The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026 · 3.6 Electric mobility 3.7 On-demand mobility 3.8...

The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026

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Contents

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Contents

1.1 Developments in the global light vehicle market

1.2 Megatrends in the automotive industry

1.3 Methodology

2.1 Asia and Oceania

2.1.1 Market overview

2.1.2 Market outlook

2.1.3 Country profiles

Australia

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

New Zealand

Pakistan

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

2.2 Central and South America



Chapter 1– Executive Summary

Chapter 2 – Global Light Vehicle Market

Contents

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Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Columbia

Uruguay

2.3 Europe




Czech Republic

France

Germany

Italy

Poland

Russia

Spain

Turkey

UK

2.4 Middle East and Africa




Egypt

Iran

Israel

Saudi Arabia

South Africa

Contents

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UAE

2.5 North America




Canada

Mexico

USA

3.1 Autonomous driving

3.2 Big data

3.3 Connectivity

3.4 Consolidations in Asia

3.5 Cyber security

3.6 Electric mobility

3.7 On-demand mobility

3.8 Revenue growth and diversification

4.1 Aluminium

4.2 Composites

4.3 Glass

4.4 Plastics

4.5 Steel

4.6 Lightweighting and its implication for automotive materials

Chapter 3 – Megatrends in the Light Vehicle Industry

Chapter 4 – Global Light Vehicle Materials Market

Contents

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5.1 Strategies and competitive landscapes

5.2 Strategies for autonomous and connected vehicles

A.1 Canada

A.2 Brazil

A.3 China

A.4 France

A.5 Germany

A.6 India

A.7 Italy

A.8 Japan

A.9 UK

A.10 US

B.1 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement in units

B.2 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement in value

Table 1.1 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table 1.2 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Chapter 5 – Market Strategies and Competitive landscapes

Appendix A – Light Vehicle Sales in Major Countries by Segments

(A, B, C, D, E, F, SUV, MPV, Sport, Pick up and others) 2015-2026

(‘000 units)

List of Tables

Appendix B – Trade statistics 2006-2015

Contents

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Table 1.3 Global light vehicle sales by region 2015-2026 (million units)

Table 2.1 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table 2.2 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Table 2.3 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle average prices by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($)

Table 2.4 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table 2.5 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Table 2.6 Central and South American light vehicle average prices by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($)

Table 2.7 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table 2.8 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Table 2.9 European light vehicle average prices by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($)

Table 2.10 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table 2.11 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Table 2.12 Middle East and Africa light vehicle average prices by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($)

Table 2.13 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table 2.14 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Table 2.15 North American light vehicle average prices by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($)

Table 3.1 Various scenarios for semi and fully autonomous vehicles sales 2016-2040 (% share)

Table 3.2 Automotive big data revenue 2015-2026 ($billions)

Table 3.3 Global connected car market revenue segmentation by safety, autonomous driving and

connected services 2015-2026 ($ billions, % change)

Table 3.4 Connected car market revenue by region 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Table 3.5 Car sharing market by members, vehicles and member per vehicle by 6 regions 2006-2026

(‘000, % ratio)

Table 3.6 Global automotive revenues by major value chain components 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Contents

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Table 4.1 Global demand for steel, aluminium, other metals, plastics, glass and other materials by 10

light vehicle segments in 2015 (tonnes)

Table 4.2 Global aluminium demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Table 4.3 Evolution of aluminium usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments

2015-2026 (% of curb weight)

Table 4.4 Global glass demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Table 4.5 Evolution of glass usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026

(% of curb weight)

Table 4.6 Global plastics demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Table 4.7 Evolution of plastics usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments 2015-

2026 (% of curb weight)

Table 4.8 Plastic demand by type in the global light vehicle industry (‘000 tonnes)

Table 4.9 Global steel demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Table 4.10 Evolution of steel usage as a % of curb weight across 10 light vehicle segments 2015-

2026 (% of curb weight)

