The Global Energy · PDF fileThe Global Energy Scene Scott W. Tinker. Tinker, Tinker 20182015...
Transcript of The Global Energy · PDF fileThe Global Energy Scene Scott W. Tinker. Tinker, Tinker 20182015...
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
IAGC
February, 2018
The Global Energy Scene
Scott W. Tinker
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Population
Clean Water
Education
Healthcare
Housing
Hunger
Climate
Immigration
Status of Women
Unemployment
Crime
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
Energy has had a
transformational impact on
the quality of human life.
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Yet there exists a “good”
and “bad” energy dialog in
the public psyche.
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Most people do not know how
electricity is made or where
gasoline comes from.
The Dilemma
But… they think they do!
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Outline
The Energy Mix
Electricity & Transportation
Energy Poverty
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Global PopulationEach color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people
Petroleum
Nat Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro Renew
The Global Energy Mix
4331
3135
3840
583 893
365
Tinker 2017
86%
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Global PopulationEach color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people
Petroleum
Nat Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro Renew
The Global Energy MixTinker 2017
86%
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent
1036
881
429
216
151 83
323
15737
5
153
24
862
903
468
264
194 143
426
441
11 1 6 0
183
122
97
2 27 41501
6312798
95362 111
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Global PopulationEach color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people
Petroleum
Nat Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro Renew
The Global Energy MixTinker 2017
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent
1036
881
429
216
151 83
323
15737
5
153 24
862
903
468
264
194143
42644
1
111 6 0
183
122
972
27 4 1501
6312798
95
362 111
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global Energy Consumption (MTOE)
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global Energy Consumption (MTOE)
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Solar Wind
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Solar Wind Biomass
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Installed Wind Capacity (MW)
Total Asia Pacific Total Africa
Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America
Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1996 2001 2006 2011
Installed Photovoltaic Capacity (MW)
China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global Energy Consumption Mix
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
41%
16%
38%
29%
24%
33%
95% 86%
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Solar Wind
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Installed Wind Capacity (MW)
Total Asia Pacific Total Africa Total Middle East
Total S. & Cent. America Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1996 2001 2006 2011
Installed Photovoltaic Capacity (MW)
China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global Energy Consumption (MTOE)
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Solar Wind
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Renewable Consumption (MTOE)
Solar Wind Biomass
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Installed Wind Capacity (MW)
Total Asia Pacific Total Africa
Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America
Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1996 2001 2006 2011
Installed Photovoltaic Capacity (MW)
China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others
Global Energy Mix
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global Energy Consumption Mix
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass
Nuclear Wind, Solar, Biofuels
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 2014
4
10
12
8
6
2
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100
Asia
F o r e c a s tG
lob
al P
op
ula
tion
(B)
Population and Energy
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 2014
4
10
12
8
6
2
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100
Asia
F o r e c a s tG
lob
al P
op
ula
tion
(B)
Population and Energy
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
“The world
could be 100%
wind, wave and
solar by 2030,
if just for
political will…”
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 2014
4
10
12
8
6
2
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100
Asia
F o r e c a s tG
lob
al P
op
ula
tion
(B)
Population and Energy
Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (2016)
Asia
Energy by Population
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
QAe5833
United StatesSolar photovoltaics
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
02010 13 1411 12 15 16
Source: Economist, Solar Energy Industries Association
An
nu
al
ins
tall
ed
Cap
ac
ity g
iga
wa
tts
Ave
rag
e M
od
ule
Pri
ce
$ / w
att
15
12
9
6
3
0
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Growth in U.S. Wind Generation 2000–2014
Iowa
OklahomaKansas
QAe5771
California
Illinois
Texas
2000 2006 2008 2012
45,000
25,000
35,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
5,000
15,000
0
10,000
2002 2004 2010 2014
Million Kwh
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Outline
The Energy Mix
Electricity & Transportation
Energy Poverty
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Electricity
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
Source: Emerging Trends in Electricity Consumption for Consumer ICT, Peter Corcoran and Andres Andrae (2013) and CIA World Factbook. China/Russia/Canada figures are from 2014.
