainst COVID-19 in Africa, following anannouncement made by Mr. Le Drian,French Minister of Foreign Affairs. This aid willconcern 19 African countries, France's mainpartners such as Burkina Faso, Senegal andthe Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

▶ THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 FOR AFRICAN COUNTRIES, THEIRECONOMIES AND THEIR HEALTH SYSTEMS II

24

Ronan Fleckstein

Edouard Lotz

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS

Edouard Lotz is aformer student ofESCP Europe BusinessSchool and holds anMSc in EnergyManagement. Heworked for theFrench multinationalSUEZ and is currentlyworking for Ecoslops,a Cleantechcompany in the oilsector as a BusinessDeveloper/Analyst.

Ronan Flecksteinstudied at SorbonneUniversity where heobtained a Masterdegree in publicadministration. Heworked for theMinistry of Defenceand the Senate as alegal expert. He iscurrently working atthe HospitalDelafontaine as partof his training as ahospital manager.

25

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•World Energy Outlook, 2019. IEA. pp.141, 142.

•Worldoil.com. 2020. IHS Markit Sees Forced Oil Production Cuts Of 10Mmbpd Ahead. [online] Available at:<https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/31/ihs-markit-sees-forced-oil-production-cuts-of-10mmbpd-ahead> [Accessed 24 April 2020].

•Wto.org. 2020. Trade Set To Plunge As COVID-19 Pandemic Upends Global Economy. [online] Available at:<https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm> [Accessed 24 April 2020].

ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS SOURCES

1. OPEC, March 16th 2020, IEA Executive Director and OPEC Secretary General discussed the current situation in global oil markets

2. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, March 13th 2020, Economic Impact of the COVID-19 on Africa

3. Financial Times, April 8th 2020, African health officials warn of chronic medical shortage

4. Financial Times, April 15th 2020, Africa’s scientists learn from past epidemics to fight COVID-19

26

May 2020 Report

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