Table 4.11 Steel demand by type in the global light vehicle industry 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Table 5.1 The top 10 car makers’s R&D spendings on autonomous vehicles and expected launching

years ($ millions)

Table 5.2 Top 10 car makers in the connected car market by revenue and market share in 2015 ($

billions, % share)

Table 5.3 Car manufacturers by brands

Table A.1 Canadian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.2 Brazilian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.3 Chines light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.4 Franch light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.5 German light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.6 Indian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Contents

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Table A.7 Italian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.8 Japanes light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.9 UK light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table A.10 US light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Table B.1 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement for 150 countries (‘00 units)

Table B.2 Net exports of light vehicles by engine displacement for 150 countries ($ millions)

Figure 1.1 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Figure 1.2 Global light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Figure 1.3 Global light vehicle sales by region 2015-2026 (million units)

Figure 2.1 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Figure 2.2 Asian and Oceanian light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Figure 2.3 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Figure 2.4 Central and South American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Figure 2.5 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Figure 2.6 European light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Figure 2.7 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Figure 2.8 Middle Eastern and African light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Figure 2.9 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

Figure 2.10 North American light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

Figure 3.1 Various scenarios for semi and fully autonomous vehicles sales 2016-2040 (% share)

Figure 3.2 Automotive big data revenue 2015-2026 ($billions)

List of Figures

Contents

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Figure 3.3 Global connected car market revenue segmentation by safety, autonomous driving and

connected services 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Figure 3.4 Connected car market revenue by region 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Figure 3.5 Global automotive revenues by major value chain components 2015-2026 ($ billions)

Figure 4.1 Evolution of global average curb weight 2004-2026 (kg)

Figure 4.2 Global demand for steel, aluminium, other metals, plastics, glass and other materials by 10

light vehicle segments in 2015 (tonnes)

Figure 4.3 Global aluminium demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Figure 4.4 Global glass demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Figure 4.5 Global plastics demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Figure 4.6 Plastic demand by type in global light vehicle market 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Figure 4.7 Global steel demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Figure 4.8 Steel demand by type in global light vehicle market 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

Chart 4.1 The composites market share by three types 2015 and 2026 (% share)

Chart 4.2 A snapshot of composites supply chain market and major players, 2016

Chart 4.3 Automotive plastics usage by type in major components 2016

Chart 4.4 Major automotive plastics types by producers 2016

Chart 4.5 Weight reductions in relationship with materials and prices ($, %)

Chart 4.6 Current and future potential for materials substitutions and implications on costs

List of Charts


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2015 was the worst year for light vehicle sales in Central and South America, when sales registered

almost 20% decline. We expect that the regional sales will be on a downward trajectory till 2017

mainly as a result of a slowdown in Brazil. The region is often affected by social and political

instability which remain a drag on the market, and we expect that such situation will continue to

prevail in the market over the forecast period. Brazil will take slightly longer to recover compared to

other neighbouring countries as it is more vulnerable to commodity prices and currency fluctuation.

Over the next 1-2 years the region will remain relatively unchanged in terms of sales compositions,

though afterwards, SUV segment will increase its market share by cannibalising the smaller vehicles

market. Despite the bleak short term outlook, the regional automotive market has still enormous

upside risks as car ownerships are low and disposable income is relatively higher compared to other

developing regional markets.


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Table 0.1: European light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 (‘000 units)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

A city car

B subcompact

C compact

D midsize

E large

F luxury

SUV/CUV

MPV

Pick-up

Others

Europe

Table 0.2: European light vehicle sales by 10 segments 2015-2026 ($ millions)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

A city car

B subcompact

C compact

D midsize

E large

F luxury

SUV/CUV

MPV

Pick-up

Others

Europe


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Egypt

Macroeconomic indicators

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Real GDP % growth

GDP per capita % growth

Population

Population % growth

Light vehicle market indicators

Light vehicle sales (units)

% change

Region share (%)

Global share (%)

Total vehicles in use (units)

% change

Motorisation rate (‘000 people)


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3.7 On-demand mobility

On-demand mobility is best fit for areas with high population density and substantial vehicle base.