Data Center Networks Powering Devices Manufacturing
Electricity Use, 2012(Billion KwH)
QAe5585
0
(482)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
(483)
(511)
(540)
(864)
(921)
(1,065)
(3,832)
China
US
IT Sector
Russia
Japan
India
Germany
Canada
Brazil
South Korea
(5,523)
(1,817)
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
Electricity Generation by Fuel
North America120
Europe
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
Asia Pacific
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
120 120
Oil
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Renewables
The Future Electricity Mix
Baselo
ad
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
U.S. Electric Generation Shares (2005-15)
QAe4744Source: EIA
Perc
en
t o
f to
tal
Other
Natural gas
Coal
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 20152006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Nuclear
Renewables
20%
8%
18%
51%
21%
13%
32%
34% 68%
% of
CO2
30%
2%
Fracking!~ 20% CO2
Reduction
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production
QAe4666
Source:
U.S. Energy
Information
Administration
Drilling Productivity
Report regions,
Petroleum Supply
Monthly, Natural
Gas Monthly
Bcf/
d
90
50
40
0
80
20
70
60
30
10
Rest of U.S.
Rest of U.S. Shale
Marcellus Region
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production
QAe4666
Source:
U.S. Energy
Information
Administration
Drilling Productivity
Report regions,
Petroleum Supply
Monthly, Natural
Gas Monthly
Bcf/
d
90
50
40
0
80
20
70
60
30
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US Natural Gas Price ($mcf)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
US Gas Rigs
Rest of U.S.
Rest of U.S. Shale
Marcellus Region
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production
QAe4666
Source:
U.S. Energy
Information
Administration
Drilling Productivity
Report regions,
Petroleum Supply
Monthly, Natural
Gas Monthly
Bcf/
d
90
50
40
0
80
20
70
60
30
10
Rest of U.S.
Rest of U.S. Shale
Marcellus Region
Fracking!
Over 50% of U.S. Gas
Production from Shale
For presentation or publication, reference:
Bureau of Economic Geology 3DRP Shale Resource and Production Project
http://www.beg.utexas.edu/research/programs/shale
Fayetteville
~6,500~13,000
Eagle Ford
~16,500~90,000
Bakken/Three Forks
~18,000~100,000
Haynesville
~6,000~35,000
Marcellus ~10,500~200,000
Barnett~16,500~63,000
Gas OilTcf Bbbl
Original In-Place 3100 450
Tech. Recoverable 700 27
Production to date 70 5
Horizontal wells to date ~ Future wells (base case) ~500,000
Gas Oil
Resource-in-Place
Produced to-date
TRR
~75,000~500,000
Permian Basinin progress
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000
Resources (Tcf)
Pro
du
cti
on
co
st
(2008 $
/Mm
btu
)
Hydrates
15
10
5
0
QAe980Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
Global Consumption
115 Tcfy
~ 300 year total resource
Sour
Arc
tic
De
ep
Wate
r
Shale
Co
al
Bed
Meth
an
e
Co
nve
nti
on
al Tight
Pro
du
ced
Natural Gas Cost of SupplyResources v. Cost
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000
Resources (Tcf)
Pro
du
cti
on
co
st
(2008 $
/Mm
btu
)
Hydrates
15
10
5
0
QAe980Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
Global Consumption
115 Tcfy
Sour
Arc
tic
De
ep
Wate
r
Shale
Co
al
Bed
Meth
an
e
Co
nve
nti
on
al Tight
Pro
du
ced
Natural Gas Cost of SupplyResources v. Cost
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
0 3,000 6,000 12,0009,000 15,000 30,00018,000 21,000 24,000 27,000
Resources (Tcf)
Pro
du
cti
on
co
st
(2008 $
/Mm
btu
)
Hydrates
15
10
5
0
QAe980Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
Global Consumption
115 Tcfy
Sour Arc
tic
De
ep
Wate
r
Shale
Co
al
Bed
Meth
an
e
Co
nve
nti
on
al
Tight
Pro
du
ced
Natural Gas Cost of SupplyResources v. Cost
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Natural Gas Cost of Supply
Resources v. Cost
Dynamics of Price,
Cost, Technology,
Policy and Demand
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
Electricity Generation by Fuel
North America120
Europe
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
Asia Pacific
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
120 120
Oil
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Renewables
The Future Electricity Mix
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Germany Poland Czech Italy UK OtherSpain Netherlands
European Coal Generation
QAe5339
*preliminary
Po
wer
gen
era
tio
n (
TW
h)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
263 262 277 283 274 272 260
137 140 135 138 130 130 129
47 47 44 42 41 41 42
40 45 49 45 43 43 3725 44 55 41 44 53
37
108109
143 131101 76
3223 21
24 25 29 4037
819 841892
860
798 788
694177
173164
157136 132
120
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
GermanyItalyUK OtherSpain Netherlands
European Natural Gas Power Generation
QAe5340
*preliminary
Po
wer
gen
era
tio
n (
TW
h)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
176 147101 97 102 101 146
153145
129 109 94 109119
9289
7970 64 64
81
9586
7357 47 52
53
7468
5655
52 47
53
Coal766
704
586
511461
497
598176
169
147
123103
124
147
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
Electricity Generation by Fuel
North America120
Europe
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
Asia Pacific
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
1980 2005 2030
100
80
60
0
20
40
120 120
Oil
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2010, The outlook for energy: a view to 2030: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Renewables
The Future Electricity Mix
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
QAe5832Source: Economist, National Bureau of Statistics
ChinaEnergy Consumption by Fuel Type
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
02000 06 0802 04 10 12 14 16
Coal
Petroleum
Hydro, nuclear,
and wind power
Natural gas
To
nn
es
of
co
al e
qu
iva
len
t, b
n
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2018
The Future Electricity Mix
50
40
30
20
10
0 Sp
ain
Germ
any
Au
stralia
Italy
Japan
UK
Fran
ce
Nig
eria
Brazil
US
A
Ru
ssia
S.A
frica
Can
ada
Mexico
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Den
mark
Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com
Average national electricity prices (in 2011 US cents/kWh)
41
35
30292826
20191817
121110101088
Data: average prices from 2011 converted at mean exchange rate for that year
Affordable
Available
Reliable
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Transportation
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
The Future Transportation Mix
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day25
20
15
5
10
0
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2013 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, page 20.
