The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Premature Human...
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Transcript of The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Premature Human...
The Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Particulate Matter Air Pollution on
Premature Human Mortality
Presentation to CMASOctober 7, 2008
Susan Casper, J. Jason WestUNC - Chapel Hill
Larry HorowitzNOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ
Daniel TongScience and Technology Corporation, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC
Previous Study
800,000 annual mortalities due to urban PM
Cohen, et al. (2004) Urban Air Pollution, In Comparative quantification of health risks. Geneva, WHO.
Objectives
• Estimate global burden of human mortality due to anthropogenic ozone and PM
• Use model approach to improve on previous methods– Rural areas– Isolation of anthropogenic pollution
Approach – Health Impact Functions
Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
Baseline mortality rate
Exposed population
Concentration-response factor Change in
exposure concentration
Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
Concentration-Response Factors (CRF)
Source: Bell et al., 2004Source: Pope et al., 2002
Concentration (x)
ln R
R
ln RR
ΔX
For ozone, stronger effects captured by daily time-series studies:
For PM, stronger effects captured by cohort studies:
xt
Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
Δ annual average daily 8-hr max. O3 (2000-preindustrial)
Δ annual average PM (2000-preindustrial)
Concentrations
MOZART-2 surface data from Horowitz (2006)
Δ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * PopΔ Mortality = [1 - exp(-β * ΔX) ] * Y0 * Pop
All-cause
Lung Cancer
Cardiopulmonary
Baseline Mortality Rates
WHO, 2004
Annual Ozone Mortalities
Best estimate: 282,000 to 362,000 cardiopulmonary mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 135,000 – 551,000.
Annual Ozone Mortalities
Non-accidental
Cardiopulmonary
Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people
Ozone mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters
Meta-analyses: Bell et al. 2005; Ito et al. 2005; Levy et al. 2005
Annual PM Mortalities
Best estimate: 1.3 to 2.4 million cardiopulmonary and lung cancer mortalities with uncertainty ranging from 465,000 –3.8 million.
Annual PM Mortalities
All-cause
Cardiopulmonary
Lung Cancer
Mortalities per 1000 km2 Mortalities per 1E6 people
PM mortality estimates are sensitive to HIF parameters
Comparison to Previous Study• Recall… Cohen et al. (2004) found 800,000
mortalities due to urban PM
891,000 (299,000-1.4 million)
Including rural population and capturing urban peaks would suggest even larger numbers of mortalities
SummaryOzone PM
Cardiopulmonary Mortalities 282,000 to 362,000 (135,000-551,000)
1.2 - 2.2 million (429,000-3.5 million)
Lung Cancer Mortalities n/a111,000 - 192,000 (36,000-282,000)
Best Estimate 282,000 to 362,000 (135,000-551,000)
1.3 - 2.4 million(465,000-3.8 million)
% of All Global Mortalities 0.5 - 0.6(0.2 – 0.9)
2.2 - 4.0(0.7 – 6.3)
• Results highly dependent on assumptions– CRF– Threshold
• High density of mortalities in densely populated areas, but some in less populated areas