Presently, one vehicle is used for all trip purposes for instance, shopping, travelling, work commute

etc. On-demand mobility will allow users to use best solutions for each of their needs. Once shared

mobility becomes prevalent, vehicles will be designed according to specific needs. So, in the future,

there will be a specific car for specific trip purposes for instance city car for work commute, minivan

for travelling, pickup for shopping etc. Similarly, cars for a Transportation Network Company (TNC)

will be designed to be reliable and durable as they are used more often, while cars designed for

vacations will be optimised for comforts.


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Table 0.3: Car sharing market by members, vehicles and member per vehicle by 6 regions 2006-2026 (‘000, % ratio)

Asia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V

Europe 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V

North America 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V

South America 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V

Oceania 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V

Africa & Middle East 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V

Global 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Members

vehicles

M-V


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Carmakers employ different strategies for reducing a car weight. In the economy and sedan segments,

OEMs tend to use more advanced steel such as Advanced High Strength Steel (AHSS) and Ultra High

Strength Steel (UHSS). In an upper-class model, OEMs prefer a mixture of AHSS, aluminium and

composites. In premium and luxury vehicles, most weight reduction comes from an extensive use of

aluminium, while in super premium and sports cars lightweighting achieved by more usage of carbon

fibre. The use of materials is closely correlated with materials costs and car category.

Table 0.4: Global usage of steel, aluminium, other metals, plastics, glass and other materials by 10 light

vehicle segments in 2015 (tonnes)

Steel Aluminium Other metals Plastics Glass Others

A city car

B subcompact

C compact

D midsize

E large

F luxury

SUV/CUV

MPV

Sport(y)

Pick-up

Other

Total


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Table 0.5: Global steel demand by 10 light vehicle segments 2015-2026 (‘000 tonnes)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Chapter 5 – Market Strategies and Competitive Landscapes

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With regards to the development of autonomous vehicles technology, Toyota is running behind its

rivals. In 2014, it announced not to pursue the autonomous driving technology for safety reasons.

However, the company is now planning to roll out its development plans in two stages. Over the

next 4-5 years, Toyota is expected to introduce its first self-driving car, though initially capable of

running on highways only. In the next stage, the company will introduce a fully autonomous

vehicle which can be used on any roads. The company has already started investing in

autonomous driving technologies. We estimate that the company spent around $255 million on

autonomous vehicle technology projects in 2015, and the spending is expected to reach $1bn in

2016. We expect that its investment in AV’s R&D will keep increasing over the first 4-5 years for

ADT development and will stay relatively flat afterwards.

Chapter 5 – Market Strategies and Competitive Landscapes

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Table 0.6: 2015 Top 10 car makers developing autonomous driving technologies by AV R&D spending

and expected launch of AV ($ millions)

Company R&D spending on AV technology ($ millions) Expected Year of Launch

Daimler AG

Volkswagen Group

General Motors Co.

Honda Motor Co.

Ford Motor Company

Nissan Motor Company

BMW Group

Hyundai Motor Group

AB Volvo

Toyota Motor Corporation

The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026

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This report will provide you an in-depth analysis

on the following:

The conventional light vehicle market is analysed by 10 segments (A, B, C, D, F, SUV/CUV, MPV,

Sport(y), Pick-up and others).

The full coverage of conventional light vehicle market in terms of sales volume and value.

Coverage of the whole world by 5 regions and

selected major countries.

Discussion on the major megatrends.

Detailed analysis of steel, aluminium, plastics,

glass, composites and others materials.

Market projections for connected car, shared mobility, autonomous vehicles and big data

82 tables, figures and charts

This is a content rich report with all supportive

data is provided in Excel.

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The Global Light Vehicle Market Outlook to 2026 · 3.6 Electric mobility 3.7 On-demand mobility 3.8...

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