2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
EuropeNorth
America
Gasoline
Other
Natural gas
Fuel oilJet fuel
BiodieselDiesel
Ethanol
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
U.S. Crude Oil Production
QAe4665
Source:
U.S. Energy
Information
Administration
Drilling Productivity
Report regions,
Petroleum Supply
Monthly, Natural
Gas Monthly
10
6
4
0
8
2
MM
bb
l/d
Rest of U.S.
Federal Gulf of Mexico
Permian Region
Eagle Ford Region
Bakken Region
Approaching 50% of U.S.
Oil Production from Shale
Fracking!
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Annual US Oil Production
From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2012
Th
ou
san
d b
arr
els
/year
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Growth in Petroleum Production
QAe5569
Year
1.5
2.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Gro
wth
in
petr
ole
um
pro
du
cti
on
(millio
ns b
arr
els
per
day)
http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/04/26/energy_revolutions_h
idden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_110215.html Source: Mark Mills, 2017
China
RussiaSaudi Arabia
Inflation Adjusted WTI Oil Price
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Growth in Petroleum Production
QAe5569
Year
1.5
2.5
2.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Gro
wth
in
petr
ole
um
pro
du
cti
on
(millio
ns b
arr
els
per
day)
U.S.
http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2017/04/26/energy_revolutions_h
idden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_110215.html Source: Mark Mills, 2017
RussiaSaudi Arabia
Inflation Adjusted WTI Oil Price
Permian
Basin
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Other
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
The Future Transportation Mix
Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day25
20
15
5
10
0
ExxonMobil Corporation, 2013 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, page 20.
2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040 2000 2020 2040
EuropeNorth
America
Gasoline
Other
Natural gas
Fuel oilJet fuel
BiodieselDiesel
Ethanol
Asia
Pacific
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2017
Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 2017
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Auto Sales Developing Nations
Rolling 12-month (million)
Brazil
Russia
Thailand
QAe5762
4.5
2.5
3.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
0.5
1.5
0.0
1.0
Mexico
Indonesia
India
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2017
Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 2017
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
30
10
20
5
15
25
USAEU28
Japan
QAe5761
India
Auto Sales Developed Nations
Rolling 12-month (million)
China
Recession
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2017
QAe5893
2011 2014 2015
Global Annual SalesLight-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles (2011 – 2016)
2012 2013 2016
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
Source: Argonne National Laboratory, United States Department of Energy
100,000
An
nu
al
sa
les
(lig
ht
plu
g-i
n
ele
ctr
ic v
eh
icle
s) Canada
Japan
China
Western Europe
United States
~ 1.1%
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com
2020 35 40
Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts
QAe5779
500
25 30
400
300
200
0
600
100
Bloomberg
OPEC
ExxonMobil
2016 2017
Mil
lio
n
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018Tinker 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com
2020 35 40
Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts
QAe5779
500
25 30
400
300
200
0
600
100
Bloomberg
OPEC
ExxonMobil
2016 2017
~10% of Global Vehicle Fleet
Mil
lio
n
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Outline
The Energy Mix
Electricity & Transportation
Energy Poverty
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2016Tinker 2016
Electricity and Poverty
QAe5021Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 2015
Poverty and electricity
access in selected
developing countries,
circles sized by
total population
100
0 40 8020 60 100
80
60
40
20
0
Income % (<$3.10 a day at 2011 PPP†, %)
Ele
ctr
ific
ati
on
rate
2013,
%
Africa
Asia
Latin America
* Bangladesh uses
2005 PPP and $2
a day poverty line
† Purchasing power
parity
Vietnam
China
India
Bangladesh*
Brazil
Nigeria
Tanzania
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
Cameroon
Electricity
Poverty
Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 2017
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2016Tinker 2016
Electricity and Poverty
QAe5021Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 2015
Poverty and electricity
access in selected
developing countries,
circles sized by
total population
100
0 40 8020 60 100
80
60
40
20
0
Income % (<$3.10 a day at 2011 PPP†, %)
Ele
ctr
ific
ati
on
rate
2013,
%
Africa
Asia
Latin America
* Bangladesh uses
2005 PPP and $2
a day poverty line
† Purchasing power
parity
Vietnam
China
India
Bangladesh*
Brazil
Nigeria
Tanzania
Kenya
Uganda
Ethiopia
Cameroon
Electricity
Poverty
Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 2017
Energy does not end poverty.
