The Global Energy Challengeaceer.uprm.edu/pdfs/global_energy.pdf · Price of a barrel of oil,...
Transcript of The Global Energy Challengeaceer.uprm.edu/pdfs/global_energy.pdf · Price of a barrel of oil,...
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The Global Energy ChallengeRoel Snieder
Photo: USFWS/Susanne Miller
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The Global Climate and Energy Project
StanfordParticipating outside institutionsPending outside institutions
Mission• Research on low-GHG emission energy
conversions• Focus on fundamental and pre-commercial
research• Applications in the 10-50 years timeframe
Strategy• Research projects with potential for significant
impact on GHG emissions• Look for potential breakthroughs for new
conversion options• High risk / high reward• Work at Stanford and at other institutions
around the world
Schedule and Budget• 10 years (2003 – 2013+)• $225 M
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Total global energy demand
70%increase
(International Energy Outlook 2006)
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Developing countries
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… and our energy use
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Our energy-dependence (1)
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Our energy-dependence (2)
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Energy use by type
(International Energy Outlook 2006)
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Peak oil
N.B. based on USGS estimates, these are among the most optimistic
(Energy Information administration)
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Peak oil (again)
http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Overview
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Declining production (1)
resource depleted
Time
Pro
duct
ion
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Declining production (2)
production gap!
Time
Pro
duct
ion
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Oil Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record Set in 1980
(NYT, March 4, 2008)
Price of a barrel of oil,adjusted for inflation
$103.76, April 1980 $102.45, March 2008
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
(Source: Federal Reserve Energy Information Administration)
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John Hess, CEO of Hess Corp.“We've moved from a supply-led market to a demand-led one.
In the past, the world has relied on OPEC's spare capacity, which in 1985 was 10 million barrels per day. Today that
number is about 2.5 million barrels a day. We no longer have a safety margin to ensure price stability in the face of supply interruptions and demand spikes. Right now it's hard to see any relief in sight. Then there's demand. About 50 percent of oil demand is for transportation, and auto ownership in the
developing countries is growing swiftly, especially in India and China. ….. Put those two things together - limited supply and
increasing demand - and you get high oil prices.”
(Newsweek, March 15, 2008, http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482)
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New find in GOM(Jack No. 2 test well)
• up to 3-15 billion barrels of oil
• US consumption 20 million barrels/day
• 5 months - 2 years
• reservoir is 8 km under sea level
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A Quest for Energy in the Globe’s Remote Places
(New York Times, October 9, 2007)
A natural gas cargo ship passing Melkoya Island, across the bay from Hammerfest, Norway.
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Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports
(New York Times, December 9, 2007)
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Who has the oil?USA China
India
(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)
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What is the plan?
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A New, Global Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories
(NYT, January 19, 2008)
Rising prices for cooking oil are forcing residents of Asia’s largest slum, in Mumbai, India, to ration every drop. Bakeries in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs.
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Carbohydrates and biofuel
Do we feed humans or cars?
Is it a good idea to compete with our machines for calories?
glucose cellulose
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Research: biofuel from cellulose
0 5 10 15 20 25Feed cost ($/GJ)
25
20
15
10
5
Pro
cess
ing
cost
s ($
/GJ)
oil (100$/barrel)
gas
starch(glucose)
cellulose
vegetableoil
http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/biomass.html(Figure adapted from Lange, J.P., Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 1: 39-48, 2007)
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First solar 2 MW arrayFt. Carson, CO
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Research: efficient solar cells
1μm
http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/solar.html
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Fossil fuel reserves
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
• The R/P ratio is the number of years that proved reserves would last at current production rates.
World R/P ratios are: Oil = 40.5 years; Natural Gas = 66.7 years; Coal = 164 years
U.S. R/P ratios are:Oil = 11.1 years; Natural Gas = 9.8 years;Coal = 245 years
Oil Gas Coal
40.5 yrs.
66.7 yrs.
164 yrs.
200
0
Prov
en W
orld
Rese
rves-t
o-Pr
oduc
tion R
atio
at En
d 200
4 (Ye
ars)
100
Your children
Your grand-children
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Non-convenional reserves(excluding gas and coal)
Produced (gone)Proved Reserves
Undiscovered(?)
EORExtra Heavy Oil& Tar Sands Shale Oil
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Trillions of Barrels Recoverable
Years Supply at2005 Production
Unconventional petroleum resources:(more difficult & dirty, and therefore expen$ive)
Conventional(“easy”)
0 25 50
(Courtesy of Joe Stefani)
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World’s unconventional production
N.B. World’s annual oil consumption 2006 is 85 million barrels/daySource: Energy Information Administration, 2007
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Non-conventional oil
from National Geographic, June 2004
Tar Sand
HeavyOil
Oilshale
2 tons of tar sands produce 1 barrel of bitumen (~asphalt)
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CO2 emissions vs fuel type
NREL technical report NREL/TP-840-400665
lbs
per M
Wh
CoalNatural gas
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The Greenhouse Effect
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Temperature and CO2 records
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 now
Thousands of year before present
20
-2-4-6-8
-10
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
(oC
)
400
350
300
250
200
Car
bon
Dio
xode
(ppm
v)
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IPCC 4th Report
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
850 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A2)680 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A1B)550 ppm CO2 in 2100 (B1)Year 2000 constant concentration
20th century
4oC
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What is 4oC difference?