Poverty cannot be ended without energy.
Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living
United States
Australia
Japan
GermanySouth Korea
RussiaSaudi Arabia
MalaysiaBrazil
Mexico
China
Ecuador
HaitiGhana
Niger
India0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
ELEC
TR
IC P
OW
ER C
ON
SUM
PTI
ON
, KW
H /
CA
P
GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $
Developed
Developing
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Undeveloped
U.S. GDP > 2X
Source: World Bank Databank
Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living
United States
Australia
Japan
GermanySouth Korea
RussiaSaudi Arabia
MalaysiaBrazil
Mexico
China
Ecuador
HaitiGhana
Niger
India0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
ELEC
TR
IC P
OW
ER C
ON
SUM
PTI
ON
, KW
H /
CA
P
GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $
Developed
Developing
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Undeveloped
U.S. GDP > 2X
Source: World Bank Databank
> 3 billion
people
Source: World Bank Databank
United States
Australia
Japan
GermanySouth Korea
RussiaSaudi Arabia
MalaysiaBrazil
Mexico
China
Ecuador
HaitiGhana
Niger
India0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
ELEC
TR
IC P
OW
ER C
ON
SUM
PTI
ON
, KW
H P
ER
CA
PIT
A
GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Source: World Bank Databank
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 2017
Source: World Bank Databank
United States
Australia
Japan
GermanySouth Korea
RussiaSaudi Arabia
MalaysiaBrazil
Mexico
China
Ecuador
HaitiGhana
Niger
India0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
ELEC
TR
IC P
OW
ER C
ON
SUM
PTI
ON
, KW
H P
ER
CA
PIT
A
GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Source: World Bank Databank
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality
Switch4.5 billion
Switch On3 billion
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 2017
Source: World Bank Databank
United States
Australia
Japan
GermanySouth Korea
RussiaSaudi Arabia
MalaysiaBrazil
Mexico
China
Ecuador
HaitiGhana
Niger
India0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
ELEC
TR
IC P
OW
ER C
ON
SUM
PTI
ON
, KW
H P
ER
CA
PIT
A
GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Source: World Bank Databank
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality
Switch4.5 billion
Switch On3 billion
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 2017
It’s Time to Educate & Power the People
Source: World Bank Databank
United States
Australia
Japan
GermanySouth Korea
RussiaSaudi Arabia
MalaysiaBrazil
Mexico
China
Ecuador
HaitiGhana
Niger
India0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
ELEC
TR
IC P
OW
ER C
ON
SUM
PTI
ON
, KW
H P
ER
CA
PIT
A
GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15
Source: World Bank Databank
Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality
Switch4.5 billion
Switch On3 billion
1990 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ’95 ‘96 ’97 ’98 ‘99 2000 ‘01 ‘02 ’03 ‘04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ’09 2010 ‘11 ‘12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16Photo Tinker, Ecuador, 2017
It’s Time to Educate & Power the People
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2016
Keep IT in the Ground. Keep THEM in Poverty.
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2016
Environment
Economy
Energy
Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013
The
Three Es
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2016
Academia/NGO
Government
Industry
The
Radical
Middle
Source: Tinker, EARTH, 2013
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2016
Political
Markets
Research
Regulation
Secure
Energy
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
1. Energy poverty a primary global challenge
2. Energy security drives energy policy
3. Energy efficiency becomes strategic
4. Impact of batteries/renewables quantified
5. Electric Vehicles grow and plateau
6. Renewables grow, requiring massive storage
7. Natural gas grows for electricity generation
8. Oil remains primary fuel for transportation
Global Energy Trends
Tinker, 2015Tinker 2018
Thanks for what You do…