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 now
Thousands of year before present
20
-2-4-6-8
-10
Tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
(oC
)
WürmRiss
4oC
4oC
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Arctic sea ice 1995-2007
(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)
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Arctic sea ice 2005-2007
(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)
4.3 million sq km4.3 million sq km
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Sea-level rise in Florida
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…. and in other parts of the world
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Sea_Level_Rise_Maps_Gallery
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Curbing CO2 emissions
(Pascala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)
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The 7 wedges
(Pascala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)
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Choose 7 out of 15 wedges distributed over:
• energy efficiency and conservation
• nuclear energy
• renewable energy and fuels
• more efficient forest and land use
• injecting CO2 in the subsurface
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One wedge is …..
• generate electricity at 60% efficiency
• wind turbines: 3% of the USA surface
• photovoltaics: 700 X today’s use
• nuclear power: double (build 500)
• inject 3 Giga-ton of CO2 per year
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Energy efficiencyLost energy = 60%!
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Research: high-temperature combustion
turbinefuel/H20
http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/combustion.html
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Efficiency can pay off
Current USA emissions: 7 Gigatons CO2/yearSource: McKinsey analysis, http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp
Gigatons/year
Cost per ton CO2
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
-120
-230
1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
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How much CO2 to sequester?
• one wedge is 3 GtCO2/year• world oil production is 4 Gt/year
1 km
2 km
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The Sleipner project as a show-caseX 3500 !
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Kuwait from space
N
30 km
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Research: gas separation
http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/co2capture.html
Develop membranes to separate H2 or CO2 for carbon-free hydrogen production.
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What can I do as educator?
“I think we have the responsibility to insist that education is more than learning job skills, that it is
also the bedrock of a democracy. I think we must be very careful that in the race to become wealthier, more prestigious, and to be ranked Number One,
we don't lose sight of the real purpose of education, which is to make people free - to give them the
grounding they need to think for themselves and participate as intelligent members of a free society.”
Myers, T.M., A student is not an input, NYT, March 26, 2001
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How much CO2 is produced by burning the coal in one railroad car?
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Conservation requires education
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From the thirteen myths ….• Today’s energy crisis is a hype
• The public is well informed about energy
• The hydrogen economy is a solution
• Efficiency improvements have reached their potential
• Climate policy will bankrupt the US economy
• World-wide power systems are optimal
(Energy and American society - thirteen myths, eds. B.K. Sovacool and M.A. Brown)
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Lobby for a climate commitment
http://www.presidentsclimatecommitment.org/
1. Initiate the development of a comprehensive plan to achieve climate neutrality as soon as possible.
2. Initiate two or more of the following tangible actions to reduce greenhouse gases while the more comprehensive plan is being developed….
3. Make the action plan, inventory, and periodic progress reports publicly available ……
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What can I do as consumer?
Lighting Transportation Appliances
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Oil needed to produce bottled water
(http://www.armchairenvironmentalist.com/blog/index.php?paged=2)
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Kirsch CenterDeAnza Community College
Energy saving: $65,000/year
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Plug-in vehicles
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Consider the life-cycle
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Consider the life-cycle
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What can I do as student?
• become a professional
• seek out new opportunities
• push for energy conservation
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Seek projects
http://community.uui.asu.edu/features/solar.asp
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What can I do in business?
• Seek opportunities in sustainable business (for ideas: http://www.sustainablebusiness.com)
• Create an energy plan and save.
• Imagine what is possible when energy prices rise.
http://www.danchiras.com
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What can I do as citizen?
• Ask: what is our energy plan?
• Start a discussion in your community.
• Demand that the United States becomes a world-leader in responsible use of energy.
“That which we are, we shall teach, not voluntarily but involuntarily.” [Emerson]
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What if we had the courage to dream …..
and raise fuel standards for cars by 25% to European levels,
generate 20% of electricity by wind (as Denmark does),
generate another 20% of electricity from sunlight,
and conserve 20% by increased efficiency.
This can be done if we want it to happen!
“To have sustainable economic growth 10 years from now, both consumers and producers need to start acting now.”
John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation in Newsweek, 3/15/2008http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482
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Questions/comments?
Send feedback to Roel Snieder: email [email protected]
Presentation: http://www.mines.edu/~rsnieder/Global_Energy.html
“The difference between stumbling blocks and stepping stones is how you use them.”